current-events-economics-politics

Population, Food, Oil … Collision?

World population and growth

Factoring the net birth minus death rate in the world each year, the annual increase to world population is about 75 million people. The current world population is about 6,900,000,000, or 6.9 billion.

Annually, we add to the planet the equivalent population of any of the following scenarios,

• New York City (9 of them!)
• Los Angeles (20 of them!)
• Chicago (27 of them!)
• San Francisco (94 of them!)
• Boston (117 of them!)
• Unites States of America (25 percent of the country!)

When you think about it, this is a startling number. And that’s in just one year!

Developing, Emerging Nations, and their Demands

Many regions of the world are, and have been undergoing an increase in standard of living, particularly the transitioning, emerging and developing nations, some of which include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa, all part of a list of about 150 nations that the IMF has listed in this category.

These nations are very quickly consuming more and resources (food and energy) to keep pace with increasing population and the demands of a higher standard of living, on top of the already high demands of ‘developed’ nations.

Energy, Food, Sustainability

Now stop and think about this one for a minute… between the fact that each year the Earth is burdened with the additional needs of new humans that would fill the equivalent of 117 cities of Boston (1/4 the population of the entire United States), coupled with the additional annual needs of all the world’s emerging nations whose population standards of living are increasing, how in the world can we keep up with these enormous demands of more food and energy, each and every year?

The answer is, I don’t think that we can. I believe that it is entirely unsustainable.

The food and agriculture systems are already maximized to the hilt in order to deliver just-in-time food to your grocer’s shelves. Feeding 75 million additional people each year is a tremendous undertaking, when you think about it.

What about oil and energy? As you know, oil is the underlying ‘enabler’ of just about everything that we take for granted today. Oil is ‘built in’ to nearly everything that you see, touch, eat, drink, and in nearly every product that you purchase.

How can the world’s oil producers keep pumping more and more oil to keep up with the increasing demands of developed and developing nations, as well as the burgeoning population that is adding 75 million new people each year? The answer is, they can’t! Ever heard of Peak Oil?

Peak Oil, Food Shortages, Higher Prices

There is no doubt in my mind that we are reaching the point of maximum sustainability, and in fact, may have already passed that point. When you think about it, while the annual demands for energy, food, and water are increasing so much, while the resources that are demanded are in limited supply… something has to give, sooner or later.

Peak oil. Food supply shortages. Higher priced food. Fresh water. There is only so much to go around.

One could argue that there are untapped resources of oil out there. But the thing is, the easy oil has already been tapped. The rest will continue to cost more to access, just like the 1949 gold rush in California where initially the ’49ers’ were picking gold up off the ground, but eventually had to dig deep into the earth to extract, all at much higher costs.

It wasn’t that long ago when so many families lived on a 5 acre farm (or bigger), and were largely self-sufficient, because they had to be. The development of the modern world allowed most of them to escape the labor of managing a farm and to instead go on and work within the system, a system that has brought great things to the world, while also having built itself an enormous bubble of dependency, one that just very well may burst one day.

Are you ready?

Diversify to be prepared

What can I do to be better prepared?

Adjust your situation so that you are more diversified when it comes to energy and food, for starters.

Consider having more than one source of heating for your home. Instead of relying solely on an oil-fired furnace, how about adding a wood stove?

Instead of relying 100 percent on the electricity that is fed to your home, consider adding some solar panels and/or wind turbines to produce some of your electrical needs.

Instead of depending entirely upon fully stocked grocery store shelves, consider growing some of your own food and learning how to preserve it for later.

It is a similar philosophy to that of investing. Diversify. Think about the things that you rely upon 100 percent, and then consider alternative ways of achieving those needs. Be able to adapt.

Are you ready?

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Lieberman Crafts Internet Kill-Switch Legislation

In case you haven’t read about this already, those of you in the U.S. may be interested to know that a new congressional bill to enable an Internet Kill Switch for the U.S. has been crafted by Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-Connecticut), Susan Collins (R-Maine), and Tom Carper (D-Delaware).

Yes, the bill is actually nicknamed, ‘Kill Switch’.

Apparently, rather than trusting businesses to continue and maintain their own cyber-security (which of course they already do today), evidently there are those in U.S. government who would rather maintain an internet shut-off switch which they say is needed to defend the economic infrastructure from a cyberterrorist attack.

Quoted in USA Today, “This is all about control, an attempt to control every aspect of our existence,” says Christopher Feudo, a cybersecurity expert who is chairman of SecurityFusion Solutions. “I consider it an attack on our personal right of free speech. Look what recently occurred in Egypt.”

The bill has free-speech advocates and privacy experts howling over the prospect of a government agency quelling the communication of hundreds of millions of people.

From usatoday.com, computer-security expert Ira Winkler, a staunch advocate of the legislation, counters, “The fact that people are complaining about this fact is grossly ignorant of the real world. The fact that critical infrastructure elements are even accessible to the Internet is the worst part to begin with.”

A 1934 federal law that created the Federal Communications Commission allows the president to “authorize the use or control” of communications outlets during moments of emergency of “public peril or disaster.” The Lieberman-led bill would be considered a specific extension of that and let the nation’s chief executive prioritize communications on the Internet.

A provision in the bill lets the president take limited control during an emergency and decide restrictions. “It, essentially, gives the president a loaded gun,” says CEO Michael Fertik, a lawyer with expertise in constitutional law and Internet privacy law.

Questions

Is this more ‘big brother’, or ‘big sis’ at work to control more U.S. liberties?

Is this more about information control and establishing hard interception points to filter-gather data as it flows among U.S. individuals and business?

Is the Internet a ‘national asset’ to be ‘nationalized’?

How would they determine who-what-where of the specific internet-provider connections where the Internet connects to infrastructure?

Do the U.S. legislatures and politicians have the technical savvy to employ such a technical bill?

Who defines, and what will be the definition of an ‘emergency’, at which time the president can throw the switch?

full story at usatody.com

U.S. Ambassador Recall, Prelude to IMF Announcement?

A report from CNNMoney.com states, “The International Monetary Fund issued a report Thursday on a possible replacement for the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The IMF said Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, could help stabilize the global financial system.”


There has been wide speculation in the blogosphere regarding the recent recall of all U.S. Ambassadors back to Washington, an unprecedented move that has never happened before. While the main stream media barely mentioned the event, rumors abound as to the ‘real’ reason for the summit.

The ‘official’ State Department explanation was to discuss a new program named ‘QDDR’, Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review, a program that “provides a blueprint for elevating American “civilian power” to better advance our national interests and to be a better partner to the U.S. military.”

The QDDR has apparently been in the making for awhile, and some suspect that the U.S. Ambassador recall used the QDDR as an excuse to meet for something entirely different, something that must be so gravely important, to have recalled every Ambassador back to Washington.

A new international reserve currency could certainly be ‘it’.


Other countries are forced to purchase certain goods through the U.S. dollar (particularly Oil), and are exposed to the volatility and weakness of the dollar as the U.S. obligations continue to compound and spiral out of control.

SDRs represent potential claims on the currencies of IMF members. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF said, “Over time, there may also be a role for the SDR to contribute to a more stable international monetary system“.

In addition to serving as a reserve currency, the IMF also proposed creating SDR-denominated bonds, which could reduce central banks’ dependence on U.S. Treasuries.

During June of 2010, a United Nations world economic survey report said “A new global reserve system could be created, one that no longer relies on the United States dollar as the single major reserve currency”. (Reuters) Scrap dollar as sole reserve currency


It is not known if this IMF announcement is the ‘real’ underlying reason for the recent Ambassador recall, but it does seem plausible.


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Oil Tanker Pirated while heading to U.S.

For the second time in two days, an oil tanker, this time a super tanker, has been pirated, this time in the vast ocean waters of the Arabian Sea (Indian Ocean), about 200 miles off the coast of Oman.

The one-thousand foot long ‘Irene SL’ loaded with 2 million barrels of oil, was headed to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region for offload when pirates hijacked the tanker.


The pirates have increasingly been working far offshore, in the largely unsecured ocean waters away from the Gulf of Aden which is notably patrolled by warships.

The location and whereabouts is currently unknown or unreported of the Greek tanker, which has a crew of 25. Pirates historically have been paid millions in ransom for the safe return of oil tankers which themselves can be filled with millions of barrels of oil worth as much as two hundred million dollars.


Reported from msnbc.com, Cmdr. Susie Thomson, spokeswoman for the multinational Combined Maritime Forces fighting piracy in the area, said the 1,000-foot-long tanker was hijacked 220 miles off Oman and was likely to have been attacked by Somali pirates. “We can only speculate as to where the ship is being taken.”

Joe Angelo, managing director of INTERTANKO, an association whose members own the majority of the world’s tanker fleet, said to Reuters, “The piracy situation is now spinning out of control into the entire Indian Ocean, if piracy in the Indian Ocean is left unabated, it will strangle these crucial shipping lanes with the potential to severely disrupt oil flows to the U.S. and to the rest of the world.”


The sudden escalation in oil tanker piracy if left unchecked will disrupt western oil supply demands and could lead to higher oil prices. Today’s oil tanker piracy of the ‘Irene SL’ amounts to one-fifth of the U.S. daily crude imports.

Marine Landing Force, Ismailia Egypt

Based on the fact that the USS Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group has sped it’s way into the Suez canal, and is now waiting in Suez Canal’s ‘Great Bitter Lake’ nearby Ismailia Egypt, is telling in that it’s specific function is to carry Marine’s and equipment designed for beach landing and land deployment operations.

While the situation in Egypt continues to broil, a recent surge of anti-Mubarak protests and violence is again threatening the overthrow and coup of the Mubarak regime.

“A fresh surge of popular anti-Mubarak protest ripping across Egypt Tuesday, Feb. 8 has brought the country closer to a military coup to stem the anarchy than at any time since the street caught fire on Jan. 25.” reports debka.com.

They go on to say, “The biggest Arab country with a population of 82 million is on the verge of breakdown as large sections of it’s economic machinery are shut down by spreading strikes and workers’ revolts against managements appointed by the Mubarak regime and Vice President Omar’s Suleiman’s leadership.”

According to xinhuanet.com, “Washington has apparently shifted its stance on Egypt in recent days, with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaking of supporting the Egyptian government to ensure a quick and orderly power transition.”

In a phone conversation with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia over Egypt unrest on Wednesday, U.S. President Barack Obama called for “immediate steps toward an orderly transition” in the most populous nation of the Arab world.

The question is, what are the intentions of the U.S. government and military, given that thousands of Marines are now offshore and could amphibiously launch at a moments notice…

Could this be a combat operation?

Or is it a non-combat operation, to pull out and evacuate certain people should it become necessary?

More than ever, the Middle East is a dangerous powder-keg, where just like in a chess game, any move of a game piece could suddenly and expectantly result in ‘game over’, or in this case, could light the fuse.

The USS KEARSARGE’s principal mission is deployment, landing and support of a Marine landing force anywhere in the world.

The USS KEARSARGE’s armament suite includes

• the NATO Sea Sparrow point defense missile systems
• the Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) defense system
• the PHALANX close-in weapon system
• 25mm chain guns and Electronic Warfare (EW) protection systems for defense against anti-ship cruise missiles, aircraft and surface vessels.

The USS Kearsarge also lands tanks, trucks, artillery, and the complete logistic support needed to supply an assault.

Update, 10-Feb, from ABC News, “Egypt’s Army Chief of Staff waded into the jubilant crowd of protesters in Egypt’s Tahrir Square today and told them cryptically, “All your demands will be met tonight.” “You will know soon,” the minister said.

Update, 10-Feb, from Reuters, President Hosni Mubarak provoked rage… refused to step down…

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