Population, Food, Oil … Collision?
February 21, 2011, Submitted by: Ken Tweet
World population and growth
Factoring the net birth minus death rate in the world each year, the annual increase to world population is about 75 million people. The current world population is about 6,900,000,000, or 6.9 billion.
Annually, we add to the planet the equivalent population of any of the following scenarios,
- New York City (9 of them!)
- Los Angeles (20 of them!)
- Chicago (27 of them!)
- San Francisco (94 of them!)
- Boston (117 of them!)
- Unites States of America (25 percent of the country!)
When you think about it, this is a startling number. And that’s in just one year!
Developing, Emerging Nations, and their Demands
Many regions of the world are, and have been undergoing an increase in standard of living, particularly the transitioning, emerging and developing nations, some of which include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa, all part of a list of about 150 nations that the IMF has listed in this category.
These nations are very quickly consuming more and resources (food and energy) to keep pace with increasing population and the demands of a higher standard of living, on top of the already high demands of ‘developed’ nations.
Energy, Food, Sustainability
Now stop and think about this one for a minute… between the fact that each year the Earth is burdened with the additional needs of new humans that would fill the equivalent of 117 cities of Boston (1/4 the population of the entire United States), coupled with the additional annual needs of all the world’s emerging nations whose population standards of living are increasing, how in the world can we keep up with these enormous demands of more food and energy, each and every year?
The answer is, I don’t think that we can. I believe that it is entirely unsustainable.
The food and agriculture systems are already maximized to the hilt in order to deliver just-in-time food to your grocer’s shelves. Feeding 75 million additional people each year is a tremendous undertaking, when you think about it.
What about oil and energy? As you know, oil is the underlying ‘enabler’ of just about everything that we take for granted today. Oil is ‘built in’ to nearly everything that you see, touch, eat, drink, and in nearly every product that you purchase.
How can the world’s oil producers keep pumping more and more oil to keep up with the increasing demands of developed and developing nations, as well as the burgeoning population that is adding 75 million new people each year? The answer is, they can’t! Ever heard of Peak Oil?
Peak Oil, Food Shortages, Higher Prices
There is no doubt in my mind that we are reaching the point of maximum sustainability, and in fact, may have already passed that point. When you think about it, while the annual demands for energy, food, and water are increasing so much, while the resources that are demanded are in limited supply… something has to give, sooner or later.
Peak oil. Food supply shortages. Higher priced food. Fresh water. There is only so much to go around.
One could argue that there are untapped resources of oil out there. But the thing is, the easy oil has already been tapped. The rest will continue to cost more to access, just like the 1949 gold rush in California where initially the ’49ers’ were picking gold up off the ground, but eventually had to dig deep into the earth to extract, all at much higher costs.
It wasn’t that long ago when so many families lived on a 5 acre farm (or bigger), and were largely self-sufficient, because they had to be. The development of the modern world allowed most of them to escape the labor of managing a farm and to instead go on and work within the system, a system that has brought great things to the world, while also having built itself an enormous bubble of dependency, one that just very well may burst one day.
Are you ready?
Diversify to be prepared
What can I do to be better prepared?
Adjust your situation so that you are more diversified when it comes to energy and food, for starters.
Consider having more than one source of heating for your home. Instead of relying solely on an oil-fired furnace, how about adding a wood stove?
Instead of relying 100 percent on the electricity that is fed to your home, consider adding some solar panels and/or wind turbines to produce some of your electrical needs.
Instead of depending entirely upon fully stocked grocery store shelves, consider growing some of your own food and learning how to preserve it for later.
It is a similar philosophy to that of investing. Diversify. Think about the things that you rely upon 100 percent, and then consider alternative ways of achieving those needs. Be able to adapt.
Are you ready?
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The current food crises and the oil prices are man made.
The drop in the dollar value, the insane and criminal conversion of massive foodcrops into bio fuels and the recent export ban from Russia together with countries buying more food for security and price stabilization plus massive speculation have boosted food prices.
Obama’s State of the Union where he announced an 80% replacement of fossil fuels by bio fuels is nothing more but a death sentence for 1.5 billion people short term.
We don’t have peal oil by a long shot.
THERE IS NO ENERGY SHORTAGE:
Current global oil consumption is approx. 3 billion barrel per year.
(One metric ton = 7 barrel)
New oil finds 2009
approx. 10 billion barrel
New oil finds 2010
approx. 50 billion barrel
http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/N-Dakota-New-Oil-Finds-Rivals-Bakken
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/24/cairn-confirms-greenland-oil-find
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11906367
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/major-new-oil-find-in-north-sea-1.1050848
http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2011/01/08/2010-was-a-very-good-year-for-new-oil-finds/
New oil finds 2011
Trinidad
http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display/6256339022/articles/oil-gas-journal/exploration-development-2/discoveries/20100/february-2011/trinidad-gets_rare.html
Sudan
http://www.sudantribune.com/South-Sudan-expects-new-oil-finds,37613
As you can see that even in a relative bad year like 2009 we still find over three times our annual oil consumption.
2010 with over 50 billion barrel almost 14 times our annual consumption.
Please have a look at the last three graph’s at the presentation from Burt Rutan about Peak Oil graph and the real, non to scare graph.
http://rps3.com/Files/Ochkosh_2010_talks/Electric%20flight%20keynote.pdf
What is killing people today is the Green Transformation of our Western societies.
It is economic sabotage masqueraded by a solution for a non existing problem.
In fact all the green technologies only accelerate the use of our resources.
For example:
The by the EU mandated CO2 Sequestration will increase the use of coal by 50%.
A single wind farm contains the resources for which we can build 2 nuclear plants.
The nuclear plants deliver base load electricity, the wind farm at best causes black outs with no power under high pressure area conditions when there is no wind.
High pressure area’s are hot in the summer and cold in the winter.
That’s when we need electricity most.
Electric cars will force us to increase the amount of metal to replace the fuel tank.
This means we need to burn more oil.
Just read this article and see how crazy Obama is when he tells us we will have 1 million electric cars on the road by 2015.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/251134-gaining-perspective-on-electric-vehicles-and-the-natural-resource-cliff?source=marketwatch
@RdH, The point of the article has not to do with ‘Greenie’ issues – we’re not spouting that religion here… but instead, to suggest the notion that greater demands and much of the ‘new’ oil is the more difficult oil (more expensive oil) to retrieve – shale, sand, rock. ‘If’ much of this oil is not extracted due to political reasons, then it might as well not be there.
It only further demonstrates the good sense it makes for individuals to stop relying so much on big business, and ‘dumb’ governments to provide us 100 percent of our needs.
I entirely agree with you regarding bio fuels – corn – which could instead be used to feed people.
The mention of solar panels and wind generators was intended to relate to personal use. That is, mounted on your own home – not corporate wind farms, etc… This site’s underlying them is about personal responsibility, self sufficiency, and many topics of risk awareness of ‘happenings’ out there that could threaten these ideals, such as in this case – huge numbers of increasing population coupled with greater energy and food demands from developing nations – which will lead to higher prices, possible shortages, and maybe even more wars as we all fight over the scraps…
This will open your eyes:
Matt Ridley: When ideas have sex
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLHh9E5ilZ4
We now are in the ban of the insane idea’s dreamed up by the Club of Rome that have infected the minds of our elite.
@RdH, Interesting video, logical and sensible explanation of how we humans have progressed by trading and exchanging ideas over time. Common sense stuff. Like I said in the post, “a system that has brought great things to the world” (Too bad there’s a tax man in the middle of all those trades
There were only two statements that I disagreed with in the video.
1. “Self sufficiency – we call that poverty these days”
As though the philosophy of someone who is striving to be more self reliant as an individual and less dependent upon ‘the system’ , is a bad thing. Fact is, hardly anyone has the skill to be entirely self sufficient – and no doubt that the 100 percent self sufficient life would be very physically laborious, difficult, painful, and in many ways mundane, perhaps not possible at all – and definitely would come with a shorter lifespan. While I do believe there are those that imagine living and functioning entirely by themselves, I’ll bet that most preparedness minded folks know perfectly well that a reasonable life depends on community and others in order to reach a balance of wellness. Striving for self sufficiency or self reliance is a quest like striving for perfection. You’ll never be perfect. It’s an insurance policy. For many, it is a satisfying journey. I have no doubt that someone living the lifestyle of the typical elite, with their own definitions of happiness, fulfillment and Fiat worth, will probably look down their nose at someone who may be spending time doing barbaric tasks of a common peasant – growing a garden – raising livestock – getting their hands dirty for themselves rather than all for the collective machine of ‘the system’, while at the same time that person may be quite happy and at peace with them-self, and value different things in life that are of worth. Just a different mindset. And of course there are many people in-between these two somewhat extreme points of view – that’s what makes the world go round.
2. “No one person knows how to make the whole thing”
I understand the principal that the speaker is trying to point out, but I believe there are plenty of people who do know how to make the whole thing, so to speak. There is a fundamental difference in philosophy between someone who entirely believes and has complete trust in a system that has countless mindless moving parts (the speaker in the video seems to liken it to individuals on the assembly line doing their own mindless task for the whole), and someone who believes they see risks in such a system that appears to have grown too large and precarious with greed and massive debt.
I do agree with you that the minds of our elite may indeed be ‘infected’
ken (Modern Survival Blog) says:
February 22, 2011 at 7:52 am
@RdH, The point of the article has not to do with ‘Greenie’ issues – we’re not spouting that religion here… but instead, to suggest the notion that greater demands and much of the ‘new’ oil is the more difficult oil (more expensive oil) to retrieve – shale, sand, rock. ‘If’ much of this oil is not extracted due to political reasons, then it might as well not be there”.
Ken, thanks for your response.
I know, you run the modern survival blog.
However, your statement that a growing world population is no longer sustainable is a typical “Club of Rome” = Environmentalist point of view.
I posted my comment because that view is based on falsehoods which are pushed by the Club of Rome, the environmental movement and the UN for many years.
The reality is that our planet can support much more people than the current 6.6 billion.
The reality is that ever more people move from the land to the cities.
Only 3% of the available land mass is urbanized and modern agricultural technologies can feed much more people than we feed today.
The problem is that we currently face a frontal attack on our Western societies by the Globalists who have decided to destroy Western civilization.
As for the oil.
The ‘easy to get’ oil as we find it in Saudi Arabia comes with costs between 1.5 and 3.00 US dollar per barrel.
The most expensive oil retrieved from the tar oil sands in Canada comes with costs of 13 US dollar per barrel.
Deep sea drilling comes at a price somewhere between 6.00 and 8.00 US dollar per barrel, depending on the location.
Since we retrieve oil from the North Sea and the Gulf drilling technology has revolutionized our capacity to retrieve oil from places not possible ten years ago. And the costs are going down, not up.
Another huge factor is the development in geological survey of potential oil fields.
In the sixties and seventies only one in 33 drill holes struck oil (or gas).
Today this score has been raised to one in every three bore holes.
New technology a.o from Fugro will soon bring the number to one in every 2 drill holes.
Also in the field of oil and gas processing technologies much progress has been achieved.
Shell Qatar for example is producing sulfa free diesel oil and jet fuel from natural gas.
New processing technologies for refineries allow us to process almost any class of oil.
The costs is not the problem since there is a growing price difference between sweet crude and ‘sour crude’.
This price difference is big enough to make it commercial attractive to process even the heaviest sour crude’s.
Besides oil and natural gas we have developed excellent techniques in the field of coal to liquid technologies that deliver excellent sulfa free cokes for electricity generation and excellent gasoline for automotive applications.
The past ten years we have developed new technologies that brought us shale gas and Japan has developed the techniques to commercially explore the methane clathrates.
In short, as long as we have free people and free minds operating in free markets, we will never see the day we lack energy. The truth is that as long as we have rock, we have power.
Governments denying their populations access to affordable energy are not our governments.
They have become our enemies. Period.
“It only further demonstrates the good sense it makes for individuals to stop relying so much on big business, and ‘dumb’ governments to provide us 100 percent of our needs.”
I am afraid you’re too late with that remark.
We currently have a Global GDP of 60 trillion US dollars.
But the amount of derivatives and CDS’s has continued to grow to the amount of 1400 trillion US dollar.
This is over 200.000 US dollar for every person on the planet.
Most of these derivatives and CDS’s have been traded OTC (Over The Counter) and therefore are not in the books.
This is one of the reasons why Fanny Mae and Freddy mack still exist.
The potential exposure and the question who owes them is the sword of Damocles still hanging over the markets.
Fortunately the past elections have caused a stop on Obama’s Agenda and a role back of his policies.
The key to a monetary solution lies with the Federal reserve, the EU Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
For the US there is a great plan for a new bank system aimed to railroad the Federal Reserve.
If we could railroad the Federal reserve and return to an honest banking system controlled by the States we have a new perspective. We would also and all Federal taxes.
Such a step decapitates the UN and the EU Monetary fund both relying on the Federal reserve.
If they collapse the European countries can return to their old currencies and the Globalist takeover is blocked.
Once again the future of the world is in the hands of the people of the USA.
I know the plan will work but it has to be executed.
@Ken, about the video
I agree with your remarks.
1. I too disagree with the remark “self sufficiency, we call it poverty today”
I am self sufficient to a high level and believe me, with poverty this has nothing to do.
2. “No one person knows how to make the whole thing”
I build my own airplane from scratch which defies the statement and I am not alone.
Besides that I build my own generator taking the parts from a crashed car and an electric forklift. The generator runs on propane and I also converted my cars to propane.
I have two big tanks in the garden and installed an electric pump so I can fuel my cars at home.
I use the propane for hot water and central heating but this winter (very cold and snowy) I used wood to heat the house which I retrieved from the woods last summer after we were hit by two storms that downed lots of trees.
I love an open fire and it gave me an opportunity to test how long I can do with a full tank of gas.
Where I live propane is relative cheap compared to oil and gasoline.
Still, the problem is way TOO many people! Why in this day and age, do some misguided people insist on having large familes? is it because it makes them feel like a big shot or something? Or because they are lonely? or because they have low paying jobs? or because they are just plain stupid? In 1900, the population of the USA was around 90 million, now it’s 310 million. By 2040, it’s suppose to be 400 million, then by 2065, 500 million! Where are all the jobs and houses going to come from for all these people?
I think there will be a point where it just becomes too much, no jobs, high unemployed, high birth rate, oil prices too high (because of speculators in New York City commodity markets), and things will just start to crumble, like a dam with a crack, slowly, then a total collapse!
A survival retreat, away from large cities is the best one can hope to wait things out.