2011 EarthQuake Statistics, YTD method
February 8, 2011, Submitted by: Ken Tweet
Statistics can be analyzed in quite a number of ways, many of which are neither right nor wrong, but simply different ways of looking at the data.
Similarly, while using USGS earthquake data, we can choose to view statistics in a number of ways. One interesting method is to view year-to-date statistics rather than using a rolling time frame (e.g. the past 12 months, etc…).
The USGS publishes statistical earthquake data, which we will use going back to the year 1990.
Annual Average number of earthquakes since 1990
Magnitude 8+ (1)
Magnitude 7 – 7.9 (14)
Magnitude 6 – 6.9 (134)
Magnitude 5 – 5.9 (1,319)
First, we let 30 days go by so as to avoid an unreasonable view of early fluctuations. Naturally, the further into the year, the more reasonable the viewpoint.
For example, since the average number of magnitude 7 – 7.9 earthquakes are 14.3 per year, how reasonable is it to say that we have a trend if we have already had 4 in this magnitude range, up through day number 39 of the year? This results in a YTD statistic, 262 percent of average! This is actually the present situation today.
Method
14.3 per year = 0.03914 per day (14.3/365)
Today’s date, 8-Feb-2011, is the 39′th day of the year
39 times 0.03914 equals 1.526 (average number of mag.7 quakes up through day 39)
4 divided by 1.526 equals 2.62 (2.62 times the average, or 262% of avg.)
Although the magnitude 7 earthquakes are today 262 percent of the average, and while it does raise an eyebrow, the average will drop to 148 percent if we do not get another magnitude 7 quake for another 30 days, etc…
You see, as we proceed further into the year, we could begin to draw more reasonable conclusions as to being above or below average, although it is an interesting way to look at the data, even early on.
Up to date statistics using this method will be kept on this site (left sidebar) throughout the year. Let’s see how much shaking will be going on…
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I love following the earthquake progress avg during the year. Thanks.
Here is my prediction for 2011 (note based on no scientific knowledge at all)
8+ : 2
7-7.9 : 18
6-6.9 : 114
5-5.9 : 1,517
@CK_79, Good Guess… I wonder if there are odds on such things in Las Vegas
Let me start with the simple fact, of the earth is forever changing! But I will admit it is alarming at how fast it is changing now, I know we are headed for a huge change, We have been since the last one, everyday we move forward we are closer. But we all know the Gov. does in fact hide things from us. So all you have to do is follow your gut instincts, that is how man has survived for many years and through all kinds of changes. There is alot of disinformation out there, do you own research and you will find the path to truth! Good Luck and stay safe!
Hectic!!
Difference in the between day 68 and 72
8+ : 1
7-7.9 : 2
6-6.9 : 30
5-5.9 : 166
If this continues i will have to alter my prediction slightly :/
I’ve done some digging as I heard, through another source, that earthquakes were on the rise.
Assuming I can trust the data on Wikipaedia, and since 1905 all 8+ eartquakes have been properly recorded, here is what I have come up with. (in simple terms)
Magnitude: 8 to 9 from 1905: 29, that’s average of three a decade.
1900 to 1910:4
1911 to 1920:1
1921 to 1930:2
1931 to 1940:4
1941 to 1950:7
1951 to 1960:1
1961 to 1970:5
1971 to 1980:0
1981 to 1990:1
1991 to 2000:4
But from 2001 to 2010 there has been 12.
In the 20th Century there were three Magnitude 9+ earthquakes:1952, 1960 and 1964.
But again from 2001 to 2010 there has been 3.
Seeing how the three 9+ quakes in the twentieth century were grouped within 12 years, the same grouping this century wouldn’t be surprising, but the 8+ quake average suggests, perhaps something is up, is this a statistical glitch?
Yar…. Half way through the year and we almost have received the average number of quakes… Makes one wonder. will we receive double the avg. this year?
Even though lots of quakes were aftershocks resulting from the Mag. 9 Japan earthquake, historically speaking, these types of aftershocks are factored-in to the historical numbers that I’m comparing to. So, yes it seems we’re in for quite a year!