Why Are 2010 Earthquakes Up 51 Percent
May 25, 2010, Submitted by: Ken TweetPermalink
The number of magnitude 5.0 to 6.9 worldwide earthquakes are showing a significant increase so far this year during 2010, and are up 51 percent compared with the same range and time span of earthquakes since the year 1900, as of this independent analysis, 25-May-2010.
The number of magnitude 7.0 to 8.9 worldwide earthquakes appear to be on track, or slightly increased from historical averages.
Magnitude 4.9 or less was not analyzed partly because they generally cause little or no damage. One could make a logical argument that earthquake detection technologies of the early 1900′s were not what they were decades later, and certainly not as advanced as today, therefore skewing the numbers. That is a valid argument. This would be particularly true when it comes to detecting and recording relatively small earthquakes which require higher sensitivity through more advanced technology. This is partly why I chose not to compare earthquakes below magnitude 5.0. Earthquakes above this level were fairly easy to detect, even a century ago.
The data used in this analysis has been collected from the USGS (United States Geological Survey) going back to to the year 1900. I have averaged the number of earthquakes since 1900 in each magnitude range, and have also averaged the same data over the last 10 years. I then compared this data with the current earthquake statistics so far in 2010.
Earthquakes of magnitude 5 – 5.9 have increased by 39 percent (139% of normal) compared with same range of earthquakes over the last 10 years.
Earthquakes of magnitude 5 – 5.9 have increased by 63 percent (163% of normal) compared with same range of earthquakes since the year 1900.
Earthquakes of magnitude 6 – 6.9 have increased by 30 percent (130% of normal) compared with same range of earthquakes over the last 10 years.
Earthquakes of magnitude 6 – 6.9 have increased by 40 percent (140% of normal) compared with same range of earthquakes since the year 1900.
Earth changes are apparently at work as the earth’s major tectonic plates move, shift, slip and grind against each other while floating on top of ‘the mantle’ of semi-fluid magma and hot rock that comprises most of the earth’s volume.
The USGS website acknowledges that earthquakes above magnitude 7 have remained fairly constant. They also site that the number of seismogram stations has increased significantly, along with faster communications.
This is true and logical, however in their words, “This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years.”, they confirm that this has allowed detection of smaller earthquakes, and have allowed the overall detection of earthquakes to be faster. Nowhere have they addressed the range of earthquakes between magnitude 5.0 and 6.9 as to why they have apparently increased in frequency of late. I find that to be interesting.
Maybe there is a reasonable explanation for the increase. The numbers have been higher the past few years in general and the average numbers in this analysis cover a wider span of time than just a few years (10 years and 110 years), or maybe this is just a statistical anomaly which will average out over time (perhaps earthquakes around the globe will drastically decrease throughout the rest of this year to be more in line with statistical averages – or gradually decrease over a longer period of time). Or maybe the apparent increase has something to do with the many predictions out there as we head towards the winter solstice of 21-Dec-2012, the end of the Mayan calendar… ? Time will tell…
How is your survival preparedness? Need earthquake insurance? ;=)
Update, end-of-year 2010 Earthquake Summary
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Earthquake – rising activity. I came up with a theory to explain a rise in seismic activity.
When China built the Three Gorges Dam and flled the reservoir, all that added water mass destabilized the underlying seismology and caused localized earthquakes, landslides and tremors.
Well, with the climate rapidly warming, trillions of tons of glaciers and Arctic and Antarctic ice are melting. Maybe quadrillions of tons. Waaaaay more than the amount contained in the Three Gorges Dam, orders of magnitude greater than that.
The melted ice – now water- makes its way to the oceans. Much ends up near the equator due to centrifugal force. The oceans have the thinnest and most sensitive tectonic plates, so adding all that water mass to the oceans should – so my theory goes – cause increasing seismic activity.
And that appears to be what’s happening. As the melting has accelerated, seismic activity worldwide has also increased, at least from what I can tell.
Lily, I to think its amazing, we live in an age where so many natural things are going on around the world, I dont think there has ever been a time such as this in the history of our planet and we get to witness all these things. Of course, the other side of the coin is that most of these things, as you have so rightly said, could cause us problems, it just backs up the fact that we must watch and do all in our power to be ‘prepared’. I have to say that I have been very encouraged by this site and the comments left by people from around the world in that area. Lets not look at it in a gloomy way though, we humans are a tough lot, we will get through what ever happens.
Hi, Just wondered if your findings take into account, that, the Richter scale was reduced by 1 whole number .After his retirment in 1970?
@Anonymous, Good question. Since 1979 the USGS has been using the “Moment Magnitude” scale to measure earthquakes 3.5 and above, while using the Richter scale to measure earthquakes below 3.5. To my knowledge, the MM scale is more accurate while measuring high magnitude earthquakes, especially those above 7.0, which is the point where the Richter scale methodology would apparently begin to saturate.
I have tracked two averages with regards to current earthquakes. One, the 110 year average, the other is the 10 year average – both based on USGS posted data. I suppose one could argue that the current USGS historical data prior to 1979 could be skewed to some degree based on the change in measurement methodology. I really don’t know the accuracy margin of error, and have looked through the USGS website in search of an answer – found none, except for the “press” to simply refer to “Magnitude” when calling out the scale of an earthquake.
how i see it is this
The once molten planet continues to cool and therefore shrink ,
The increasing movement in the ring of fire is the global spherical shrinkage using the pacific plate as a decompression zone ,
all sides subducting to allow the earth total surface area to reduce as the shrinkage continues.