EMP Commission Warns Catastrophic Consequences
First, the definition… An electromagnetic pulse (sometimes abbreviated EMP) is a burst of electromagnetic radiation. The abrupt pulse of electromagnetic radiation usually results from certain types of high energy explosions, especially a nuclear explosion, or from a suddenly fluctuating magnetic field (e.g. EMP-bomb). The resulting rapidly changing electric fields and magnetic fields may couple with electrical/electronic systems to produce damaging current and voltage surges.
Public statements by physicists and engineers working in the EMP field of the United States EMP Commission determined that EMP protections are almost completely absent in the civilian infrastructure of the United States, and that even large sectors of the United States military services were no longer protected against EMP to the level that they were during the Cold War.
The following are excerpts from a report titled…
‘Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack (Critical National Infrastructures)’
…which is well worth a few minutes of your time to read. While no one can fully imagine the consequences of such an event, the fact is that the technology exists and weapons exist which could bring it to pass. Please consider the ramifications of your life if it were to be…
The physical and social fabric of the United States is sustained by a system of systems; a complex and dynamic network of interlocking and interdependent infrastructures (“critical national infrastructures”) whose harmonious functioning enables the myriad actions, transactions, and information flow that undergird the orderly conduct of civil society in this country. The vulnerability of these infrastructures to threats — deliberate, accidental, and acts of nature — is the focus of greatly heightened concern in the current era.
The electromagnetic pulse generated by a high altitude nuclear explosion is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. The increasingly pervasive use of electronics of all forms represents the greatest source of vulnerability to attack by EMP. Electronics are used to control, communicate, compute, store, manage, and implement nearly every aspect of United States (U.S.) civilian systems. When a nuclear explosion occurs at high altitude, the EMP signal it produces will cover the wide geographic region within the line of sight of the detonation. This broad band, high amplitude EMP, when coupled into sensitive electronics, has the capability to produce widespread and long lasting disruption and damage to the critical infrastructures that underpin the fabric of U.S. society.
Some critical electrical power infrastructure components are no longer manufactured in the United States, and their acquisition ordinarily requires up to a year of lead time in routine circumstances. Damage to or loss of these components could leave significant parts of the electrical infrastructure out of service for periods measured in months to a year or more. There is a point in time at which the shortage or exhaustion of sustaining backup systems, including emergency power supplies, batteries, standby fuel supplies, communications, and manpower resources that can be mobilized, coordinated, and dispatched, together lead to a continuing degradation of critical infrastructures for a prolonged period of time.
Electrical power is necessary to support other critical infrastructures, including supply and distribution of water, food, fuel, communications, transport, financial transactions, emergency services, government services, and all other infrastructures supporting the national economy and welfare. Should significant parts of the electrical power infrastructure be lost for any substantial period of time, the Commission believes that the consequences are likely to be catastrophic, and many people may ultimately die for lack of the basic elements necessary to sustain life in dense urban and suburban communities. In fact, the Commission is deeply concerned that such impacts are likely in the event of an EMP attack unless practical steps are taken to provide protection for critical elements of the electric system and for rapid restoration of electric power, particularly to essential services. The recovery plans for the individual infrastructures currently in place essentially assume, at worst, limited upsets to the other infrastructures that are important to their operation. Such plans may be of little or no value in the wake of an EMP attack because of its long-duration effects on all infrastructures that rely on electricity or electronics.
The ability to recover from this situation is an area of great concern. The use of automated control systems has allowed many companies and agencies to operate effectively with small work forces. Thus, while manual control of some systems may be possible, the number of people knowledgeable enough to support manual operations is limited. Repair of physical damage is also constrained by a small work force. Many maintenance crews are sized to perform routine and preventive maintenance of high-reliability equipment. When repair or replacement is required that exceeds routine levels, arrangements are typically in place to augment crews from outside the affected area. However, due to the simultaneous, far-reaching effects from EMP, the anticipated augmenters likely will be occupied in their own areas. Thus, repairs normally requiring weeks of effort may require a much longer time than planned.
Cold War-style deterrence through mutual assured destruction is not likely to be an effective threat against potential protagonists that are either failing states or trans-national groups. Therefore, making preparations to manage the effects of an EMP attack, including understanding what has happened, maintaining situational awareness, having plans in place to recover, challenging and exercising those plans, and reducing vulnerabilities, is critical to reducing the consequences, and thus probability, of attack. The appropriate national-level approach should balance prevention, protection, and recovery.
Could you survive the ensuing chaos and life without electricity for a year?
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A manmade EMP is somewhat more predictable as there could be a build-up of aggression by some foreign power or somehow some terrorist group succeeds in pulling it off. The SUN is what worries me because like earthquakes, it eventually happens. The sun can all of a sudden blast a solar flare towards the planet that could fry everything electrical, more so than any EMP from people. There will be a solar episode, this is almost a certain fact. There may never be an EMP from man.
The sun is so huge and can and has had mega X flares. We are not talking X-20 or so, we are talking X-100 or larger. It is not just electrical problems with a mega flare, it is also biological damage from radiation from something so powerful. The sun has belched up mega flares before and will do it again, and people better be ready for them, because they will eventually happen, maybe during this cycle of activity that is sharply increasing.
+1 with B.E.
Solar Flare. It’s only a matter of time.
@All; This would demonstrate the need to be at your BO location to begin with. Being able to grow/raise your own food and having food stores to get you to the point that you are food independent, if you are not already, would ensure your survival. All you need is 3 acres, 2 (if that much) cleared for animals, house and garden and 1 wooded for fuel. I have retired, but I know many people that grow mega-gardens in their spare time and work full time, just depends what you’re willing to do. If you had chickens and goats (3 goats, buck and 2 does; 6-10 chickens, 1 rooster) and a garden you have vegetables, meat, milk and eggs. A good supply of candles and and a PV rechargeable battery system would supply you with modest amount of lights, radio, and potentially a small fridge (all EMP protected). A small wood stove would keep you warm and allow you to cook inside. A heavy duty steel (not sheet metal) charcoal barbeque that you can burn wood in will let you cook outside during the hot days of summer. Add a few crosscut saws, axes and mauls and other good quality hand tools and you can do almost anything you need to do. Throw in passive solar heated hot water and you can take hot showers, even in winter. Will this be a life of ease? No. But it will be a life of not having to eat bugs and live in a cave. There is survival, which I have no desire to do and then there is living, which I plan to do, in survival situations and conditions. If you think this is overkill, consider that 60-85+% of the nation/world will starve in the first 6-8 weeks, depending on the cause and extent of grid/electronics loss. Modern countries/cities will suffer the most loss, as they are less likely to be connected to the land and they will EXPECT the gub’ment to SAVE them. They will wait until it is too late. Survive well. Enjoy.
You will somehow need to protect your P.V. array. It will be fried by the properties emanating from a solar flare.
In fact P.V.’s will be one of the first electrical elements to go.
One of the reasons that NASA monitor the sun so closely is to try and protect the P.V.’s on their satellites in event of a Solar Flare.
The international space station has a special shielded room for the residing inhabitants to escape too in the case of a large solar flare. The bad news is that this room will not protect them in the event of a X class30+
The most harmful rays will reach the earth in around 9 minutes. These initial rays are the ones which will knockout P.V.’s and electronic circuitry. Over the following few days the more harmful induction waves will be received and depending on the extent of the solar flare will last longer – these are the cause of problems for transformers and long cables etc.
@Beano; Absolutely correct. Keep all your SHTF electronic stuff in a Faraday cage. I have a metal building that is grounded and use the 3M static bags to wrap my stuff in and put them into a metal file cabinet on a board (non-conductive). This is overkill but better safe than sorry. The metal bld should be enough to stop it. Ammo cans would work also for small items like range finders, GPS, deer-camp radios etc. Yes, you are right, it may take days for the full effects of a solar flare to be realized. Survive well. Enjoy.
My problem is getting the 6 P.V. arrays off the second story roof to the emergency prepared cellar in 9 minutes.
And F.W.I.W. Last Sunday – Christmas day we had a devastating hail storm in my city. Hail storms the size of golf balls rendered useless many of the federal government subsidized solar P.V. panels which have been installed on private premises roofs.
@Beano; In the FWIW department. While I’m not a PV expert, I believe the only active components on most PV arrays (unless you have a distributed inverter system) are blocking diodes/zener diodes on the panels. Depending on how many diodes you’re talking about it might be easier to just make plans to replace them. You can use a torch to heat a soldering iron, or find a butane powered iron to do the re-soldering. I don’t think the crystals themselves are subject to EMP, please verify this independently and it might even depend on the KIND of crystals/cells you have. The matter of trying to “rip” the panels off the roof and store them in time might cause more damage than just letting them be and replacing the diodes, not to mention the “stress” of worrying about them. Another option, if you had enough warning, would be to cut one end of each diode loose, turn it around and touch both ends together to protect it and save them and just solder them back. JMO. Survive well. Enjoy.
The EMP report was made public on 9-11-2001 which is why it received so little attention at the time (from the book One Second After). I’ve mentioned this book before and highly recommend it. In my opinion, the scenarios presented are very close to what one could expect. None of our high-tech defense systems in place could stop the attacks in the book, nor could they in real life. If I were a nuclear wielding rogue nation with a US axe to grind, this publication would be my play book. But I agree with Be informed, a solar event could be an all encompassing global dilema, sending us all back 150 years. And back then, technology didn’t exist to support the huge population we have today.
There apparently were several EMP reports. The one that I was quoting from is from 2008. Like you said, they received little attention. Here’s a link to the book, One Second After
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@Chiller; You are right on about the infrastructure to support 7B people not being there. In the U.S. there is probably enough potential infrastructure to support the current populace but it could not be brought to bear in enough time to prevent tens of millions of people from starving. JMO Survive well. Enjoy.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111219112216.htm
In case you might think this electromagnetic charge will not affect you.
“The results imply that iron oxide is conducting in the whole range of its stability in Earth’s lower mantle.” Cohen continues, “The metallic phase will enhance the electromagnetic interaction between the liquid core and lower mantle. This has implications for Earth’s magnetic field, which is generated in the outer core. It will change the way the magnetic field is propagated to Earth’s surface, because it provides magnetomechanical coupling between the Earth’s mantle and core.”
What that means is all Earth will be zapped.
CME impacts on our magnetosphere make it oscillate. Like having a DC magnetosphere suddenly turn into an AC magnetosphere where electrical ground or ‘earth’ is no longer a constant, one-way path. Instead current surges into and out of ground. Instant death to anything plugged into the grid. So if you know it’s coming, pop open all your breakers AND unplug everything.
I was looking at the mass difference in the size of the sun in comparison to the planet today and it is incredible to think about. It has been thought that a CME could have been the cause of some mass extinctions because CME’s can destroy plant and animal life if the cosmic radiation is strong enough to reach the surface. Also the dangers of CME’s are what it can do to the atmosphere. While the electrical world could be totally fired there is also a danger of biological damage and agricultural destruction on top of not having anything work.
Solar radiation storms are something very few people think about, the main thought is what electrical devices are affected. People are at risk for radiation exposure in high flying aircraft from S-5 storm that occurs every few years. Imagine a mega CME storm that has happened before. The EMP will only be part of the problem, as the food supply from the agricultural section being hit, and from people going outside, maybe even inside. Look at the chart from NOAA to see that radiation storms are a BIOLOGICAL HAZARD ON TOP OF EMP.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms
@All; That a rogue state could perform an EMP attack, successfully on the U.S. is not a high probability event. EMP, as related to the types of nuclear device used has kind of a love/hate relationship with the EMP effect components, E1,E2 and E3. The short version is that the E1 is what will toast your computer and other IC technology devices, as it is the short burst, high voltage, impulse part of EMP. E2 is the lightning bolt, middle duration type pulse and is actually highly stoppable with the right types of circuits to bypass it around your equipment. The problem is that the E1 will probably destroy that circuit. E3 is the Loooonnnng duration wave, lasting hundreds of seconds (minutes) that will affect the long axial conductors, e.g. wires. This in turn will damage the relays, transformers and connection equipment in power generation stations, and hence the “lights out”. The difficulty is that E1 and E2 get the best production from a small yield, thin container fission devices. Most countries that sought the “bomb” want the biggest and best, thermonuclear devices, which is what India and Pakistan have. These devices produce the most E3 as it is directly related to the total yield of the device, so the bigger the better. The only way to do the perfect “EMP hit” would be with a very, very, large hydrogen bomb. Only the U.S. and Russia have these large devices. While China, India and Pakistan have thermonuclear weapons, they don’t have the ultra large ones. They would rather have 3 small bombs than 1 big one. Most of the 1 MT plus bombs are not in service now anyway as they were typically gravity bombs, although the USSR did have heavy “throw weight” ICBMs with multi-megaton warheads (10-20 Mt). We had megaton-ish warheads with the Minuteman I with a nominal yield of 1Mt. The Titan II ICBM had a w-53 warhead of around 9 Mt. They did not remain in service long as the strategy was to have lesser yields but more weapons. Anyway, you would need one of the very large devices to effect a valid and thorough EMP attack. That’s only one part of the equation. You still have to have a launch vehicle that will put it where you need it, which would be 300-400 Km above the center of the U.S. Just to put this in perspective, this is an altitude that rivals the ISS. The only nations to have achieved this orbital height are the U.S., Russia, China, France, Japan and India (sort of) This is a lot harder than just putting a missile on a freighter and sailing to the coast of the U.S. and launching it. These aren’t bottle rockets. It requires a lot of special technology to launch a missile from a non-stable platform, have it “know where it is” and have it do what you want it to. Launching from land is a whole lot easier. Short version, can a rogue nation launch an EMP attack within the boundaries of a 100% absolute inability to do that? YES, they can. But it will be in the 99+ percentile of being unable to do so. They must have the correct weapon. They must have a dependable launch vehicle. They must have a “sea launchable” weapon system. They must have a very high tech guidance system. They must reach orbital altitudes. The answer to all of these is that “they don’t”. This doesn’t even take into account other anti-missile countermeasures that are deployed in the U.S. Now, can they eff some stuff up, yeah. Can they blow NYC or D.C. to kingdom come, yeah. Can they cause misery and grief, sure, but they will pay for it. We will know where it comes from. Only Russia and China can do this (EMP) right now and I’m not sure about China having a DEDICATED EMP weapon. In any event they might as well send missiles as an EMP attack will be responded to as an act of thermonuclear war, just like a missile attack. Worry about a X50+ solar flare.
@ TripodXL. “Do I have a question for you in regards to EMP!” No one seems to ever mention another natural event that causes an explosion in the atmosphere, that being a bolide type meteor or a comet. It would only take a ball of ice 150 feet large exploding above the planet will cause about a 8 megaton air blast. A more solid object would be even smaller to cause a 10 mega ton blast. Smaller objects hit the atmosphere all the time and a larger one is still possible all the time.
The question is would such an impact with the atmosphere cause an EMP similar to a hydrogen bomb detonation? Would an explosion of a body, such as a small asteroid or comet be high enough up, would the comet or meteor ONLY explode at lower altitudes? Would everyone be jumping for joy that the meteor or small comet did not hit the surface of the planet only to be blacked out by an EMP a couple of second later?
To further illustrate the amount of kinetic energy that is generated from impacts of extraterrestrial bodies is a site that you can plug in different sizes, velocities, density of the body, speed, angle of descent, and see what will happen to the planet, including airburst size that I imagine would cause an EMP. You can use the different formats to calculate results, Earth Impact Effects Program will immediately download and work fine if you don’t want to take the time with the other one. I sure had a good time plugging in all sorts of scenarioes.
http://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/
Always a good read.
A perspective – relationship of the earth to the sun and outer galaxies
@BI; I would not think that it would cause an EMP. I can’t find any reference to the Tunguska explosion causing EMP type effects. Even though it was in outer-slobovia Siberia, there were telegraphs and long wires across Siberia that would certainly have picked EMP up. I can’t find anything that refers to this anomaly of EMP being generated in any literature, that isn’t in the basement of the Vatican. If anyone else has insight feel free to speak. I use this example, since it it’s the best and largest known event, happens on my birthday, and most scientists agree that it was probably a “carbonaceous chondrite”, a type of stony meteoroid. What happens is that a compression wave develops in front of the meteoroid as it hits denser and denser atmosphere and eventually the sheer power of the wave, exceeds the cohesive ability of the meteoroid and you get a “kinetic energy” blast that consumes most of the object. Tunguska was said to be a 10-30 Mt blast. So, the most probable answer to your question is, no, it can’t. Now to bloviate and potificate, it would seem that in space at large that the POSSIBILITY exists, for a natural H-bomb to come into being over the fullness of time. An asteroid could develop a hollow in the center and comets, with an abundance of deuterium, could crash onto the asteroid, and through orbital passes close to the sun, the water could wind up concentrated in the central void. Stay with me here. Physical compression of deuterium can, in theory if it is great enough, generate a thermonuclear explosion, but I take it one step farther. In the vastness of space, I think the possibility of the following happening, is quite plausible. Say the asteroid has some metal in it, like polonium (initiator), titanium, aluminum, beryllium (reflectors), and plain old uranium (fission and reflector). These are common enough elements and through serendipitous coincidence, you wind up with a single-stage, fusion-boosted, fission device. IF everything comes together, all at once, this coming into the atmosphere would create the circumstances for the “serendipitous H-bomb”. Now this would not be an efficient device, maybe .01%. The sheer size of it is why it would work. If you’re talking about a 1/4 mile wide asteroid that produces the necessary kinetic explosion that compresses the core…..whaboom!!!! This could be on the order of 100s of Mts. The lights would go off everywhere. So, if this lucky event took place, yes, it could make a significant EMP. According to the NORAD space trackers, they get 1 or 2 of these meteoroids a year causing high altitude airbursts, so at that rate we would have experienced an EMP from one by now if they caused EMP, in general. Now having said what I said, my guess is that we are pretty safe, from impactor generated EMP. Survive well. Enjoy.
@ TripodXL. Thank you for all the interesting information on EMP causing events that could possibly happen, I just knew you would have much info on this. I wonder if the Tunguska event just was not high enough up to fry telegraph wires at the distances far away from the detonation? I know about these meteroroids that cause high air bursts, but maybe they are just not powerful enough to cause an EMP. I think most of these bolides are only a few yards in size yet produce something in the hundred kiloton range. Just love that “serendipitious H-bomb” that could happen, it something that I did not know about. I learned sopmething today, thank you again, and for this site to those that contribute something so interesting that all of us can learn from.
By the way I have known people born under the sign of Cancer and most of them have fanastic senses of humor. Just look at all the entertainers that are Cancer born; Mel Brooks, Harrison Ford, Sylvester Stallone, Meryl Streep, Patrick Stewart, Kevin Bacon, John Crusack star of 2012 movie, Tobey Maguire Spiderman, Cheech Marin, Ringo from the Beatles, and so, so many more. Cancers are multi-talented and have great senses of humor. When you add clever wit to your comments it really makes it that much more enjoyable to read on top of being so informative. You are really a funny person with some real humor. I know you make Ken laugh and many others as I am sure many look forward to your comments.
Hi! I’ve been reading your blog for some time now and finally got the courage to go ahead and give you a shout out from Lubbock Tx! Just wanted to say keep up the great job!