Guest Note: by P.T.
If you factor all the probable events that would cause global effects, you may end up with a list as follows.
10. A star 3.5 light years away going supernova (gamma ray burst)
9. Massive CME from Sun
8. Methane deposits causing rapid warming
7. Middle East war (non nuke)
6.North Korea invading the South
5.Cascadia fault 9.8 earthquake
4. Asteroid or comet impact 1 mile plus in diameter
3. Nuke war
2. Worldwide pandemic
1. Yep you guessed it a VEI 8+ Eruption
For the record it is estimated that 80% of the worlds population could not survive a “super eruption” longer than 6 months ( off the recorded stats from WHO). In the west we do not make our food, we buy it. I know you are aware of the social unrest it would cause, and wars over resources.
Probabilities 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 all have happened before and will happen again.
Ken adds: The simple ability to grow some of your own food, if implemented by enough people, would go a long way towards increasing the odds during some types of disasters, at least in urban and rural areas. A huge problem of course, is the city – and city dwellers who for the most part are unable to do this. It’s just the way it is…
From this list, I often consider a Worldwide Pandemic to be in the realm of possibilities as one of the highest and probable casualty risks during our lifetime, given our worldwide travel and the rapid increase of drug resistance. A Middle East war and perhaps a limited nuclear war I also believe to be a higher possibility, the effects of which would be economically immense worldwide, while the casualties would obviously be regional to their locations.
Who is to say though… a massive solar flare and CME could rip at any moment, rendering our electrical gird useless for months to years – enough time to inflict massive casualties. Or the Yellowstone super volcano could explode and cover most of the US with ash and drastically lower world temperatures for years – causing extreme reduction to world food resources.
…all food for thought
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