H5N1 Avian Flu And You
From the Centers for Disease Control, Like all influenza A viruses, HPAI H5N1 viruses continue to evolve and human infections with H5N1 virus, resulting from direct or close contact with infected sick or dead poultry, are expected to continue to occur.
The avian influenza subtype H5N1 viruses currently circulating in poultry in parts of Asia and northeast Africa, have caused human disease and deaths since 1997.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus – referred to as HPAI H5N1 and sometimes shortened to H5N1 – is a virus that occurs mainly in birds, is highly contagious among birds, and can be deadly to them, especially domestic poultry. Though relatively rare, sporadic human infections with this virus have occurred and caused serious illness and death.
When humans develop illness from H5N1 virus infection, severe respiratory illness (e.g. pneumonia and respiratory failure) and death may occur. Nearly 600 human H5N1 cases have been reported in 15 countries to the World Health Organization since November 2003, resulting in approximately 60% mortality.
How does the Avian Bird Flu spread?
In the Asia-Pacific region waterbirds generally migrate in a north-south orientation. For the long-distance migrants, especially shorebirds, three flyways are recognized:
Central Asian-Indian Flyway
East Asian-Australasian Flyway
West Pacific Flyway
The largest outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in wild birds occurred at Qinghai Lake, China in 2005, followed by an outbreak at Erkhel Lake, Mongolia which suggests a possible virus spread via a migratory linkage between these regions.
As humans come in contact with infected birds, the virus ‘may’ jump to the human. Historically this has been relatively rare, but viruses are constantly mutating and adapting, and ‘could’ one day make a serious jump to the human population. If it does, it will kill 60% of us, or those who contract it.
How will the human strain of H5N1 spread?
It will begin in Asia, where it currently is predominant, and will rapidly spread via the airlines. It will likely start at Shanghai International and Hong Kong International, while working its way across the globe via the major international airports, the busiest of which are listed here:
Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport
Hong Kong International Airport
London Heathrow Airport
Frankfurt International Airport
Chicago O’Hare International Airport
Tokyo International Airport
Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport
From there, it will spread locally, within regions, similar to how the ordinary flu spreads. The shocking fact will be the speed at which it happens, and how quickly it will destabilize the lives of nearly everyone – not to mention the horrible economic impact it will have as people remain in their homes refusing to risk going to ‘work’ and contracting the deadly killer.
The question is, are you prepared for such an event? Do you have what it takes to mostly remain at home and sustain yourself for 90 days, or longer?
Perhaps now is a good time to think about that, BEFORE such an event were to occur. Those who are not prepared (adequate food storage, hygiene supplies, and money-savings to pay the bills while out of work) will be at tremendous risk while out in public, all the while the store shelves are being emptied by panicked mobs of the majority population.
Note that as of this post, there is no new threat from this virus than there already is. But things ‘could’ change.
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@Ken; Very timely post. Most people do not understand what “the flu” is. This is what it is not; it isn’t something that make you sick for a few days with the sniffles and then you go back to work. Influenza is a LIFE THREATENING disease. My mother was one of those raised to believe that you went to work no matter what. And, back in the day employers thought the same way. My mother got whatever was running around for flu in 1964, Hong Kong I think. She was flat on her back for 10 days. I guess I was too young (12) to appreciate the seriousness of it at the time, but I understand it now. The easiest thing to do is to get a flu shot. I know there are all kinds of conspiracy theories out about flu shots, or any shots for that matter, but everyone can’t be in on all the conspiracies unless I’m the only one left and you’re all laughing at me…you aren’t, are you?(TIC) Anyway the flu shot/mist is cheap, both monetarily and physically, defense against the flu. I have had a flu shot every year since the mid 70s and the mist for the past 5 years. Out of all those times I was only sick once (coincidental??)and 24 hours and 6 aspirin later I was fine and it wasn’t too bad. I’ve had colds that were worse. Anyway, I’m 60 and in better health than most of the people I meet that are my age. The flu can/will KILL you! And I’m just talking about the “regular” flu…not some super-strain. If you are under 10 or over 45-55 (depending on your health) you should get a vaccination. OF COURSE, you should check with your medical professional to find out what is right for you. Survive well. Enjoy.
In a recent survey, it was asked what shtf situation worried you the most. It ended up being the economic bottom falling out. That may be, but a pandemic such as the H5N1 virus starting scares me the most. You can put gold and siver away for an economic catasrophe, but there aren’t a lot of concrete things you can do once a pandemic starts – especially once you’ve gotten sick. Let’s hope nothing like this starts.
@GMB; I agree with the premise that an economic collapse is probably the most feared scenario but a significant pandemic (15-25% of world population) will create an economic issue for a period of time. The bright side of that is that after a pandemic of that scale the economy will get better later on (i.e. new job openings or less competition) What bothers me about a pandemic is if it is too significant. The loss of too many people and you run the risk of global, sovereign instability. If the losses are 35-45% or higher (SWAG) there would be the specter of opportunistic chaos and war. A pandemic is one of those SHTF deals that can cause other SHTF events. In the post that follows is my strategy for avoiding the pandemic. Survive well. Enjoy.
@All; Another point that people fail to understand is that you may not die from the flu, rather than that you die from the flu because you can’t get any medical treatment. The movie “Contagion” shows how this would take place. The county that I live in has about 200K people and we have three, 500 bed hospitals, that operate at 98+% capacity (it’s actually higher). That means that there are 30 hospital beds available at any point in time (optimistically). And obviously, the local mortician business would be based on the mean average number of customers they TEND to get. If 20% of the population became ill with a 60% mortality rate, you’re talking about 40,000 desperately sick people, of which 24,000 are going to die. And actually many more will die than the 60% due to the inability of the hospitals and mortuary facilities to keep pace. The 60% mortality rate that Ken mentions is for onesy-twosey cases that actually get some medical care. People will die because they can’t get into the hospital. Isolation and the ability to “bug in” is your only defense, until the pandemic burns itself out. If you are a LONG term “flu-shot-getter”, like me, then you MAY have SOME resistance to it but I wouldn’t count on it. And here again is a plug for you to be as healthy as you can be to begin with with proper exercise and diet. If you have a warning that a pandemic is in the first few days, I would batten down the hatches and not go anywhere that wasn’t an emergency trip. You’ll notice that the Asians will put on masks and wear gloves, which I would recommend if you go out, but not us…we’re too vain. Don’t let your vanity kill you. A mask, gloves and GOOD hygiene will go along way to keep you healthy but isolation would virtually assure it. If you’re prepped correctly a 3 month pandemic should be easy to survive. Prepping and a flu shot are CHEAP survival insurance. Survive well. Enjoy.
You bring up an extremely good point, that is the current hospital daily census. Similar to airlines (and most everything else these days) the capacities are booked to near full, to maximize profits. There purposely are not extra beds in hospitals, seats in airlines, etc., because it would cost too much to build more capacity that would not always be full. So add this fact to your preparedness formula…
another factor to consider is the # of ventilators available
with the flu comes secondary infections and respiratory failure
to stay alive while hoping and praying for the antibiotics to work
you would be on a ventilator,and there just aren’t that many of them available
http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/news/news/disaster-medicine-ventilator-supply.page
and while I’m here,let me plug one of my favorite books
THE JAKARTA PANDEMIC its a pretty realistic fictional scenario of how things
might actually play out
http://jakartapandemic.com/
The one thing I read about the Bird Flu that is good is that for right now the flu virus is in the deeper part of the airways and not so close to the throat area like the common flu. This is one reason why the Bird Flu does not explode all over the place because it is not as easy to contaminate someone when the virus is deeply in the body. It is also a reason why the flu is so deadly because it is so deep in the lungs. Doesn’t mean that it cannot mutate into the throat are and or the nostrals. Even worse if it joined up with the common cold virus as some hybrid variant.
I still worry that the TRUE death plague is going to come out of India in which the conditions are unbelievably filthy, hot most of the time, plenty of moisture year round, and wall to wall people. The absolutely perfect petri dish for a Stephen King type non-fictional type super pathogen to hit the world. What I really fear is the Bird Flu getting over into the slums of New Delhi and mutating into a mega contagious virus that is caught from a simply sneeze or cough from being too close to someone.
There are 3 likelihoods for the demise of the human civilization in this order; a deadly plague, like many other species have died from on this planet for hundreds of millions of years, full scale global nuclear war over the remaining resources of the planet, or the sun finally, like it has done for billions of years, belches up a super mega flare that sends a worldwide EMP and or a similar flare that has extreme levels of radiation and severely damaged the biological sphere of the Earth. There are others like an asteroid impact, but those top 3 are in my opinion are the ones that in our lifetimes that we have to be most concerned with.
My grandmother remembered the 1918 flu pandemic and her vivid memories have stayed with me. She was 10 years old and living in a tiny mining town in Nevada. She remembered that every single person, except one gentlemen prone to the bottle, was flat on their backs. This unlikely hero had to keep the fires going, haul water, clean up…well you can just imagine. Later I researched the subject and I found out how horrible “just the flu” could be, I understood what a small planet this really is and how interconnected we all are. A great history of the 1918 is “The Great Influenza” by John Barry. I learned SO much history and flu “facts”. Did you know the reason your bones aches during the flu seems to be a reaction to the rapid stimulation of your body to produce white blood cells in the bone marrow as an immune response? Yes you probably did, I have noticed this is an especially smart crowd. What I am leading up to is that not just any mask or respirators will filter the flu virus, hospitals use N95 particulate. Do the research. AND I have a question..how do you convince those others around you that they need to prepare? We have done this life style so long that family and friends just think we are obsessed or silly. Thanks for listening, stay safe.
@Woodsey; The short answer to your question is that “you can’t”! The old “horse to water” story. All you can do is be the example. Don’t be SHRILL about it, and hope that some seminal event/epiphany, that isn’t life threatening, wakes them up. Also, and I’m not saying that there are absolutely no conspiracies out there BUT they are significantly rarer than folks would have you believe, but if you believe in more conspiracy theories than you can count on one or two fingers, then people TEND to not pay any attention to you and label you a flake. One way to make a “non-flakey” example to someone is the monetary savings of buying food in bulk and who doesn’t want to save money? That way you get them to have de facto food storage for ANOTHER reason, instead of being one of those “crazy preppers. And if you’re lucky, they’ll catch on. Survive well. Enjoy.
well the h5n1 is here ask about 9 people who died in new york.or the dead birds in arkansas.cdc lies!