2nd Solar X-Flare In A Week Hurtling Towards Earth
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Approximate Flare Start : 12-07-2012 1616 UT
Approximate Flare Maximum: 12-07-2012 1653 UT at Flux X 1.4
Approximate Flare End : 12-07-2012 2027 UT
LOCATION OF HF FADEOUT: South America/Central America/USA/Canada/North Atlantic/
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Australian Space Forecast Centre
IPS Radio and Space Services
Exactly 6 days after the sun unleashed the strongest solar flare in years, the most powerful kind… ‘X-class’ flare, today the sun fired off an even stronger X-class flare from sunspot 1520.
There are three sunspot regions (1519, 1520, 1521) all close together which currently appear as an enormous (180,000 miles) angry flaming twisted fiery plasma as seen in the next image from SDO ‘AIA 304′.
And here’s the thing… IT’S FACING DIRECTLY AT EARTH
Image of the flare as it occurred:
Any associated CME (coronal mass ejection) with this flare will take a day or two to reach earth. Since the flare was directly facing earth, it WILL BE a geomagnetic event, and may cause problems.
I feel compelled to post when this happens, as a reminder that our sun is quite capable of ending our easy way of life. A powerful enough X-class flare WOULD END IT. Any X-class flare, even on the lower side of the X-scale, makes me cringe. Most people have no clue what this ball of fire in the sky is capable of… and because their lives have not been disrupted by it in the past, they don’t give it a thought. It was ‘only’ 153 years ago when a monster X-class flare blasted the earth… an event if had it happened today would have put down most of the entire power grid – for a very long time… long enough for tens or hundreds of millions to die.
We are in an active period of time with the sun as we peak solar cycle 24 through this year and into next. Stay tuned. If the lights go out… maybe you’ll know why.
Update: According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms.
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Ken – any solid facts with Solar Pannels and their ability to withstand a CME?
Just watching the neighbours put them up on their roofs, could that be the issue that one day they’ll just stop working all together…
I’ve been getting a whole load of alerts in my inbox from the Aussie observatory and all I know is that I have my larger Faraday box coming along and I cant rely on the authorities eg: news or radio or even my local emergency sms broadcaster to relay a large X class flare quick enough (and I doubt that they would even bother tbh).
I just need to ensure that I can get my stuff organised and stored quick enough as to avoid damage my sensitive belongings.
Thanks Ken.
@Slazmo; While we did some experiments in the 90′s in the Air Force, it’s hard to say if PVs will survive or not. It depends on what ACTIVE components are on the panel. If there are none, there is PROBABLY not a problem…probably. Now the larger some conductive device (broad swaths) is, the larger the currents it must be able to handle (as it picks up current through inductance). Now while PVs are large, they tend to have large wide runs of PC and again if there are no active components, i.e. transistors, diodes etc. they should be okay. Now, having said that, I would personally keep a certain percentage of PV capacity as backup (for an off grid system) in a Faraday cage for safety reasons. The problem with EMPs and CMEs is that there is NO STANDARD reading. You can’t guarantee anything. There is no meter that you can buy to tell you what to do. It is just a Scientific Wild Assed Guess (e.g. SWAG). You buys your ticket and you takes your chances!!! I personally would keep at least 10%, if not 15%, of the PV capacity in safe storage, IF I COULD AFFORD IT. And therein lies the problem. If you have a PV system JUST for charging rechargeable batteries, just keep it in a Faraday cage and be done with it until you need it. Do test it occaisionally for safety’s sake Survive well. Enjoy.
It’s about semiconductor junctions. Solar PV panels have blocking diodes built into them (for a few reasons). The question is, could a sufficient EMP force enough current across those diode junctions to blow them out…
There are a lot of electronics in the Inverter that feeds my solar power into my house. Those are what would fry.
Thanks for the feedback Tripod! Really informative!!!
If it’s due to hit at 10 UL time (aka: greenwich), I think that makes “noon” in central Europe. So, the maximum risk area is Europe and Africa and fading out over the Atlantic. That would make the biggest danger to the US an economic one.
No word yet on eta of any associated CME, other than it ‘normally’ takes one to three days.
My theory is that this CME will “electrically charge” the clouds in the monsoon weather pattern in the Western United States. These electrical clouds will enhance the lightning with possible dry lightning. The extremely dry vegetation just needs a spark to begin another round of wildfires.
Was in semiconductor manufacturing for 22 years and unless it’s a Zener diode, it won’t take a whole lot of reverse voltage. Voltage/currents produced by a Carrington event will not be biased one way or the other making the outcome for panels inconclusive. However, I think it’s safe to say you can kiss your panel voltage regulator goodbye. That’s why I keep a supply of spare electronic parts and equipment in a faraday cage. You really only need some diodes for charging panels to prevent reverse bias going from the batts out to the panel. You don’t even need them if you are careful but will have to monitor your batts to prevent overcharging.
I don’t have an EE, but solar panels are made up of one (Monocrystalline) or many (Polycrystalline) cells that are a PN junction, a diode. The energy from photons striking the cell(s) induces current to flow across the junction (http://www.southampton.ac.uk/~solar/intro/tech6.htm). Too much induced current is going to either fuse the PN junction and short it, or destroy the junction opening it. Either way, no current will flow. The blocking diode that stops current from the battery from flowing back to the panel after dark is the least of the worries. Least that’s my take on it, but would be happy to be wrong.
I also believe that there are many blocking diodes (in addition to the blocking diode that stops battery flow back to the panel at night) within the grid of PV cells of each panel (uncertain of specific physical location of these diodes) which are used to prevent a partial shadow on the panel (covering just a few of the individual cells) from knocking down the voltage of the entire panel. No doubt though that this varies from manufacturer to manufacturer.
I’d put money down that you’re right.
Can you recommend what type of household items needs to be protected?
This particular X-flare (1.4) and its associated CME is likely not strong enough to cause damage that will affect us badly. Having said that, it is a wake up call that the sun is quite capable of X-flares, and when we get into the range of X-20 and greater… all bets are off.
Start with whatever a lightning strike will take out. Making stuff you are using resistant to this sort of problem is very difficult, and takes knowledge and ingenuity, but protecting stuff not being used is pretty easy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18838598
Well, I don’t know if any of you readers use HF or shortwave radio- but boy it was total blackout! Not even the Time Stations (WWV/H) were coming in. I am in the Southwest US. Not one station could come in- total noise on all HF bands. For what it’s worth, our military uses HF radio for communications of the highest importance (to send coded orders, emergency action messages, etcetera) NOT internet nor phone- too risky. I bet airline pilots flying anywhere near the circles had to re-route or at least lost radio contact. Just now at 06:07UTC I am starting to get reception again, but mostly hearing CW (morse code) amateurs doing a contest. Too noisy and very poor reception for voice. Also, if there were an event of EMP- you will lose shortwave radio reception also.
I picked up the Alex Jones rebroadcast on WWCR (5070 kHz) last night from about 500 miles away, but found AM was completely dead. Even the mega station 200 miles away was barely coming in.
As of 6 a.m. EST the Geomagnetic K index is still active. Cell and Wi-Fi freeze, radio waves are in essence erased or voided. ( Depends on your location and band width demand; you may notice nothing.) It all comes down to a crap shoot and what you are willing to gamble upon. (That given anything less than a mass extinction event.) All the more reason to “Prep” if you wish to be able to communicate comings and goings. Everyone is grumpy as their computers have been giving them so much trouble. Actually it is the Sun’s high jinks that are at the heart of these so loved devices errs… I’m simply astounded at how many folks have zero clue as to the current events and their potentialities. A “G-2″ is really quite moderate, however like the waves of the sea we will see more ebb and flow to come. Are you Prepared? I mean really fire drill prepared to change all you know and use in an instant. In all honesty my recent test run left me high and dry on access to some of the basics I would like for immediate use. Refine, refine, refine… And Survive-All… o…
I’m wondering if this caused my big old headache on July 15th?
Usually taking chlorella, cilantro will do the trick, but this headache would not relent and today, July 17th, I still have remnants of it.
hmmmm?
I may be more “attuned” to electro-magnetic surges in the atmosphere probably from all the mercury fillings in my mouth!!!
I’m just a walking antennae
Some people can apparently sense a CME’s effects.
@Ken; Apparently!