Could This Enormous Sunspot Be THE ONE?
November 4, 2011, Submitted by: Ken Tweet
An enormous sunspot region is spinning into view on the surface of the Sun, the largest seen in many years. Out of nowhere, it appeared over the eastern limb and likely caused a gasp or two as it appeared into view. For those who understand the potential ramifications of solar power, ‘the power of the Sun’, we wonder if the next enormous sunspot could become a repeat of the 1859 Carrington Event – a sunspot region which produced a massive solar flare and Coronal Mass Ejection which if it had occurred today – would no doubt send us back into the stone age.
From a disaster and risk-awareness point of view, a Carrington type flare from the Sun is one of the handful of disaster scenarios that truly cause deep concern for a worst-case-scenario. Unfortunately most people do not understand the technical aspect of such an event, and therefore do not understand and are not aware of the risk and resultant chaos if such an event were to occur.
To sum it up in a very general way, what would happen would be close to the following…
A huge sunspot region would appear on the Sun, and would rotate across the surface until it is directly facing the Earth.
A massive X30+ solar flare and massive CME would explode from the sunspot region and hurl an unimaginable glob of electromagnetic energy towards the Earth.
The Earth’s magnetic shield would not be able to hold back the energy which would invisibly slam into power lines all across the world (after already having destroyed the orbiting Satellites).
Many or most of the electrical power grids would fail as countless transformers blow up all across the planet as the electrically induced currents of the CME overwhelm the capacity of the systems.
The rest of the story rapidly descends into massive human chaos as huge portions of power grid systems are doomed to failure for perhaps years, while at the same time many of the electronic systems are blown out including satellites, communication systems, and the financial system of commerce.
I’m not a nuke activist, but one of the scariest results of this scenario (other than mass chaos from millions of desperate people) would be the high number of nuclear power plants that would probably melt down after their emergency generator’s fuel ran out as the fuel distribution channels collapse, eventually exposing millions to deadly radiation.
You can question nearly any scientist and they will agree that there is no doubt that a Carrington event will occur again, and some believe that we may be overdue for such an event. The last time it occurred, THERE WAS NO POWER GRID. Today, our lives absolutely depend upon it. Think about it…
As the massive sunspot ‘AR1339′ rotates towards facing the Earth, we can only hope that this is not ‘the one’. We will find out for sure during the next week or two as it transits across the Earth-facing surface of the Sun. Don’t forget, we’re approaching the present solar-cycle maximum which is due to peak in 2012 – 2013.
Are you prepared? It certainly would be a near impossible task to do all the things necessary to assure your survival through such an event, but hopefully you will do your own research to discover that this threat is real, and hopefully it will cause some of you to take the first steps to being more prepared than you are today.
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I have seen them bigger, but that is besides the point. I have seen this same type of visual pattern in dying out phases of very strong thunderstorms, it is called the blow out phase. This sunspot kind of resembles this feature in thunderstorms. Of course plasma is way different than water vapor. It just seems like, hopefully, it will produce some more X flares in the low single digit numbers, but nothing above an X-7 or so. It just does not seem to be as organized as some of the flares of years past that did throw up a lot of material. I know famous last words.
I tell you, it would be awful if it did hurl a X-30 or larger flare at the planet, we would all be so deeply in trouble. That X-19 a few years ago would have caused terrible damage to the satellites if it had been directed at the planet. I have always wondered what would happen IF all the satellites, including the military ones were fried all of a sudden and no country could see what the enemy was doing. I have seen science fiction shows about this leading to World War 3 because the other side didn’t want to take the chance of being caught blinded as everybody would be. I wonder what would happen!??????????????
That was an X-28+ or more like an X-40 on November 4th, 2003but was not earth directed. 1339 has the same potential and can wreak havoc on us at any time.
Well, there’s strong tidal pressure on the earth and sun right now. Check out the planet setup.
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar
It makes for a good trigger on earthquakes, volcanoes, and sunspots. You see it with the Old Faithful geyser. The geyser normally has around a 1.5+ hour eruption cycle that edges forward slowly during the day. The last month, it’s been stuck or even backing up. It’d be interesting for someone to check into the correlation with earthquake activity but that probably won’t happen since scientists don’t seem to think that tidal pressure has anything to do with the geyser cycle.
@ Craig. Someone that is an expert in geology told me once to look for a greater than 95 minute average time frame between eruptions at Old Faithful as an indication of something brewing, like a pressure cooker with no steam outlet. Most in the science fields will dismiss any tidal forces as something that cause earthquakes and volcanoes because of their ignorance to thinking outside their sheltered boxes. Even an increase in greater air pressure can trip a fault just ready to break as many quakes in Southern California have gone off during Santa Anas when the air is falling, especially around the canyons where the air is focused more on and where these faults have been and snapped. The proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back.
I personally feel the moon has much more influence on the planet than the sun, as the sun has 40% the gravity affect of the moon. The closeness of the moon really has much to do with triggering earthquakes, volcanoes, and other geophysical events. The sun however when it becomes active like this increases the tidal stress on many different faults that are ready to go at anytime. The additional fields of disturbances created by the matter ejected by the sun you would think have at least some bearing on what goes inside the planet. It only takes a little push or pull of something to trigger something already near failure. There are plenty of massive faults just ready to go off right now.
There is much not understood about the gravity waves out in space, and I have always questioned these 100% confidence in asteroids not hitting the planet like the one that is 1/4 of a mile wide that will be 202,000 miles within the planet. Or a large object knocks into another like a pinball game. These 100% confidence rating they should not give to the public, maybe 99.99%. Whenever the sun starts belching up like this it creates force out in space and it would seem that this could push objects if concentrated in certain spots. This would include on the pressure of the planet, like what you are saying about the geysers.
Of course those in the scientific community will tell you that they are 100% confident that the sun has no influence on anything within the planet. Just like the USGS that is so confident in their ability to measure earthquakes continuoulsy downgrades earthquakes from their first measurements. Like an earthquake in Oregon was at first a 5.9 then became a 5.3. “Ba Humbug”, to the scientific community, of course there are all sorts of unseen forces that can trigger all sorts of Earth related activity.
Your last sentence got me thinking….about the pending planetary alignment coming up next year – and the explanation of how gravity works after watching the PBS special the other night. Is it possible that some of the increased quake/volcanic activity we’re seeing can be correlated with the alignment and the gravity well created by the outer planets? Seems to me that there’s a large scale event surrounding this upcoming solar system oddity. And as you stated, even our current science cannot predict or model systems of this scope or forces that control them.
@ Pragmatic Fabricator. This is what I can remember about the forces of influence that each body has on the planet Earth from greatest to the smallest. First the Moon, then the Sun, Venus, Mars all depending on the distance, Jupiter, Mercury, some of the largest asteroids, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto. I think that is the correct order. In reference to gravity, an object will continue in perpetual motion in space, the same velocity, until it is slowed down by something that exerts gravity on it. I imagine that these gravity waves operate in the same manner. I don’t see why something that is travelling through the void of space could not impact the planet in someway and cause a bit of additional stress on a fault that is ready to snap.
Now what I have personally noticed is that earthquakes and other movement seems to be triggered by slightly “out of near perfect alignment”. It seems that when everything is in alignment that everything is more balanced. It is before or after these alignments that events seem to occur. It is almost like a shear type affect.
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles has found that earthquakes in California have occurred more often when the moon is at near the furthest point from the ecliptic, north or south of it. The ecliptic is the middle point of the sky. Looking up the “moon ephemeris” will tell you what the and latitude of the moon, the highest and near highest numbers indicate when California is more prone to earthquakes due to the moon. A book I have called The American Ephemeris shows the latitude of the moon each day, published by ACS publications. You can also get the moon’s latitude from several web sites. I imagine that earthquakes have also been triggered by higher magnetic fields created the sun.
I have found that earthquakes are like when you are breaking a stick over your knee, the stick quivers in different spots away from the main break. Larger earthquakes seem to behave in the same manner. These larger earthquakes have foreshocks to them, but these foreshocks are away from the main shock that breaks days or weeks later. Look at a 6.5 or larger earthquake sometime and then look back at all the earthquakes that were at least 4.3 in size to about a 6.0 that have occurred AFTER the last bigger earthquake, and you will see that these earthquakes form a pattern that kind of like points back to the main shock. The same way a fire that has burned area points back to where it started.
This is what TRUE SCIENCE is, to look outside the box of traditional science to what actually works. Looking back at past earthquakes is the same way that the Farmer’s Almanacs forecast weather patterns, there go by the past to predict the future. If there was many straight years of a certain weather pattern that what is due is something different. They also use warm water currents such as El Nino, cooler water, La Nina. They use science that is not accepted as science, but they are often quite correct. There is so much to learn, and these so called scientists are still so clueless because they refuse to take off their blinders and open their minds to new UNCONVENTIONAL theories.
first earthquake i have ever experienced here in Kansas in my 33 years, and everyone else all the way up to 80years of age has also never experienced an earthquake here in kansas. was sitting on the couch with my wife at about 1030pm and first the doors started rattling, then the couch started shaking back and forth. strange times we are living in. prepare my friends.
Sunspot 1339 has already produced an X-class flare and continues to producing M-class flares. It isn’t even facing the earth yet and has the capability of creating these huge flares. This is a spot to watch very closely over the next week or 2 while it rotates across the face of the sun. An excellent site to monitor sun activity is http://www.solarham.com. It’s busy with lots of information and education on the sun.
@ Chiller. You are right that flare was classified as a X-28, not a X-19. I can still remember that one and how everyone was worried about it, but it was out of the direction of the planet. This one will probably be out of the Earth facing direction in the next 6 days or so. Those sunspot regions rotate pretty quickly, there is a fairly narrow window in which it is Earth facing. It seems like to have more than a glancing blow to the planet, the sunspot would have to be within 30 degrees or so of the center plane of the sun.
I am glad you brought up this error on my part of it being a X-19, you are right, it was a X-28 or more. Sunspot 1339 does have potential to wreck a lot, but it just does not look like the same as some of the other sunspots that did flare up massive X classes. The word I am looking for is it looks less turbulent, like what you see in the aftermath of a thunderstorm. Just a visual observances I have. Same time of year also as 8 years ago, that is kind of strange.
It’s a game of Russian roulette.
That new sunspot 1339 is many times the size of the earth.
For comparison, if the Sun was the size of a beach ball the earth would be the size of a pea.
A direct hit by a large CME from the sun is a rare thing. Glancing blows are quite hazardous. It’s pot luck really – or should that be pot UN luck.
The reality is that time and statistics are not on our side. It’s only a matter of time.
@ Beano. A glancing blow would be awful for the satellites and this could lead to the world’s militaries being blinded and doing something really stupid. A direct CME are rare, exactly, 1859. A direct CME is probably what would be needed to cause true damage on the planet though. Even in Quebec in I believe 1989, the damage was isolated from a flare. A glancing blow from this could fry every satellite up there facing the material coming this way and that could cause enormous problems.
One thing I was thinking about last night was how a CME will almost certainly only fry our electronics during the day, sun facing side. At least at night those facing away will not be likely affected until the morning if the thing is still going on. It is kind of like that wonderful science fiction Outer Limits episode called “Inconsistent Moon”, in which the sun unleased a massive solar flare thaqt lit up the moon and the character in the show thought the sun had gone nova because they were on the dark side of the planet. Good episode to watch for those that like science fiction and possible future events that could happen with the sun.
“greater than 95 minute average time frame between eruptions at Old Faithful as an indication of something brewing, like a pressure cooker with no steam outlet” sounds more like an earthquake where the pressure isn’t being released. It seems the geyser is the opposite as it always can be released. The lunar cycle has to have something to do with it. Quite often, 4 or 5 days after a new moon the geyser has the most steady eruption times. Iben Browning used to say tidal forces are triggers. (Similar to going by and tapping a pressure cooker with a hammer.) By doing so, you can be sure to be there when it explodes. Scientists know which faults have a lot of pressure built up. The New Madrid comes to mind with the various quakes in the midwest. Tidal force peaks are often in December or January. I went back 100 years and we seem to have economic problems during periods with mulitiple eclipses. 2003-2008 had two lunar and solar eclipses which is mild. Then we have a number of years with mulitple solar or lunar eclipses. The next calm period is the early 2020s which was what we had in the later 1980s and most of the 1990s. Stock market participants talk about the decade cycle where stocks struggle early, do well, and struggle late each decade. I wonder if it’s more of a sunspot and volcanic activity cycle. Interestingly, volcanic activity is up about 50% since the 1997 low. The climate cooled after the low. Cool, wet growing conditions aren’t what farmers want.
It is fun to speculate. But, just like a supervolcano erupting tomorrow, an x 30 flare is probably not going to happen. We have been hit with x class flares before. No big deal. Might create some nice lights.
@ray, x-class flares get potentially ‘dangerous’ when they are higher in magnitude. Although we’ve been hit by quite a-lot of x-class flares below, say, x10, without much of an issue… when you start talking about x20′s and greater, that’s very significant. Back in 1989, Quebec Province in Canada lost their grid when the strongest solar magnetic storm in 50 years blew it out. Do some research on the 1859 solar superstorm, and you will discover that if that had occurred today, we would all be without power.
In addition, there is no way to say that it won’t happen tomorrow, because they are entirely unpredictable. It could even happen during a solar minimum. We just don’t know.
You are correct though about most of these storms creating ‘some nice lights’…
has anybody noticed that every time a big scary sunspot aligns itself with EARTH it strangely goes into sleep mode and as soon as it is out of sight it has a burst of energy , this seems to happen a lot with the bigger sunspots
@ lee. Like these big frightening looking thunderstorms that fire up then go through a blow out process and burn out. There has to be the RIGHT conditions for a super cell to develop, and like the sun these sunspots have to have the right conditions also. I have found that many physical aspects of nature have similar phenomenon with each other. Unless the conditions are correct these super flares do not develop.
Unfortunately, unlike these super cells that develop over the plains of the U.S., people cannot really peer into the sun and see what is going on and tell when the conditions are ripe for a massive X flare that will fry modern technology in many places in the world. A suggestion to possibly predict a future flare is to look back at pictures of the sun a week or so before some of the past super flares and try to see some pattern and compare it to the present sunspot. I don’t know how someone could get pictures of the sun right before some of the past flares occurred though.
Was looking at SpaceWeather.com this morning and the sun is beginning to look like a shotgun pattern. I like to compare nature to other physical features, and what should worry everyone is IF these sunspots start to merge into each other. With a hurricane this is what starts to happen, thunderstorms begin to collect together and form a superthunderstorm, the hurricane itself. I know it is not that simple, but the conception is there. When something pulls together like if these sunspots could or something in the future, you might have a TRUE super sunspot that is many magnitudes bigger than 1339 and will throw more than JUST an EMP flare at the Earth.
Farfetched as it sounds, try to imagine 15 or so sunspots merging together into a super spot. Not only does something like this pose an extreme danger, but it also could draw other turbulent regions towards it to further strengthen it. People think of a super flare X-100 or bigger frying every electronic device on the planet, they forget about the radiation and gamma rays hitting the planet. The atmosphere can only protect us so much. This is what worries me, a merging of smaller spots into a mega spot capable of a flare that could not only EMP us, but send a plasma tsunami that would affect the biological aspect of the planet.
Earthquakes, what significance is there with sunspots and the shakes, in NZ there is very little sun at the most of times but there seems to no tie because some of the shakes are at night. Does the start just at any time of day and culminates when it’s ready ?
Maurie, It is unproven, but some believe that earthquake activity may increase due to sunspot / solar flare activity as it interacts with the earth’s magnetic field, perhaps stressing the planet it ways not fully understood. It may not be relevant regarding the side of the earth that is not facing the sun at any given moment. The earth is a sphere and the ‘stuff’ inside is all connected…