The coming banking collapses, and the coming failure and disintegration in the global financial system (monetary, credit, and financial asset meltdown), is going to be fast and chaotic — and will crush society and the way of life as we know it.
What will be the mechanism of the societal crush?
An intertwined systemic banking crisis coupled with a ‘just-in-time’ supply chain contagion.
The likelihood of a food security crisis within days in the directly affected countries and an exponential spread of production failures across the world beginning within a week.
This will reinforce and spread financial system contagion.
The longer the crisis goes on, the greater the likelihood of its irreversibility. This could be in as little as three weeks.
-David Korowicz, “Trade-Off: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion”
The systemic risk:
In the globalized economy, the growing complexity of interconnectedness, interdependence and the speed of processes (‘JIT’ just-in-time), coupled with the de-localisation of production have magnified global vulnerability and opened up the possibility of a rapid and large-scale collapse.
When you think about it, it makes sense. It’s logical. It’s complicated, but then again it’s not…
In a complex and interdependent economy, fewer failures are required to spread cascading failure through socio-economic systems. The risk of cascading failure occurring has increased significantly and will result in a sort of ‘domino effect’ of failures that unfortunately most people have problems seeing or planning for.
The likely cause of such an event would be a large-scale financial shock.
Failing banks, fears of currency re-issue, fears of further default, collapse in Letters of Credit, and growing panic directly quickly shut down trade in the most affected countries.
As the week progresses factories close, communications are impaired, social stress and government panic increases. After a week almost all businesses are closed, there is a rising risk to critical infrastructure.
Almost immediately internal trade and imports stops in the most affected countries, and there is impairment in a growing number of other countries. Trade is impaired globally via a credit crunch.
This undermines exports from some of the most trade-central countries, with some of the most efficient JIT dependencies in the world. This cuts inputs into the production and trade into countries that were initially weakly affected by direct financial contagion.
Globally, the spread of trade contagion depends on complexity, centrality, and inventory times and once a critical threshold is passed spreads exponentially until the effect is damped by a large-scale global production collapse.
Once the financial system contagion crosses a particular threshold the destabilization of the globalized economy will be exceedingly difficult to arrest; this point may be in as little as ten days.
Once a major system collapse occurs, scale, hysteresis, entropy, loss of critical functions, recursion failure, and resource diversion is likely to ensure that the features associated with the previous dynamic state of the globalized economy can never be recovered.
We are living in an unprecedented time of growing risks within a complex inter-dependency of major global systems for our very survival. We need to transition out of, and prepare for, a system which is seemingly teetering towards collapse and failure. Should the dominoes start falling, it will already be too late to significantly prepare. I do not know when this will happen, but I believe that it will happen. It will be life-altering and devastating (and deadly) for many. While even the prepared will be affected, those who stick their head in the sand will be affected much worse.
Source of blockquotes:
Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse