Posts Tagged ‘disaster’

Blind Acceptance

Guest Post: by ‘Be Informed’

I see this time and time again, where people that go through disasters, the vast majority of them are not prepared and totally caught off guard. Much of this is because most people see ONLY what they want to see and see ONLY what others in control want them to see and THINK. This level of blind acceptance of the way things are, lead to not doing anything to improve their lives, or being prepared for much of anything that comes their way that is out of the stagnant NORMAL that they are use to experiencing.

I say to those that do want to prepare and get ready, look at sites like Modern Survival Blog.
(Ken adds: gratitude… there are also many other great sites out there too – each with their own focus, interests, and something to learn)

For those that want to accept everything as just the way it is, take the following advice:

1. Accept that politicians lie and don’t keep most of their campaign promises, this is human nature.

2. Accept the two party system of the United States and vote one party in one election cycle, and vote the other in the next election cycle.

3. Accept any price of gas at the pump, just complain a lot about the price since it will make you feel better and give you something to talk about.

4. Accept higher and higher food prices and less food in the packages, just buy more of what you want and accept the higher prices as inflation as part of life.

5. Accept skewed unemployment rates of 8-15%, never mind that true unemployemnt is 25-40% or higher as just part of life.

6. Accept everything that the news media tells you as absolute fact, especially accept only the brightest optimistic outlooks no matter how unrealistic they make it sound.

7. Accept that the gossip news is way more important to talk and think about with everyone around you than any other national or world events happening.

8. Accept that the world governments have killed almost all the terrorists and any remaining terrorists are permanently stuck in some backwater country with a funny name.

9. Accept that disasters ONLY happen in far away places with funny names.

10. Accept that there will never be another world war, that people learned after World War 2 never to fight another war like this, that World War 2 was the war to end all future world wars.

11. Accept that the everyday life will continue as routine as usual throughout your life and throughout your family’s life for the next billion years.

12. Accept that the oil and natural resources of the planet will last indefinitely and they will always find new and renewable energy and food resources no matter what.

13. Accept that your electricity, any water faucets, your toilets will flush, your cell phone, your computer, and everything else will work, even after any interruption of these services.

14. Accept that your credit card will always buy what you need and there will always be some merchant that will gladly accept your credit card, and that being prepared means ONLY not being at, or over, your credit card’s credit limit.

15. Accept that if a disaster ever strikes your area that your neighbors, your community will always come together and be as unselfish as you plan to be and that “no one” will steal or resort to any violence during this desperate time.

16. Accept that your country will never default and your fiat money (dollars) will always buy what you need.

17. Accept that the government, FEMA, or other government agency is going to warn you before a disaster, protect you during a disaster, and completely take care of all of you and your family’s needs after a disaster. That is what you pay taxes for after all.

18. Accept that you paid out enough for car, health, life, home insurance, that most people seldom have to actually use, and accept that the city, state, and federal institutions will be the only insurance or preparedness you will ever need if disaster ever strikes.

19. Accept that even at a fraction of the cost off all other insurances, survival insurance such as storing food, water, supplies will never be needed, the stores will quickly reopen or the government will be right there handing out absolutely everything you need.

20. Accept that the ONLY self reliance you will ever need is that you will always be able to pay someone else to do whatever you need done for you.

This feeling of blind acceptance is far easier to deal with and it is far easier to have someone else do your thinking for you. For those of you that enjoy burying your head in the sand, have fun doing it, and see ONLY what you want to with those rose colored glasses. Self reliance and being prepared after disaster strikes is only for those that want to waste their money and time on something that your government is sure to provide you with, NO MATTER WHAT!

Ken adds: A good sarcastic post once in a while is good for the soul

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10 Global Disasters

Guest Note: by P.T.

If you factor all the probable events that would cause global effects, you may end up with a list as follows.

10. A star 3.5 light years away going supernova (gamma ray burst)
9. Massive CME from Sun
8. Methane deposits causing rapid warming
7. Middle East war (non nuke)
6.North Korea invading the South
5.Cascadia fault 9.8 earthquake
4. Asteroid or comet impact 1 mile plus in diameter
3. Nuke war
2. Worldwide pandemic
1. Yep you guessed it a VEI 8+ Eruption

For the record it is estimated that 80% of the worlds population could not survive a “super eruption” longer than 6 months ( off the recorded stats from WHO). In the west we do not make our food, we buy it. I know you are aware of the social unrest it would cause, and wars over resources.

Probabilities 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 all have happened before and will happen again.

Ken adds: The simple ability to grow some of your own food, if implemented by enough people, would go a long way towards increasing the odds during some types of disasters, at least in urban and rural areas. A huge problem of course, is the city – and city dwellers who for the most part are unable to do this. It’s just the way it is…

From this list, I often consider a Worldwide Pandemic to be in the realm of possibilities as one of the highest and probable casualty risks during our lifetime, given our worldwide travel and the rapid increase of drug resistance. A Middle East war and perhaps a limited nuclear war I also believe to be a higher possibility, the effects of which would be economically immense worldwide, while the casualties would obviously be regional to their locations.

Who is to say though… a massive solar flare and CME could rip at any moment, rendering our electrical gird useless for months to years – enough time to inflict massive casualties. Or the Yellowstone super volcano could explode and cover most of the US with ash and drastically lower world temperatures for years – causing extreme reduction to world food resources.

…all food for thought

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EMP – It Can Happen

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Does this sound like and excerpt from a novel?

The $h!t has hit the fan. A well financed terrorist group has hit the mother load. They have successfully launched a modified Scud short range ballistic missile hidden inside a specially designed freight container that was purposely placed on top of the stack aboard a container ship. It had left a foreign port and was now just off the east coast of the US, heading towards the Port Newark container terminal in New Jersey.

In a matter of minutes, the missile reached it’s detonation target 400 miles away, and 50 miles above the city of Cleveland, Ohio where a small nuclear warhead exploded. The resulting electro-magnetic-pulse, or EMP, instantaneously fried nearly all electronic devices within line-of-sight, about 700 miles, reaching well into Canada to Boston down the east coast to Jacksonville, and around over to Kansas City and Minneapolis. The nearly 1,400 mile diameter EMP blast zone covers the majority of the US population density as they are instantly sent into darkness as the electric power grid fails. A cascading effect coupled out beyond the blast radius, blows out the large custom made ultra high-voltage transformers all along the electric power grid network – sending all three of the major power grids of the entire US into blackout.

Still sounds like fiction? Think again. This is a real vulnerability, and one that would be absolutely devastating to our way of life, and one where our very survival would be threatened.

In such a scenario, where would you be safe? Who will be the most likely to survive and get through the disaster?

There would be so much damage to the electronic infrastructure, it could literally take many years to replace just the essentials such as the specially built custom power grid ultra high-voltage transformers which currently have a production lead time of two to three years. We would essentially be thrown back into the stone age. Most everyone would be on their own, with mostly no help from their disabled government. Nearly every vehicle within the initial zone will not start. Nearly all computers are fried. Financial information lost. Transportation systems are down. Water and sewage treatment systems are down. It is truly a nightmare scenario where hundreds of thousands, if not millions will surely lose their lives from the ensuing chaos and starvation.

Those who are living away from cities and population centers will have a better chance, especially those that have already stock-piled extra food (and water if there is none nearby). People that are already practicing some sort of partial self-sufficient life style will have an easier time adapting to a life without public and private infrastructure which brought the necessities of life to the masses.

Just stop and think about it for awhile. Just assume for a minute that such a disaster is plausible and pretend that it actually happened. Once you run out of food, how long will it be before you become very hungry, irritable, and then desperate?  The grocery stores will be looted nearly immediately. After a few days or a week I wouldn’t expect there to be much of anything available. Then what? Your internal instinct to survive will have kicked in, and you will begin to consider doing things that you otherwise wouldn’t, so that you can survive. Desperate times lead to desperate measures, including chaos and violence.

You will not be alone in this desperation. There will be millions of others. This will become extremely dangerous after a short period of time and further emphasizes that the best place to be under such a scenario will be far away from the dangers of desperate people. The further away you are from cities, the dangers will reduce exponentially, but will not reduce completely.

We hope that you take the time to think through this type of terrorist disaster, and others, while you think outside the box. The more you think about things outside the normal mainstream feeds, the more likely you are to take some sort of action that will hopefully lead to a better prepared life, or at least a state of mind where you will not be shocked or panicked should such a terrible disaster occur.

As they say, better safe than sorry.

Update, 29-Oct-2010, apparently a shipping container missile launcher now exists.



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How Much BP Oil Has Spilled Day 58

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Updated oil leak estimate during Day 58  (16-June-2010)

The US Government ‘Flow Rate Technical Group’, including James Riley, a professor of mechanical engineering at University of Washington, are now saying that recent high definition measurements have them believing that 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day have been gushing since day 1. The new estimates were made following BP’s recently deployed oil recapture method named ‘Top Cap’ which they initially stated to be capturing nearly 11,000 barrels per day, now upped to 18,000 barrels per day.

Although the US government estimate is dramatically higher than their last estimate, should we believe it? How much worse might it really be?


According to a Washington Post article, BP has now stated that the recapture capacity will be increased to handle 53,000 and then 80,000 barrels per day by the end of July.

Right away this exposes a conspicuous conflict. Why would BP state that they will have 80,000 barrel re-capture capacity while the US government states that the leak is just 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day (average 48,000)? Knowing that the US government nearly always states their statistics to the side that most benefits them, perhaps the oil leak is much larger than even their most recent surged estimate?

Matt Simmons, founder of the Ocean Energy Institute, a think-tank addressing the challenges of U.S. offshore renewable energy, estimates that 120,000 barrels per day have been spewing from the Gulf floor. His estimate refers to data collected by the 208 foot NOAA research vessel, Thomas Jefferson, and he states that as much as 40% of the Gulf of Mexico may be covered with oil beneath the surface. Simmons also believes that the only way to stop the gushing oil is to use a small nuclear device, similar to what Russia has done four times in the past under similar circumstances. If this is not done, he believes oil could gush for decades resulting in unimaginable world wide consequences.


So, who do we believe?

One logical approach is to average the recent statistics.

• US government average is 48,000 bpd
• BP claims recapture capability of 80,000 bpd by end of July
• Matt Simmons states 120,000 bpd

Average oil leaking per day as of 16-June, based on these 3 data points

• 83,000 barrels per day
• 3.5 Million gallons per day

Total oil leaked as of day 58

Including the BP ‘Top Cap’ recapture which began at 11,000 bpd and now 18,000 bpd

• 4.6 Million barrels
• 194 Million gallons

At $77 per barrel, this amounts to $356 Million, which will dwarf the cost of cleanup and damages.

To visualize the amount of oil that is leaking,

The oil leaking each day is equivalent to filling 387 tanker trucks per day (they hold about 9,000 gallons each).

Total oil leaked so far is equivalent to filling 21,583 tanker road-hauler trucks, which if all lined up in a row driving on the freeway, with a one truck length gap between each one for safety (just to make it somewhat real), would reach a length of about 307 miles!

If this were heating oil, it could have heated 242,813 homes during the winter.

If refined to gasoline, it would become nearly 92 Million gallons, which would provide a driving distance of 2.2 Billion miles of a vehicle getting 24 miles per gallon. That is enough to travel 88,707 times around the earth, 4,624 round trips to the moon, or nearly 12 round trips to the sun!

Update 22-June-2010, Day 64 – BP Oil Spill – Leak – Gusher

BP has enabled recapturing of some of the oil and gas that is spewing out of the hole on the Gulf sea floor. They are collecting some, and flaring (burning) some.

It began approximately 7-June with about 11,000 barrels per day. On approximately 15-June it was increased to about 18,000 barrels per day. On approximately 17-June it was increased to about 25,000 barrels per day.


Factoring in this recapture, today’s oil leak statistics are:

• 5,063,000 total barrels leaked
  
• 212,646,000 total gallons leaked

About 3.5 Million gallons of oil per day continue to gush from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico (about 83,000 barrels), while collecting and flaring about 1 Million gallons (about 25,000 barrels).

Original oil leak estimate during Day 36

To determine a best guess as to the amount of oil that is gushing from the seafloor of the Gulf of Mexico from the explosion of the BP Deepwater Horizon on 20-Apr-2010, we averaged several of the existing estimates, which themselves range widely.

Initially after the oil disaster, BP estimated the oil leak to be 1,000 barrels per day (42,000 gallons per day). Shortly afterward, the US govt. (Coast Guard) estimated the oil leak to be 5,000 barrels per day (210,000 gallons per day). Other subsequent estimates range from 40,000 to 70,000 barrels per day, the later seemingly carrying some scientific weight whereby a mechanical engineering professor from Purdue University used a method called ‘particle image velocimetry’ to come to his conclusion.

Not knowing exactly who to believe, we must draw our own personal conclusions based on our observations, instincts, and research (which should be true of just about anything in life – don’t believe everything you hear – question what you hear).

I estimated that the average reporting on this oil leak leads me to conclude that perhaps 25,000 barrels are leaking per day or 1,050,000 gallons – call it 1 Million gallons per day.

Assuming that this may be somewhat close to accurate, the total amount that has leaked as of this day, day 36, 26-May-2010, is 900,000 barrels or 37,800,000 gallons of oil. One barrel of oil is equivalent to 42 gallons.

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Disaster Preparedness – Are Your Kids Ready

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Are you prepared?

It’s 4:00 pm. and your latch-key kids and/or your teenagers are already home from school. You are still at work. It has been raining heavily all day with thunderstorms. Then it happens.

Suddenly the sky becomes so black, you’d swear it was the middle of the night. The power goes out because a tornado has just swept through your town.

Are your children prepared?

Did you ever prepare your latch key children? Did they know the safest place to seek shelter in the house? Do they know where the flashlights are kept? Do they have a list of emergency phone numbers to call? Do they know what to do if the telephone is out, the power is out, and the cell towers are down? Have you made arrangements with a neighbor to check on them in case of an emergency? Does the neighbor have your phone number at work? Could they survive for days on their own without assistance?

Perhaps you think you don’t really need to concern yourself with this. After all, you don’t live anywhere near ‘tornado alley’ where a tornado siren would warn you of an imminent tornado. Well, think again. Concern yourself! I lived at my parents’ home in Connecticut, when a tornado hit. I don’t think anyone in our town expected a tornado, but it hit and it hit with a fury. Not only that, but it came when the rest of my family was vacationing on Cape Cod. I could not get the time off from my job, so I had stayed behind. I was alone.

The neighbor from across the street had called me at work, and with panic in her voice, she told me that the tornado had gone right through my parents’ yard. There were so many trees down that she couldn’t see the house, so she didn’t know if it was damaged. Fortunately, she had my work phone number and was able to tell me that I wouldn’t be able to drive down our street as the fallen trees and downed power lines made it impossible.

At nineteen years of age, I bravely tried to make my way home from work. After negotiating many intersections with downed traffic signals, and passing numerous police barricades, I parked at the top of my street. Fortunately for me, I had a flashlight in the car. It was dark and I needed it to navigate through the debris and make it inside the house. The house was undamaged, but I couldn’t say the same for our cars that were left outside.

The power was out. I knew where we had some candles. Feeling my way in the dark, counting steps down the cellar stairs, I found them. Oh NO! The dog! He was in the back yard when the tornado came through. As I ran to the back door I wondered how I would find him….or would I find him at all or only a broken chain. I opened the back door and he ran into my arms! He was as happy to see me as I was to see him. He would now be my companion during the next 4 days without power.

Thank God the phones were still working. My parents called because they had heard about the tornado on the news. I told them about my journey home, the candles I had lit and that the dog was fine. Again, thank God the phones were working. My dad guided me via the telephone to where I would find the Coleman lanterns in the basement. Thankfully he could also talk me through how to change the mantles. Finally with a reasonable light source and our Alaskan Malamute, I felt secure.

The next three days would see me answering numerous phone calls from my family, friends who knew I was alone and neighbors who fed me baloney sandwiches out of their coolers. I had to travel out of town to buy more candles and mantels, but I made in through just fine.

Although my family was somewhat prepared, we should have been more prepared. I took this experience as a lesson to learn from.

Have you prepared yourself and your children what to do in a disaster? What if the disaster struck while they were away from home? Would they have the confidence and know-how to get through it?

Keep a written disaster survival plan

A disaster plan and instructions should be written in a binder and available to everyone at home.

During a disaster, children sometimes panic (as well as adults) or simply forget things due to the stressful nature of the situation. A well thought out written plan of action will ensure that important things are not missed.

For the disaster survival binder, consider including action items and instructions such as

• procedure or check list of what to do and what to check for safety
• turning off the gas to the house (how to do it – and don’t forget to practice and try it first)
• shutting off  the main power breaker to the house (there are circumstances when you would want to shut off the main power – such as flooding)
• list of contact names and phone numbers (if the parents can’t be reached, kids should be instructed to call a designated relative or friend)
• list and location of survival items stored around the house (flashlight, batteries, potable water, extra food, etc…)

Do you have water stored in the home? Enough for at least several days for each family member? (If the regional power is out, you may lose water pressure in the home)

Do you have enough non-refrigerated food in the house?

Do you have family drills or occasional refreshers?



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