End of the World 2012 and What To Believe
September 13, 2010, Submitted by: KenPermalink
I choose to look at the world ending 2012 hype from a scientific point of view as I search and read information on the subject. There are lots of differing explanations regarding the various galactic alignments and their significance. There are many religious viewpoints, predictions, and prophecies that are swirling around the topic, any of which I do not wish to challenge as people have the right to think and decide for themselves, and who am I to say one way or the other…
Looking at the physics of what will be happening during the 2012 time period is curious in that it does present some interesting galactic alignments and perhaps some plausible arguments that things could get interesting, or maybe not.
All galaxies are flat and circular, apparently with very few exceptions. Much of the scientific community apparently believes that the energy source which drives the rotation and shape of each galaxy consists of a “supermassive” black hole which exists in the center. The black hole spins at an incredibly high rate because of its incredible mass, and as it rotates it captures and accelerates debris and forces it all into a swirling disk around it forming the black hole’s “equator”.
I have read some suggestions that the galaxy’s equatorial plane at its very center, consists of a projected gravity plane and therefore will influence objects that pass through it in a particular way (In other words, objects passing through it will be uniquely affected). However a black hole apparently projects a spherical gravitational field, really no different from other objects, with no one plane exhibiting more force than another. This is one of the arguments.
Our galaxy’s galactic plane is easily seen at night away from city lights, and viewed as a dark band slicing lengthwise through the center of the Milky Way itself, although somewhat irregular in appearance. This dark band at the center of the galactic (equatorial) plane is thought to be filled with dust and mass.
Our solar system moves up through the galactic plane and then back down through the galactic plane in reoccurring cycles through time. In fact ancient civilizations like the Mayans evidently based their calendars on this cycle and called the time when we appear to pass through the galactic equinox to be the end of each age. Some believe this brings worldwide devastation while the Earth is sitting on what they call “the dark rift”. There is also some controversy regarding the cycle time of the solar system passing in and out through the galactic plane, and there are some that say we aren’t even close to doing so. I personally haven’t sorted out all of the angles myself yet, so I’m not suggesting either way at the moment.
The implications of the Earth passing through the galactic plane and its controversial gravitational influence is speculative, although ancients have described periods of devastation. My instinct tells me that the strength of this gravitational influence would be very small considering the vast distances involved, but I always try and keep an open mind while gathering more facts.
One might think that the earth-changes that we may be experiencing at the present time are the beginnings of the influences of the very thin band of forces produced along the equatorial plane projected out from the black hole in the center of our galaxy. The band is so thin and concentrated (relatively compared to the massive size of the galaxy itself), that it may only take one or maybe two years to transit through the dense region (I have also read reports of lesser time to transit through – months, rather than a year or two).
If we are truly about to pass through the dense portion of the galactic plane, we conceivably could experience the effects of earth stresses, assuming that the galactic plane forces are strong enough. In addition, our Sun will also be experiencing whatever influence that the plane will have on it. Not only that, but it will coincide with the sunspot cycle which will also be peaking in the approximate 2012 time frame. There may be the potential for extra powerful solar phenomenon including solar flares and filament eruptions.
We are presently experiencing a much higher than average number of earthquakes in several earthquake-magnitude categories, given the same amount of time averaged over the last 10 years or even the last 110 years. The tectonic plates, a thin crustal layer floating on top of an ooze of hot molten rock, are moving and shifting, causing earthquakes and volcanic activity. This is nothing new, however an increase in activity is logically caused by something… or maybe anomalous.
The Earth’s spinning core of molten iron creates our magnetic field and pole, which is now drifting out of position faster and faster. Again, this phenomenon is nothing new, however something is happening now which is speeding up the process. Pole shifts have happened in the past, and will happen again. It is somewhat unclear how fast it can occur and to what extent it will cause disruption.
If the “dark rift”, or the galactic dark band that we are apparently approaching truly contains dust, debris, and objects caught up by the swirling gravitational influence of the galaxy’s central black hole, then we may experience the risk of collisions with such objects, if in fact we transit through debris rather than just the theoretical plane itself. Most of us know that an asteroid, if large enough (several miles wide), has the potential to wipe us out all together. We have managed to map a lot of the larger asteroids within our own solar system, but we have no idea what we will run into if we begin to pass through the galactic plane of our galaxy. Personally, at this moment I believe the biggest 2012 risk is the increased chances of asteroid impact as we traverse through the dark rift debris field.
Having said all that, I am not a scientist or astronomer, simply an Engineer by trade with a curiosity of natural occurring events such as these. These are only my observations or opinions of the moment. No doubt I will be posting on this topic again as I put more of the galactic pieces together…
There are a ton of websites with all sorts of information on the subject, many of which are probably hype while others seem to point out possible truths. Make up your own mind about it, or simply keep an open mind.
If it turns out that we are not actually about to pass through the dark band (dust and debris), or the galactic plane itself, or if the gravitational influence of the galactic plane is not a concentrated energy source as some predict, then good… there are enough other potential disaster scenarios to worry about to keep one’s preparedness plans up to date.
If nothing ‘bad’ happens, I will be thrilled. On the other hand my survival preparedness tendencies will continue to keep me ready as I am able for whatever may come my way.
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Skyrocketing Magnitude 7 Earthquakes in 2010
September 4, 2010, Submitted by: Ken
Magnitude 7 – 7.9 Earthquakes are up 93% so far in 2010
The latest major earthquake, a magnitude 7.0 located just 5 km underneath the South Island of New Zealand, exemplifies the ongoing up trend of earthquakes in 2010. USGS statistics indicate that we have already exceeded the normal number of magnitude 7 – 7.9 earthquakes that the world sees in one year and we still have four months to go. As of this post, 17 magnitude 7 – 7.9 earthquakes have shook the planet during 2010. Normally, through the 35th week of the year only 9 or 10 earthquakes of this magnitude have struck.
Magnitude 7 – 7.9 earthquakes up 93% compared with the last 10 years
Magnitude 7 – 7.9 earthquakes up 68% compared with the last 110 years
Magnitude 6 – 6.9 earthquakes up 21% compared with last 10 years
Magnitude 6 – 6.9 earthquakes up 31% compared with last 110 years
Magnitude 5 – 5.9 earthquakes up 21% compared with last 10 years
Magnitude 5 – 5.9 earthquakes up 42% compared with last 110 years
Magnitude 8 – 8.9 earthquakes have already reached the average (1 per year), and again, four months to go…
Magnitude 7 Earthquake Map (1-Jan to 4-Sep 2010)
Christchurch – Canterbury New Zealand Earthquake
The magnitude 7.0 earthquake that struck at 4:35 AM during 4-Sep-2010 was centered near Christchurch New Zealand, located on a tectonic plate boundary between the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates. The epicenter was only 25 miles from the city of Christchurch, New Zealand’s 2nd largest urban area with a population of about 372,000. At least 500 buildings were destroyed, roads were cracked and torn, and a 3.5 meter fault line gash was ripped into the surface. The earthquake was the largest in New Zealand since 1931.
Of high concern amongst the rubble is the water supply. A damaged infrastructure of cracked and broken water and sewer pipes is leaving the population without safe drinking water and utilities. Within 2 to 3 days, if without help, desperation will set in as the human body cannot survive much longer without water. Residents are being urged to boil any water that they have before drinking it.
This disaster is a perfect, yet tragic example of the reason for a survival preparedness plan that has at its highest priority, a supply of drinking water (before that of food).
Location Map of Magnitude 7 Earthquake at Christchurch, New Zealand (also showing volcano locations)
Update, 22-Feb-2011, Another major earthquake strikes Christchurch New Zealand, this time much closer to the city and much shallower in depth – causing widespread damage.
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2010 Earthquakes through July
August 4, 2010, Submitted by: KenMap of Magnitude 7.0 – 7.9 Earthquakes through July, 2010
The number of earthquakes occurring from magnitude 5.0 and greater are more frequent than average so far in 2010.
Comparing earthquake occurrences so far this year with the comparable number that have occurred in the same time frame averaged over the past ten years as well as averaged since 1900, indicates an increase of approximately 28% (past 10 years) and 31% (since 1900) of all magnitudes 5.0 and greater lumped together and averaged.
While looking at the averages below, one category stands out even higher than the rest. That is, magnitude 7.0 to 7.9, having had 13 so far this year. Of note, there were three magnitude 7+ earthquakes on the same day in the Philippines (23-Jul-2010), followed by a 6.5 the next day. Nine of the thirteen magnitude 7+ earthquakes were located along the Pacific tectonic plate boundary.
Magnitude 5.0 to 5.9 earthquakes are up 22% compared with the past 10 year average and 44% compared with the past 110 year average.
Magnitude 6.0 to 6.9 earthquakes are up 23% compared with the past 10 year average and 33% compared with the past 110 year average.
Magnitude 7.0 to 7.9 earthquakes are up 68% compared with the past 10 year average and 47% compared with the past 110 year average.
Magnitude 8.0 to 9.9 earthquakes are in line with average with one having occurred this year.
Statistics gathered from the USGS.
The previous earthquake analysis from June
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Some Katla Volcano Q and A
July 22, 2010, Submitted by: Ken
Questions and Answers
I sometimes get some great questions and observations from our readers. Here are a few questions from Fred regarding the Katla volcano, which historically erupts following that of its neighbor, Eyjafjallajokull. I’ve answered them with my own opinion as an observer of the situation.
When Katla follows Eyjafjallajokull, is the time frame based on when Eyjafjallajokull erupts or when the eruption ceases ?
You can look at it either way.
Keep in mind that Katla has erupted many more times than Eyjafjallajokull. Katla has had 38 explosive eruptions as of 30 AD whereas Eyjafjallajokull has had only 4 explosive eruptions in that same time frame.
The interesting thing is that it appears not to be a coincidence that each of the four times that Eyjafjallajokull has erupted, Katla has followed very quickly (relatively speaking). Katla’s average time between eruption is 52 years. Eyjafjallajokull was 692, 209, and 189 years between eruptions.
Other than correlating the known year in which Eyjafjallajokull erupts and then Katla, the only specific month and day dates for Eyjafjallajokull are the following.
Eyjafjallajokull (1821)
START: 19-Dec-1821 STOP: 1-Jan-1823
383 day eruption
Katla (1823)
START: 26-Jun-1823 STOP: 23-Jul-1823
27 day eruption
Katla erupted 554 days (1.5 years) after the 1821 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull. You can also say that Katla erupted only 176 days after Eyjafjallajokull stopped.
We do know that Katla followed Eyjafjallajokull within one year of the other known Eyjafjallajokull eruptions (920 and 1612), but the month and day are not recorded for Eyjafjallajokull.
What is the time-frame relative to a Katla eruption as it pertains to Eyjafjallajokull?
Based on history, the longest time-frame was 1.5 years. So based on the 14-Apr-2010 eruption date of Eyjafjallajokull, that would put the Katla eruption to occur no later than October, 2011. It could also be as soon as tomorrow.
What would be the best indicator on an imminent eruption – if earthquake clusters , how many per min / hour / day ?
I believe that seismic activity and surface deformation are good indicators of an imminent eruption. When magma moves within the crust it usually is noticed by earthquakes or earthquake swarms. Although the presence of signature earthquakes may indicate magma movement, it doesn’t necessarily tell us how much magma is moving. It could be just a little, or it could be a lot. I’ve read articles that support this point of view and there are many factors to consider.
A tip-off would be a rapid change in what was considered normal activity. There is not a strict definition of an earthquake swarm that I know of because they are often different from each other. In the case of Katla over the past several months, based on my own observations I have calculated the average number of earthquakes to be around 2 per day, so we might say that normal activity right now is 2 earthquakes per day.
However, lately there have been as many as 5 to 10 in one day. If this activity were to continue at this pace or to increase in frequency of occurrence, I would venture to say that there is an earthquake swarm going on, many of which have been on the northwest side of the caldera, as of this post. I believe that Eyjafjallajokull was swarming with many more earthquakes leading up to its eruption.
If based on strength of seismic activity , what would be the tipoff ?
Another tip-off could be a larger magnitude earthquake than those that have been regularly occurring, or several of them. That is, above magnitude 3.0 in this case. Several higher magnitude quakes might indicate that something is very imminent.
Katla historically erupts following the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull (which first erupted April 14). Katla is about 10 times more powerful, and has the potential to cause worldwide disruption.
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The Pacific Plate Jolts The Planet
July 19, 2010, Submitted by: KenPermalink
What’s going on at the Pacific tectonic plate lately? A strong earthquake shook at FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA during 18-Jul-2010, followed by quite a swarm of earthquakes.
I just looked at the number of earthquakes in the region of Alaska, Aleutian Islands, while going back about a month. It looks like on average there has been about one relatively small earthquake every three days, more or less, with the occasional two earthquakes in a day. That is until 18-July when a strong magnitude 6.7 struck the region. Since then there have been many numerous after shocks, many of which are impressive in magnitude, as high as 5.8 as of this post.
What makes this even more interesting is that just seven hours after the 6.7 earthquake, a magnitude 6.9 struck at NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, some 4,600 miles away on the other side of the ‘Pacific Ring Of Fire’, the Pacific tectonic plate. Then, just 31 minutes later, boom, a magnitude 7.3 struck at nearly the same location. Wow, there are serious forces at work here.
I’ve plotted the location of the earthquakes, illustrating the distance between them while also showing the direction of movement of the Pacific tectonic plate. It seems like one side popping in Alaska may have stressed the other side such that it also needed to move in New Guinea. It also may be coincidence, but something tells me otherwise…
Does it feel like to you that there has been increasing earth movements lately? It does to me. I’ve previously reported on the statistics of magnitude 5.0 and higher with regards to historical occurrences, and the frequency of occurrence is definitely up so far this year, 2010. We will see how the rest of the year averages out, while I expect to do a new analysis during early August.
Hold on to your hats..
You are responsible for yourself, and therefore it is your responsibility to check your preparedness plans for you (and your family). Please, do yourself a favor, store some extra food and water. It’s no big deal.
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