US Power Grid
July 21, 2011, Submitted by: KenUS Power Grid
In the context of modern survival, electricity (the lack thereof) is near the top of the list of risks to our way of life, as it feeds systems that the majority of the population rely upon for their very survival.
If you really stop and think about the essence of what would or could cause real and life-threatening disaster, the loss of electricity or power grid failure is near or at the top of the list. It wouldn’t take much more than just a few days without electricity in major populous regions to bring on chaos and desperation.
Given the current heat wave that is occurring across much of the US at this time (yes, it is summer time), and the main-stream-media is reporting on the records and power consumption, it may be interesting to view some of the facts regarding the US power grid, where the power comes from, and what the power sources are that keep the systems of modern life running.
US Power Grid Sources Map
Nuclear, Coal, Gas, Hydro, Oil
US Power Plants Map
Nuclear, Coal, Gas, Hydro, Oil
What can you do to reduce your dependency upon the power grid? First, think about what supplies and services would not be available given a large scale power outage (the answer is, just about everything). You could stock up on extra food and water, you may consider sources of supplemental power such as solar, wind, battery backup, your own fossil fuel storage, propane – gas refrigeration, generator power, or other means of cooking, preparing food, preserving – storing food, access to water, sanitation, and countless other necessities of life.
Contemplate adapting for a period of time without electricity and think about what you would need to get by without it. Preparing for a short time, even a week or two, isn’t that difficult. Preparing for longer than a few weeks requires much more preparation, and the consideration of the likelihood that mass chaos and desperation will develop in your region.
The preparedness process begins by simply thinking about it…
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Chain Reaction Transformer Failure
May 15, 2011, Submitted by: Ken
Immediately following a recent strong thunderstorm and lightning in Dallas, this video was recorded by someone in the right place at the right time, showing many multiple transformers exploding in the night sky forming a chain reaction failure leaving thousands without power.
This is the very thing that could happen if a strong-enough solar storm were to persist over the Earth, quite possibly sending us back to the dark ages for a time. Imagine what you see in this video, but spanning an enormous range. This scenario is one of those that scientists are certain will happen at some point in the future. The Carrington event of 1859, a Solar Superstorm, will happen again, except next time it will affect a world filled with electrical systems whereas in 1859 we barely had the telegraph.
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Solar Event Risk to Power Grid
April 15, 2011, Submitted by: Ken
The electrical power grid has only existed for a sliver of time in human history. A solar SuperStorm of the size and duration of the 1859 Carrington Event has not happened in that time, and there is a general assumption that something of this magnitude (or worse) will never happen again. This assumption is completely and entirely false. It absolutely will happen again (do your own search-engine research on this 1859 event to discover the scientific facts to back up that statement).
When it does, there is a high probability that much of the world’s power grid infrastructure will be downed for years, and possibly decades. Think about that for a minute…
The effects of an 1859 solar event will be to burn out transformers all around the power grid. Many hundreds of the largest transformers are particularly problematic. Studies have shown that the time required to get any single replacement of these large transformers (the U.S. does not make them – the majority of EHV transformers are make in India) would be about 3 years. A solar SuperStorm event will affect many parts of the world, so the time to get these replacement transformers will likely be even longer. There essentially are no spares – they are extremely expensive to build – while taking years to build them.
For those in the U.S., since the capability does not currently exist to build these large EHV transformers, it will be too late after the event, to expand manufacturing capabilities. Expansion requires lots of electrical power – which will not exist. The process would be very slow and incremental – taking years.
Our reliance on the backbone of electrical power grids feeding systems that were at first conveniences, but are now life-depending, is a tremendous risk and assumption that we make while never considering the outcome should we lose power for a period of time such as this.
Hundreds of millions would surely die. It is a hard reality. If one thinks through the logic and scenarios of what would take place, it becomes very frightening to say the least.
While many will continue to bury their heads in the sand and poo-poo the notion of it ever happening, the fact is, it will happen. Obviously we do not know when, but many scientists agree that it could happen at any time, even today or tomorrow, but most feel that the odds are it certainly will sometime during this century.
A solar SuperStorm could happen at any time during a solar cycle, even during a solar ‘minimum’. It seems though that the odds are higher during a solar maximum (lots of sunspot activity), and we are currently approaching that time within solar cycle 24, which is due to peak sometime around 2013.
This may appear as fear mongering. It sort of is I suppose, but the purpose here is survival risk awareness, which in turn may change behavior or preparedness preparations. Preparedness, after all, is a form of insurance.
What can anyone do?
From a political standpoint, one could lobby that we have enough spare transformers in place, particularly the large EHV transformers.
From a personal preparedness point of view, one could simply start thinking about ‘what if’ and what you would do if this happened – how you would survive. It’s a daunting thought process, but it could save your life. Even should such an event never occur in your lifetime, the exercise of planning will have brought you more personal self sufficiency and self reliance from the systems that are currently depended upon today.
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U.S. Nuclear Power Plants, safe distance?
March 24, 2011, Submitted by: Ken
Map of U.S. Nuclear Reactor Locations
Given the the nuclear reactor meltdown disaster in Fukushima Japan, and the local area Fallout contamination that is now entering the food chain and water systems there, I have constructed a location map of the current (and decommissioned) nuclear power reactors in the United States.
Without discussing For or Against nuclear power, it may be smarter and a better use of time to learn some lessons from what happened in Japan that led to the the Fukushima meltdown, and to consider the potential risk for those living in the U.S. near one of these reactors – should a worst-case-scenario occur.
The problem at Fukushima: All electrical power was lost to the plant (earthquake – tsunami – backup generators destroyed – battery backup dead). This led to a lack of cooling of fuel rods in the reactors, which then led to a meltdown situation.
The underlying issue was a complete lack of electrical power, power sufficient enough to run the powerful cooling pumps.
Taking a simple look at the risks that may exist around any nuclear power plant, including the locations in the U.S. map above, the worst-case-scenario is always going to be one where the ‘issue’ leads to complete power failure. Without electricity, any one of these nuclear reactors will melt down, just like Fukushima, or worse.
A nuclear power plant being what it is, we would like to think that there is the utmost highest regard and oversight for safety built in to the design, construction, and operation of each one. But still, we had the disaster in Japan.
Not being qualified to asses the nuclear risk of the ‘what if’ scenarios, I still cannot help but think, what if this or what if that were to occur over here in the U.S. for example.
What if a ‘Carrington Event‘ solar flare were to occur, like what had happened in 1859. Astrophysicists know that it WILL happen again, it’s just a matter of when. If an extreme solar event like that were to take down the electrical power grid, and-or damage electronic systems from its EMP effects, how long would it be before any, some, most, or all of these nuclear power plants would runaway to meltdown?
What if a true EMP weapon, or weapons, were to detonate and take down all electrical systems of a region, or wider, what then? Are the backup generators and their associated electrical control systems impervious to EMP-type effects for example? What about the control systems of the reactors themselves, are they EMP proof?
What if the New Madrid fault zone were to unleash a magnitude 9+ earthquake, which geologists agree is possible, then how would the nuclear plants avoid catastrophe at the reactors in northern Arkansas, eastern Missouri, or others nearby?
What if the San Andreas tears loose in California, how will Diablo Canyon and San Onofre handle it?
What if there is an unforeseen ‘physical’ attack on one of these reactors? What can the containment vessels withstand with regards to missiles of various strengths?
What if there is a cyber ‘virus’ attack along the lines of the Stuxnet computer virus that attacked the Iranian nuclear development facilities?
These simple questions led me to create a map of all U.S. nuclear reactors, both operational and decommissioned, so to have a look see where the danger zones ‘might’ be, should a worst-case-scenario occur.
It is difficult to impossible to answer the question, “How far away is a safe distance from a nuclear reactor?”, so I’ve created 100 mile radius zones (200 mile diameter) around each nuclear plant to provide some visual perspective. Yellow zones are around decommissioned plants.
Remember, it’s all about the wind direction too. The prevailing winds in the U.S. are typically from west to east while normally dipping down into the south-central U.S. before bending back up the east coast.
Looking at the map density of the circle zones, I’m glad I’m out west 
Click here for large map of U.S. Nuclear Power Reactor Locations
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Magnetically Charged Spots Suddenly Dot the Sun
January 21, 2011, Submitted by: Ken
base images credit: SOHO/MDI
The sun has suddenly generated an enormous sunspot region, all in the vicinity of sunspot 1147. The sun is currently in solar cycle 24, which is now due to peak sometime during 2013. The solar sunspot activity has progressed in spurts of activity, although it has been much quieter than expectations lately.
Sunspot 1147 was originally very large by itself, however during the past 24 hours, lots of emerging spots of activity have been popping up around it.
Dr. Tony Philips from SpaceWeather.com and science writer for NASA reports, “A rash of small spots is rapidly emerging near the main core of sunspot group 1147, and this could herald an increase in solar activity.”
The reason he states that this is interesting is because of the magnetic characteristics.
He goes on to say, “It is an evolving jumble of magnetic polarities, with positive (+) pressing against negative (-) in many places. These are favorable condition for magnetic reconnection and solar flares.”
The daily bulletin from the Solar Influences Data Center in Belgium states, “The sunspot group located near the central meridian has been growing. An additional bi-polar node popped up. A sunspot group in a phase of growth has a relatively higher possibility to flare.”
The image above loops through 8 of the SDO telescope channels, each of them looking at different temperature regions.
The images below show sunspot 1147 in more detail. The size of the overall region would fit 30 Earth’s! There are an amazing number of looping magnetic points, more than I’ve seen on a sunspot group in a long time.
It may produce flares, and is pointing our way over the next several days, but no one knows how powerful they could be. The current thinking are for C-class flares, which really won’t affect your life. But the sun has been known to surprise us now and again.
base image credit: SOHO/MDI
From a preparedness standpoint, the risk is all about our electrical power, and the systems that we depend upon that in turn require electricity.
Just because the current sunspot activity is low does not mean that earth could not be hit by a debilitating solar flare. The Carrington Event (1859), had it occurred during modern times, would have likely wreaked havoc on our societies and would have probably brought down many technological systems that we depend upon in our infrastructure, some we could not live without due to the millions who depend upon them to sustain systems that bring food and water, and more.
Our modern electrical grid for example has not been put to the test from a solar radiation impact event similar to 1859. At some point though, it will be put to the test. There is no argument from the scientific community on that. The question is, will it remain standing after it happens. Many think not. The modern world would be kicked back a century or two, for a period of time that some say could last for years.
In the mean time, observing solar events like the current sunspot 1147 phenomenon should remind us all of the sometimes unpredictable behavior of our life-giving ball of fire in the sky.
Update, sunspot 1147 loop
Update, the region is rotating away, slowly, while C-class flare have been fired off. M-class flares remain a threat. Amazing magnetic loops.
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