7 Billion People On Earth, OCT-31, 2011
October 30, 2011
The Los Angeles Times headlines, “World population hits 7 billion on Oct. 31, or thereabouts”, serves to remind us that every day there is more and more demand for resources as humanity remains on a steep growth curve.
We have added 1 billion more living people during the past 12 years. That means that the world population has grown by 17% during that short time in human history, while we humans have been on this planet for… how long? You get the idea… in just over a decade, we’ve added almost one-fifth more, or nearly 20% more people to this planet.
We are rapidly adding greater demands and strains to our already optimized systems that mass produce and distribute items ‘just-in-time’ to keep these people fed, clothed, and presumably productive (which requires ‘oil’ in today’s definition of productive).
The take-away from this milestone is that the world’s resources are increasingly heavily strained due to this enormous population growth, and there is only one thing that can happen with this circumstance… that is, the prices that we pay for these resources will continue to rise as the demand for them increases.
The only way that this could not happen would be if there were sudden miraculous optimization techniques than already exist today in agriculture and natural resource exploitation, or new massive discoveries of surplus natural resources, or massive world depression with less production – productivity – and demand for resources, or massive population die-off.
So, it may be a safe bet to summarize that prices for food and resources will continue to rise as demand increases. And, even though our governments are doing their best to devalue their currencies, it may be a smart thing to buy some of these ‘life’ resources now rather than later.
What is it that I can buy today in order to save some money over the longer run?
Well, FOOD for one thing… Also supplies (yes, a very general term). Here’s an example… several years ago my wife and I bought a ‘boat load’ of kitchen supplies like bulk-size aluminum foil, saran-wrap, zip-lock bags, things like that. We’ve been slowly going through those supplies the past few years and have not had to buy much of any in ‘today’s dollars’. I look at the prices of those items today and they are significantly more money. So we have saved quite a bit of money over the long term by having purchased so much of it years ago (we also bought on sale).
So, you cannot go wrong by stocking up on consumable supplies and food TODAY, because their prices will ALWAYS go up over time. Not only will you save money, but more important, you will be prepared!
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Lessons from Russian History for the Prepper Community (Part 3-of-3)
June 16, 2011
Guest Post: by Brad
Scenario #3: The Kosovo War (1998 – 1999)
As many readers will recall (because you are not among the Sheeple who pay no attention to important events), in the mid-1990′s there was escalating violence and tension between the ethnicities and religions in Yugoslavia (for you younger readers, Yugoslavia used to be a country in Eastern Europe). During 1997 and 1998 there was a full blown war between different groups vying for power. During this conflict there were reports of genocide. Due to various reasons, NATO refused to sit by and let this fighting and slaughter continue, and NATO began a sustained bombing campaign in spring and summer of 1999. As a combination of the ground war between the various ethnicities and the bombing campaign of NATO, over 1 million souls were displaced and fled the region, becoming migrant refugees.
During that time period I was living in a Russian city that was close to the border. Literally tens of thousands of refugees from Yugoslavia found their way into the city and the outlying region. As you might expect, they were not welcomed with entirely open arms. As you will recall, Russia was still recovering from the financial crisis. It did not have money to spare. These refugees took up shelter in apartment buildings and other edifices that had been abandoned and condemned. I saw families living in concrete blocks where the foundation had sunk into the earth, resulting in the concrete floor having a strange tilt to it such that a marble would roll from one side of the room to another. There was no running water or plumbing or heat in these edifices. The families huddled under blankets to keep warm, and cooked over open fires, often made with discarded tires. Deplorable living conditions. And yet, they had shelter. There were many more who bedded down in the fields around the cities. As these refugees would wander the city looking for food and work, they were turned away on more than one occasion by the force of fist or boot. The refugees would then return the fist or boot with their own fist or boot. Violence often ensued.
So, again you ask, what’s the point? Well, here it is.
The mass of humanity that will roam the earth in search of shelter and food—like a giant cloud of locusts and which is sometimes referred to as “The Golden Horde”—is golden horde is a reality. The particular horde from Yugoslavia was unarmed, but I do not imagine that that would be the case in the USA. The golden horde in the USA would –I imagine–also take up residence in any edifice they could. Look for whatever food they could. Fight for whatever food they could. In short, it would look like one army of refugees against another army of refugees or an army defending its home turf. But the conflicts will be there.
So, the practical lesson here is, I believe, the golden horde will come, and it is to be avoided. It will be massive. They will work together as they are in the same boat. They will be after resources such as shelter, food and fuel.
In conclusion, these are three modern lessons of SHTF/TEOTWAWKI scenarios that actually happened. They all actually happened in a First World country. They are all things that could easily be repeated. Practical lesson: prepare accordingly.
The Siege of Leningrad
The Russian Financial Crisis of 1998
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Lessons from Russian History for the Prepper Community (Part 2-of-3)
June 15, 2011
Guest Post: by Brad
Scenario #2: The Financial Crisis of 1998
The causes of the Russian financial crisis of 1998 are complex and varied. I do not purport to understand all of these factors fully, and the factors that I do understand I will not attempt to explain in detail. I will, however, attempt to summarize the causes of the crisis before describing the aftereffects.
Prior to the collapse, the Russian economy was being driven primarily by selling commodities on the foreign market, as well as borrowing on the foreign market. However, when the Asian crisis occurred and commodities prices were decimated, Russia had difficulty paying the interest on its debts. A question for you: does the thought of a market segment collapsing (*cough* real estate, government debt, entitlement programs, etc.), leaving said market in a spot where it is hard pressed to pay the interest on its debt, sound familiar at all to anyone? Anyone? Bueller? In any event, the Russian stock, bond, and currency markets collapsed in the early fall of 1998 as a result of investor fears that the government would devalue its currency, default on domestic debt, or both. Again, sound familiar to anyone? (QE? QE2? QE3?) Markets tumbled, as well as the value of the Ruble. The banks shuttered as there was a run on the banks as people tried to withdraw their money to buy tangibles before prices and inflation decimated the value of their fiat currency.
Literally in the span of one month the value of the Ruble as compared to the dollar had decreased by 2/3. Therefore, when people were finally able to access their money once the banks reopened, it would only buy 1/3 of what it would once buy. Can you imagine having $100 in the bank today, only to go tomorrow to try and withdraw it and find that the bank was closed, and when you do manage to finally withdraw your money, it is only worth $33? That is devastating.
Again, you may be asking “Okay, but what does this boring history lesson have to do with anything?” Here it is.
When (in my opinion it is “when” and not “if”) fiat currency loses its “value,” those holding said fiat currency to the exclusion of tangibles lose. And lose big.
During the Russian collapse many of the folks who had cash on hand foolishly and impulsively went out and spent it on things that they were brainwashed by the media into thinking were important to have. Things like watches, televisions, and other electronics. They foolishly thought that the government would provide the necessities like food and water for them. Therefore, they figured, they could buy “nice things” and the government would take care of the “mundane things” for them. Mundane things like food and water.
What they saw literally two days later would turn their world upside down. Within days of the collapse there were–without hyperbole–guards with machine guns guarding the food in grocery stores. Guarding the food at outdoor markets. Guarding the food at corner convenience stores. The food had been piled up in the middle of the floor and the guards encircled it. You had to show your cash to even be admitted entrance to the grocery store. And you either had to have cash that was not denominated in the now worthless Ruble, or you had to have A TON of Rubles. A ton. Think wheelbarrows. People began to grow hungry because there was not access to food. Fist fights in the streets began to break out over bread and sugar. Break-ins and thievery grew exponentially. Long lines were created if there was even so much as a whiff that a store had cooking oil. People began foraging in the woods for mushrooms and berries. Fishing was everyone’s new way to stay busy. A barter economy started up on the streets.
That is what post financial collapse Russia looked like. And it looked that way for several months. No food. People spending the overwhelming majority of their fiat currency to buy meager morsels of bread.
So, what’s the lesson here? I suppose there are a few. First, fiat currency systems are fragile and subject to systemic failures. Second, and as stressed above, stack your larders deep and tall. Third, if you do have cash on hand, don’t buy foolish things. Fourth, and perhaps most importantly in the context of the “Houston We Have A Problem” post, don’t be fooled: folks will fight for food. In Russia they do not have an armed populace; we in the USA, do. The fists I saw flying in Russia over a bag of mushrooms could easily be bullets here in the USA flying over a box of Uncle Ben’s Rice. Stay off the streets, practice OPSEC, and be prepared for violence because it will happen. I assure you it will. Finally, a financial collapse can happen suddenly and quickly and have ruinous effects in almost no time at all.
The Siege of Leningrad
The Kosovo War (1998 – 1999)
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Lessons from Russian History for the Prepper Community (Part 1-of-3)
June 15, 2011Guest Post: by Brad
Modern Survival Blog is one of the six websites that I visit on a daily basis. The information and comments on this forum are a treasure trove of warnings, practical advice and food for thought. With respect to the latter, I was struck by the article and comments from the June 13, 2011 article entitled “Houston We Have A Problem.” The article itself, as well as the comments thereto, highlight the fact that there is a (growing) community in the world of people who are aware of just how precarious “civilization” is, what can happen when one of the underpinnings that holds “civilization” together stops working, and finally, what one can do to prepare.
It is with those principles in mind that I relate the following scenarios and advice. I realize that these are just the observations and recommendations of one man whom (likely) none of you have ever met. However, I hope that there is something in the below recitations that will be of some use to at least one of you out there. I find that the information contained below is often received with interest; sometimes “good” interest and sometimes “bad” interest. I think this may be because the information below is largely first hand based upon my own experiences, and the one portion that is not first hand was received by me from those who did experience it firsthand.
So, for what it’s worth, I am pleased to relate to you three lessons from Russian History for the Prepper Community.
I returned to the United States in 1999 after spending a very protracted period of time in Russia. The country has a deep, fascinating and sometimes terrible history. However, of moment to this article are three events that, in my opinion, are very beneficial for each of us to consider and contemplate as we go about our business of preparing. These three events are so significant because these events actually transpired in SHTF/TEOTWAWKI scenarios. By examining what actually transpired in a modern first world civilization during times of SHTF/TEOTWAWKI we can divine–to some extent–what would transpire in our own culture/geographic locations under similar circumstances. Thus, an evaluation of these three events can provide us with data for practical application as we prepare ourselves, our families and our communities. Furthermore, these three events are, in my opinion, important to consider because they are illustrative of what–again, in my opinion–are the most likely scenarios of SHTF/TEOTWAWKI.
The three events are, in chronological order: the siege of Leningrad (now St. Petersburg); the financial crisis of 1998; and the war in Kosovo. I lived in Russia during the last two of these three events and personally witnessed their unfolding and the fallout therefrom. With respect to the first event, I personally know individuals who lived through the siege of Leningrad. Each of these SHTF/TEOTWAWKI scenarios are addressed below.
Scenario #1: The Siege of Leningrad
During World War II, the capture of Leningrad was one of the three primary goals of the Nazi forces on the Eastern Front. The city held political, strategic and emotional importance as it was the former capital of the Russian Empire, the seat of the Baltic Fleet, home to numerous munitions factories, and the Russian bastion of the arts and sciences. In fact, Hitler was so fixated on the capture of this city that he actually had pre-printed invitations to the victory celebration to be held in one of the great hotels of the city.
The Nazi forces–at least 350,000 strong–approached the city of approximately 2.5 million souls during the summer of 1941. At the approach of the Nazi forces, 1.4 million individuals were evacuated from the city. Those who remained–men, women as well as children–were soon to be subjected to a long and brutal two and a half years. The Nazi advance was stymied through the resistance efforts of both soldiers and civilians, and the Nazis had yet to reach the city boundaries by the fall of 1941. However, by September 1941 the Nazi forces had successfully surrounded the city, although they were unable to break through the outer defenses. Nevertheless, the Russians could not claim victory. For a period of 872 days the Nazi forces laid siege to the city, bombarding its citizens with shelling and machine gun fire. I have personally strode past the signs that to this day stand as monument declaring “During shelling periods, stand on this side of the street to avoid death.” I have personally visited on many occasions the cemetery where over 500,000 victims of the siege rest interned. The 500,000 figure may seem high, but it is estimated that over 650,000 souls perished during the siege. During January and February of 1942 alone, between 7,000–10,000 died per day of starvation.
So, you may be asking yourself, what’s the point of this history lesson? Here it is.
During the time of the siege, the government seized control of the food sources. Rations were handed out–to those who could reach the supply tents, as many died on the way to the supply tents from cold and starvation—that consisted of 125 grams of bread mixed with sawdust. Those who were lucky killed and ate pigeons to supplement these meager rations. Many resorted to cannibalizing the dead (this is a documented truth; there are much more sinister rumors, however, that there were groups who would actively kill in order to cannibalize. One of my friends reports that as a child he was not permitted to travel alone as children would go missing. It was suspected that many of these children were cannibalized or placed into sexual slavery as their bodies were never found.).
Although we may not ever face a military siege of the type described above, it is (again, in my opinion) at least somewhat likely that a SHTF/TEOTWAWKI event would result in a prolonged food shortage. Such a prolonged food shortage could arrive in this country–or any other for that matter–by means of many things. With the ever efficient “Just In Time (JIT)” inventory systems of modern grocery stores, any disruption in the supply chain (a natural disaster such as a major earthquake or tsunami; a shortage of fuel to transport our food; a collapse of the fiat currency system; a famine; choose your own peril) would result in the same effects as seen by those in Leningrad during the siege. We would likely see government intervention and rationing that would likely be insufficient to sustain life as we now know it.
We would see large scale death by the mechanisms of disease, starvation and murder.
The practical lesson for me to take away here is that any number of events could cut off our food supply. Once that supply is disrupted the unprepared will die and/or live in unimaginably horrible circumstances. Thinking that the government or the goodwill of others will sustain you is folly, as seen by what transpired in Leningrad. If that happens, then people will die and resort to otherwise unthinkable acts. So, the lesson to us is to stock our larders deep and tall, and prepare to produce our own food supplies to the extent we can.
The Russian Financial Crisis of 1998
The Kosovo War (1998 – 1999)
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Population, Food, Oil … Collision?
February 21, 2011
World population and growth
Factoring the net birth minus death rate in the world each year, the annual increase to world population is about 75 million people. The current world population is about 6,900,000,000, or 6.9 billion.
Annually, we add to the planet the equivalent population of any of the following scenarios,
- New York City (9 of them!)
- Los Angeles (20 of them!)
- Chicago (27 of them!)
- San Francisco (94 of them!)
- Boston (117 of them!)
- Unites States of America (25 percent of the country!)
When you think about it, this is a startling number. And that’s in just one year!
Developing, Emerging Nations, and their Demands
Many regions of the world are, and have been undergoing an increase in standard of living, particularly the transitioning, emerging and developing nations, some of which include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa, all part of a list of about 150 nations that the IMF has listed in this category.
These nations are very quickly consuming more and resources (food and energy) to keep pace with increasing population and the demands of a higher standard of living, on top of the already high demands of ‘developed’ nations.
Energy, Food, Sustainability
Now stop and think about this one for a minute… between the fact that each year the Earth is burdened with the additional needs of new humans that would fill the equivalent of 117 cities of Boston (1/4 the population of the entire United States), coupled with the additional annual needs of all the world’s emerging nations whose population standards of living are increasing, how in the world can we keep up with these enormous demands of more food and energy, each and every year?
The answer is, I don’t think that we can. I believe that it is entirely unsustainable.
The food and agriculture systems are already maximized to the hilt in order to deliver just-in-time food to your grocer’s shelves. Feeding 75 million additional people each year is a tremendous undertaking, when you think about it.
What about oil and energy? As you know, oil is the underlying ‘enabler’ of just about everything that we take for granted today. Oil is ‘built in’ to nearly everything that you see, touch, eat, drink, and in nearly every product that you purchase.
How can the world’s oil producers keep pumping more and more oil to keep up with the increasing demands of developed and developing nations, as well as the burgeoning population that is adding 75 million new people each year? The answer is, they can’t! Ever heard of Peak Oil?
Peak Oil, Food Shortages, Higher Prices
There is no doubt in my mind that we are reaching the point of maximum sustainability, and in fact, may have already passed that point. When you think about it, while the annual demands for energy, food, and water are increasing so much, while the resources that are demanded are in limited supply… something has to give, sooner or later.
Peak oil. Food supply shortages. Higher priced food. Fresh water. There is only so much to go around.
One could argue that there are untapped resources of oil out there. But the thing is, the easy oil has already been tapped. The rest will continue to cost more to access, just like the 1949 gold rush in California where initially the ’49ers’ were picking gold up off the ground, but eventually had to dig deep into the earth to extract, all at much higher costs.
It wasn’t that long ago when so many families lived on a 5 acre farm (or bigger), and were largely self-sufficient, because they had to be. The development of the modern world allowed most of them to escape the labor of managing a farm and to instead go on and work within the system, a system that has brought great things to the world, while also having built itself an enormous bubble of dependency, one that just very well may burst one day.
Are you ready?
Diversify to be prepared
What can I do to be better prepared?
Adjust your situation so that you are more diversified when it comes to energy and food, for starters.
Consider having more than one source of heating for your home. Instead of relying solely on an oil-fired furnace, how about adding a wood stove?
Instead of relying 100 percent on the electricity that is fed to your home, consider adding some solar panels and/or wind turbines to produce some of your electrical needs.
Instead of depending entirely upon fully stocked grocery store shelves, consider growing some of your own food and learning how to preserve it for later.
It is a similar philosophy to that of investing. Diversify. Think about the things that you rely upon 100 percent, and then consider alternative ways of achieving those needs. Be able to adapt.
Are you ready?
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Grocery Food Supply Chain, Risks and Survival
November 29, 2010Permalink
I read a very good article today touching on the food supply chain and its fragility due to over-active efficiencies, much of which rings true with me.
Among other things, the article promotes the idea of growing ones own survival garden to augment ones own food supply, namely using the square-foot-gardening technique (something I will be trying in the Spring, rather than my traditional type garden).
More striking however, and something that I have been keenly aware of for some time, is the underlying excessive demand for efficiency which places undue risks on the systems that supply and distribute our food.
Rather than repeating words that I’ve posted before, it is refreshing to read the words of others who realize the same risks.
Here is an excerpt from the article, written by Giordano Bruno at Neithercorp Press,
Survive Anything! Chapter 2: Food Crisis
The problem of storage and backstock is widespread in the U.S. and the culprit is actually one which we have been trained to admire; efficiency. It is because of the over-application of efficiency in grocery models and in the freight sector that most outlets carry little to no backstock in goods. Instead, they order goods as quickly as they sell out, refilling shelves on a product by product basis. This means that in most grocers, what you see on the shelf, is all that they have. The speed of trucking deliveries makes this business model possible, but its operation suffers from a seriously fatal flaw…
Grocery stores may seem like a bounty of goods at first glance, but if freight shipments shut down, or even slowed, those aisles would empty within the span of a few days. Many households in America operate on the same faulty “efficiency”. They rely on the weekly trip to the grocer to maintain the pantry while also attempting to save money by reducing backstock. It’s a frayed rope holding up too much weight, a completely inflexible system that cannot withstand any deviation from the set routine. One unexpected disaster could render the entire food and agriculture distribution network immobile.
Many grocery chains also function on a line of credit from banks while operating at a loss. Profits are poured directly into the liabilities the companies incur from loans and then more money is borrowed to continue ordering goods. Some stores in the chain (flagship stores) usually bring in enough money to cover the red ink of the other branches, however, what if banks were to cut off credit completely to a grocery chain? Or maybe ALL grocery chains? The cycle of debt, to sales, to profit, to debt, becomes disrupted. Any stores that rely solely on credit to stay open for business would immediately lose the ability to bring in new stock. Again, we are faced with empty shelves in less than a week.
This scenario is entirely possible in the U.S. today, especially in the event that big banks institute capital retention in order to protect themselves from a further collapse of investment markets. Banks have already restricted loans to consumers down to the bare minimum. A restriction of loans to the business sector in the near future is not that far fetched.
Read the article in its entirety here, Survive Anything! Chapter 2: Food Crisis
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Wheat Crop Failures Leading To Food Price Inflation
September 5, 2010Permalink
Increased demand from an increasing world population in more developed countries, coupled with supply shortages from bad weather and poor harvests are leading food prices higher.
Russia, the 4th largest wheat producer, recently banned all exports of grain for at least 12 months due to their own decreased production because of drought, heatwave, and wildfires. The ban could remain in place until after the 2011 harvest.
Pakistan’s recent enormous flooding has destroyed half a million tonnes of wheat while at the same time their planting season is upon them and is now in jeopardy, and may very well result in no wheat production for a year.
Bad weather is expected to reduce Germany’s winter wheat harvest by nearly 10 percent.
The Australian wheat harvest is in question because of a locust plague and lack of rain, the worlds 5th largest wheat producer.
Canada’s wheat harvest is expected to be down 35 percent due to extraordinary rainfall.
The reports continue to come in regarding weather extremes causing crop damage and failures. The circumstances couldn’t be at a worse time while people around the globe already suffer from poor economic times. The effects of wheat crop failures will trickle into many foods resulting in much higher prices. Already wheat prices have increased 45 percent since Russia’s export ban.
In our current world of uncertainty, examples like this serve as a wake-up call that we are increasingly vulnerable and dependent upon the supply and distribution chains that we rely upon for survival. Disruptions of these supply chains cause price increases at best, and starvation, riots, and death at worst.
Perhaps we should strive to be more self-sufficient in some ways, to decrease our risk and dependencies upon others. We can combat food price inflation by growing some of our own food, buying in bulk, learning how to preserve foods, or even learning how to make foods like bread from the basic non-processed ingredients (this will not only save you lots of money, but will likely be much healthier).
Modern survival means anticipating, preparing for, and recognizing the modern day dependencies that exist all around us. Technology has enabled tremendous numbers of the world population to live at ease and comfort while not having to know the skills that would be required to survive by yourself or in small groups. Don’t be fooled into thinking that all this will remain to be as it is, comfortable and easy. There are many forces at work, both natural and human, that could bring it all down a notch or two.
Be prepared and live a happier life knowing a few skills such as growing a garden or preserving your own foods. You will do your part fighting food price inflation and you will most likely sleep better at night ;=)
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