Iran: Strait of Hormuz
December 28, 2011, Submitted by: Ken Tweet
Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
Hormuz is the world’s most important oil choke-point due to its daily oil flow of 15.5 million barrels.
Flows through the Strait in 2009 are roughly 33 percent of all seaborne traded oil or 17 percent of oil traded worldwide.
On average, 13 crude oil tankers per day passed eastbound through the Strait with a corresponding amount of empty tankers entering westbound to pick up new cargo.
At its narrowest point, the Strait is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles, separated by a two-mile buffer zone.
The Strait is deep and wide enough to handle the world’s largest crude oil tankers, with about two-thirds of oil shipments carried by tankers in excess of 150,000 deadweight tons.
To traverse the Strait, ships pass through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman.
So… how much would the price of oil and gasoline soar to ‘if’ Iran were to cause trouble here, as they are currently threatening to do??
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran’s armed forces is really easy … or as Iranians say, it will be easier than drinking a glass of water,” Iran’s navy chief Habibollah Sayyari told Iran’s English-language Press TV on Wednesday.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday it would not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran threatened to stop ships moving through the world’s most important oil route.
Source: Reuters
The Foundations For Global Conflict
The success of an Iranian backed closure of the Straits, even for a short period of time, could unleash regional chaos in an area already beset by public uprisings against the established order. Iraq, already divided by regional power-demarcation, could re-collapse into wholesale anarchy.
An EU-wide embargo of Iranian oil would destroy Iran’s economy in short order, and likely send crude oil prices significantly higher. The regime would be forced to act militarily to survive, despite its significant force inferiority.
Along with the chaos sweeping the MENA region, as one power vacuum after another emerges, open conflict with Iran has ability to conflagrate into an all-out global conflict of potentially catastrophic proportions.
Source: Jim Sinclair’s Mineset
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IF Iran does ILLEGALLY close the Straits, talk about a late Hanukkah gift to Israel. Good little Israel gets Iran attacked without having to do it themselves and get dirty themselves. Once again Israel gets their “bitch” the United States to do their dirty work for them and the United States gets stuck with the bill and the dead U.S. troops. All the while when the United States needs help from Israel and some loyalty, Israel is nowhere to be found. Talk about a parasitic relationship.
Now the issue of what is illegal. The straits are 21 miles wide, what exactly constitutes Iranian territorial waters? Nautical law is something of a gray area. Is it 12 miles out, or 3 miles out from the mainland, or do Iranian islands also count? Iran or any other country have the legal right to close their waters to anyone. This is the issue, what is legal? An attack on a sovereign country that is exercising its legal right to close its territory would be an illegal act of aggression and would throw all sorts of OTHER issues into the United Nations and cause all sorts of log jams with China and Russia that have permanent veto power. It would throw Israel and the issue of the Palestinian statehood into chaos.
Lets say that Panama closes the canal for whatever reason, they have that right, it is their country. It would be financial suicide to do so, but they have that right. Iran has a right to close their waters, THEIR PROPERTY. Going beyond this and attempting to close international waters would certainly be an act of war on every country that needs that oil, and Iran would be totally at legal fault. This is truly the issue here.
The attack of the Iran by the United States will hinge massively with whom was in the right and wrong. Iran will lose much support from Russia and even China IF they are in the wrong because other countries that depend on the oil to keep their infrastructure running will blame any country supporting illegal blockage of international waters. Iran closes their own waters, then gets attacked for it, this makes the United States look like they cannot even live by their own rules of internation law that they have used many times before as an excuse to attack a country.
Either case, when the missiles start flying, it probably will not stop in Iran. Hezbollah will start launching the mass of their 250,000+ rockets into Israel. Syria is absolutely looking for a war with Israel to stop the internal problems within its country. The ex-Soviet Muslim countries could get involved. Pakistan hates Israel and the nukes could start flying from that country. In short, resource wars have a tendency to explode from local to regional to even global. On top of that oil prices in the $300-$500 range and gallon of gas around $10-$15, and big time rationing of oil.
This could be just Iran strutting around like a peacock, or it could go a lot deeper than this. Iran could actually want war because they believe it will bring their second coming in their Islamic belief. It is in all likelihood a lot deeper than people and the media are portraying.
The U.S. military does not have the right to tell Iran who can and cannot come through their territorial waters. As a matter of fact, the U.S. Navy must ask permission if it is to traverse via the channel.
Stuff is going to hit the fan, and the bastards controlling Washington as jumping with glee.
@Mike; Actually no the U.S. does not, by international law, have to ask permission to come through the strait, they “ask permission” out of respect for the U.A.E. and Oman and it’s protectorate Musandam and the other Persian gulf nations. Just good manners and communications. The strait is considered international waters and is recognized as such by most of the nations of the world, through various agreements. The U.S. military isn’t telling the ass-clowns in Tehran whom can and cannot come into their territorial waters. Iran is threatening to blockade an international trade route that gives passage to 16% of the worlds oil. The military is just telling them to “not even think about it”. Don’t really see that as a problem, unless you really want $4.00-5.00 gasoline for spring break. Not sure which “bastards” you are referring to in D.C. as that does not narrow it down much. I suppose it could be the Dems, GOP, the Illuminati, the Bilderbergers, the NWO, the “shadow government”, the Masons, the aliens, CIA, other TLAs, the clone of Hitler or maybe Elvis, since he works at the Spy Museum. Since they are jumping with glee, I guess you know their identities since you know what they are doing. I just don’t have that kind of inside track and probably couldn’t be trusted with such information. In any event, survive well and enjoy. Best Regards.
@Ken; I would have to agree with the article that the strait would be easy to close but only for a short period of time. The IRIAF will not be able to maintain any sort of air superiority in the aftermath over the strait. Yeah, they have some BA aircraft but they don’t have the same avionics packages that the U.S. and Russia have. I would respectfully disagree with the premise that Israel would get involved over the strait of Hormuz. They have no goat in the fight for that. If the IRIAF does “come out to play” they will have their asses handed to them. In the process their active tracking radars will eat HARM type missiles. Which will mean that their SAMs will disappear as soon as their radars go active. The only way this can be screwed up is if the BHO administration doesn’t have the cajones to do what needs to be done and calls off the military and makes us look like LimpD/PencilD fools. The strait can be cleared in hours with the use of tactical explosives. The Iranians don’t exist in a state of reality, they are a lot like N.Korea. The only people that would come to bat for them in reality is the Chinese and their first carrier is still in sea trials. If they show up then the story will change, but to what remains to be seen. In the big picture the Iranians can stir up a short term sh**storm but if they push it too far it will be their undoing. AS far as a stand off drubbing of their air force, SAMs and navy, I don;t have a problem with that. If we hand their asses to them, THEN I would look for an Israeli air strike on their nuclear facilities to take place within days. Survive well. Enjoy.
All it would take is one Sunburn Missile, even with a conventional payload, to sink an aircraft carrier. Given the greater than Mach 2 speed, the Phalanx probably won’t coordinate in time to stop it. Russia has them, and they like to sell weapon systems to Iran (and others). Who’s to say… We cannot assume that other nation leaders (some of them fanatical) will be ‘reasonable’ and would never do such a thing that would likely bring on much pain to themselves. Sure, we could kick their ass – after the fact. But what worldwide repercussions would result from an Iranian regime who may believe that our current leaders do not have the will to play hard-ball, and may dare to upset the apple cart. I’m simply suggesting that we don’t dismiss the possibility because we could turn their country to glass – instead we should consider the chess game that’s being played and think wisely about the possible moves of the opponent.
@ Ken. I so much agree with Ken with the only one missile that could ignite everything. If the U.S. was to ever lose an aircraft carrier it would be a shock to everyone and the outcry to make Iran pay would be huge. The real issue with me is that Russia WILL NOT allow itself to be boxed in any further. If Iran falls it leaves the Caspian Sea region wide open. Just look at how quickly Russia crushed Georgia rather than have NATO gain a foothold in the Black Sea area. Just look at Kalingrad off of Poland how Russia is arming themselves there. Russia just tested two new ICBM’s. Russia was stupid enough to allow ex-Soviet states to join NATO like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, it WILL NOT allow any further encirclement.
I say stupid because the United States would never have allowed itself to have an enemy within 100 miles within its border. The Monroe Doctrine would lead to stopping this, like Cuba in 1960′s. Russia now realizes that IF it loses the Caspian Sea region, it loses, period. Russia will go to nuclear war before this happens. Russia will protect Iran because it is protecting its borders. The remaining oil reserves are locked up in the Caspian Sea region and China will join in a Russian alliance to protect those energy reserves.
To all of those that think that United States could defeat Russia and China in a land war around the Caspian Sea area are out of their minds. This is Russia’s backyard and a conventional war would be terrible loss for the U.S. The U.S. would probably not have to worry about losing a conventional war to Russia and China because the ICBM’s would be flying anyway. Yes, Russia can annihilate the entire world with what it has, this is a fact that no one disputes. All those politicians that are pushing to encircle Russia better realize the consequences of this. This is a tinderbox, a nuclear tinderbox.
The United States can hit Iran with airstrikes, but if they ever think to occupy Iran and bottle up Russia, then they better be ready to live the next few years in some underground bunker because this planet will be a radioactive ball of mush after the nuclear missiles go flying. I am not pro-Russia, but I realize what a country like Russia will do if it feels its borders are surrounded. The United States would do the same.
@BI; Not sure I understand the connection of Russia with China over the Caspian Sea. The Russian connection is obvious but the Chinese connection seems a bit obtuse to me. How is it you come to that premise?
@ TripodXL. China needs the oil and natural gas of the Caspian Sea region to continue to function, and China of course gets 20% of its oil from Iran. Other than the deep sea region or Antarctica, the remaining stocks of oil are in the Caspain Sea region. Some oil experts say that the oil reserves in the Middle East are grossly exaggerated and in reality but lower than the totals given, AND the untapped regions of the Caspian Sea are the ONLY oil reserves left that do not require massive amounts of money and energy to obtain. A pipeline from the Caspain Sea to China will one day be constructed and finished allowing China the energy it needs so desperately.
Oil tars and sands require a lot of water and energy to get the finished resource, a net energy gain of less than 2 to 1. The world will require some other energy source in the future because oil will become too expensive and too energy consuming to obtain. Caspian Sea will also one day run dry, but the countries of the world want that energy source until this time of depletion.
Good discussion all around. It is a sad day when the US projects weakness across the globe. The greatest cause for peace in this world is a strong US military projecting strength. When the US sends signals to fanatical leaders that we are weak i.e. “We asked Iran to PLEASE give us our drone back”….then fanatical governments are emboldened to test how far and how much they can get away with. I love Ron Paul’s adherence to the US constitution, but his foreign policy views are naive at best. A nuclear Iran would make the world a much more dangerous place.
Do you think it is coincidence that Iran is becoming bolder and bolder as we withdraw from Iraq?
President Barrack Hussein Obama says we won in Iraq and now its time to come home….but why wouldn’t we stagger our withdraw and continue to help the nation’s military & police take ownership as we drawn down? Answer: Politics. Barry Hussein also said that the Arab Spring was a good thing. Though I am no huge fan of McCain, I think he has a more realistic view of our withdraw from Iraq “a travesty” and I definitely think this adminstration’s support of the Arab Spring was idiotic.
Happy New Year
p.s. My Spike’s Tactical LE-15 carbine shoots high and to the left. All parts do seem to meet the mil-spec they claim in advertisement and I am very happy with the purchase. I do have to special order a $5 front sight adjustment tool as the old fail safe of using the 223 bullet nose doesn’t seem to work. Maybe just because it is new or maybe because of the A2 front sight vs A1? not sure. Take care.
@US Citizen…; As regards your Spikes Tactical AR, I don’t have one but know some that do and all have good comments on them. Now I’m making 2 assumptions for my statements, that you are right handed and this is a 16″ barrel. As far as shooting high, whether you are shooting a “sight in” routine at 25 yards or 100 yards, there are some caveats. 1. These routines (and sights) were made for 20″ barrels BUT use the SAME A2 sights on 16″ barrels, it will shoot high, that’s just the way it is. You might have to get a “taller” front post. This will depend on whether you are using a 6 o’clock hold or a “dead on” hold. If you are using the 1800hrs hold then WOW! You will need a taller post, probably if you don’t have the adjustment range. If you are using the more military “dead on” then you should be able to adjust it. 2. The high left is usually an effect caused by a right handed shooter, not shooting properly. Not trying to be an asshole, but I’m a very good shooter, shooting instructor and have experienced the same thing myself. Not “following through” can cause this, by relaxing as the shot breaks and moving before the shot has been “followed through”. Not having your finger far enough into the trigger will cause a “push” and go high left. While some will teach using the first crease/knuckle as an index for the trigger finger on the trigger, I don’t. I have found that experimenting with the position of the ball of the finger on the trigger, and most target shooters shoot this way, done properly and consistently will reduce the HL effect. It is possible that the sights need SOME adjustment, but shouldn’t need a lot. One way to tell, is with a new .22 rifle (yeah, don’t buy one just for this, this is just an academic explanation) as they are sighted in at the factory. If you shoot it and it is HL, well..you get the idea. The reason I say use a .22 is that it will be harder to shoot it AS ACCURATELY AS IT WILL SHOOT, than to shoot a centerfire rifle as accurately as it will shoot. This is counter-intuitive but it is true. A .22, while easier to shoot and potentially more accurate, will also show off all of your shooting faults, as most shooting faults are of a physical nature (as opposed to procedural), such as pulling, jerking, flinching etc. and the .22 will magnify them. Case in point. I bought a new 10-22 Ruger rifle. I hadn’t shot .22 rifles for many years and just knew my s**t didn’t stink. Put a little cheap scope on it and it shot……HL and the group sucked. WTF. Tried for some time to get it to shoot “better”. Changed scopes same crap different scope. Took the scope off and shot open sights, even worse and still HL. This is where I get the preaching notion about shooting being a “perishable skill”. “Surely it isn’t me?” I spent the next hour going through the fundamentals, step by step. Yep, it was ME. Eventually I got to where I could shoot a “less than” dime sized group at 25 Meters (82′) with open sights. Lots of concentration, lots of fundamentals. So practice, a lot. Hope this helps. Survive well. enjoy.
@ TripodXL: Appreciate you sharing your shooting expertise, you are certainly more knowledgable than I…and your 2 assumptions are correct – right handed and 16″ barrel. I was using military style dead on as that’s how I was taught and target was 100yrds. Though I am comfortable with the AR platforms and can get decent fist sized groupings (3 – 4″ diameter) with iron sights at 100 yards, I certainly have room for improvement, especially in terms of quickness and need to add some duress. Practice, practice practice.
I have access to a great outdoor range nearby, any recommendations on shooting drills? I don’t suspect I plan to keep iron sights and don’t plan to engage anything under 200 yrd.
@ TripodXL: Sorry, mis-typed. I DO plan to keep iron sights.
@ TripodXL: Good Lord, also messed up my “over / under”…..I meant to type that targets will not be OVER 200yrds.
@US CITIZEN…; If it were me, I would get a dedicated .22 LR upper and 3-5 mags for bulk practice. I buy my uppers form “Model 1″ and build my own lowers from RRA lower receivers. I have 5 of them (uppers) plus a .22LR upper, and have never had an issue with them. Any fast and dirty sh*t that you get in will be up close and personal. Yes, hone your 200 yd skill set, that’s just target shooting, but remember where your bread and butter is. Here is a drill called the “El Presidente”. It was originally a pistol drill but it develops great skills with a rifle as well. Remember, the purpose of a pistol is to fight your way to a rifle!!!! A rifle is what you use to visit “violence of action” on your adversaries. The El Presidente starts with you facing AWAY from 3 silhouettes at 15 yards. Your rifle is loaded with a 6 rd mag, 1 or 2 point sling (slung and and hanging down with hands on) with 2 mags for mag changes, one with 6 rounds and one with at least 3 rds in it. At your signal (get a timer with audible alarm beep for serious practice) turn and double tap each target from left to right (6 rds and slide locked back) do an empty reload (a combat reload is when there is a lull in the action and you remove a partially empty mag for a FULL mag, round in the chamber) and reverse the process. When the slide locks back reload with your 3 rds and pop a head shot on each target. Reload a mag after that just for the practice. The D-boys and the other bearded guys have a saying, “smooth is fast and fast is good”. You’re trying to be SMOOTH. To modify this, put a dud in the mag (centerfire only) and do the El Presidente and when you get to the “malfunction” do your SPORTS drill (slap, pull, observe, release, tap, shoot) and clear the malfunction and finish the drill. You can modify this by doing the double taps and coming back with head shots. Do these as a “walk through” and then raise the speed by 20%, and 20%, and so on, until you are “good” at them (i.e. smooth). When you get good at them, then move them back, 5 yds at a time until you’re at 50 yds. If you can do them at all at 50 yds, you’re good to go. Once you’re good to go, then change to centerfire and repeat. You can do the .22LR at about a 10 to 1 ratio and save a lot of proficient but quality is what makes you better. The reason I recommend the dedicated .22 LR upper is the all the controls and trigger pull are identical, all you do is change the upper. Muscle memory! Hope this helps. If you need significant consultation email Ken and perhaps we can work something out. Survive well. Enjoy.
@ Tripod: Good deal. Very much appreciate the knowledge sharing, it has been a few years since being completely proficient with the AR platform. And though the muscle memory and comfort level is there with the platform, I have since forgotten most of the drills we ran. Also concur with your viewpoint about pistols. Again, appreciate it.
@Ken; Well, yes there is the “back game” that always goes on but the complexity of all that is difficult to discuss in the brevity of a blog. They’re using the N. Korean BS tactic of “if the world does X to us we will consider it and act of war”. I also agree with the fact that the biggest danger is from the megalomania of the actors, particularly the Iranians and the N. Koreans and if they perceive that our gonadal fortitude is lacking (BHO & friends) they may do something foolish. The Sunburns (either one, Moskit or Zubr) are certainly capable of sinking a carrier, but the Russians don’t sell their top-of-the-line products overseas. They are a proven weapon system but somewhat dated and fairly large, i.e. easy to hit (almost 600# warhead). I know 3-5 of the Nimitz class are fitted with the SeaRAM system which is a combined setup with the Phalanx and the RIM 116 missile system which has it’s own autonomous fire control system and does not require coordinated control inputs. They also should be using the newer block 1+ missile, what ever it is called. These were in trials in 09 and 10. The other carriers use the RIM-7 missile system along with the phalanxes and they do use external coordination but function quite well. Also there are the countermeasures of the rapid-bloom chaff and flare systems and the electronic countermeasures that disrupt anti-ship missile’s control systems that are on all the carriers. This does not count the ECM systems of the aircraft over flying the carrier. I know I sound like a rah-rah commercial for the U.S. military (I am biased, after all) but a carrier group, while not invulnerable, are a formidable foe, even for the Russians or Chinese much less the Iranians. You are right though, the WW repercussions of extremely poor leadership on our part would be tremendous. I don’t think the average person understands how devastating standard munitions are though. I doubt we would nuke them, although if they do something CRAZY, WTF knows from this administration. We could bomb them back to the camel-age with conventional weapons. Survive well. Enjoy.
‘Gonadal Fortitude’, the best phrase I’ve heard in awhile
@ All. The really only important issue here is Russia. The United States or NATO or anyone cannot back Russia into a corner like a rat, they will respond like a rat. There was much compromise after the Cuban Missile Crisis with the USSR with getting them to pull back their nukes from Cuba, and it had to do with Turkey. The U.S. can bomb Iran and probably avoid a confrontation with Russia with the right circumstances. The U.S. and or NATO cannot further encircle Russia because Russia will do something and that probably will be the end of the human civilization on this planet.
Iran likely already has nukes, it wants to mass produce nukes like Pakistan can and this is probably what Israel and the U.S. want to prevent, and this makes sense. The Caspian Sea region is as off limits to the U.S. and NATO forces as Mexico and Canada would be to Russia or China. If allied forces continue to attempt to push into the Caspian Sea region, Russia will respond the same as the U.S. would to any violation of the Monroe Doctrine, WORLD WAR 3. Russia easily has enough nukes to turn this planet into a nearly dead planet, the U.S. intelligence should never forget this.
Here’s a visual aid on the number of nukes that Russia has… http://modernsurvivalblog.com/nuclear/nuclear-weapons-world-map/
(I know that ‘Be informed’ believes that China has many more than indicated here, but that’s another story…)
@Be Informed; With all due respect, guy, I have to disagree with the premise that Iran has nukes. One is that it is Iran, they would let the world know cuz that’s the way they are. Two, they would have used it, I have no doubts. They would have tried to smuggle it into Israel and set it off. Three, unless someone GAVE them a nuke, they have not detonated one and no one has done a test detonation on their behalf (like China did for Pakistan), unless you count the two little limpD demos that N.K. did. Four and this does not have anything directly to do with having a nuke, but setting one off for a test is a long way from having a “deliverable” weapon. The Trinity test was put together by theoretical physicists and the bombs were made by mechanical engineers, big difference. You have to be able to deliver it without the duct tape and loose wires. Actually Iran is doing all the wrong things (actually not wrong things, just not the most optimum). They like to brag and all their bragging is about Uranium enrichment and not Plutonium. They have not said a word about Pu, which doesn’t mean they aren’t doing it but it doesn’t fit their psychological (psychotic) profile. While you can make great bombs with U, you need about 100 pounds of it versus 10-12 pounds of Pu. The amount of effort that has to be put out to manufacture the HEU material would be better spent using a breeder reactor system to manufacture Pu for weapons. JMO but it does make sense. Survive well. Enjoy.
@ TripodXL. My assumptions are just that, I don’t know for sure whether Iran has a few or even one nuclear bomb. I base my assumptions on Pakistan, India, and North Korea. First of all to test a nuke, you use up half, a third, a fourth, or whatever of what you have, and like North Korea did they failed to detonate a nuke test for a long time until it was politically a right time to do so. Uranium bombs can and do work like what you are saying, I don’t know the actual amount of U-235 you need to achieve critical mass, you say it is 100 pounds.
Iran has been manufacturing and working with nuclear energy for a couple of decades and it doesn’t seem too farfetched that they could not have amassed a couple hundred pounds of U-235. No one really gave much to the Pakistan nuclear program and yet the scientists have provided them with dozens of nukes and because of Pakistan’s closeness to Iran shared technology is there. Pakistan and Iran also share the Shi’a radical part of Islam with each other. Really all someone needs is the fuel for a nuclear bomb to make it and it seems logical to assume that the fuel is already there. I think the effort is spent both to both manufacture the HEU material and the breeding reactor to mass produce the Plutonium.
I cannot prove this of course, but I am fairly sure that Iran has a couple of nukes at least and will not test anything until they have at least a couple to spare, like North Korea did. This is based on logic and seldom has logic failed to give me the correct answer. Of course I could be wrong, but I just do not think so. I think Iran is desperately seeking a Pakistan type of mass production. Nukes have only a 50-75% reliability rate with countries just starting off. In a nuclear war with Israel, Iran would want at least a dozen nukes, as Israelis targets would range from about 10 to 15 to end Israel as a country. One nuclear bomb is not going to end Israel even if it was a multi-mega ton right above Tel Aviv.
If I was going to guess at what Arabs would target would be Tel Aviv of course, Ashdod, Be’er Sheva, Dimona where their nuclear power plant is, Haifa, the Jewish part of Jerusalem, and other cities such as Ashqelon, Netanya and military bases, especially air bases. It requires many more nukes that the media tells us and this is what Iran wants, mass production of nuclear fuel to produce at least a couple dozen nukes.
TripodXL. Again, I have not been over to Iran, I have no idea what they actually have, I do not think that U.S. intelligence totally does either. Like North Korea, Iran is very mountainous and much can be hidden under rock. A report came out a couple of years ago about how surprised the world was how much resources and how many nuclear related facilities there were. Also they said it would require many more air strikes on Iran than originally thought. Iran I believe will test when they are ready, and the world is right to find out. Just look at the earthquakes on USGS, when you see a 4.3-5.0 that is extremely shallow in Iran, that could be a nuke test.
One another thing about North Korea, the first fizz bomb they set off registered only a 4.0 on the USGS, but the second was 4.7 which would be in the 10-20 KT range which is not exactly primitive. I look at earthquakes all the time and remember seeing this and immediately knowing each time NK tested. By the way I do enjoy your insight to everything, with Iran it is not only the logic I am basing this on but also a feeling. You to, survive well as I am sure you will.
Here is an article for evereyone to read I found that I do not entirely agree with but makes good reading to what Iran is up to:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/29/the-coming-war-with-iran-191694701/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS
@BI; My Firend. First, let’s go backwards. The CIA estimated a “few” kilotons in 2009. The CTBTO estimated the yield at 1 Kt, “slightly” more than 2006. After further analysis the CTBTO stated that with the input of 20+ seismic stations (that’s a lot of data), the yield was a little over 2 Kt. The 2006 yield was under 1 Kt. NOTE; to purposely produce a 1 and 2 Kt detonation means that, you are VERY, VERY good at making nuclear weapons or “you suck at making nuclear weapons”. To produce purposeful 1 and 2 Kt blasts indicates that you have the expertise and technology to make a (I hate this term) suitcase nuke (or satchel charge, whatever you want). The more likely scenario is that they suck. Just sayin. So the N. Koreans haven’t made a bomb equivalent to the Hiroshima or Nagasaki bombs, yet, so whom could they offer expertise to? I wouldn’t use them as nuclear consultants. Only the Russians have rated the blast at anywhere near 10-20 Kt. You have to ask yourself, why would they do that? Would they have some interest in spreading disinformation. Wow, can’t imagine that they would do that! Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would CROW to the world that they had a nuke, IF they had one. He is a little man with “shortman’s” syndrome, in an Islamic world, which really has to suck, as they view shortness as a character flaw over there. He has to act badass to function. You don’t build a nuke without testing it, that’s just part of scientific protocol. You yourself said that the probability of success was about 75%, that would REQUIRE that you test it or don’t bet your life on it!!! Otherwise it could really suck when you went to use them. You are right in that they have been working on Uranium enrichment for years. But here again there is a significant difference in 20% U for fuel rods versus enrichment to 90+% for weapons grade U. While the Pakis are “brother” Muslims, they (Iranains) aren’t Paki Muslims. It is easier to start a fight between Muslim brothers than Muslim enemies, trust me. I used to teach them (5 years, Iranians AND Pakis) and their way of being is significantly different than ours and what we think of as common sense, isn’t, and what’s normal to them is vastly different to us. Nuclear blasts leave a very specific type of seismic trace. If there was an “earthquake” in Iran, then it was ONLY an earthquake. We know when the N. Koreans fart, and we know when the Iranians fart, or otherwise. So a 4 or 5.whatever is just that, an earthquake. The logic of human nature indicates, along with the evidence, that this is so. Survive well. Enjoy.
@ TripodXL. Very funny, shortman’s syndrome, but Ahmadinejad really is not in charge. The main objective of the Iranian when it comes to the death of Israel is just that. One nuke just would not do it. Maybe I am using what I call Cascasian logic, but to destroy Israel, Iran needs at least 10-15 to work for sure. The Iranian and Pakistanian are different in that they are not your classic Arab idiots that do not make anything work, they are actually Aryans and have some degree of intelligence. As you know an Aryan is defined as an European Asian person.
To actually booast about having one nuke would be incredibly asinine, of course the Iranian might be at that level. You would stockpile as much as possible then test one or two to make sure you know what you are doing. Again this is Caucasian logic. You would never tell the world that you are at 90% enrichment because you put a big fat bull’s eye on your country. I truly believe when Iran tests it will have at least 4 or 5 other nukes rather than test your one and only nuke and then have nothing.
Now with regards to North Korea. I go by the USGS, and the first nuke was a 4.0 in magnitude that was a 1 kt or a little less, this I have no doubt, a firecraker. The other second one was 4.7 in magnitude and was not downgraded like the USGS seems to have a knack of doing with so many real earthquakes. A 4.7 is 10-20 kt. The CIA and the government does not want anyone to know that North Korea has the technology to blow up a Hiroshima type weapon. The next step is a thermo-nuclear device. I think if anyone is spreading misinformation it is this government for too many reasons to mention, unless the 4.7 was not accurate with the USGS. I did check other stations at the time and Japan registered a 4.6, and Norway had it at a 4.8, I believe Russia also had it at 4.7, but I cannot remember. I knew they tested before it hit the media because of the USGS registering it.
What I am saying is the first fizz bomb was accurate with the USGS, it makes sense to me that the second one was to. I know about seismic signatures also, we had to study this in college and nuclear blasts were also mentioned as they were still testing back then. I so much enjoy your humor as I am sure Ken does to, it makes this site so much more amusing.