An independent global think tank, LEAP/E2020, recently reported the opinion that “this second half of 2012 will really mark a major inflection point of the global systemic crisis;” “The shock of the autumn 2008 will seem like a small summer storm compared to what will affect the planet in several months.”
In fact LEAP/E2020 has never seen the chronological convergence of such a series of explosive and so fundamental factors (economy, finances, geopolitical…) since the start of its work on the global systemic crisis. Logically, in our modest attempt to regularly publish a “crisis weather forecast”, we must therefore give our readers a “Red Alert” because the upcoming events which are readying themselves to shake the world system next September/ October belong to this category.
All the other components of the global situation are in fact pointed in a negative, even catastrophic, direction. Indeed, in one form or another, more often on the inside pages than in big headlines, one now finds the following 13 topics (sourced from LEAP),
1. Global recession (no engine of growth anywhere / end of the myth of the “US recovery”)
2. Growing insolvency of the Western banking and financial system and henceforth partially recognized as such
3. Growing frailty of key financial assets such as sovereign debts, real estate and CDSs underpinning the world’s major banks’ balance sheets
4. Fall off in international trade
5. Geopolitical tensions (in particular in the Middle East) approaching the point of a regional explosion
6. Lasting global geopolitical blockage at the UN
7. Rapid collapse of the whole of the Western asset-backed retirement system
8. Growing political divisions within the world’s “monolithic” powers (USA, China, Russia)
9. Lack of “miracle” solutions as in 2008 /2009, because of the growing impotence of many of the major Western central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ) and States’ indebtedness
10. Credibility in freefall for all countries having to assume the double load of public and excessive private debt
11. Inability to control/slow down the advance of mass and long-term unemployment
12. Failure of monetarist and financial stimulus policies such as “pure” austerity policies
13. Quasi-systematic ineffectiveness henceforth of the alternative or recent international closed groups, G20, G8, Rio+20, WTO,… on all the key topics of what is no longer in fact a world agenda absent any consensus: economy, finances, environment, conflict resolution, fight against poverty…
As if the statements from LEAP are not alarming enough, yet another reason to be VERY concerned about the months ahead is the following chart from IMF.org which shows historical ‘starts’ of banking crisis by month.
You may ask, “If I am to believe any of this, what difference does it make to me, or what can I do about it?”
Suggestions include doing your due-diligence to discover what is really going on out there beyond your normal realm of input. Open your eyes to the fact that many of the ‘talking heads’ in the mainstream are peddling slanted information, at times bordering on propaganda. Take advantage of the technology at your fingertips. No longer are you limited to the mainstream alphabet news channels. Dig deeper and search out additional sources of news and information on the internet. It is often helpful to view news reporting from other countries, as well as alternative news sources from within your own country. The broader your input, the more likely you are to form a closer ‘truth’.
Many alternative news sources are suggesting that a significant world financial crisis is heading our way, one that may dwarf what we went through in 2008, a global collapse big enough to right the wrongs of the past. Given the possibility, it may be prudent to prepare for it in some way, so as to soften the blow as it is always good advice to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Every personal situation is unique, so plan and prepare as you will.
Here’s something to think about… during the great depression of the 1930s, more than half of the people lived in small towns and rural areas, and many of them knew how to grow their own food and preserve it for later – and knew a way of life filled with responsibility, dependability, hands-on skill, and self sufficiency. Compare that to today where most people who live in cities, metropolitan and suburban areas have little to no ‘know-how’, knowledge, or experience to take care of themselves, ability to provide for themselves, or practical skills to deal with making it on their own if they had to. It is estimated that 12 million people died during the great depression in America. Imagine how many would do so today? It would be staggering.