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Are Recent Katla Volcano Earthquakes Seasonal
August 30, 2010Permalink
During the past several months (July – August) the Katla volcano region underneath the Myrdalsjokull glacier has exhibited an elevated number of earthquakes within a fairly concentrated area at a bulge (Gooabunga) on the western flank just beyond the west edge of the caldera. Initial thoughts were that something significant had been occurring there, however I want to point out that studies have revealed that this activity may be seasonal and therefore expected behavior.
A study in 2000 by Einarsson and Brandsdo suggested that the effects of reduced ice load after the summertime melting combined with the higher pore-fluid pressure in the underlying crust may explain the seasonal earthquake activity. The water flowing from glacier rivers reaches its maximum in July and August. The resulting fluid pressure affects the highly permeable uppermost kilometers of crust near the surface and allows the shear stress to move the fractures, causing an earthquake. The effects of the annual variations in the glacier can sometimes take months to change seismic activity.
If we are to assume that the increased earthquake activity that we are seeing at the Gooabunga bulge is seasonal and normal, then all is well. We do know that Katla has always erupted following Eyjafjallajokull (which erupted 14-April-2010). Eyjafjallajokull seismic activity was in the range of a hundred or more in just one day leading up to its eruption. This increase can occur rapidly and point to an imminent eruption, so we will keep one eye on Katla as the clock ticks towards that day.
The Katla volcano could cause significant disruption to lives, livelihoods, and commerce (particularly in Europe), which is why we are watching it for signs now that Eyjafjallajokull has started the clock.
What does this have to do with survival and preparedness? If you live anywhere near Iceland and are downwind during its eruption (United Kingdom for example), things like your respiratory health, your crops, and your travel will all be highly affected. If Katla blows high enough, the globe will be affected to some degree by reduced temperatures and its trickle-down effects.
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