Sudden Activity at Katla Volcano
January 6, 2011, Submitted by: Ken Tweet
base image credit: Icelandic Met Office
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Having monitored the Katla Volcano since early 2010, a sudden grouping of earthquakes at and around the volcano during the past 24 hours is new cause for concern.
Approximately 50 earthquakes have suddenly popped around the region.
More alarming however are the 6 that have rumbled beneath and within the Katla volcano caldera itself, the most caldera quakes in one day since this author began monitoring it in May, 2010.
If that wasn’t enough cause for concern, earthquakes are also rumbling around the volcano that erupted last April (Eyjafjallajokull), the one that shut down European air traffic for several weeks.
Just a few weeks ago, Eyjafjallajokull began showing signs of activity once again, the activity being new earthquakes. Having been mostly quiet since the eruption ended early last year, Eyjafjallajokull may now be indicating that it has more in store for us.
Of greater overall concern is the Katla volcano. Reason being, it has the potential to explode with up to ten times the force of that of its neighbor, Eyjafjallajokull. The last Katla eruption was during 1918, 92 years ago, and is way overdue for its next wake-up call.
The average time between explosive Katla eruptions has been 52 years since it erupted in 30 AD. Katla has erupted 38 times since.
base image credit: Icelandic Met Office
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Since May, 2010, approximately 132 earthquakes have rumbled within the Katla caldera. The concentration of these earthquakes appear to be located in three general areas, as shown in the following image.
The largest concentration looks to be near the eruption of 1755, with nearly an equal number located near the eruption of 1918. There is also a build up of quakes along the northeast rim.
base image credit: Icelandic Met Office
MSB overlay
We know that it is only a matter of time before this volcano blows its top. The explosion could be the biggest we’ve seen in a long time around this planet.
Katla has exploded with a VEI 5 in the past (that’s pretty big).
Stay tuned.
Update, one comment to this post suggests that new detection equipment has been installed around the Katla – Eyja region. If accurate, this could explain some of what we may be seeing. My own experience tells me that newly installed systems (any industry) take a while to tweak out issues. We’ll see how this plays out.
Update, Apparently just days ago, new, more sensitive seismometers (and more of them) have been brought online having been installed around Katla and Eyja, and financed by the British Geological Survey. The reason for the British funding for the new seismometers and software is to give better clues and more advanced warning before Katla does eventually go ka-boom. Even they know its history.
Update, 11-Jan-2011, Having seen some of the recent GPS data, it looks to my eyes that GPS sensor ‘AUST’, operated by the University of Iceland, and located on the northeast rim of Katla, indicates that this particular region has been inflating – or bulging. This is also one general area where groupings of earthquakes have occurred. Other nearby GPS sensors do not appear to show inflation however.
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Most of the quakes below Myrdalsjökull (this is the glacier above Katla) are related to movements in the ice. All these quakes happen above a depth of 2,5km and are not interesting in terms of volcanology.
The quakes, which appeared in the last few hours are a combination of two things: More and more sensitive monitoring equipment has gone online around Katla and Eyjafjallajökull. This equipment can record events, which until now how happened unnoticed. It is actually freezing cold in Iceland (-10- -15°C, in the mountain regions even colder), which causes water to freeze and causes rock to breack. These so called frost-quakes look different in terms of wave-form on the seismometers and are simply noise. The can be seen in the IMO tabular view of the quakes as the ones, which are poorly located and have a really worse quality score <50%.
There are actually no signs that Katla is waking up!
@Michael, Thanks for the insight. Did this new equipment just recently go online? I’ve been watching the EQ’s on the Met Office site, daily, and this activity as seen on their maps today is unusual in frequency-of-occurrence compared to other days. This would make sense if the new equipment you’re referring to has recently gone online. I’ve read study papers explaining the frequent ice-induced quakes on the west side of the glacier. Hopefully Katla stays quiet!
Take a look at the entire island. Very active in the SW
@ Michael for your scientific approach to the volcano, very insightful. However I believe the volcano is very alive and active and anytime in the next few months if not sooner she will unleash her fury!!
Yes, this equipment went online in the last few days. It has been set up late last year and been tested for a while now.
This is one of the issues, that always happens, when you install new and more sensitive monitoring equipment. You see things, that have been missed before and which can be pretty confusing.
@Superwoman: Believe whatever you want, but actually there are no signs of Katla waking up. On the other hand, there are more interesting quakes deep below Eyjafjallajökull, but so far nothing is happening. Tremors are not up and so on.
Nonsense.
There is no indication for a Katla Eruption at this moment in time.
Michael is right.
The current quakes are so called “frost quakes”
http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/
But if you long for active volcano’s have a look at:
Etna, Kizmen, Tungurahua, Merapi, Kizimen, Machin, Galeras, Huilla and Ruiz
These volcano’s have started the 2011 volcano year.
For those Volcanophiles. Keep your eye on Dr.Erik Klemeti’s site The Eruptions Blog
He has people on the ground in Iceland with seismic equipment monitoring both of these Volcanoes.
His blog has become to attention to that other sleeping unknown : Chaiten
The new seismometers went live on January 5th
Only the negative magnitude quakes are “frost earthquakes”, and with some better magnitudes right in the middle of the Katla Caldera, it is clear that something is going on and the sheer number of quakes is alarming. Also, it has been colder in the last 12 hours than when the swarm took place, and there haven’t been the earthquakes or “frost quakes”.
Katla is up to something but these things take time because we’re talking geologically.
@David: No, you are wrong. The magnitude scale for earthquakes is logarithmic, so very small quakes have negative values. This might sound odd, but is completely normal. The frost quakes have a very low quality score (lower than 50%). Its actually getting warmer (and don’t tell me it doesn’t since I live in Iceland not far away from this place) and we have a severe storm happening right now. Severe means we have windspeeds which sometimes exceed 35m/sec. This wind makes a lot of noise on the seismometers and all the small quakes are getting lost in this background. Thats the reason why we don’t see any new quakes since yesterday evening. When the storm is over (which will take another day or two) small quakes will show up again. Katla actually doesn’t show any signs of unrest. If Katla wakes up, she will most likely only give a few hours of prewarning before the eruption.
Saturday 8th January 2011
Kizimen Volcano, Kamchatka
Eruptions continue at Kizimen volcano, Kamchatka with explosions and pyroclastic flows. Seismic activity is high, with volcanic tremor recorded. A hotspot was present over the volcano during the past week, which indicates a probable lava flow. On 1st January an ash plume extended 500 km SSW of the volcano and ashfall was recorded at Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Yelizovo, Paratunka, Nalychevo and all Southern Kamchatka. On 5th January ash emissions extended over 500 km ENE of the volcano and ashfall was recorded in the Komandorsky Islands. On 5th December 2010 ash emissions reached a distance of 838 km NE of the volcano.
http://www.volcanolive.com/news.html
The Icelandic Government has Already Warned of Activity at Katla. I believe them. Steam (heat from the Volcano) would cause all kinds of Ice Quakes. With the Warning from the Icelandic Government ( and their emergency decree) Katla is Active.
Additionally, Katla is not well studied. Nobody documented the last Katla eruption (1918) and some volcanoes are silent ( like Mt St Helens) they don’t give much warning, they just go BOOOOOOM, Comrades.
Ice is an excellent insulator, so with a glacier, I would imagine any heat radiating up from the deeper volcanic formation would melt and refreeze glacier Ice causing Quakes. They would be indicative of increasing activity.
Perhaps, some people hold stock in “airlines/travel industries” and don’t want an eruption. Sell Now, comrades. Volcanoes don’t Care what your plans are in life.
with the impending eruption of katla, people are getting worried if its another Eyjafjallajokull by disrupting comunal travel in and out of the uk.
but looking back at its past there is a very high chance of it being a bigger eruption and the winds blowing in the direction of england it will most likely happen, and the even warned us that when ever Eyjafjallajokull erupts that most certainly katla will and also that Eyjafjallajokull will erupt again
Katla will wake eventually, not to state the obvious, and will most certainly blow its top this decade! air travel will suffer and temperature will drop and crops will fail. start building extra stocks of food – be sensible!!!