Arctic Sea Ice, Thicker and Deeper
February 20, 2011, Submitted by: Ken Tweet
A fresh update from the Polar Ice Prediction System (the operational model run by the Naval Oceanographic Office for sea ice forecasting) reveals that the North Pole arctic sea appears to be adding yet more sea ice to its depths, as was first reported at MSB in an article titled, 70 Trillion cubic feet of New Arctic Ice.
The polar ice system gathers ice concentration data from the Special Sensor Microwave Image run by the U.S. Navy, and each day is run through supercomputer modeling software to provide accurate information for Navy ships and submarines at sea.
The image above shows the monthly progression of arctic sea ice thickness from November 2009 through February 2011 (20-Feb-2011).
An increase in the volume of ice is of course expected during the winter months, but this winter may be proving that more ice than the recent ‘usual’ is building up in the Arctic Sea. This may be one result of the present ‘La Nina’ that is underway in the Pacific equatorial waters, a phenomenon whereby the surface ocean waters cool, which in turn results in weather pattern changes.
Dr. Roy Spencer, with a Ph. D in meteorology and former Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center recently reported, “January 2011 experienced a precipitous drop in lower tropospheric temperatures over the tropics, Northern Hemisphere, and Southern Hemisphere. This was not unexpected, since global average sea surface temperatures have been falling for many months, with a head start as is usually the case with La Nina.”
Global temperatures have fallen dramatically during the past several months, one of the steepest declines since accurate satellite measurements began in 1979.
credit: http://www.drroyspencer.com/
In addition, the arctic sea ice concentration is now largely 100 percent. That is, it is now possible to walk across the ice from Canada, across the north pole, and over to Russia… about 2,000 miles.
The following image loop shows the sea ice thickness during the month of February for the past 3 years. It does appear that at least during these recent years, the arctic sea ice has become more prevalent – thicker.
So what does this all mean? It just goes to show how the Earth goes through cycles and trends, and that the current trend appears to be one of colder weather.
From a preparedness point of view, the current trend suggests possibly cooler weather on average, this Spring and Summer, which theoretically could effect the growing season and results thereof.
The cooling trend being a effect of ‘La Nina’ suggests that we learn more about it, and the other possible consequences of a ‘La Nina’ cycle (weather pattern changes – precipitation or lack thereof, depending on geographical location).
Maybe one bright side to this is that we may not need our air-conditioners as much this summer…
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I am confused about a couple of things here.
First, other charts/graphs I have seen have a color scale opposite to the one used here – here, red is the highest concentration of sea ice and purple the least; others, purple is the highest and red the least. I’m wondering why the choice was made to use the former color scale, and not the one more commonly in use.
Secondly, be the color scale as it is, the progression at the top of the page is *not* data of the past 3 Feburarys (Feb 2009, Feb 2010, Feb 2011). The progression itself clearly reads that it is showing data from Nov 2010 through Feb 2011, a period of time where sea ice is naturally increasing. The second progression *does* show data of the last 3 Feburarys, but no comment is made on the ice receding from the eastern Canadian coast or the Alaskan coast and how that might be affecting the climates in those regions.
Finally, I am wondering how the arguement can be made that the artic ice is becoming “thicker and deeper” without showing parallel progressions of the summer (melting) months of the same time frame. Sure, artic ice is growing in the winter. It also melts in the summer. Without knowing if the winter growth is successfully over-coming the melting that transpires in the summer, I cannot be certain that an overall annual growth pattern is occuring, or that an overall annual disappearance of artic ice is *not* occuring.
Please explain your position more.
Thank you!
Regarding the color scale, I do not know why this gov’t. agency chose the color scale (nrlssc.navy.mil).
Correct, the top image shows sea ice thickness from Nov – Feb, as is stated beneath the image in the post itself.
Correct, the 2nd progression image shows the last 3 February’s, and correct the post article is addressing the arctic sea ice rather than the entire northern hemisphere (“Arctic Sea Ice, Thicker and Deeper”).
Lastly, the article’s focus is narrow, only observing the apparent increase in thickness of arctic sea ice, both during the months listed, and during the past several years. No intent was made towards a ‘big picture’ viewpoint beyond the past several years regarding the thickness of the arctic sea ice. I believe there is a disclaimer notation in the post that indicates this as well.
So, in summary, I don’t believe you are confused at all
It was just a narrowly focused observation based on detail from this particular navy website which maps the ice thickness of the arctic, presumably for data to be used for their fleet of navy vessels and submarines.