Too many people on the planet requiring too many external resources, systems and services for survival, makes for a population bottleneck. The more of this worldly fact that I realize and see, the more determined I am to be prepared. Prepared for what? Prepared for the results of a population bottleneck ‘event’ (leading to either extinction or recovery).
Historically, human population bottleneck events have resulted from natural occurring disastrous events, such as an ice age. Incredibly, ‘only’ 70,000 years ago, the Toba catastrophe (SuperVolcano SuperEruption) is believed to have reduced the world’s human population to just 10,000 people, and only 1,000 breeding pairs. Think about that for a minute… we almost went extinct as a result of the subsequent 6 – 10 year volcanic winter.
Although natural disastrous events such as a SuperVolcano eruption, an ice age, major pandemic, large asteroid strike, or a solar super flare could still wipe out much of the world’s population, technological developments since the industrial revolution have enabled a massive increase in human survivability over time. Never before in history has the human species had it so easy.
During my previous career I traveled a-lot, which opened my eyes to the sheer magnitude of the systemic dependencies that a majority of the human race relies upon today. I did spend most of my time working in major population centers where these dependencies are often hiding in plain site – but these places are, after all, where most of us humans live (and curiously, most near the coast). Over the years as I would fly a-lot, I would look down and see the urban sprawl as it grew. I always found it very interesting to sit at a window seat, even though I was a seasoned traveler. It was always remarkable to me to look out at the lights below during the evening or at night, seeing the flickering ribbons of light along the systemic routes of dependency while realizing the food, distribution, transportation, utilities and energy it took to keep it all going, and us ‘living’.
We as humans take it all for granted… because it has always worked. There have been glitches, yes, but most people have not experienced anything major. And therefore do not even consider the possibility. As world population continues to grow (too easily), the demands themselves upon ‘the system’ to maintain the growth curve, increase steadily, requiring ever more efficiencies and quantities to sustain the consumption of so many living people.
If these resources, efficiencies, and quantities do not keep up, something will ‘give’, or break. A major recent problem with our current system of growth has been the financial system which has become extremely fragile, extended, leveraged, and weakened to the point of near failure. If this breaks, the other systems (gathering resources, increasing efficiencies and quantities) will also suffer and fail to a degree. This then will result in human depopulation to an extent, depending on the severity of systemic collapse.
The fact that most humans alive today have little ability to take care of themselves, leads me to believe that should our current system suffer a major collapse, that we will suffer a major human die-off. It is a frightening thought, but one that is not too far fetched in my opinion.
Realizing that we are apparently in a population bottleneck, is a major reason why I continue to do things that will help me to be better prepared. My thinking is that it WILL happen, hopefully not in my lifetime, but I’m planning as though it will.
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Too many people on the planet requiring too many external resources, systems and services for survival, makes for a population bottleneck. The more of this worldly fact that I realize and see, the more determined I am to be prepared. Prepared for what? Prepared for the results of a population bottleneck ‘event’ (leading to either extinction or recovery).
Historically, human population bottleneck events have resulted from natural occurring disastrous events, such as an ice age. Incredibly, ‘only’ 70,000 years ago, the Toba catastrophe (SuperVolcano SuperEruption) is believed to have reduced the world’s human population to just 10,000 people, and only 1,000 breeding pairs. Think about that for a minute… we almost went extinct as a result of the subsequent 6 – 10 year volcanic winter.
Although natural disastrous events such as a SuperVolcano eruption, an ice age, major pandemic, large asteroid strike, or a solar super flare could still wipe out much of the world’s population, technological developments since the industrial revolution have enabled a massive increase in human survivability over time. Never before in history has the human species had it so easy.
During my previous career I traveled a-lot, which opened my eyes to the sheer magnitude of the systemic dependencies that a majority of the human race relies upon today. I did spend most of my time working in major population centers where these dependencies are often hiding in plain site – but these places are, after all, where most of us humans live (and curiously, most near the coast). Over the years as I would fly a-lot, I would look down and see the urban sprawl as it grew. I always found it very interesting to sit at a window seat, even though I was a seasoned traveler. It was always remarkable to me to look out at the lights below during the evening or at night, seeing the flickering ribbons of light along the systemic routes of dependency while realizing the food, distribution, transportation, utilities and energy it took to keep it all going, and us ‘living’.
We as humans take it all for granted… because it has always worked. There have been glitches, yes, but most people have not experienced anything major. And therefore do not even consider the possibility. As world population continues to grow (too easily), the demands themselves upon ‘the system’ to maintain the growth curve, increase steadily, requiring ever more efficiencies and quantities to sustain the consumption of so many living people.
If these resources, efficiencies, and quantities do not keep up, something will ‘give’, or break. A major recent problem with our current system of growth has been the financial system which has become extremely fragile, extended, leveraged, and weakened to the point of near failure. If this breaks, the other systems (gathering resources, increasing efficiencies and quantities) will also suffer and fail to a degree. This then will result in human depopulation to an extent, depending on the severity of systemic collapse.
The fact that most humans alive today have little ability to take care of themselves, leads me to believe that should our current system suffer a major collapse, that we will suffer a major human die-off. It is a frightening thought, but one that is not too far fetched in my opinion.
Realizing that we are apparently in a population bottleneck, is a major reason why I continue to do things that will help me to be better prepared. My thinking is that it WILL happen, hopefully not in my lifetime, but I’m planning as though it will.
Appreciate topics of survival, emergency preparedness – or planning for disaster?
Read our current articles on Modern Survival Blog
twitter: MSurvivalBlog
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A financial catastrophe is waiting in the wings. All countries are guilty of kicking the can down the road hoping that the world debt probelm will just go away.
Hand in hand with the financial crisis is the price of oil and what pays for it.
Collapsed financial systems will ensure those without their own energy supplies will go without. No energy will equal a large die off.
During WWII the Germans ceased to be a fighting force when their artificial oil factories were destroyed.
First off, great website with valuable information. We would appreciate any advice from anyone on this website. My wife and I decided a couple of years ago to begin preparations and we are extremely glad that we did. We currently live in a suburb of a major city in the southern US and we are witnessing an increasing number of incidents of civil unrest, flash mobs, etc. After a two year search, we finally found and bought a tract of land for our retreat. We have saved enough money for our cabin and hope to start building in the next few weeks. Our retreat land has a large year round creek and is in a rural area about 2 1/2 hours from our home. Our like minded family members bought the tract of land that borders our property so we have a nice start to forming our group. Both families have a good working knowledge of firearms and we have both accumulated approximately 3000 rounds of ammo per weapon. We have adopted the Redundancy Philosophy and both families have 2 AR 15’s, Multiple 12 gauge shotguns and .22 LR rifles, as well as two each of Semi-Auto Pistols in 9mm, .40 S&W, .45 ACP and .38/.357 Revolvers. My wife has become very proficient with the .22 LR Rifles and loves our Smith & Wesson M&P 15-22’s. My wife and I have food storage for at least 6 months and are currently focused on saving for a Rainwater Retention System once we build our cabin. Our partner family is starting their food storage system. The border area separating our two tracts is a natural area to build a dam to create a two/three acre pond that we hope to stock with catfish. Neither of us have gold or silver reserves and realize that we need to begin thinking about accumulating some. However, we both have accumulated fishing supplies and plenty of lighting products ( candles, kerosene lamps, solar lanterns etc)and hygiene products. Next on our list, after a rainwater retention system, is a limited solar power system. After that we are open to advice from you experts. My wife and I and our partner family both have two college aged boys (one of them is taking night classes to get his EMT/Paramedic license) so in a SHTF situation, my 50 year old back has some help. Thanks in advance for your help and God Bless America!
@R.L., It certainly looks to me like you don’t need much help! You seem to have your goals and ambitions in a place where you are accomplishing them. I can only say this which comes to mind immediately, and that is how everyone is different with their own plans, risk awareness vs. reward, their locations and circumstances, their finances, their possessions, their knowledge, their skills, etc., so… preparedness really comes down to what YOU feel is necessary for YOU. By simply remaining interested, browsing related websites for ideas, reading books, and keeping an open logical mind to worldly happenings, is simple advice to remain active and moving forward with survival preparedness actions. There is no single ‘playbook’ that tells all. Advice will be never ending, if you look for it. The secret is adapting all of that (information) to your own life, the way that you want it, and TAKING ACTION (which it looks like you are doing). Thanks for reading the blog, and hope to be of help with further ideas as we travel down the road of time.
Ken, I appreciate it.
It was easy to begin with the guns and ammo because as most preppers realize, that is the fun stuff. Buying the retreat land was painful because of the money but we decided to sacrifice putting money into retirement funds and felt that saving for land and shelter was a better investment. I know that we are unprepared when it comes to things like fuel storage and the daily chores to cut and store firewood, raise livestock and general maintenance & repairs of things that in the past I either threw away and replaced or paid someone to fix for me. We have done a little research and feel that rabbits and goats will be the best livestock for us. We have no experience with cattle and the relative low cost for rabbits makes that viable.
One VERY VERY important issue that we have is that a family member is a type 1 Diabetic and we all realize that long term insulin cold storage is going to be a major concern. I was thinking a solar panel and marine battery backup charging system for a small refrigerator is the way to go but if anyone has looked into this PLEASE reply and let us know your ideas.
Thanks again.
@R.L., Your land investment “can’t go wrong”. Even if nothing happens (societal collapse), then your investment is a very good tangible asset into the future. Regarding the need to maintain cold storage for insulin, I would recommend what you have already described… a solar powered battery backup electrical system that supplies sufficient energy to keep a small refrigerator running. I’ve done it myself, but a slightly larger scale. An example system would be a good idea for an article…
Here’s the other thing though… IF things get real bad, then where will you get the insulin when it runs out? I know that is secondary to the immediate concern, but unfortunately a reality. Point being, maybe identify several sources of pharmaceutical businesses near and around your general location near your new property.
RL… this suggestion may help & may not? I have a domestic gas/electric refrigerator from an older RV that I use in case of power failures. The pilot light keeps it cold and a tank of fuel will last forever. Doesn’t hold a lot , but important items.
We’ve been waiting for this much heralded crash for a while now.
Problem is (and I know it’s a bit perverse) it’s taking too long acoming.
Yes I know you’ll all say that’s rubbish but consider the amount of damage this slow “death” is causing.
All the worlds economies are grinding to a halt, governments are becoming more draconian and passing ever more oppressive laws in what seems like preparation for what exactly?
I’m thinking that they are all using this as an excuse to subjugate their populations even more just in case they wake up to what is really happening.
Letting this slow decline carry on and you’ll not be able to use anything other than harsh language when your country is taken over.
After all travel has been covered by EO’s, housing, and communication.
I just wonder when him up top will take the weapons.
Exactly Paul. History has proven, people don’t stand up until they are starving.
Agreed, sir, with the idea that its taking too long, as ghoulish as that sounds. My concern is the environmental damage that will ensue as the last resources are ripped from the ground. In ’emergency’ conditions, I expect the usual ecological safeguards to be disregarded, leaving large additions to the pollution horrors we have already spread around the planet. I have this recurring vision of the fun any survivors will have as they dig up a promising-looking dump site and find what was buried there in addition to the useful objects…
I won’t even explore the hazards posed by defunct nuclear power stations that were left to meltdown in the panic…nuclear fires take a long time to burn out.
We are working to survive with an eye to the future, as are most preppers, but that future will contain dangers far beyond those posed by the ‘gibsmedats’,the gangs, diseases, fallout, weather, famine, and general horror going on. We are leaving a poisoned world behind as our society changes, and that terrifies me. What on earth are we going to tell our children?
let us not ignore the “mine shaft gap” (just thinking about mount weather, & etc, a bit tongue in cheek) still, peter sellers does a good job.
I believe when the crash comes for whatever reason, there will be a major purging of the gene pool. For too long we have had it too easy and those that would never have survived in a world before the 20th century have survived and become a burden on the producers because of socialist/communist legislation which rewards sloth and penalizes production. When the purge comes society will restructure back to a more capitalistic constitutional republic because the producers will survive and the parasites will perish.
I guess the two things I fear the most are: 1. economic collapse followed by the inevitable civil unrest. and 2. the resurgence of diseases that are now drug-resistant due to our past 70 year history of using antibiotics.
Preparation for #1 is why most people on this site relocate to be further away from the “Shaggy Hoardes” and stock up on guns & ammo, canned food and gold bars. (as a side note, look at what is currently happening in Syria)
Preparation for #2 may be more difficult in that most drugs, including antibiotics, have a limited shelf life. General rules indicate that the bigger the molecule, the shorter the storage life. Most drugs have to be stored within relatively narrow temperature parameters as well. Stories out of Greece following the downfall of their economic system indicate the first thing to run out of were Pharmaceuticals.
Within the Con US we enjoy the relative safety of food and drug purity thanks in large part to the folks at the food and drug administration. This does not come cheap. In third world countries, the availability of high quality medications is not possible. Many people die in the bush without much fanfare or newspaper articles. Even within the US many people who live on the streets die from especially virulent strains of microbes that are not cured by the latest generation of vancomycin or fourth-generation of penacillin.
I hope we do not have societal breakdown because many of the medicines that people on this site take are manufactured by genetic engineering these days including Insulin (list to include Humalog, Glargine, Lantus, Asparte, NPH) But, I see a future where there will be a higher rates of morbidity and mortality (sickness and death) by infections that are not treated in a timely fashion.
I guess I wonder whether this current world order will go out with a bang or a whimper.