A slippery slope – the collapse – and then lockdown. Consider this sequence while contemplating the big picture of societal collapse into SHTF, and how you would recognize it and prepare for it…
Slippery Slope
This begins with creeping normalcy and shifting baseline. Like the proverbial frog that won’t jump out of the pan as it is being slowly boiled, so too are many people unable to see and react to significant change that occurs gradually.
The problem is – a relatively small set of ‘first steps’ may lead to a chain reaction of related events culminating in some significant effect (SHTF), much like an object given a small push over the edge of a slope sliding all the way to the bottom.
Collapse
The slippery slope effect could lead to an avalanche of boulders as the entire wall-face collapses to a pile of rubble. The collapse occurs suddenly.
Societies along with their life support systems suffer abrupt failures after a long term ‘slippery slope’ decline of it’s culture, it’s civil institutions and/or other major characteristics of it’s society.
Factors that may combine and contribute to collapse are economic, social and cultural, overpopulation, resource depletion, or major natural or man-made disaster including war or invasion.
During collapse, and for a time, power actually becomes decentralized and people tend to be more self-regimented and have many more personal freedoms with a slackening of social rules, although what’s left of society as a whole is suffering chaos. Geographically speaking, communities become more isolated.
Lock Down
Lockdown – a state of containment or a restriction of progression to prevent people or information from escaping. It is ordered by someone in command and implemented by force.
It is martial law or takeover imposed on an unstable population. It accompanies curfews, the suspension of civil law, and civil rights.
This final stage can be the most dangerous in that it will encompass a time of either total compliance or civil war, or a mixture of both.
Preparing for and surviving SHTF involves many varying methods, choices, and behavior. It may benefit you to consider each of these three stages and form a plan how to prepare and survive through each of them.
Really serious SHTF situations will probably happen suddenly and progress from bad to worse quickly. But most disasters man made or natural tend to either give some warning or offer a brief “golden hour” to do something to mitigate the negative effects. The trick is to recognize that you are in a SHTF situation early on and take some actions that will help you survive. Be aware so that you won’t be the last to know when disaster strikes. Have a plan A, B, C & D. Have plans for most likely scenarios. Practice/test your plans. Think through some of the worst case scenarios, what are your options? How does any of this impact your plans? If necessary modify your plan. A plan without any actions/practice and necessary equipment/supplies/stuff is wishful thinking and not a plan. Make a game of it; have a no electricity day or no water from the tap day. Decide to make bread from your stored wheat and cook it in a dutch oven over charcoal on your back patio (I’ve done this). Put on your bug out clothes and boots, grab your bug out pack and go for a walk/hike for 4-8 hours. Try getting… Read more »
Just wondering: Is there an historical precedent for SHTF? Has the SHTF before or will it be a completely new phenomena?
Historical? Sure. SHTF has many forms – most familiar is the fall of the Roman Empire. There was lots of local bad stuff but the farther disconnected you are from the central point/power, the longer it took to make things turn bad. Suburbs of Rome fell in days, the farthest reaches, months even years. Think of London during the Blitz – bombs landing everywhere, people sent their children to the country where they were less likely to be harmed, destruction and death were familiar. During the Siege of Leningrad, St. Petersburg, they had it worse. They were surrounded by the Germans for nearly 3 years. Little to no food in or out. Stories of cannibalism aren’t hard to find (do a little searching.) (From untrustable, but common, source, Wikipedia) – “Civilians in the city suffered from extreme starvation, especially in the winter of 1941–1942. For example, from November 1941 to February 1942 the only food available to the citizen was 125 grams of bread, of which 50–60% consisted of sawdust and other inedible admixtures, and distributed through ration cards. For about two weeks at the beginning of January 1942, even this food was available only for workers and military personnel.… Read more »
Thanks to you too!
You and GWTW both highlight the difference between SHTF and TEOTWAWKI. I prepare for what has actually happened before, mostly earthquake in my area, sometimes considering the idea of nuclear attack, or EMP, or zombie apocalypse makes my head spin.
I have to laugh about people eating from dumpsters two days after hurricane Sandy. This was known to be a regional disaster. One could walk clear of the stricken area in 24-48 hours, and it was business as usual.
Maybe they knew if they left looters would do even more damage and insurance policies often have “Abandoned Property” clauses?
A little harsh to laugh at other folks troubles from the warm safety of your computer keyboard.
It’s an expression. It’s happened several times in several different places around the world. Basically all hell breaks loose. See civil wars, ww1, ww2, Iraq happening now with the savages formerly known as ISIS. Etc….etc….
For a lot of people it happened in 1929 and lasted until after WW II. WW II was SHTF for a lot of people who fought the Germans and the Japanese and it was a disaster for people in Europe, Russia, the Phillipines and various South Pacific islands. It began for Jews in Europe in November 1938. Lenin killed 8 million Ukrainians in 1932 by taking their crops and forcing them to stay and starve. In fact I worked with a Ukrainian immigrant in 1980 whose story was significant for preppers. His grandfather didn’t trust Russia and Lenin. They had a small land holding smaller then a couple of acres that they grew crops on to sell and to feed themselves. They would normally put their root crops in a root cellar outside the home and some grain and other produce in the house’s basement. Because of the military activity and recent bad events in other Russian territories he was afraid the army would take the families food. He dug pits deep in the forest and buried Beets and other root crops. It was his grandparents and two uncles and his mother living in the home. When the soldiers came… Read more »
Thanks.
Sometimes its tempting to think about things that ‘never-happened-but-what-if’
A little reminder about historical bad times (which many/most have never seen) puts a preparedness mindset in perspective.
I had a neighbor that walked across Europe evading the Germans. She was just 16, and went from farm to farm, asking for any food and sometimes was allowed to sleep in their barn, rarely in the house. Try getting some kid to do that today.
PapaJ, “try getting some kid to do that today”…. it is a different world today, from then, even from forty yrs ago. and it is not all a choice of parents decisions. and not all a choice of the youth. we are vastly regulated by “agencies”. I suppose they are motivated by good intentions, but then again, I am not always so sure about that. many agencies were established to help the truly abused/indigent, but to my mind they seem to have a powerful big trouble differentiating between those who truly need “their” help, and those who are “soft” targets. I keep hearing reports that many agency workers (child welfare, etc), get bonuses for many different types of activities (apprehensions/adoptions/ etc). No idea if this can be proven, but… If parents today were “reported” to these agencies for “making” or “allowing” their kids / teens to develop the skills and knowledge necessary for survival as for example discussed by Papa J, someone would “report” them to the “agencies”..ya da ya da ya da. It is my thought, that youth today are not challenged enough, in basic living skills, physical skills, survival in emergencies. I think this results in youth who… Read more »
Here is a couple of recent examples of what I was trying to explain. Neither of these kids was stupid, or incompetent. Both parents knew where their kids were/kids knew where parent was/each knew how to reach the other. To my mind, both situations were reasonable. However, in each case, overwhelming overreach by agencies has resulted in stupidity. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. – A Florida woman who let her 7-year-old son walk alone to a park has been charged with felony child neglect. The Rutherford Institute, a Virginia-based civil liberties group, received calls about the Florida incident from some who see it as an overreach by law enforcement. The group reached out to Gainey, who is now being represented by the organization’s attorneys. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx S.C. mom’s arrest over daughter alone in park sparks debate Mother charged with a felony after her mother, Debra Harrell, left her alone to play at a nearby park while she worked at McDonald’s She spent 17 days in jail, temporarily lost custody of her girl, thought she lost her job, and still faces 10 years in prison if convicted of felony child neglect. Her child is not the only one at that park without… Read more »
Back in WWII the army in the Phillipines had their version of bugging out that being going to Battan and waiting for the “Aid” to arrive from the US. They did not really recognize the folly of bugging out. Much of the food supply was not where it could be used. It had to be trucked to Battan but there were no trucks, no gasoline. and no time to do it. They were not really prepared at Battan where it counted. They did not have the mind set for SHTF even in the opening phases of WWII. They thought as civilians. 10,000 cases of canned goods owned by Japanese companies were available but the legal dept would not allow that so the food was left for the Japanese. Thousands of tons of rice was available but the law did not allow transport of rice from one province to another so the rice was left to the advancing Japanese. Our forces on Battan suffered from food shortages from the start because of poor planning and the wrong mind set in our military leadership. When SHTF comes laws leave if you are to survive that has to to be crystal clear. having… Read more »
Nobody mentioned the Great Depression. While it wasn’t the worst thing that had ever happened in history, it was definitely a major hardship that was faced right here in the US. And I wonder, if it happened today, with the majority of the population not even knowing how to bake a loaf of bread, among the many, many other skills that the average person possessed back in the day. Heck, if all cell phones stopped working tomorrow, just think what a disaster most people would consider that simple event. How lost would people be? Literally, without their smartphone giving them directions, how many people don’t own a map, or would know how to read one. I would like Ken to post a list of skills that people knew back in the day, that the majority of the population don’t possess today. This might help preppers in an area they didn’t think of.
In regard to the Lock Down stage, that may come in an alternate form. If the old government ceases to exist altogether after the Collapse stage there will be, as stated, isolated communities. Initially in a state of anarchy, the seeds of law and order will begin to take root again regardless of the non-existence of the former government. Humans just don’t live without order as it is not in our nature. In most cases this is good, however, not always. A simple example of bad order being a local gang of thugs taking control of an area and forcing the inhabitants to live by their not so beneficial rules. There will be numerous small groups looking to establish order as they see fit and many of those groups will have competing interests. As one group conquers and assimilates another group, and other groups merge together out of necessity, we can imagine there will be some significant conflict. The emergence of the modern European nations from the remains of the fractured Roman Empire are an example of this. After that collapse, there were literally hundreds, if not thousands, of tiny little independent territories left to fend for themselves all across… Read more »