What About a One in Thirty Chance of Dying? Would you be concerned? Or would you simply take the risk and say to yourself, hopefully I won’t be the one…?
Hypothetical: You’re boarding a plane. You get to your seat and settle in. Everyone else is now buckled in. The flight attendant comes on the intercom and says,
“Attention ladies and gentlemen. We are obligated to advise you that there is a 1 in 30 chance that this jet is going to crash and everyone on board will die today. If any of you would like to get off, please do so now. Thank you.”
Would you get off that flight?
You bet your arss that I would…
A one in thirty chance is just a bit more than 3%. A one in fifty chance is 2%.
That’s the present kill rate of covid-19 coronavirus from numbers which are suspected to be artificially low (for a number of reasons). But 2%, maybe 3% are the official approximation of the numbers right now. Let’s go with that.
Perspective on the numbers here in the USA
I’m trying to put some perspective on the covid-19 coronavirus numbers. Especially since so many are still fluffing it as hardly any different than “the flu” (0.1% death rate).
The present estimations are that a large percentage of the planet will eventually get covid-19 coronavirus. Lets put that into context, just for here in the United States of America with current official death rate estimates.
If half the population gets this virus, and if the death rate is 3%, we’re looking at approximately 5 million dead.
If half the population gets it, and if the death rate is 2%, there will be approximately 3 million dead.
If only one-third of the population in the US gets this coronavirus, and if the death rate is 3%, we’re looking at about 3 million dead.
If only one-third of the population gets it, and the death rate is 2%, about 2 million people will die.
And that’s if you trust today’s official numbers.
And these numbers presume that the extremely sick (about 20% of those who get it) get a hospital bed and are treated. We don’t have even a small fraction of emergency beds for these kinds of numbers. So, will the death rate be higher as a result? Logically, yes.
We are just in the beginning phase here in the United States of this infection.
It cannot be stopped. It’s here. It has been for awhile (asymptomatic period / no test kits until just recently – still not enough). It’s going to run it’s course. It does not discriminate. It does not care if you are a democrat or republican.
Will the US eventually take drastic actions like they did in China by quarantining entire cities with 10’s of millions of people? Keeping them in their homes? Shutting down all businesses? Travel? How’s that going to go? Anything to be concerned about with that? Nah… that’ll never happen… it’ll never get that bad here. We’re special.
Go ahead. Call me doom and gloom.
It’s nothing more than the flu that kills several 10’s of thousands each year. Millions? Nah, Ken, you’re a kook for looking at the numbers. Here in ‘merica, those things don’t happen to us. We’re special…
Sorry to those who may be getting annoyed that I’m posting too much on this topic. This morning I did pacify some of you with a “silver lining” ;)
But for the time being, I feel compelled to keep my foot on the pedal in this direction – though I’ll try and break it up a little with some intermittent fluff.
It is shaping up to potentially be the biggest preparedness (or lack thereof) event of our lifetime. Hey, I hope I’m wrong. But hope doesn’t get you anywhere.
Rather, we need to think sensibly, logically, comb the data. Be vigilant. All while understanding (or searching for) the reasoning behind entities who don’t want us to know the complete truth. We are not sheeple. Don’t be lulled to sleep…