Could Ebola Eradicate Half The Population Within A Year?

ebola-doubling-every-3-weeks

Could the deadly Ebola virus rage into a worldwide pandemic which eradicates half of all human life with a year? The headline reads extremely dramatic and sensational, I know…

Based on recent statements that the number of Ebola cases has been doubling about every three weeks, a simple math exercise reveals the following:


 
First, I will say that the following simple mathematical exercise of Ebola transmission is (hopefully) unlikely (to be this extreme) given that the current “reproduction number” (1.5 – 2) is based on that from the stricken African countries, and would hopefully lessen somewhat from quarantine and advanced medical efforts taken in developed countries.

(The reproduction number estimates how many people, on average, will catch the virus from each person stricken with Ebola)

Having said that though, it is also believed that for every known reported case of Ebola (in Africa) there may be 6 or more going unreported (raising the reproduction number).

Here’s the thing folks – Tom Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control just said “The speed at which things are moving on the ground, it’s hard for people to get their minds around. People don’t understand the concept of exponential growth,”

 
So my ordinary math exercise illustrates exponential growth in the context of three weeks:

We start with the current approximated number of Ebola cases (10,000) and we will simply double the number of Ebola cases every three weeks and see where we end up…

Ebola Week 0 (10,000)
Ebola Week 3 (20,000)
Ebola Week 6 (40,000)
Ebola Week 9 (80,000)
Ebola Week 12 (160,000)
Ebola Week 15 (320,000)
Ebola Week 18 (640,000)
Ebola Week 21 (1,280,000)
Ebola Week 24 (2,560,000)
Ebola Week 27 (5,120,000)
Ebola Week 30 (10,240,000)
Ebola Week 33 (20,480,000)
Ebola Week 36 (40,960,000)
Ebola Week 39 (81,920,000)
Ebola Week 42 (163,840,000)
Ebola Week 45 (527,680,000)
Ebola Week 48 (655,360,000)
Ebola Week 51 (1,310,720,000)
Ebola Week 54 (2,621,440,000)
Ebola Week 57 (5,242,880,000)
Ebola Week 61 (The entire planet)

 
From the example above, given the mortality of Ebola somewhere between 50% and 80%, in a little over a year this illustrates eradication of half or more the population.

Again, this only goes to illustrate a ‘perfect storm’ based on a doubling every three weeks. In reality, I would highly presume that this would not be the case over time – however who’s to say that developed countries will be able to successfully control this? (Our normalcy bias and expectations that we are all-powerful beings – may be flawed) And who’s to say that this Ebola doesn’t mutate further – increasing it’s transferability? (There’s something very different about this Ebola)

Exponential growth nearly always catches everyone off-guard. It always appears to start slow. The problem is that an exponential curve will always suddenly and dramatically begin to arc steeply up – catching most by surprise. It’s a very powerful thing.

It wouldn’t hurt you to be a little (or a-lot) prepared for this. The thing is – the $hit will hit the fan way way before the numbers of cases gets completely out of control. Our just-in-time manufacturing and delivery systems will completely collapse when a tipping point of panic is reached within the population. It could happen very much sooner than you might think.

My suggestion: Start quietly topping off your preps.

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64 Comments

  1. The runaway exponential growth is more of a problem for undeveloped & under-developed countries without a strong healthcare infrastructure.

    1. Healthcare workers are among the first casualties. After enough losses many won’t show up fearing contagion. Who is going to manufacture the Level 4 suits, medications, who is going to deliver existing stocks, etc., etc.

  2. As an RN with several years of ER experience I will say that our country, while years ahead of many technologically, Does NOT have a “Strong healthcare infrastructure”. ER’s and Hospitals are mostly filled to capacity, and beyond, on any given day. Very few have the containment facilities (level 4 type) to deal with Ebola. One hospital I worked at served a Metro area of around 160,000 and had two reverse isolation beds (TWO),Not level 4 beds but Isolation rooms (think tuberculosis) and the ER wait time was often over 6 hours.

    Now, Add to that a few cases of Ebola in a few cities and then the throngs of people who read about Ebola and are “sure” they have it and you will very, very quickly overwhelm any healthcare infrastructure. When that happens the panic (If it hasn’t begun already) will envelope the populace and collapse will rapidly ensue (think LA in the moments to hours after the Rodney King officers Verdict). It WILL look like that and THAT, not so much the disease itself, Is what will take the most lives.

    1. I am a Paramedic. We do not have a strong healthcare infrastructure. Quite the opposite, we have good healthcare for people who are truly sick. Having a heart attack you have a good chance of surviving, same for stroke, etc., etc. if caught in time. 90% of people who go to an ER or call an ambulance are not usually highly intelligent and many will flood the ER’s with ebola like symptoms. The healthcare system will become overwhelmed quickly, it is already busting at the seams. When this pandemic really takes hold and it is for real, I will not be going to work. I will be at home taking care of me and mine, and so will a lot of other healthcare workers, if they are smart.

      1. I hear you paramedics end up doing mostly bogus runs (can’t refuse because of the lawsuit lotto) and giving taxi rides in an expensive cab with flashing lights. I’m surprised any of you have lips at all after all the biting.

    2. USA has four level four containment units, with a total of 23 beds. You have nothing to worry about. Move along!

  3. The head of the U.S. Southern Command – the branch of the U.S. military responsible for all U.S. military activities in South America and Central America – says:

    There is no way we can keep Ebola [contained] in West Africa.

    If it breaks out [in Central America], it’s literally, ‘Katie bar the door,’ and there will be mass migration into the United States … They will run away from Ebola, or if they suspect they are infected, they will try to get to the United States for treatment.

    [I saw how easy it is for illegals to enter the United States. While visiting the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua with U.S. embassy personnel, I saw a group of men] waiting in line to pass into Nicaragua and then on their way north.

    The embassy person walked over and asked who they were and they told him they were from Liberia and they had been on the road about a week. They met up with the network in Trinidad and now they were on their way to the United States — illegally, of course.

    [The men] could have made it to New York City and still be within the incubation period for Ebola.

  4. One important thing to understand is that in the early stages a pandemic doesn’t look like a pandemic. That is exactly why you have the head of the CDC going on TV telling us to calm down and President Ebola is still playing golf and fundraising with billionaires. If It is a sure thing to see the indications and know with certainty that we were in the early days of a pandemic then all would be different. The problem is that it is in the early days that a pandemic can be turned around. You could stop mass immigration legal and illegal. You could restrict flights from infected areas. You could impliment better evaluation procedures for visitors/tourists coming here. But before it is obvious that there is a pandemic this all seems impossible and too restrictive and unnecessary, etc. Once it becomes pretty clear to everyone paying attention that something serious is happening all of those precautions are too little and too late. Our government and it’s many fiefdom/bureaucracies are not designed to be competent and effective. They are all designed to be self protecting and not to make waves. The first government official that actually calls for restricting flights and entry into this country will have committed professional suicide. So while I cannot know with any certainty that this is the big one; a real pandemic coming to this country, I do know that if it is we will fail to stop it. Also if this isn’t the big one that when the big one happens we will fail to stop that too. Our government is incompetent.

  5. Why would people understand exponential growth when they don’t understand compound interest and gladly say, “Sign me up!” for the latest CC?

    1. “Pay off all your credit cards witha home equity loan from Ditech!!!!” Statistically, about 88% of people who buy into this “strategy” run their credit cards back up quickly. Don’t worry, the coming “cyber attack” will wipe out your bank and 401(k) accounts, but thankfully none of the accounts you owe will be affected.

    2. Amazing that anyone can sell a deal where one party can change the terms at any time, for any reason, or no reason. It’s true. read one of these CC “offers”.

  6. this is some scary stuff that’s for damned sure, the cold hard fact and nature proves this every once in awhile that there are viruses out there that CAN and do KILL a lot of people, as sick as this sounds there are WAY too many people in the world, nature has a way of fixing that with stuff like this, the cold fact shit like this happens and all we can do is try to ride it out, now I had said FOR MONTHS this WOULD HAPPEN I was laughed at called paranoid and called all kinds of vile crap and it makes me sick that I was right

  7. This is assuming each infected person infects only one other person. Try 2, 3, 5 or more and see how fast this chart reaches totality. Luckily, most of these things don’t work this way.(only your credit card interest)

  8. John, at first the diease was a 2, meaning for every one carrying it, that 2 would be affected. I read now it is a 3, meaning for every 1 carrying the disease, 3 will be affected.

  9. People can carry it to every state in a matter of hours so I would say when you hear it showing up ( because they wont be able to keep it quiet ) start considering avoiding people . That’s a benefit of living in the sticks with few people JMO

  10. I myself will be going nowhere near an emergency room anytime in the near future. I don’t care if I have a broken bone, heart attack or any other ailment. Best way to get sick is to sit in an emergency waiting room for a couple of hours. I am also a couple of weeks away from losing my job which now appears to be a blessing. I can stay home and avoid EVERYONE!!!

  11. I am a retired Deputy , and work as armed security at a local hospital , my wife and my daughter work there and are both RN’s , we have talked about if this situation escalates , we have decided that if it does we will be calling in sick , as being a security officer I make rounds around the floors , I have overheard quite a few of the other employees state the same concerns , oh and even though I am not medically trained but have picked up a lot of experiences and information , I can agree that our medical system is being overloaded now , it won’t take much for it to betaken down if a pandemic hits . Be prepared and ready . Keep your powder dry .

    1. I work in the IT department for a large hospital system. I have already decided to start looking for a job outside of healthcare, preferably one where I can work from home. If that doesn’t happen, my plan B is to insist that I work from home if this Ebola spreads to my state/hospital system. We have lots of other IT/training teams that regularly visit our clinics and hospitals to support them and then they come back to our office, potentially infecting the rest of us that use the common facilities.

    2. Andy–

      Remember, RNs are “Registered”. TPTB know where to find them. Act accordingly.

  12. I work too at a hospital, we got our last shipment for now anyway of the special ebola suits,200 to be exact, had some people from the state checking the er and size of the parking lots as well as water and electric outside and our underground wastewater tank. I for one won’t be going to work when it starts to escalate, as well as many others that I’ve talked to.

  13. To be sure, the mathematics here are simply TERRIFYING, however…

    In nature there are various effects that limit the spread of any virus. Not the least of those is the “intelligence factor” . I will grant you that we are NOT seeing a LOT of that at the level of our Government officials, thus far but you and I are still able to act ‘will-fully’.

    Any virus – in situ – that is, within a host, accomplishes it’s reproduction by way of gentic transcription utilizing the entirety of all the mechanisms of the cells that it has invaded, compelling those to become little more than ‘virus factory’s’. This is exactly why many viruii cause hemorrhaging as they infect cellular matter….in doing so, some of those are natively so successful in the doing, that the cells they infect simply EXPLODE from the pressure of the contained viral mass being produced thereby, leading in cases to the bleeding that is seen, as large stretches of vascular tissue are thus destroyed.

    However, as it happens, the process of viral replication is inherently ‘sloppy’. This state of affairs IS a two-edged sword, inasmuch as this sloppy transcription acts to alter the fundamental code of the virus randomly, USUALLY resulting in a DECREASE in the effectiveness of same over time, as a pathogen. However…that is EXACTLY why a virus CAN quite suddenly ‘become’ something unexpected. In effect, this is also exactly HOW a virus successfully ‘mutates’ into something MORE lethal. An example from our past is illuminating here. In the middle ages, the “Black Plague” swept Europe as a terror. Now, PLAGUE is NOT viral…it is bacterial in nature, yet much of what I say here is generally applicable nonetheless. Plague always BEGINS as ‘Bubonic plague’ evinced by the appearance on victims of ‘Bubo’s’, black pustules centering themselves along the various lymph channels of the body, often clearly visible – most readily so – along, or near the arm-pits. Bubonic plague is serious, to be sure, but it PALES into insignificance when contrasted with what is mutates into….”Pneumonic Plague.”

    Once the bacterium has successfully traveled THROUGH a sufficient number of hosts, it spontaneously mutates into the second form, doing so in a completely unpredictable fashion. Once it has so mutated, it’s lethality goes UP by multiple orders of magnitude…in both it’s inherent effect on living mammals but most especially in it’s ability to transmit itself, one to another….for then it has become ‘airborne’, as we have all been apprised of lately.

    Part of the difficulty in addressing any viral infection is this: we KNOW LITTLE about how proteins – the basis of all life, and viruses as well – act, in interacting with each other. Some here – those who are computer- savvy – may have heard of something called, “Folding@Home” I suspect. That is the Stanford.edu project to study those interactions…which are computationally FORMIDABLE in the EXTREME. At this point we KNOW almost nothing – analytically speaking – about HOW proteins interact. We know much about OTHER things…but NONE there. Until we do, there is little Hope for finding a ‘cure’ for anysuch…even for the common cold virus. Yes, we might be able to develop a vaccine therefor, but having a vaccine is NOT a ‘cure’ per se…it is a prophylactic alone.

    Perhaps this will serve to clarify some points related thereto…

    1. On the plus side, conditions in most of Africa make 13th century Europe look like The Jetsons.

      On the minus side, it wouldn’t take much for our JIT systems to be wrecked due to panic.

      Note: In Africa, dogs are digging up poorly buried corpses and eating them, and the dogs seem to be able to carry the virus, but not get sick.

      1. If enough workers stay home from power, water, and sanitation utilities, conditions in “developed” countries regress about 2-300 years, only with greatly increased population, many of whom only know “gibs me dat”.

        1. Yes, I concur completely.

          The question is ‘HOW resilient IS our basic system/structure’. The answer to that remains to be seen. I can envisage a circumstance where health care workers refuse to attend to patients. Once that occurred, the FEAR that that the public would be endangered would set the stage for a small-scale PANIC that would thereafter escalate – via the media coverage – and which would then spread out over the country to a much larger degree.

          Question: At WHAT point does that fear begin to effect the general day-to-day operations of the JIT, as well other critical subsystems upon which we all depend.

          Answer: ??????????…No ONE KNOWS, no one has ever seen that HERE, in a developed Nation. I submit thusly, that ‘extreme vigilance’ is rapidly becoming WARRANTED as – and IF – this situation further progresses.

          At the last ‘if TERROR comes…’ then all that one can do pro-actively is to implement effective, ABSOLUTE ‘Cordon Sanitere’ on one’s own family… for months…and without EXCEPTION.

          1. Medical personnel refusing to treat patients is exactly what is about to happen in Liberia this Monday when they go on strike.

  14. Buy everything you need now. Please forget your budget, and max out your cards to get what you need…right away. Forget the vacation, the new thing you were saving for, and stop paying all your bills. Buy what you need for your family to live in utter isolation for a few months at least. If you do not own a shotgun..get one now. A Remington 870, or a Mossberg comb, .12 Gauge. Then buy #4 shot loads, a few packs of slugs, and standard bird shot. Keep you gas tank full.

    Do not worry about work. The Government shall issue orders outlawing gatherings of any sort. So, restaurants, movie theatres, clubs, amusement parks, etc., will all be closed. You will be told to stay home.

    As the hospitals stop functioning, mostly due to NO PERSONNEL in them, and the mobs grow, the infected, and suspected infected, will be taken to camps, where they will be allowed to die and have their bodies processed.

    Forget your cancer, your broken leg, your cuts, your sore tooth…no one will care.

    Stock up on your meds now…

    The panic is simply just going to happen…seemingly all at once…and you will have only a few hours at best.

    If you do not die, I guarantee you shall finally have lost all that extra weight you always wanted to shed, before it’s all over.

    1. Ummmm, maybe…maybe not,

      What should occupy most minds – here – is the notion, “How WOULD a collapse proceed?” In that sense, lets look at one small part of that; the part where you NEED ‘something’ and so must GET ‘it’.

      Initially, the most probable ‘disturbance’ one would see would be the fragmentation of the PAYMENT systems which we all depend upon; Credit Cards, Debit Cards and other ‘soft’ payment methods..ie, “non-cash”. At some point as things worsened (appreciably), merchant would likely begin experiencing ‘credit transaction failures’ where either the validation systems were overloaded and unresponsive OR the increasing scarcity of goods would serve to dis-incline them to SELL ‘goods’ at a fixed price. ONCE that begins, then it’s a ‘cash only’ proposition…but only temporarily. After that the effective ‘life of CASH’ would likely be rather short.

      Nonetheless, THAT is a critical period since almost everyone has some few things that they – yet – NEED to get?; Few of us have EVERYTHING, ‘on-hand’, NOW, Eh?

      Thereafter the ‘ball will be ROLLING’…soon, not even CASH will suffice to secure the ‘willing’ transactions with merchants that are required to finalize your ‘position’. THEN, only things like Gold and/or Silver will likely induce someone to part with something they have, something of value.

      At that stage things are near to the END, for once it comes to PM’s as being the only method to induce others to TRADE, then the clock is almost ‘ran-out’. PANIC will be operant at that stage, as will ‘murderous rage’ broadly. Having PM and transacting with those then is nearly a ‘death sentence’ should anyone come to know that openly about you; “Your MONEY or YOUR LIFE…” most likely….even your FRIENDS might so proposition you thusly. Remember, the ‘veneer’ of Civilization is very THIN Folks, you don’t ahve to strip much away till it’s the ‘JUNGLE’ all over again.

      Perhaps that sequence of events can help a bit to place it all in perspective…

      1. I can appreciate the sequence of events you described and I don’t pretend that a total collapse from the panic a severe pandemic could happen. What I don’t like seeing is chicken littles advocating that we all jump off a cliff (so to speak) and abandon our finances and lives without any solid proof the end is near! That’s not at all helpful and play into the stereotypes the media portrays preppers as fearmongers. I have witnessed people jump off that cliff and it cost them dearly. Let’s all just keep our minds in the present and look out for the future and keep doing the little things we probably all do to keep our families safe. Keep an eye on the “news” and the real news and just keep on keeping on.

        1. Once again…I concur…with the following qualifications,

          Thus, my ‘equivocal’ lead in the previous comment.

          Truly, there IS some cause for concern here, No? That said, the question is immediately begged, “WHEN are things BAD enough…to ACT.”. Naturally, that question is a wholly individual one; each must answer that for themselves, uniquely and specifically.

          In all truth, such as Mr Swayze said in the movie ‘Next of Kin’ “BAD ain’t here yet…but it’s (MAYBE be) comin'”. Again, each must decide for themselves…your point is quite valid though, for all that…In brief, that likely lies at ‘some point in the middle, between the TWO opposite positions’. Thus, ‘Best of Luck’ to all here – if and when – that decision might needs come.

          1. Absolutley agree with you…the truth lies somewhere between end of the world and the total dismissal from our government. Its hard to figure out when to cut and run but I don’t believe we are there yet. But you are right its everyones own choice when that time is and far be it from me to tell someone they are wrong. I appreciate the interesting dialogue, I have never commented on any of these sites before.

          2. Just a little background…

            I served as a Chemical, Biological, Radiological decontamination team member, a worldwide first responder, for the Intelligence community of the U.S. Government. I was a “Shelter Manager” for specific NSA & Top Secret Military installations in Japan. I was active in this field when Ebola was first discovered and Russia was working on weaponized versions of Ebola and Marburg. I was trained in all of OUR arsenal, and all of THEIRs, including a “Phase Shifting Virus” bio agent, which later became known to you as AIDS. This training was all TSCW (Top Secret Codeword) and no information was restricted.

            I left the Government and went to work for one of the largest International Conglomerates in the World, shortly after 9/11, doing simular work, along with anti-terrorist activities.

            The Government is lying to you. The News is lying to you.

            I meant what I wrote above…every word of it.

            Begin taking direct action immediately.

            I know what is about to happen, so does the WHO, and the CDC, and Obama.

            There is a natural immunity to this virus in a small percentage of the population, because some lack a particular cellular “gateway” for it to invade a their cells. These people will get over an infection, as if it were a slight two day cold. So, not all of us are automatically doomed by it. But, most of us are.

            Oh, bye the way…

            This particular virus, which is NOT Ebola Zaire, is easy to transmit, not hard.

          3. Thank you for your insight, especially given your background. I am taking this very very seriously. I do believe that we are in “manage the sheeple” mode. Their worst short term fear is panic due to our JIT systems. If people begin to panic, it’s SHTF time. I hope you are wrong. But you might be right.

          4. Let me ask you this; is this, in your eyes, a sitution that is going to send our country into an end of times type scenario or is this something that we will recover from in a few months?

            I truely appreciate your view and I know for sure we aren’t getting anywhere close to the truth I just have trouble beleiving we are at the “end” so to speak. Or maybe its that I really don’t want to believe it :-(

          5. It shall be the End Of The World, for all of us, who contract this pathogen and die from it. But, if you prevent contact with the virus, or you are natually immune, you will not die…and the World will go on. However, the World will be a different place after the fire.

            Basically, stay away from people. Stay away from Hospitals. Stay off public transportation. Do not use public restrooms. Do not touch the handrails. Wear medical gloves if you must go forth and touch what hundreds of others have already touched. When someone coughs, leave.

            The thing is..this virus may become endemic, and remain in a “steady state” for much of the World. It may become as common as Malaria, and remain viable in the natural fauna. We may be faced with outbreaks every year. Just a some in England come down with Malaria every year. Behaviors will change. Social norms will mutate. Those with a natural immunity will propagate their traits. People will sit and watch Football games on the TV….as the players run about in an empty stadium.

            There will be fashionable hazmat suits, and clever new designs. Your car will have a built in decontamination system for its passenger area. (Imagine tiny fixtures of blueish light emminating from inside you car, while it is in the parking lot. Much like the sterilization lights used in the back rooms of a typical restaurant.)

            There shall be a whole new world for the smart business person to capitalize on.

            The worst case scenario is that this outbreak is a planned event. In which case, all bets are off.

            Just get your food now…and try to live through it. Get some good books..and lots of them.

  15. Our “tolerant, caring” government will allow most of us to “wither on the vine”, and kill off each other.

  16. Good comments so far. The only thing I have to add is that after several weeks of incubating the virus, with little social distancing, and then when the infections appear, then many have already spread the contagion. So it’s true you can see exponential growth from that sloppiness.

    Few realize that this Ebola strain, since it’s less fatal initially, results in a worse rate of infection because people can seem fine or mildly infected…then keel over as their multiple systems are compromised.

    However, at a certain point, fear kicks in. Certain people are more alert and are going to do social distancing, and hence won’t be milling around in stores where people are infected and passing along the contagion.

    Many Americans are retired and chronically unemployed or underemployed, and hence their rate of infection will be less too…as long as they stay home.

    Some folks in critical infrastructure roles may be sequestered at their places of employment. That’s part of the contingency plans for maintaining that infrastructure, and hence some of them will have less than normal contact with the outside world.

    So initially and for weeks of the contagion, then you see that multiplication of the contagion, but then all of the above kick in, and since there is less direct and indirect contact, then less opportunities for infections.

    Unless….it goes airbourne and there are fomites being carried around in colder climates. When it’s cold and the humidity is largely absent, then the nasal passages are more easily penetrated due to that dryness and cracking of the layers of the skin and depositing of the virons on those mucous membranes.

    Then those who have been very cautious about social distancing might think they’re safe since they haven’t gotten sick….yet. They might get low on supplies. They might have not adequately planned or a change in their supplies due to other mitigating factors might lead to going for those supplies.

    And there’s always the problem of getting clean drinking water, and especially in Winter, as there might be ice or snow conditions to deal with too.

    An important aspect to look up from the Great Pandemic Influenza is that it happened in three waves…not one. During that time, you might not get infected until successive waves, or one area might be hard hit, but not another region, although concentrated areas like military personnel, penitentiaries, or colleges might be particularly hard hit.

    Many of these factors could result in making Ken’s theory highly accurate, but in history, typically the worst doesn’t happen. Even when horrific like the Black Death or the Great Influenza Pandemic, then we luck out, or in my opinion, God performs a miracle.

  17. Another case and this was a care giver that they admit was wearing all the precatutions . But the officals have absolute faith in their precatutions , although they’re not the ones caring for the sick . That rotten smell is coming from the wood pile

  18. As a wild card to throw in the mix, what about the existence of numerous “Typhoid Mary” going about their daily business not knowing they are even infected and may never know.

  19. Gee… A nurse, in all her protective gear has contracted this virus. Probably by just touching a single unprotected fingertip to the outside of a glove, when taking it off.

    Gosh… I wonder about all the other persons, who came in direct, and prolonged, contact with the Texas Liberian’s person and fluids, are doing? Hmmmm…

    Secrecy is now at play. It’s all about managing you now.

    1. In the AP story, it says, “Dr. Tom Frieden, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the health care worker’s Ebola diagnosis shows there was a clear breach of safety protocol.”

      So, because this worker has Ebola, there must have been a breach of safety protocol? There’s no chance that Ebola can spread in other ways, even though the protocol was followed precisely? It’s obviously the health care worker’s fault, then, that he/she has Ebola. What a slap in the face to this person who risked his/her life, as well as those of friends and family, to care for this man.

      1. Wendy, I thought same as you. Blame it on the victim. Especially if they die.

        on the announcement with Judge Clay et al, I thought he/ they looked SEVERELY nervous, and so did the news commentators.

        1. I saw the 7:30 am spec report on CBS 11 this morning, and Clay Jenkins looked TERRIFIED.. He also went into the Liberian’s Apt, (BEFORE it was sanitized) to show everybody that there was nothing to fear… Hope that pans out well for him. The “Clinical” guy… (Name and title fails me), seemed to answer MORE questions with hesitation, like he hadn’t been briefed, and wasn’t sure if he was giving out too much information. The kicker for me was when this guy couldn’t get away from the podium, due to reporters asking question after question… The “Handler” tried twice to get him off stage, and finally with his back to the camera whispered, “Walk away”, and the guy did..
          I went today and stocked up on everything shelf-stable that I could think of…. God be with us.

      2. Technically every single treatment of an Ebola patient outside of a Biosafety Level 4 containment area is a violation of protocol by definition, right? Those Tyvek suits, those respirators, those gloves…everything is a violation of protocol.

        How could we ever expect a regular medical center with limited isolation rooms and inadequate equipment, training, and experts on infection control and other personnel to handle Ebola patients?

        We’ve already seen nurses unions in Spain be outright livid about the sloppy situation there. We’ve already had nurses unions go on record that the medical centers are not prepared for Ebola. Why would any medical professional ignored basic medicine and then think they could treat Ebola safely?

        They can’t unless they greet each patient is separated in emergency rooms and they greet each patient fully gowned up because guess what? Ebola patients don’t have a siren and a flashing red light stating they are infected. Which means lots and lots of people could be exposed to virons from it before anyone thinks to isolate the patient and protect themselves with special equipment. Even then the whole point is it isn’t EFFECTIVE for Ebola. It’s like you making do with first aid at home to treat an infection and not having the equipment to clean the wound site, protect yourself, administer tests to the patient, and then administer the appropriate medicines.

        There are only a handful of beds in America in very limited places that can handle BSL-4 patients. Heck it was 48 hours before the ambulance that brought Patient Zero in was CLEANED. How many patients and personnel were exposed to it during that 48 hours?

    2. right..secrecy is at play

      and HOW are those folks who were in apartment with Duncan doing?

      are they really in a comfy home somewhere? or
      are they in some isolated facility somewhere/dying?
      has anyone seen any pictures of them in the comfy home?

      1. I’ve wondered about them, too. Surely at least one of them is sick. Last I heard, they were moved to a private residence, and the journalists have been unable to find them. The government/CDC/TPTB may be able to keep what is happening to them under wraps, but it can’t keep other cases (like this health care worker’s case) hidden.

      2. Something to ponder here… A Woman posted in a comment section somewhere a really intelligent thought.

        This guy came from Liberia, to marry his Fiance. When you are going to marry someone, and haven’t seen them for a bit, you greet with a kiss, and most likely have “Adult Relations” soon after reuniting…. I’m thinking she’s infected. If not, she knew he was coming here, and had the virus. One scenario is possible death, the other is aiding and abetting. I would hate to be her.

    3. Yes this is what is very suspicious and the most worrisome,in years past with h1n1,bird and swine flu,the news media and gov was all about telling us all how bad it was and how much worse it was still going to get,and it was nothing but hype and big $$$ pushing the latest vaccine, and in reality, more people died slipping on soap in the tub than any of those killers…but now they are all saying how this is not that big of a deal and very hard to get and with our awesome health care here it can’t happen…

      All this soothing reassurance should have warning bells going off in your ears and you should be ready to isolate within the next couple weeks.

  20. The virus involved in the current outbreak is a “Level 4 Biological Agent.” This is what you need to handle it, if you are going to work with it. Think “Blood Samples” etc…

    Biosafety level 4

    This is the level required for work with dangerous and exotic agents that pose a high individual risk of aerosol-transmitted laboratory infections, agents which cause severe to fatal disease in humans for which vaccines or other treatments are not available, such as the Marburg virus, and the Ebola virus.

    When dealing with biological hazards at this level the use of a POSITIVE PRESSURE PERSONNEL SUIT, with a SEGREGATED air supply is MANDATORY. The entrance and exit of a level four biolab will contain multiple showers, a vacuum room, an ultraviolet light room, and other safety precautions designed to destroy all traces of the biohazard. Multiple airlocks are employed and are electronically secured to prevent both doors from opening at the same time. All air and water service going to and coming from a biosafety level 4 (or P4) lab will undergo similar decontamination procedures to eliminate the possibility of an accidental release.

    The Medical staff MUST have specific, and thorough, training in handling extremely hazardous infectious agents and they understand the primary and secondary containment functions of the standard, and special practices, the containment equipment, and the laboratory design characteristics. They are supervised by QUALIFIED scientists who are trained and experienced in working with these agents. Access to the laboratory is strictly controlled by the laboratory director.

    The facility is either in a separate building or in a controlled area within a building, which is completely isolated from all other areas of the building. A specific facility operations manual is prepared or adopted. Building protocols for preventing contamination often use negatively pressurized facilities, which, even if compromised, would severely inhibit an outbreak of aerosol pathogens.

    Within work areas of the facility, all activities are confined to Class III biological safety cabinets, or Class II biological safety cabinets used with one-piece positive pressure personnel suits ventilated by a life support system.

    People will be forced to handle this virus without the required bio-safetly level protections for it. These people are getting the virus and dying from it. This virus will eliminate medical personnel responding to it, because of their constant exposure to the virus, and all of its mutations, by a diverse body of multiple infected patients. How many times will they decontaminate and change their protective suits? If they treat an infected patient, then move on to another patient without decon, they will, themselves, infect other patients. Does the patient actually have the virus, or is the patient just sick from the flu? Treatment begins before medical personnel know the nature of the patient’s illness. Let your mind consider the ramifications….

    If a medical staffer is constantly decontaminating and changing protective suits, they are constantly being exposed to contamination each time they do. If everyone coming to the hospital with flu symptoms must be treated as a possible Ebola infection, how with this go? Think of the Emergency Room’s seating, magazines, coffee machine, bathroom…etc. Think of the taxi, or bus, the infected person took to get to the Emergency Room…

    You have NO idea of how bad this is going to get.

    Act now.

  21. We’re pretending that Ebola is just another virus that can be handled with personal protective equipment. We’re pretending that it’s not one of the most deadly viruses and must be handled in a very expensive Biosafety Level 4 environment.

    We’re pretending that shutting down airports is nonsensical when it’s the standard practice for contagion.

    Just keep pretending and see where that gets you.

    What happened to common sense?

    Should we run amok and afraid like chickens with their head cut off and just keel over and die? Nope. Being afraid is not a practical and logical way of thinking, is it?

    But a good healthy fear of what might happen can inspire us to be cautious, take precautions, and plan. There is nothing wrong with a little fear. In fact, a little fear shows that you’re not ignorant of the facts, but aware of what might happen, and then with pragmatism you take necessary steps to ensure the safety of your family.

    As long as Ebola isn’t airborne, but only aerosolized, can pass with fomites, or through physical contact with Ebola patients…then we can use social distancing, have several months of supplies, and take normal precautions to avoid it.

    The latter two parts are simple to do. It’s what our ancestors did. The first part (social distancing) was a normal aspect of earlier American life before WW2. People didn’t go out when there was contagion within a community. Those citizens during the Great influenza Pandemic who did social distancing had the least issues with contagion.

    It’s entirely possible that in a full blown pandemic with an Ebola contagion around, that people would simply stay home due to practical fear of it, not afraid of infection, but wisely concerned about contracting it. Which means if the majority stay home, then less people are getting infected, but also that no one can sell you supplies.

    If your job is in critical infrastructure: water, utilities, medicine, security, law enforcement, military, mortuary, etc, then there is a chance that you could be STUCK at work due to sequestering. Which means it’s critical to have supplies for your family since you might not be there to protect them.

    1. It would be wisdom to look through your preps, see what is missing, think how you would handle a shutdown in America, print out some of Ken’s basic articles, and store them.

      You might be the only person in your neighborhood that prepares. Right now, some people are waking up. They thought it could never happen here. You might be able to share some of Ken’s articles and detail what you’re doing (cautiously and obliquely) to help them process this and to make their own preparations.

      I would imagine a lot of prepper supplies could be seriously short as people suddenly make purchases. Buying at the last minute is never a good idea and adds to shipping costs to get it there stat.

      Realize that if Ebola shuts things down, then a lot of other medical problems will still be around, and those ordinary issues like routine infections could be very serious or deadly if the medical centers are hammered. Please check your medical supplies.

      Consider what you would do to supplement calcium, iron, and other minerals as well as vitamins for your children.

  22. I think each community will designate the specific medical facilities to be used exclusively for Ebola triage and treatment. In those facilities NOT dedicated to Ebola, a reception “tent” will greet arriving patients and inspect each for possible contamination. Those suspected of contamination will be told, or taken, where the local Ebola dedicated site is. No treatment of any sort shall be conducted for Ebola related patients, who will not be allowed to physically enter the hospital building. Armed personnel will be on hand to prevent this triage being by-passed, and to force compliance of suspect patients to remove themselves to the designated place.

    Possibly, you will be directed to get on a waiting bus, along with other suspected Ebola patients. Possibly, once identified by a triage nurse, you will not have a choice in the matter, and must get on the bus. Going home may not be an option.

    This shall allow those with non-Ebola related issues some medical response. However, an infected person may also have broken their leg..or have been involved in a car accident..and may be unable to communicate in any way, being unconscious or incapacitated by injury. Medical action may need to take place immediately, before ANY Ebola test is possible. In fact, an infected person may suffer symptoms which increase the chances of their becoming injured.

    Now, imagine YOU are a First Responder. You are a Triage Nurse. You are the Security Officer at the hospital. (Imagine having to physically restrain an infected person from breaking through triage in their attempt to see their Doctor. Exactly HOW do you restrain them?) DO YOU GO TO WORK?

    Imagine. A panicked father arrives at the hospital with his gravely ill 6 year old daughter, who is having trouble breathing, and obviously suffering from symptoms of hemorrhagic fever. He is told to leave the hospital and go to the designated Ebola facility across town. The father thinks his daughter will not survive the trip and demands someone help her..NOW. The medical staff knows that his daughter has no chance of survival, not even with all the new magical inhibitors, and refuse the father’s plea. Besides his daughter…the father has also brought along his .9mm auto…

    “I said,” the father hisses, quickly pointing his small automatic at the head of the Triage Nurse,”Help her, NOW!”

    “After all,” he thinks, “What’s to lose?” He’s been touching his daughter all along, the car radio speaks of nothing but the plague, and he’s heard rumors of what happens to people getting on the bus….

    “It really doesn’t matter anymore….”

  23. Level 4 bio containment for Ebola has been standard for years. They are spraying down workers in Africa.. Why are hospital workers not being sprayed down prior to doffing gear? I am ok a with a full dunk in bleach after any contact.. White hair might be cool.

    Ision hope you are just fear-mongering, I really do.

    Imagine 50% of the people that called in sick you know last year died.. Unfathomable.

    I think those on welfare smoking pot and playing games all day will be the ultimate winners. The contact with the real world is pretty low. Sparks the movie Idiocracy on an accelerated level..

  24. Where are we in that prediction? Week 3? So by

    Ebola Week 0 (10,000) 7 Jan 15
    Ebola Week 3 (20,000) 28 Jan 15
    Ebola Week 6 (40,000) 18 Feb 15
    Ebola Week 9 (80,000) 11 Mar 15
    Ebola Week 12 (160,000) 1 Apr 15
    Ebola Week 15 (320,000) 22 Apr 15
    Ebola Week 18 (640,000) 13 May 15
    Ebola Week 21 (1,280,000) 3 Jun 15
    Ebola Week 24 (2,560,000) 24 Jun 15
    Ebola Week 27 (5,120,000) 15 Jul 15
    Ebola Week 30 (10,240,000) 5 Aug 15
    Ebola Week 33 (20,480,000) 26 Aug 15

    Hmm, let’s see if that comes true.

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