PREPS

Hurricane Irma Spaghetti Track Models (and more)


(click image for latest positional update)

 

Hurricane Irma Strongest Ever in Atlantic?

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Irma was a “potentially catastrophic” storm. The maximum sustained winds are now 185 mph as of this post.

Irma could potentially explode into the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. Currently this hurricane is the strongest ever recorded outside the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

As Irma churns closer to the U.S. coast, the path is becoming more certain. South Florida, particularly the Keys, is increasingly likely to take a hit.

This hurricane is so large that the National Weather Service is encouraging not to focus too much on its direct path. This is because those who live well outside the cone will potentially be affected given its size.

My own personal observations suggest that Hurricane Irma might likely go right up through Florida, maybe up the coastline. Looks like it will make a turn northward after reaching South Florida Sunday morning.

UPDATE 1: Thursday AM. Looks like models may be favoring the east side of Florida. Though Irma is so powerful ALL look to be affected in FL and beyond. Runs of four track models—the European, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models—were in strikingly close agreement that Irma will continue on a west-northwest track till Saturday, then arc sharply to the north-northwest. All four model runs placed the center of Irma within roughly 50 miles of Miami on Sunday morning.

UPDATE 2: Friday PM. Hurricane Irma weakened from Category 5 to Category 4 strength on Friday morning, but still represents an extreme danger to much of Southern Florida. The Florida Keys will take the full force of the storm, with storm surge of up to 10 feet. Southwest Florida is expected to see a storm surge of 6 – 12 feet.

UPDATE 3: Saturday AM. Still en route to a potentially catastrophic hit on Florida. Hurricane Hunters found that Irma had re-intensified to Category 5 strength. The most recent consensus of models is that this track will run inland along the west side of the Florida peninsula from south to north.If Irma comes inland across far southwest Florida, it may pass directly over Naples. Hurricane-force winds are possible, and damaging tropical-storm-force winds are very likely, well up and down the west and east coasts of Florida, as well as inland, including the Orlando area.

STORM SURGE
NHC’s storm surge forecast was hiked significantly in their 11 am EDT Saturday advisory, with 10 – 15′ of surge now expected along the west coast of Florida as far north as Fort Myers, 6 – 10′ from Fort Myers to Sarasota, 5 – 10′ in the Florida Keys, and 5 – 8′ in Tampa Bay.

UPDATE 4: Sunday AM. Irma crossing Lower Florida Keys. Cat 4. Irma may reach the southwest coast of Florida on Sunday afternoon while still at Category 4 strength. Regardless of its peak winds at landfall, Irma poses an extremely serious storm-surge threat to the highly populated, surge-vulnerable stretch of coastline from Fort Myers to Tampa.

 
See ‘Spaghetti’ Track Models Below:

 
Incredible IR satellite image as Irma eye wall passes over Leeward Islands:
credit: UW-Madison/CIMSS

 
Visible satellite image of Hurricane Irma during 9-6-2017
credit: NOAA

 

Preparedness

Fortunately according to news reports it appears that many people in Florida are taking the warnings serious. People are gathering supplies. News reports indicate that stores are already selling out of many items.

No doubt that recent Hurricane Harvey has more people thinking about the potential for disaster.

Florida is so very low lying that flooding will surely be a very big issue should Hurricane Irma move up the state rather than glance across.

Storm surge along the coast (and inland to an extent) is always a very big concern and this one might be pretty bad.

It might be time to bug out for the duration if you live in a danger zone…

Hurricane Preparedness Checklist

Hurricane Ham Radio Nets

It might be interesting for those with Ham Radios to listen in on the various Ham Radio Nets as they become activated for this hurricane. As you discover nets, please leave the info & frequencies in the comments section below and I’ll add them up here….

The Hurricane Watch Net
14.325 MHz

 

Spaghetti Track Models (and more)

I have put together the following montage of clickable images with forecasts, satellite pictures, spaghetti track models, and other useful data for your interest. They will automatically update when new imagery becomes available, so long as you refresh or return to this page.

-Load time might be slower than usual due to the embedded imagery.
-I will add more as new relevant images become available.
-Click on images for larger version.

 

(IRMA has come and gone. Models removed)

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74 Comments

  1. Ken
    Thanks for the info, good job, and very good links.

    From what I see Irma IS GOING TO HIT FLORIDA, could be the entire state by the size of that sucker…..

    I have driven Florida, time to move is NOW!

    1. Not in the latest model run of the GFS it now shows what the EURO 12z yesterday showed with a stronger trough to the north. If the trough is stronger which it will likely be then the storm goes east of Florida. I think this is what you will see new models doing. The likely process is somewhere in between. Not good for Florida either way but east track is much much better being on the west coast of the storm with the eye off the coast. It’s still not good but it isn’t as bad. Don’t focus on every model run. Somewhere in the middle is very devastating for many cities as well as Mid-Atlantic areas all the way to Maryland.

    2. Also don’t focus on the eye areas to the north will be hit with winds if you watched the latest intensity forecasts out to 168 hours they don’t look good on either model and where the storm is makes this pretty much a bad storm for much of the east coast.

    3. If you haven’t already left, you have a big problem. The roads are already clogged BIG time! And the gas stations have long lines. At least this is the case in the Port Charlotte area, one hour south of Tampa. My sister just returned from the Keys this evening and was met at her house by a friend who said the stores were being emptied. She got supplies before she went on her trip, but hit the stores again and came home with more goods. She is also filling extra water containers. With the TX hurricane aftermath so fresh in everyone’s mind, people are taking is hi a monster more seriously.

    4. I live in Florida. We are now in the direct path of Hurricane Irma. Devastation to Florida is very real and many lives will be impacted. I pray that because we are older and chose to shelter in place, that we will counted as survivors when this is all over( the alternate shelter is 8 blocks from our home)! The people of Texas and Florida will need help when this is over. I just heard , Senator Nelson from Florida, talking about FEMA being bankrupt in 3 days or so. Where is the logic of us going more in debt to fund FEMA when Rand Paul Introduced America First Plan to Fund Hurricane Relief by Cutting Wasteful Spending…
      This America First amendment would cover the $15.25 billion by instead using existing funds that have been earmarked for foreign aid but haven’t been spent. His amendment would not have impacted security assistance or programs funded out of the State or Defense Departments.
      Senator Nelson, Senator Marco Rubio, and all Senators that don’t support this should be ashamed for not supporting this. Nobody asked us , the taxpayers, about giving away our sweat equity away to foreign countries that hate us, when our money should stay at home for natural disasters in the United States rather than raising the debt ceiling. Let’s think AMERICA FIRST!!!!!

  2. Remember at any given point in fl you are 60 miles or less from the ocean..
    Im in s fl gulf side. Things are getting a little crazy already down here. If you don’t have you aint gettin it. Crap! I dont have enough beer! Need to get the good stuff out of my long term storage…
    We will be bugging out now probly on Friday

    1. 2030hrs. Hurricane Zone Update S FL Gulf Side.
      Getting pretty surreal out here. Luckily I did manage to find a fresh supply of beer. :)
      Massive lines at all grocery stores cant eve pull into the parking lots. A Battalion of pickup trucks at the building supply lined up trying to purchase cork board for their homes. Neighbors next door filling up sand bags in the dark. They asked where to get sand and I told them that they are in FL and standing on it. All of our ground is sand. I’ll cut them some slack they are in their 20’s… ;)
      Any how just puttering now and getting all my gear ready for loading on Thursday Looking to bug out on Friday.

      1. White Cracker
        good job on the beer score, ya got to have priorities, BTW if ya get run out of FL, come on by the 4 Corners I have 7 5-gallon kegs of hpmebrew awaiting. And a little high octane if yar inclined
        Be safe out there ok?

        1. thanks for the invite. still waiting to see how things shake out. It is looking better today for projected landing. Still ready to leave friday if need be. Id perfer to be around so i can set out my special sign which reads if “You Loot We Shoot” Heard it is working well in Texas.
          Any how back to preping for the storm L8R

          1. White Cracker
            Was going to suggest we head up to oldhomesteder’s place
            BUT I hear he’s doing a ‘Smoked Brisket’ by just hanging it outside :-(

  3. I sure wish Irma would just fizzle out but it doesn’t look promising. This storm is a monster and I sure hope everything is battened down where a probable/possible hit might occur. This may put a real crimp in people’s lives down South, and a double whammy hitting the states within 30 days. Let’s hope Congress gets off their duffs and gets funds available for infrastructure rebuilding and those who need it fast. We shall see!

      1. Nailbanger, the DC politico rats will be the first to jet out of there leaving the everyday citizen to drown and die!!
        Would be nice to see them up to their necks in dirty floodwater though….

  4. My buddy in Merritt Island, FL left yesterday. He left a day before the mandatory evacuation during Matthew last year. He’s leaving days ahead this time. A good excuse to go see the grandkids.

    He told me yesterday his gut told him to board up then leave.

    Everyone needs to make their own decision whether to stay or leave. Most have no choice but to stay.

    Wish those folks the best of luck. Looks like they’re going to need it…

    1. I just remember Andrew i think it was, block after block of homes with no roof or totally destroyed, was going to go and work down there on the rebuild but the guy we were going to work for decided to just bulldoze the subdivision they were building in, was cheaper.

  5. If the storm goes up the middle of the state, those on the east coast will get the worst due to the rotation pulling water off the Atlantic.
    If it goes up the west coast, the gulf side will see the worst
    The rest will have the wind and rains to deal with.
    Florida is long and flat, it will be bad regardless.

  6. Thanks for compiling the images. Have in-law in Ft. Meyers, they are going to boogie Wednesday or Thursday, they picked up more water Sunday, went again today and could not locate any. I did read where there is a Wednesday mandatory visitors evacuation in the Keys (if true, it is the internet after all). Praying for the Florida folks.

    1. We also phone talked they are going north then northwest to get out of the danger area, with no end destination yet.

      1. That is seemingly (at this moment) a good direction to bug out. Up to the panhandle and then “left” (west) or NW somewhere…

  7. I can’t see the models on this page b/c I have dialup that won’t load it.

    I noticed a high pressure front is moving steady across the midwest to the S$E coast when Irma heads to Florida. I predict if this front is strong enough, Irma will clip Florida, head up the East coast and be pushed back out to the Atlantic. Only a hunch, but I have seen it happen before with high pressure systems colliding with hurricanes, stalling them or moving them back.

  8. That storm is huge, if i lived down there i would be loading anything i cared about into a container and getting out of there…

  9. I live in Orlando, Florida. Hurricanes are one of the main reasons I prep. But, months ago, I planned for my wife an me to get on a plane, this coming Friday morning, and fly to Seattle, WA. So, fate has me getting out just in time, and leaving all my preps behind in my abandoned home. I will only have what is packed in my luggage, should my home be flooded. I am giving my weapons to my son, so they will not be in the house. I have given my son all the information on my preps, which will remain serviceable and edible, even if the house is flooded. All that work setting up my preps, and, when I would have needed them, I will be sucking down straight bourbon, and watching the disaster on TV, in a mansion in Issaquah, WA, instead. I just hope the roof stays on. Shame all the furniture in my house is brand new…oh, well.

    1. I pray you can still get out on Friday by plane. There will be high winds coming the day before easily. I hope you are leaving in the morning. Stay safe.

      I wish I could post the picture my sister sent me by text of the highway a mile from their home…it is clogged with people already trying to leave. She sent it because I suggested they come north to our place for a week or so.

    2. BRING RAIN
      We are having our own set of problems up in western Washington right now with fire and smoke and heat , Saturday two kids started a fire in the Columbia river gorge with fire crackers, and big fires near mount Rainer ,and Roslyn ,down by mount st,Helens we have heavy smoke ,can’t see much over 200yds ,,
      Could use some of that rain,,, looks like the fires will burn till October when the rain season starts not much hope of putting them out till then ,forest service just announced their not going to try to put the one out near mount Rainer
      There streched too thin , something like 250thousand ac are burning

      1. 0ldhomesteder
        my mom just told me of the Gorge Fire…. nasty for sure. Says ash is falling even at Lake Oswego

      2. Here in the high desert the smoke today has played around with 1/4 mile to 3/4 mile visibility. Look out a window and you think it’s fog drifting by. Seems like the whole western US is on fire.

      3. 0ldhomesteader
        We had rain last evening. Not a lot but enough to help knock down the smoke.

  10. I live in Georgia, about 80 miles north of the GA/FL line. All hotels and motels are fully booked. Churches are already making plans to help evacuees. Arenas are preparing to house evacuated horses. Animal shelters are opening spaces. I see people really gearing up to help out.

  11. Watching all the models closely. Am on the east coast/central area near Daytona. If it comes up through the state, I think it will drop alot before it gets to us. We can handle a 2-3! Water is scarce along with gas and canned goods. Stores are restocking daily but can’t keep up. Pulled into walmart today and the whole parking lot was full. Looked like black Friday shopping!! All I want to do is fill up with gas 1 more time and then I am ready to hunker down. Have gas in storage but would rather not dip into it yet. Gonna be a few sleepless nights coming up.
    Another beautiful day in the neighborhood!!

  12. Florida right now is beyond crazy. I’m stuck in Orlando till Thursday eve and my wife and I are discussing plans to evacuate when i get home to the Fl west coast. Tampa region. Can’t do it before due to jobs. Issue is if we bug out Friday will there be enough gas to get far enough away. Would rather be at home than stuck on the road when it hits. We have all the preps we need at home.

    Have been told of long gas lines on both the east and west coast. Fights breaking out. Stores empty. Wife decided to stop today to see what she could get extra. Said it was worse than black friday. She did get 2 more cases of water before they announced they were out.

    Personally I think it will turn and hit the Miami area and skirt up the east coast of Fl for a bit and then to SC. We will still get some bad rains and winds. I’m stilll thinking we will just bug in and see what happens. I’ll keep everyone updated as I can.

    Everyone be safe in FL and north of here. It will still be a big rainmaker.

    Adapt and Overcome.

    1. 11He9, good to hear from you….
      May you and your wife know just what to do when it is needed
      Safe travels home for you…
      Good Providence and Protection to you and yours….

    2. @11HE9,
      Adding my thoughts and prayers to Shepherdess’s. wishing you safe travels home, and may God keep you & yours as you decide the best course of action.

  13. I know it is politically incorrect but nobody here gives damn about that anyway so I’ll say it. My prayers for all of you in harms way and may GOD be with you all.

  14. I’ve been trying to get a hold of uncle in FL but no luck yet. I am praying he and the 2 cousins there are out of harms way. I think my cousin (FR. T) is still staying with him and I just hope he can talk uncle to “bug” out and get away from the coast. Other cousin and sons are in Boca and haven’t heard from him either. Their little bro and family are in the Bahamas. Son 1 in GA says they shut down early in Savannah due to the rain and wind that’s been increasing all day. He and family are in ATL area and are expecting high winds and a LOT of rain.
    I am praying for all in the path of Irma.

  15. Many prayers go to all in the path of Irma as they still are with those who are still in the Harvey aftermath. I have several friends and family in FL and the Carolinas. Trying to convince them all to get out. With the unknown path, I am worried. They seemed to have known more about Harvey then Irma.
    Many prayers for those in the line of the fires also. All of this going on, everyone needs to be prepared, no matter the state they reside in!!

  16. Florida in-laws hit the road at 5 a.m. EDT heading north then northwest. A Cat 4/5: too much risk. Will stop after a safe distance and review most current storm track info; Data, Analysis, Decision, Action process; step and repeat.

    1. @ Grey,
      Glad to hear they are on the move. After watching What happened in Texas, I’m sure more people are making the choice to get out of Irma’s path. Wishing them safe travels, and minimal damage to return to.

  17. Asked the folks that have lived in our area all their life’s how this hurricane could effect us. They told me that storms that side swipe the Carolinas bring bad things to the north Georgia mountains. High winds, toppled trees and days or weeks with no power. Stopped by the feed store for extra critter food and the saw shop for extra bar and two new chains for each saw. Picked up a 12 volt chain sharpener that hooks to the truck battery with alligator clips. We have a lot of retired folks in the area that are going to need help with trees blocking driveways and roads.

  18. Sent dh’s nephew an email last evening. He lives on the west side of fl, have not received a HI, am alright so this day will call him. He has a computer business that he runs, so I am not sure how he is prepared. He is ex military hoping he has all his duckies in a row for this storm that is coming in to the state.
    Bil’s dad is on the same side of fl as dh’s nephew, he & his wife go there every year(part time residents).

  19. Gov. Scott made a statement that is key to the prepping world: “…We cannot afford to not be prepared ” Praying for you folks in Florida, and the islands. CR

  20. I’ve been listening to Joe Bastardi (seasoned meteorologist that forecast-ed Katrina and Harvey to their exact performance).

    He’s currently saying this is the ugliest since the Labor Day storm of 1935 [sustained winds of 200mph, 8-12,000 killed] and will make the history books for a long long time.

    Says the worst case scenario is if it tracks up the east coast because it won’t lose any intensity; rotating counterclockwise it will keep pulling in strength from the ocean and devastate every city it comes close to.

    Said even a west-coast track will still devastate the entire state.

    Also said that because of its rare size it will produce hurricane force winds as far out as a hundred-and-fifty miles from the eye, where as a ‘normal’ hurricane only does so for about fifty-to-seventy five miles out.

    Given the width of Florida, that says to me that whatever path it takes, the entire state should be evacuating.

    If the people in the northern part don’t leave thinking it won’t touch them if it tracks west, and then it goes east or simply up the middle of the state, there’s going to be a horrific loss of life.

    Winds of 185 mph, stretching 100 miles out from the eye will obliterate entire cities and every city in Florida is within 150 miles from either coast. From Sarasota on the west to Fort Pierce on the east coast is 147 miles. I’m worried.

    This is much worse than most think.

    1. I also tune in to Joe Bastardi during major weather events (he’s on twitter and also has a website, weatherbell.com). He’s very good. He also predicted it when ‘Sandy’ hooked into the northeast a number of years ago.

  21. Older brother still doesn’t know what condition his winter home in Rockport Tx is. Now my younger brother is boarding up in Hollywood Fl. I left Homestead Fl after Andrew and now dealing with the smoke in the NorthWest. This is one reason we prepare.

  22. Tucker Carlson just had an interesting segment on his show. Evidently the Governor of The U.S. Virgin Islands is catching major heat over his guns/ammo confiscation order. Tucker interviewed him by phone and he did an almost comical backtrack from the order. He explicitly said there would be no such confiscations and not only that, but that had no authority to make such an order. He sounded like a real winner. Maybe he will consult some adults before he signs such an order in the future.

    1. Just watched that also. An absolute plethera of non answers,fact dodging, absolute assinine explanation of an order that he signed. I have never heard of the national guard not being fully equipped ++++. If they don’t have enough ammo, couldn’t they get a few hundred thousand rounds from the social security admin. that they received from the previous O administration?

      1. Or get from the USCG. Last time I was in St. Thomas was 2012 on a cruise. There was a USGC launch running along side of our ship with a guy up on a mounted M60 on the bow.

  23. I noticed since Irma has been predicted to hit Florida last weekend, I would say 90% were not preparing until the last minute where gas to leave is running out and mile long lines at every gas station, and of course most grocery stores are empty in the wake of Irma’s path. Many will have to stay and be casualties.

    How many times we have seen this scenario happen? These people face hurricanes all the time, yet 90 % of them seem idiotic to heed the warnings until the last minute. It is also disappointing to see price gouging on bottled water as supplies run out and it seems like people don’t know where water comes from– the sink’s faucet that can fill up empty bottles!

    There will always be a large segment of the population that will never prepare in time, costing lives and expenses put on everyone else. It is as if I never had purchased heating fuel or firewood for the winter where I live with 40 below weather as it is for Florida residents not preparing for hurricanes and this Irma is the worst of them all. They have no insight for situational awareness or preparing. I am besides myself seeing the panic now on TV reports. Pray it doesn’t hit too hard.

    I wish all Floridians were readers of Ken’s blog.

  24. On the weather channel last night, the news ticker said FEMA has 8.6 million liters of water ready for Florida. Miami-Dade and Broward counties alone have a combined population of almost 4.2 million people.
    8.6 million liters = 2.26 million gallons for all of Florida. I am sure there is more in a federal warehouse somewhere, but WOW! Don’t count on getting some easily from FEMA.

  25. On Cool news now the damage this storm is causing on the islands …shows damage on Turks and Caicos… awful. If you are in Florida you need to leave. Winds of 185mph hit them…90-95% of homes damaged or collapsed.

    1. Just Sayin’
      Finally reached dh’s nephew…….he is staying!! He is ex-military, survived a few hurricanes already. He says he has to work and did so during a cat 3. You do what you can and it is up to the person to stay or leave, their choice. He could head out to olMiss but I doubt he would go,has family there.

  26. Filled 200 sand bags today with SIL and DIL while their better halves were working. WHEW!! Getting to old for this stuff!! Got 4 houses bagged and ready! Storm coming right up the middle now. Clean off the patios tomorrow and hang storm shutters on saturday and I am ready. Will stay in place and hope the storm surge isn’t too bad.
    All interstates are clogged and hotels are full. 2 daughters and families are headed to Tallahassee to get away. Usually a 4 hour drive…predicted to be 7-8 this time. They have young kids so are worried for them.
    Another beautiful day in the neighborhood!!

  27. Thanks for providing updated charts with essential information! Far superior to broadcast TV which usually features either politicians advertising what a terrific job they are doing or “fluff” human interest stories.

  28. “The mayor of Miami Beach Philip Levine also warned that Irma could have an impact of “nuclear” proportions, though it was unclear if he was referring to the two nuclear power plants that lie directly in the path of the hurricane.”
    They’re calling it “Irmageddon”.

    1. CR,

      HARP is experimental. If you want to stop hurricane Irma, air drop Hillary, Rosie O’, or Joy Behar into the eye of the storm. They have a proven record for taking the wind out of anything they’re near.

      1. Dennis
        That is AWESOME!!!! ROLWL…….Poor hubby thinks I have lost my mind again. Wonderful reading all those with GREAT sense of humor.

  29. USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Iwo Jima, USS New York and USS Farragut ordered to group up and position themselves to assist in relief for Irma. There is a lot of hardware and a lot of sailors and marines ready to help with federal, state and local teams. USS Oak Hill and USS Kearsarge also ordered to move closer to Florida from their position in the Gulf. USS Wasp already deployed to USVIs.

  30. Dh’s nephew called us today, he did fine. The eye of the hurricane passed right over their house, he had his BOB ready should the need arise.
    They have no power at the present time, he believes it will be back on in a few hours as the companies are working on the lines.
    We discussed ordering a propane generator, looks like we are going to have them deliver a tri fuel genny to his home. He is self employed an can not afford it himself, so checking out prices for a unit. It will arrive after he has power back on(maybe) but will be nice for the next hurricane that passes through leaving them without power.
    He does not know it is coming we are doing this because he needs it, and he is family.

    1. Antique Collector

      Your post made me smile…. Ken can forward my address for the next Generator LOLOL

      You re a good person……

    2. Hi AC,
      Glad to hear DH’s nephew is okay, and I think it’s great you are in a position to help him with a new generator… I’m sure he will be ecstatic over your gift : )

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