preparedness scenario planning priorities
SYSTEMIC RISKS

Preparedness Scenarios and Planning Priorities

preparedness scenario planning priorities

Setting Contingency Planning Priorities for Preparedness
( POLL Question below )

Guest article by Bogan

 

Many of the ModernSurvivalBlog articles and comments focus on general preparedness:

— Basic priorities such as water, food, shelter, clothing, communications, tools,  etc.  a topic at a time.

— Drilling down deeply to help readers plan and prepare for pretty much any situation with respect to that topic.

Also MSB readers are familiar with “levels” of preparedness – which allow them to target and measure their progress.  All highly useful.

 

That said, becoming more prepared would be much easier if you knew exactly what to plan for, right?

Knowing the contingency you are confronted with allows you to focus!

Separate the wheat from the chaff – so you can spend your prepping efforts and dollars to maximum effect!

For example, what if your worst case scenario is an influenza pandemic (or ebola, anthrax, smallpox…. whatever)?

You would stockpile medical and food supplies. This would allow you and your family to isolate yourselves from the rest of society so you can operate independently without becoming contaminated for a limited time – say, up to a year –  ultimately to survive the situation.

However, these preps might be of less use if the actual scenario is, say, foreign invasion of a much longer duration where kinetic supplies might be more relevant.  Or an EMP/CME event where the grid and communications systems go down.

 

For those who are not on unlimited budgets (a lot of us!) the “opportunity cost “ of a ‘focus on one scenario’ means you will pay less attention to other potential scenarios. Some of them pretty ‘massive’.

 

Long Duration ‘ Big ‘ Preparedness Scenarios

These scenarios might include events like nuclear war or economic collapse (or others). There is a whole raft of equipment, supplies and training needed for those!

The various massive preparedness scenarios have been discussed exhaustively.
Some of the most often mentioned includes:

  • Nuclear war
  • Biological, Chemical attack
  • Foreign invasion
  • Civil war
  • Pandemic
  • EMP/ CME
  • Massive volcano eruption (Yellowstone caldera, Iceland) or meteorite strike leading to environmental catastrophe
  • Economic collapse
  • And more!

 

Shorter Duration Less ‘ Massive ‘

Events on a regional level like tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, short-term power outages, riots in the big city, etc. are also scenarios worth preparing for. But these are likely to be shorter in duration than the truly massive scenarios.

 

Approach One at a time

One approach to managing the various preparedness scenarios is to first focus on one.  Then once a minimum level of preparedness has been achieved,  move to the next one.

But which one should you pick first?  And second?  And so forth…

None of us has the ability to predict the future with any precision. But we do all have the ability to think through what our options and priorities are….with help from our fellow MBB contributors!

 

Poll Question – Results

Of the ‘massive’ (worst case) scenarios listed, which 5 would you most likely prepare for?

The results are in:

preparedness scenarios poll results

1. Economic Collapse
2. EMP / CME (grid down)
3. Civil war
4. Pandemic
5. Biological, chemical attack
6. Nuclear war
7. Massive volcano eruption
8. Foreign invasion

 

HOW WOULD YOU RANK ORDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE BIG SCENARIOS?

WHICH SCENARIO DO YOU THINK IS THE MOST LIKELY? SHARE YOUR REASONS!

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99 Comments

  1. things being the way they are right now and it scares me to even write this i think we will end up with civil war first after that its anyones guess

    1. Kevin I agree with you whole heartily..The tensions between Race, Religion, Gender, and Politics have never been this high. The common ground which once was is no longer…We live in a time where things can happen in a drop of a Dime. We must be prepared and have the fortitude to over come any obstacle as a society if we are going to have a chance to survey.

    2. a “civil war” would be very short term >>>> because with chaos comes opportunity – original oppenants in this civil war would be joining against the new common enemy …

    3. kevin, While I tend to agree with you that civil war is quite likely; I feel that civil war will be the manifestation or outcome rather of the event that precipitates that same. I don’t see a civil war coming about on its own; rather, it will be the symptom that is evident instead of the cause. Economic, some biological, some one or a combination of the other possibilities will undoubtedly result in what will be termed a ‘civil’ war.

  2. I believe that an economic collapse is the most likely scenario in the near future. Taking lessons from Venezuela and the Weimar Republic, we keep minimal money in the bank just to cover a month’s bills. We keep some cash on hand, but not as much as we had at one time. All extra money is converted to tangible goods.

    1. Peanut,

      I worry about an economic collapse, since I am not employed and rely mostly on Social Security. It seems the most likely economic event might be a reduction or elimination of Social Security payments. If this country’s debt gets any higher and we cannot borrow any more, then they might not be able to make their Social Security obligations. It would be almost as bad for seniors if the government couldn’t pay interest on the national debt as many retirees rely on Treasury interest for part of their income.

      1. Or if they went the Greece route and said “We’re still making your payments, but you can only use $100 per month from your accounts.”

      2. I agree Daisy. Each SS check that makes it to us we treat it as the last check ever and spend accordingly.

    2. From the poll, the only things that have happened in any number over the last couple hundred years is civil war and economic collapse. Those have happened all around the world. However, I believe the most likely event to occur within CONUS in the near future would be an economic collapse. While all the others are definitely possible, the economy is on a much shakier footing at this time than the other scenarios. A civil war, ehh, don’t think so. There are rifts within society at this time but I believe no where near the level at which people will take up arms in large scale numbers and begin shooting.

  3. Good morning. Economic collapse was not on top of my list until recently, data doesn’t lie. In a Zerohedge article this morning about ‘suicide rates soar among American workers’, it lays it out:

    34% of Americans made less than 20k last year
    48% made less than 30k
    59% less than 40k
    68% less than 50k!

    The last time #’s were close, was 1929! It is already happening.

    People will get desperate when their family is hungry and they can’t afford basic shelter. That will lead to the increase of civil unrest, war, etc.

    Failure of the electric grid was always the most obvious to me. I was surprised to see an article here today! I had to mention where I got the data from, it only seems right to point It out. I live in NJ and it is very expensive to live here.

    Middle Class Destruction: Suicide Rates Soar Among American Workers

    1. NJ is insanely expensive! You should give some examples. Just visited recently, real estate, taxes; don’t know how anyone can afford to live there.

    2. I believe the post would have been complete if it had included the tax rate for these incomes. 42% of Americans don’t pay income tax. Net income would have been a good statistic as well.

      Just a note: in some countries a percent of pay checks is automatically removed for the former students education loan. Sounds reasonable to me.

      Stay frosty,

  4. Economic collapse is our first worry, after that “civil war” which in all honesty will be Revolutionary war…not civil war (MHO). Have a number of friends that lived through Socialism and Communism….that make it clear that they would die fighting it off rather than live under that rule again.

  5. I also think economic collapse will be the downfall of our nation, followed by civil unrest and or civil war. This will play right into the Agenda 21 plan. The population will thin itself out threw starvation and war. Then the leaders will come out of there bunkers using the military to collect the remaining population into the cities. This is when we the people become property of the state.

  6. I don’t prepare for any single event. I see prepping as having a temporary cushion against any disruption of normal life, with the accumulation of tools, materials, and skills to be able to integrate into a long term change of the norms we have become accustomed to. I “live the lifestyle” as NRP talks of to a certain extent, but I retain the comforts (excesses) that we as a people have become accustomed to, while fully aware, and expecting, a lifestyle altering event, whether suddenly, or gradually.

    I have no illusions as to my ability to succeed should things go seriously south. My years of experience and gathering skills that will stand me in good stead for surviving tough times is tempered by my aging, battle scarred body. We all have a shelf life. I have passed my “best by” date. My mind tells me I’m still a teenager, my body tells me the truth. That doesn’t mean I will lay down without a fight. That’s completely alien to who I am. Thus, I prepare and will deal with what comes my way…..till I can’t.

    1. I certainly have to agree with the part about my mind tells me I’m still a teenager. Reality is I’m working my bucket list as friends and acquaintances are dropping like flies.

      I continue to prep but mostly for family now and am certainly concerned about the world my grand kids will hopefully survive to grow up in. I think we (family) are in a fairly good location for most scenarios. Mega tsunami after a Cascadia fault event would cut us off from the rest of the country for an indefinite amount of time. It would also leave us with a huge amount of dead to bury.

      I guess my greatest fear is economic collapse followed by civil war. I have a hard time wrapping my head around Americans killing Americans but I can not discount the possibility. With a divided nation in ruins I think we will be ripe for invasion from China or Russia or coalition of the two. I can’t help but wonder if this is being orchestrated.

      I’m also increasingly worried about forest fires as it looks like the west could be heading into another drought.

      1. me;
        “I have a hard time wrapping my head around Americans killing Americans but I can not discount the possibility.”
        Look at the murder rates in the US….. Frightening in time of “peace” imagine when TSHTF or when society collapse totally.

        1. NRP/me
          Agree, i can tell you for sure if it is ever a them or me scenario or people demanding i hand anything over, its going to be them,,,,,
          And i have sufficient overwhelming means to back that up and the mental demeanor to make one hell of a mess. Can o worms, dont open it

  7. Personally, im just trying to have a cushion, life happens, rather not starve or have to seek out food. Some stuff is just plain common sense,
    IE
    I live on an island
    All our everything pretty much comes from elsewhere
    Money can be tight for me
    Stuff happens either man made, self made or nature
    If i can stuff away a few months or more of whatever to get me through a rough spot i should be ok.
    Just common sense,
    Like our buddy NRP says, “lifestyle”
    There could be a point that all the cash or silver wont buy you a roll of TP or a pound of rice,
    Rather not worry.

    1. Tommyboy,

      I agree. I don’t prepare for just one or a few events. I have had several events in my life where I was prepared and got through just fine, and one event (the first) where I was not prepared. So far the events have been either health related or economic.

      I think some events are more likely than others. And some I don’t prepare for. I live near the Yellowstone volcano, so if it goes off, I will die quickly.

      1. Daisy K,
        Life happens, sometimes it takes unfortunate turns, this i know for certain, sometimes having those cans o SPAM and that few buckets o rice and drum of fuel are real reassuring, one less thing to worry about, there are of course things that happen though that no physical supplies will fix, but such is life eh, know neither the hour or the day

  8. I don’t really prepare for anything specific. I was lucky to come into it with a base–my parents started preparing before I was born. They’ve had time to cover most of the bases.

    Of those scenarios listed, I think economic collapse is most likely. It’s happening right now. As people get desperate, riots and violence increase as a natural consequence, so civil/revolutionary war would follow. Foreign invasion would only come as a followup, if things got so bad here that the rest of the world decided to step in (or someone decided to move their timetable up and take advantage).

    So I prepare as best I can for increasing civil and economic chaos.

    The rest are somewhere in between, each relying on natural or political forces I can’t anticipate.

  9. As many here mentioned , we try to have a “cushion” to fall back on when things get tough and perhaps a little dicey .Our outlook on a scenario is economic crash , government handouts , firearm confiscation, eventually martial law/dictatorship.and being occupied by “helpful” U.N. personel.
    Our number 1 concern is the economy. Economically , our country is in deep doo doo To think otherwise is a fantasy .The U.S. is going into debt to the tune of a trillion dollars a year. We appear to be on the precipice of a step downhill drop into insolvency. Most people are completely unprepared for any difficult times .I do not think having lots of cash set aside is the answer. One scenario may be having cash outlawed and government script forced upon us , so much for cash. Tangibles rule for investing. Stay away from large groups, be low profile and build strong relationships. In our case we keep a close relationship with God for guidance,wisdom and comfort .

  10. Does a multitude of young men carrying foreign flags, throwing rocks, crashing through gates, climbing barricades, and threatening the President count as a foreign invasion?

  11. If you do not think that money is a necessary part of prepping, add up all the payments you make each month for food, autos, insurances, taxes, utilities, ….. we are no longer self-sufficient nor is it possible the way society is structured. So if there is an economic collapse you might as well turn off the power as well because it will be a slow demise to Venezuela or a fast path to death.
    Yes I have many preps but am realistic about my chances if I can not pay my bills – not debts as I have none. The only way to survive this collapse is to totally unplug now like 0ldhomesteader is doing – if that is the way we want to struggle for that scrap of food.
    We are the fools for letting the country go down the socialist drain and we will pay the price. Our 3% forefathers had a lot more courage and valued freedom above all – now we live on bread and circus while it lasts. One economist ? said the west coast is spending all the inherited wealth built up for generations on selfish ends. This applies to the entire country.
    Economic pressures will definitely bring on more violence and possibly war – the total destruction kind.

    1. Hermit us…. I concur, don’t pay your taxes due to economic downturn and we are all done, no amount of preps can help.

    2. Hermit,,, good post ,,,,may I add,,,some of your list will go away ,even taxes stand a chance of being moot ,,,,and your right we (man kind) are not self sufficient,,that was bred out of us years ago ,, BUT we can use the collected kknowledge,,,,,,hence independent but a net work of others ,,there is much I can do but more that I can’t ,,so I need you to fill in the gaps ,,,and you need me likewise ,,, the concept of the gulch is based on just that ,,,as is a ballanced society ,, the funny thing is that to live with one an other we need a way to trade ,hence a form ‘money’ be it a piece of metal ,or a chunk of meat ,do you know that the Templars were the first to come up with paper ‘money’,so one would not need to carry gold ,it was called a ‘note’ to pay on demand,,IN GOLD,,,, prior to that you needed a small army to travel ,,,,back to point ,I’m not worried about real’ money ‘ the fake .unmoney we have today will show it’s true value ,,,those of us that have moved to the real thing will be fine ,,,this is why the valley tradeing post uses PM ,,,NOT PAPER ,,,for those of us that have it figured out ,we will be fine ,and will prosper when all is said and done ,,

      the life boat is ready ,,,will you get in? ,,will you help man it ? What will you bring for the trip?
      ,,,,nice day today going to go out and play
      ,,,,,,,,and as all ways WHO IS JOHN GALT?

  12. I worry about the economy first as I see that being a root cause that will lead to civil war and the escalation of civil unrest ( otherwise known as riots.). From there, I see disease and pandemic following in the footsteps of war where the infrastructure is damaged to the point where we cannot obtain clean, hot water or we lose the ability to remove or transport our waste away from our living areas.

    I am nervous about it because I am still working in the healthcare field butt I also have an interest in history and economics. For now, I work while I can and keep my eyes on the horizon.

  13. Hi all, ever day reader but rare poster. I think it is going to be economic collapse. I was unemployed or underemployed from 2015 thru 2017. Having a supply of food and preps is all that kept me and our family out of bankruptcy. Back in a good paying job, it’s all about saving and rebuilding preps now.

    1. Welcome Km in nc….Lots of folks here have been in your boat. Glad you are part of our bigger picture. Wishing you well.

  14. 1)Economic collapse
    When Americans who are healthy abled body are paid to not work(welfare). Then you have those who come here to be supported by the working tax payers because life in their native country is to hard for them to survive. No wonder we can not take care of those who truly need a helping hand up, to busy supporting those derriere setters.

    2)Invasion
    There are countries who droll over what this land offers in the way of WATER, land, crops & lots of free labor so what if they perish there are plenty of replacements, look at Hitler-Mussolini-Stalin they would have loved to gotten their hands on this land. No difference with the current leaders(dictators)of the foreign countries. They are probably flipping a gold coins(heads or tails) to see what part this nation they will slice and dice for their perverse pravities.

    1. AC
      It is not the abundance of resources alone that made this country what it is. There are other countries that have wealth but have not used it to develop their s0cietiy – Mexico has natural resources, good growing climate, and access to the abundance in the oceans. Some African countries also have much wealth but like Mexico, they have let the country slip away because of laziness and corruption. But let’s just blame the rich and the white guy for all our inequities. Soon we may all be in mud huts.

  15. I believe a grid down scenario is the greatest concern. EMP, somewhat likely, CME possible but way down the list. Cyber attack on the grid, more likely than any would like to believe. Real, long term damage can be done to the grid. It is old and fragile as it is. Often during summer months the generating capacity is near maximum output.

    Most on this site would survive a grid down event, some would even thrive. A grid down event would quickly bring on massive civil strife, as an overwhelming majority have made little to no preparation. There would be “civil disagreements” on a local scale, almost everywhere quickly. Not a civil war per se, just craziness to do whatever it took to feed their children and themselves.

    Our beloved country will not endure a long term power outage and all the things that come from it. Many of the things on Ken’s list would follow within weeks of an extended power outage. I pray we never experience such a thing.

    I cannot understand why our congress chooses to NOT protect our grid. It is a duty they simply ignore. If it happens, I hope our senators and congressmen never get another restful night’s sleep. It would keep me awake at night to know what could happen and then choose to do nothing.

    I guess, we all can only do what each of us can do. Sleep well everyone!

    1. it would cost too much to protect the grid for something that might not happen. Lobbyists are surely talking with the congress. If the head of whatever conglomerate can’t get his multi-million dollar salary because he has to update the grid, heads would roll. Never mind about the heads that will roll if it does go down. They’ll be off in their private jets to their bunkers in New Zealand while the rest of us fight it out among ourselves. It’s not like they care about us.

      1. me,
        I read estimates of 2-5 billion. Not huge money in the grand scheme of gov. spending. A CME definitely WILL happen again at some point. (Carrington event) The ? is when, not if.

  16. Coordinated regional physical attack most likely and easy to pull off, jihadist have been spouting this BS online for about the last 4 years,

  17. Somewhat agree with TommyBoy, I prepare generally and like to have a cushion between me and life’s uncertainties. Locally, Seattle metro area, my concerns are:

    Earthquake, The Nisqually earthquake was unpleasant enough, even though it was ‘small’.

    Weather. Snow is rare here, but a half inch will shut the area down, I prefer to stay home if snow is a serious event (luv me the limited ability to telecommute), however I have been caught in an unexpected snowfall (typical 30 minute drive became 4+ hours). I now keep good kit in the car.

    could also just have a good ole windstorm, with ensuing power loss.

    Volcanos: Mt. Baker, Mt. Ranier, and Mt. St. Helens. Lived in Vancouver WA when St. Helens erupted, not fun.

    Not sure about an economic collapse. Made it through the 2001 and 2008 recessions ok. Not too worried about the job, the FAA says the company needs certification specialists such as myself. If things get so bad that the company goes out then copper, brass, and lead will be more precious metals than gold or silver.

    1. DLS, saw report dutchsinse today mt st helens has some changes on going in magma chamber.might want to check out his vid/ you tube

    2. DLS
      Earthquakes,,,
      They give me the willys,been through a few big ones when i was a kid on the big island, talk about not in control, that makes you realize how small you are.

  18. Economic collapse definitely.
    But we prepair for any and all likelihoods.
    Try to cover all bases.
    It had got me thinking tonight.
    I have enough wood cut for…..three/four normal Winters…..but if I’m using that wood for cooking, boiling useful water, etc also..,.what one year? Year and a half?

    1. JC
      How much time in meds do you have, that realisticly is a limiting factor bud,,,
      Same here, i will be screwed when my asthma meds give up

      1. Tommyboy
        I have just over a year supply of my current meds and if need be another year of expired.
        Limited for sure

        1. Tommyboy
          So concerns me….
          I know nothing of inhalers.
          Is there a way you can stock up?
          Any alternatives you can do???

          I feel soory, knowing what I know could happen, to a rep. of a supplier of ours. He travels hundreds of miles to several locations. He has polio. Now uses a motorized cart that he realizes on. One day he had trouble with it and I helped him get it going again. The What if clouds my head continuously of his possible outcome……..if shtf
          He’s a good guy.

          1. JC
            I have a pretty good stash, been using half the perscribed or less and get 90day restock as soon as i can push the order through so end up about 6-8 months ahead, i actually will be fine for quite a while, figure ill make do. None of the natural stuff works for me short of snorting eucalyptus oils, but thats sorta aint happening,
            Whatever happens happens

          2. Good to hear, Tommyboy.
            U Ain’t alone in this figged up country.😎🤙
            Shaker

        2. Joe c, here I am butting in again…you should be using your oldest meds NOW. IF they are the SAME medication….save the newer ones, with longer expiration date..keep them rotated…if not completely… in part that way..will prolong your best viable supply. older po meds should be stored very cool and can put them in pint jar.. or bigger or smaller… what ever they fit… with oxygen absorber..(hot hands..)then don’t have to worry about the date. If they were good when they went in, will be good when they come out. I use smaller commercial jelly jars for this..

          1. Just Sayin’
            Nope not butting in, your imput is always welcomed.
            Just clarifying info. I do rotate my meds.
            The outdated is what I used to use and had bought an out of pocket supply, but not.throwing away.
            I do have the yr + supply I’m.currently on and rotating..

      2. Tommy, You should try the rabbit tobacco/sweet everlasting..It works like albuterol but does not produce the jitters. My DH stopped getting the albuterol rescue inhalers,on schedule,just gets one a year for when he is out in public place… they were pretty expensive.
        If there was some way to send you a supply, I would… 3 inhales of the smoke works for my DH. so he will use a single cigarette 3 times… and I get the second hand smoke and it helps clear my allergic asthma as well. and the tea reduces mucus and also calms the stomach. Does anyone stateside have your address.?. possibly oh?. anyone i could get a relayed package thru to ? humm… I am guessing 6-8 ounces of leaves and that much of whole herb would enable you to self treat , make a tincture for long term, use for lung and intestinal use…and enable you to have some seed to plant. takes 2-3 years to get the taller growth….when used in conjuction with limited meds cold be enough to give much extended time…

        1. Tommyboy
          ACDH uses it for breaking up the congestion in his lungs, and it really does work-who knew! He uses it 2-3 times a day depending on how congested his lungs become especially with all the smoke that is settling into the valley from the Camp fire.

        2. Thanks for the tip, can order seeds from alchemy works, will see about leaf, unless mr Jorg is willing to exchange email addys for us, but know its against policy

          1. Tommy ,, if ac says ok and your ok I can send you contact info ,,or I can send your info to her ,,,,

          2. Just saying,,,,,,,thanks for the info and help ,,,,hope someday to return to and help you in some way ,,,,thanks again ,,,

          1. Whole plant is medicinal. Leaves are used for smoking.( easiest to roll, could be put in pipe, need a filter to keep from inhailing sparks..) The plants wildcrafted here are very good quality every 3-4 years. They love red clay and south and east facing. require nothing special.. just plant and leave alone.. first growth is a low growing flat plant… then will spike… second year will give a full er taller by thrid year is a pretty little palnt… some areas it does get as tall as 4 feet…. for tea or tincture can use whole plant even root.., including seed pods after the dandilion like seed are dispersed…. but I normally do not pull up plant. seem to get faster regrowth the following year by breaking about 6″ up stem …It produces 2 or 3 crops each year here with the main crop in the fall just before frost.

            Tinture is used for oral ingestion for lung congestion, chest colds,, and bronchitis, is an expectorant.. and dries the lungs reducing mucus… I use from 6-8 cc of double tinctured herb for gastritis, and any IBS type symtoms. works for diarrhea and constipation by restoring enzymes.,

            Tea can be made, I prefer mine with mint tea bag or orange spice tea bag….for gastritis, and used this way it has prevented my lactose intolerance from flaring… Only thing it could have been .
            My BIl did not know i was lactose intolerant and handed me a 12 ounce of Mayfields Eggnog! it was sooo good and I had no gas.. Next morning my DH asked what did it., had had a full cup of tea nigh before. (so technically i can drink 3 cups of rt tea a week and drink milk.)

            Herb Also is slighly antiviral. put in name of Darryl Patton and rabbit tobacco. it should pull up his extensive article on it. He had it assayed.. and the report tells the properties. I have been using everlasting for about 9 years. was the first thing we started using. Both DH and I have allergic asthma…. He tried it as smoke and was blown away that it worked. and quickly.

        3. Just saying,,,,,,,thanks for the info and help ,,,,hope someday to return to and help you in some way ,,,,thanks again ,,,

          1. You all are welcome. Just hope and pray it helps others like it does. us.

  19. have not read through all the threads. but from what I see from lower al.
    we have been in constant invasion for a number of decades, it’s to overwhelm the system. once we are broke and no where to turn civil war has to be the next order, getting there.
    but prepping for any of these sure does attract attention from all your neighbors, some supportive and some not.

    1. Bfn, yes neighbors tend to see every little thing.so always need a reasonable explanation for what we are currently doing at the ready. It is harder to unload a vehicle without them watching down south because of carports instead of garages so prying eyes catch slot. (I.e. “Wow – that’s a lot of beans!” Says the sales clerk when checking out with 6 twenty pound bags on sale for $1 each. “Yes, it is” I reply, “but I cannot ignore the pricing and the food kitchen can always use them, Not a lie, they always need food.)

      Be careful who you enlighten as to what you are doing because unless they are doing the exact same thing, they will come calling when they have need. It may not even be Shtf overall, just for them, but to them you have the means and they need help with whatever so you should supply it.

      I agree you guys are being overrun down there. Climate is reasonable and taxes are low. Also a need to by dems to have southerners in their pocket so they overwhelm the system with those who will vote their way.

      I used to live near Dothan AL for many years, which now has a nuclear power plant. I prefer the climate and dirt here and scarcity of people. Never could get used to peanut hay for animals. LOL

  20. Have no debt but taxes and insurance including health ins. Constitute most of our monthly bills. The stock market is losing all our nest egg.So my biggest fears are Economic collapse then civil war because no one will have any money . And most won’t know how to eat without it.

  21. Economic collapse.
    The whole world is in economic peril.
    We are a worldwide economy and if one major player, ie, China has a meltdown, we will too.
    The stock market is all smoke and mirrors. The major banks control it.
    We prepare for a lot of scenarios, but the economy is the biggest worry.

  22. I could see an authoritarian crack down of local governments brought on by the huge deficits and unfunded liabilities finally catching up with them, they will raise taxes to idiotic levels, people will revolt, polititians and thise they appoint will become targets, disruptions to everything will ensue as the local governments struggle to remain in control, this will lead to an even more violent response from about anyone capable, when you give people no choice and steal from them they go off the rails, sure theres ots of sheep, theres also lots of raptors,,,,

  23. I think an economic collapse is the most likely thing. And it will bring along with all kinds of collateral things.

    But as far as what to prep for many of the things that may happen have numerous things in common so prepping for one gets you prepped for others.

    Plan, prep, learn new skills, buy supplies, guns, tools, food, learn to grow food and you will be well on your way to cope with most things.

    Start living the life now, not when it happens, you will already be way ahead of the game if you do so.

    As bad things come to pass you should be ready to adapt on the fly.

    1. And learn to fly under the RADAR, the nail that is sticking up always gets pounded down, don’t stick up.

      Live within society as it has numerous benefits, but be a grey person that doesn’t get noticed my most people.

  24. Ken a comprehensive article on how to safely find like-minded people to form a MAG may be good to do.

    I have been a prepper for well over 30-years and never found a group of people I felt I could trust.

    I’m mostly a loner and actually like it that way so if things never go bad I’m a pretty happy person. I live well interacting with other people and have no problem getting along with others. It’s more that I like solitude and my own thoughts. I never get bored (sp?) with my own company.

    But in a bad SHTF a group would definitely give a person a better chance.

    My skill set makes me very handy for any group, but I just can’t seem to find one I feel I can trust and that has members that bring useful skills and mindset to the table.

    I will not join a group with people that have limited skills and commitment as they will consume or use more then they give.

    1. Good comment
      I have found that the people I can trust are capable, knowledgeable, and independent. There are two others around here that call each other when help is needed and can be counted on. They see the importance of lending a hand when asked and defense as a unit, BUT do not want to join a “group”. This makes a total of about four that I have met over many years – kind of comparing it to finding that perfect marriage partner.
      I believe the chances of finding a reliable number of people are greatest on this blog site, but many with the right mindset are aging out like me.
      Better a “hermit” be than being betrayed when the SHTF.

      1. hermit us;
        I agree 1000%.
        Wrote an article to Ken about Trust, thinking he did not get it or was not publishable…
        Basically who can you “Trust”?

        1. Trust is huge, and many people make the mistake of giving trust before it is earned. Survivor is a great show to watch, because not only does it remind you how easy it is for people to be untruthful, but also how difficult it can be to detect, especially when dealing with people you’ve only just met.

  25. It’s sometimes hard to stay on task and on a focused direction when trotting down the road to preparedness. While on that path, you get pulled in a different direction as your paranoia pushes you to prepare for something different, while you are trying to cover down on your original intended prep. As the prepper matures, he/she will eventually learn this valuable lesson. Prepare with all scenarios in mind.. Build your kits with a multipurpose mindset. Respectfully, The Break Away Homesteader.

  26. Dennis
    Excellent comment! Like you there are many old warriors and some not so old here who share your feelings. When or if things go wrong we will all hunker down and keep on going! I think all of us here have a purpose and that is to lead the way out, God bless us all.

  27. Economic Collapse.
    Anyone watching the Markets and Cripto?
    Is Economic Collapse not also your dollar not worth as much??? AKA Inflation?

    We are already in an Economic downturn, and the system is failing as we chat.
    BTW, National Dent. $21,750,009,000,000.00-ish right now. So much for a better economy.

    1. NRP
      I thing I read that the Chinese have slowed down buying I-crap and chip sales are down. So, the US financial market is taking a hit – this globalism crap has to stop. We can do very well as a nationalist country without selling our souls, riches, and land to greed corporate opportunists and third world free loaders. We are at the Rubicon now, citizens must take a stand in the next two years or perish as a free country.

      1. hermit us;
        Also the Chinese also just dumped a HUGE amount of T-Bills…. again.
        PS; Dow down over 430 now…. bummer huh?
        Think I should buy a Bicycle some time soon…. May be walking :-)
        BTW, just for poop-n-giggles the Debt is now another $22 BILLION!!!!!!
        Not bad for a few hours huh??????? Way to go USA.

        1. NRP
          Ya you should get a Shwinn – more reliable than that GM truck. ha ha :)
          You can always find more projects to extend your employment for a year instead of six months – if the economy does not totally implode. Maybe start supervising the installation of those culvert style bomb shelters.

          1. hermit us;
            Ever see someone bury a Shipping Container?
            NOT a good idea…. HAHAHA

            PS; My Government Motor’s truck is doing just fine for an old sucker…. Thank you very much :-)

          2. NRP
            Did you see me say, “give them any kind of warranty”? You have to advertise them as triple purpose containers – root cellars, safe spaces, and future no-muss coffins. :)

        2. NRP
          Wait till the CONgress decides they need to do a one off tax on everybodies savings, assets, investments and retirement accounts to cover their debts,,,,,

          1. TommyB….

            SH-SH-SH-SH-SH!!!!! Don’t give the scumbags any ideas.

          2. NMA
            They already discussed it during obummers tenure, this from one of our congress critters who went on to say it was shelved because at the time they figured it would be too detrimental to the obamma legacy

          3. They’ve discussed a lot of things that you don’t want to know about. Just assume that if you can imagine something they’ve already got a plan in place.

      2. Hermit,
        You get that, i get that, lots of others do too, but then theres the other side who says we live in a global workd and should think globally, these same people think open borders is a great thing,
        Yea, its all great, if you want to have extremely wealthy and the surfs who work for them,,,,,

        1. Tommyboy
          How much of your State is owned by non-citizens (or citizens fronting for off-shore money)? When I said owned, I meant land and commercial interests. Who do your politicians bow to?

          1. Hermit,
            Very little in acerage is foreign owned, hotels, condos, high rise, now that stuff has a fairly high percentage of foreign ownership but is a drop in the bucket, it is valuable and highly taxed and taxable.
            The biggest land owners are all huge, Bishop Estate tops it out with Alexander and Baldwin, the Cambel estate, Amfac, and a slew of others, most have been here since before statehood, Bishop estate is the trust of Bernice Pauahi Bishop, one of the last monarchs, there is also ceeded lands managed by the state (poorly) that make up huge huge tracts of land.

          2. The biggest problem with our local political class is that they have sold out any real industry in exchange for placing all the eggs of the state squarely in the visitor industry.
            THAT will end badly as tourism is completely unsustainable. Tourism relegates our islands to a yes mam no mam service industry, it is also the reason why the best and brightest of our younger generations moves away and never comes back, the second area the political class has sold us out to is developers. Again, dooming us all to service jobs as the locals sure as hell cant compete with mainland people buying all the realestate.
            A huge problem is the vacationnrental market and short term rentals, it takes hundreds if not thousands of homes out of the rental or housing market in favor of short term high priced rentals, local housing market sucks, who wants to buy a POS house for 700,000 when they most likely make less than they did in the 80s.

  28. This is a lesson that many have forgotten – stupid globalists

    Mending Wall
    By Robert Frost

  29. I look at it in terms of probability. Of these nation/society/global issues, the most likely would be economic collapse. It happens quite often, especially when socialism is in the mix, the last one for the US ended <100 years ago. The next would be civil war. Again, there's civil wars ongoing worldwide, the last one for the US was <200 years ago.

    Pandemics have occurred regularly, the Spanish Flu would be one of the latest. Is modern medicine able to stomp on these? I keep an eye on the latest Ebola epidemic in Africa. They have an experimental vaccine, but the disease is breaking out in a large war zone , so is difficult to treat and isolate.

    As far as bio attacks go, we've seen some semi-incompetent ones (anthrax) and stupidity (designing a mutation of H5N1 that would easily spread between humans). We're in a brave new world here, and it's hard to figure chances, but sooner or later, we won't be lucky.

    CME happened at the same time as that civil war, plus we had a near miss of one in 2012. Not many data points on this, but add EMP to it and it hops into the top 5.

    I can't complain about the top 5 here. So far, nuclear war hasn't happened, and bio has become a much cheaper bang vs. buck for mass destruction. Yellowstone eruptions are hundreds of thousands of years apart, and the Iceland eruptions are thousands of years apart. Foreign invasion of the US? Well, aside from the slow motion illegal invasion…

  30. I fear the continuing slow erosion of our freedoms reaching a point where we look around one day and realize we are no longer free at all. Creeping socialism is a part of the process, but creeping authoritarianism and the worship of the military and the conservative tendency to surrender freedom of thought in exchange for security is another part. I don’t think there will be a civil war, unlike 1860 the military now is monolithic, not infected with the Sectionalism that led commanders like Jefferson Davis to rebel, more and more they serve the Oligarchs. The Feds now stomp all over anybody who remotely threatens civil authority. I pity all the aging white working class heroes who think Trump is their friend and ally, I shudder at the fools the Democrats are putting forward. Orwell was mistaken, you don’t need to drop history into the memory hole, the average American has become a particularly stupid ox and can’t remember anything anyway.

    1. “Conservative tendency to surrender freedom of thought for security”
      Barking up the wrong tree there
      Most conservatives i know value liberty over security.
      Anyone who would give up freedom willingly is not free,
      Theres a difference between neocons and a true conservative.
      A true conservative will choose liberty over security,
      Liberals on the other hand will surrender everything for an ideal, so perhaps those who you are saying they will surrender liberty are really liberals or rinos,
      Just sayin is all,,,

  31. Civil unrest is my concern. We fought over taxation and now ours is the highest?
    The politicians were elected to serve the people correct?

    They have elected themselves to have: Free “Health Insurance” with no limits placed on them or out of pocket cost!!! Once they leave office they still have the benefits!!!!

    Social Security: Which our politicians robbed from our retirements. “Not theirs” It’s separate from ours.

    Next we pay taxes on our Social Security that we paid for?????? Double taxed. Since none of children are dependents and no wife, the money I have in social security is taken by the government. Why I should be able to leave to a family member of my choice not have it taken, from me and used to build some library for a president etc.

    1. Politicians should have the same insurance as us. Their decisions would change if they impacted them also.
    2. Loose the insurance once out of office. What makes them so special?
    3. Politicians should have the same retirements as us. Their decisions would change if they impacted them also.
    4. Let us decide where are social security money goes if we die. Not taken by the government.

    We all need to hold them accountable it isn’t once party it all parties that need to wake up.

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