Saturday, August 27, 2011
The National Hurricane Center has the forecast track such that the tip of North Carolina, the Jersey shore, New York City, Long Island, and southern New England are in the immediate bulls-eye as IRENE will roar up the coastline, the New Jersey shoreline, New York City, and surge through Connecticut into Massachusetts and beyond.
Orange: Forecast Position (Natl. Hurricane Center)
Red: Current (and past) Position (Natl. Hurricane Center)
IRENE Path Map
Hurricane IRENE Timing of worst part of the storm
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, 12 PM – Saturday
Atlantic City, New Jersey, 6 AM – Sunday
New York City, New York 9 AM – Sunday
Waterbury, Hartford, Connecticut, 11 AM – Sunday
Springfield, Worcester, Boston, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, 1 PM – Sunday
Manchester, New Hampshire, 3 PM – Sunday
Portland, Maine, 5 PM – Sunday
(Timing subject to change, and will be changed as new data comes in)
At this moment, the entire east coast of the United States is under the threat of hurricane IRENE. Forecasters aren’t sure of the exact track that IRENE will take given the variability of the various computer models that are being used, however things are becoming clearer, especially the fact that millions will be affected.
The current position and forecast positions of hurricane IRENE are located on the track map above, and will be updated throughout the event (‘CTRL F5’ for latest).
The very warm waters of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Ocean will feed the surging hurricane as it continues to move over the surface of the ocean. Sea surface temperatures are well above that needed to fuel a hurricane, and are currently 85 – 87 degrees F all the way up to the border of North Carolina. Even further up north to Delaware and New Jersey, surface water temperatures offshore are 80 degrees F, again, enough to continue to fuel a hurricane.
This means that IRENE may continue to grow, or at least sustain itself, as it spins up the coast. Any landfall will shut down the process, however, although it will take some considerable time for the winds to diminish to tropical storm levels… so don’t let your guard down.
IRENE is currently blowing 100 mph winds and is expected to churn up the east coast US, possibly a direct hit to coastal North Carolina, Cape Hatteras, then up to the Chesapeake bay and southern New Jersey (way to early to say for sure), while there is also a fairly confident probability that IRENE could slam into New England.
While looking at the current IRENE track map (at the time of the original posting), it occurs to me that a worst-case-scenario could develop, that is, IRENE skirts the shoreline, just offshore (just enough to keep feeding itself), all the way up the east coast and then plows across Long Island and blasts into southern Connecticut. This would potentially affect millions of people along the coast.
The fact is, EVERYONE along the east coast needs to stay tuned, and prepare NOW. Plan for the worst, say, 2 weeks without electricity. Plan to have enough food that doesn’t necessarily require cooking. Get it now, before everyone panics and empties the grocery store shelves 2 days prior…
If you live very near the coast, and know that you are in danger ‘if’ a storm surge (wall of water) should push on shore, make plans now for evacuation lodging inland. Monitor the weather. ‘IF’ you should discover that landfall is a high probability where you live (near the shore), then GET OUT EARLY, like days before.
Update: August 26, early…
Hurricane winds are extending out 80 miles
Tropical storm winds are extending out 290 miles (not symmetrical)
***The Jersey shore is looking especially vulnerable at this time***
New York City may be directly in path. Millions upon millions of people will be affected. Connecticut will be hard hit as well. Major power outages expected. Be prepared to live without power for a substantial time. Prepare for flooding, as well as the obvious – major winds.
Update: August 26, late…
Hurricane IRENE Path – Track
You may find it helpful to read, A Hurricane Preparedness List.
Stay tuned for further updates to this post, Hurricane IRENE Track Map and Impact.
(it may become ‘graphics heavy’)
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