SYSTEMIC RISKS

‘ Just in Time ‘ Food Supply Disaster is Looming | What Will Break It?

just-in-time-technology-disaster

We have little or no warehousing backup in the event of a supply shortage, and everything gets to the shelves just in time…

Our concentrated supermarket / grocery supply system uses JIT ( Just in Time ) technology efficiencies enabled by computers and the Internet.

If there were a sudden unexpected high demand — the JIT delivery systems will fail – leaving grocery / supermarket shelves empty – for longer than you may think…

Here’s why…

Guest article by J.Presley – graduate from Harvard in Economics, and Stanford with an MBA.

(This article was originally published here during 2014. However I am re-posting due to relevance with the unfolding coronavirus pandemic which may result in supply channel disruptions.)

What Will Break The Just in Time System?

Massive Increase of Unsatisfiable Demand

My fears have centered upon a massive increase of unsatisfiable demand. This is a far more likely scenario than an immediate shutdown of food production at the source.

We know how quickly supermarket shelves go completely bare when people fear a blizzard or hurricane. This same thing could happen here in the US but it would be a permanent shortage. Here is how it would happen:

Almost All US Population Has Only A Few Days To A Week Of Food

First understand that almost all the US population buys food for a week or just a few days. They make trips to the market once or twice a week. They have little or no food reserves.

In econ-speak, their ‘preferences’ are to have reserve of one or two weeks.

But this preference is founded upon the public belief in the certainty and integrity of the food supply system. We have no worry that when we go to the market it will be chock full of everything we want.

A Sudden Demand

But imagine that something happened to change those preferences for reserves. Suppose the typical American wanted a two-month or six month reserve?

This could happen when they see food prices escalating beyond reach and they wish to buy reserve food while it is still within their price range.

[Ken adds: What if Americans en mass began to stock up food and supplies due to threat of deadly pandemic and the need for self-isolation or quarantine?]

Imagine what would happen:

JIT (Just in Time) Will Break

The demand for food would quintuple or more within a short time and so shoppers would see empty shelves in the market, further stimulating panic buying, just as in a hurricane or blizzard. This would mark the end of our reliable food supply system.

The stores would be picked clean almost instantly and people’s preferences would change even more toward having a year of reserve food or more to protect themselves from outages.

Given that we have no warehousing and a near-fixed resupply capability, we would be looking at a PERMANENT condition of no food on the shelves. Armed men would meet the resupply trucks when they arrive at the market.

Martial law, price controls, and food rationing with the then current President as Commander, would follow, as well as a suspension of our many rights (to bear arms, prohibitions against search and seizure, property rights). This would be with the blessing of the many hungry people.

We have a precarious situation indeed. And the only way to protect oneself and family is to PREPARE
.

Continue reading: When The Trucks STOP, IT’S OVER…

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Hey Kulafarmer, you up yet? KHON TV 2 is reporting a couple interesting things:

1. Store shelves empty on Oahu.
2. Hawaii doctors need to get “State Approval” before listing any case as possible COVID.

Sounds so very… East German.

Yup,,,
People are starting to get rolling on a panic, will be interesting,

Our entire food distribution network is 100% dependent on shipping containers from elsewhere, wait till all those cigarette smoking stevadors are out sick or decide to stay home. And none of the truck drivers will go to work anyway because they dont want to get sick or are sick,,,

the state here, is a buncha INEPT GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRATS THEY SUCK AND COULDNT TELL IF THE SUN DIDNT COME UP!!

I can hardly wait for this to get rolling,
These baboons have turned our state economy into one ENTIRELY reliant on tourism, its hopping at the moment, but id put money on all of it drying up, but sure, by all means keep voting for these same democraps again and again and again…. people get the government they deserve, especially when they ask for it.

Im going to go out looking tomorrow, will give a sitrep on what things are looking like. Im betting it will take a couple more weeks for things to start getting dicey, the biggest issue is when the ignorant masses wake up, its coming, the EBT army will drain the stores.

Masks on Ebay and Amazon are available only in small quantities and 200-300% price mark up! “Profiteering”. My local Big Box stores are sold out and have purchase limits on the 1 -3 piece packages that are left.
Long term type food supplies sales are through the roof and suppliers are slammed and of course raising prices daily.
Many places are seeing Food, TP and other supplies flying off the shelves at local stores.. I’ve seen some of that in my small area of Illinois and this is all before an official announcement of a PANDEMIC, which is coming!

Yep Phantom I was looking at 3M masks yesterday on Amazon. I have several boxs of 20 so I punched in the number on the box and the ones I bought for about 12 bucks a year or so ago were 36.00 and sold out. Some of the blue hospital ones are showing at 300.00 plus for a box of 10

I just got word from my aunt and uncle (they live in a wealthy gated world at Hilton Head). Get this — my mother contacted them to warn them about coronavirus, and to get prepared.

My uncle has been trying to locate N95 masks online but there is a 2-3 month wait and the shipping charges are $300.

Now this is just totally crazy.

I gave suggestions on where to TRY to find these masks locally…but they’ve got to leave their gated community to try and find them. I also explained what these masks were….the irony here is that my uncle has his MS degree in Chemistry. I guess he’s forgotten all that stuff.

Anyway, this is what I believe a gated community can do to people. The faux-protection is not much different than the faux-protection of our govt. Everyone feels they are safe, secure, and protected.

Until they aren’t.

VERY TRUE and accurate observation MT. Gated communities give folks a completely false sense of security. GATES are only as good as the neighbor that doesn’t climb over them!

I went to Walmart (Austin) this morning to stock up on a few items. The store shelf stockers could not keep the shelves stocked. I noticed that many times that as a store clerk came onto the floor with a box customers would just as the clerk for the entire box of food or whatever was in the stockers box. One clerk said that in a few hours the back room warehouse would be empty. I went there to really get an understanding of what is going on. By the way there were no N95 masks, ibuprofen, Mucinex, sanitary napkins for ladies, or bar soap. I noticed something unusual, people were staring at my side arm, Very unusual.

better start going gray. Time to blend in with the masses

Holy Cow! Already store shelves are empty?

I went to my chain grocery store an hour ago (12.30) and the shelves are fully stocked, including flo-naise and meds for colds, flu, and food stuffs. There were only 3 or 4 people in the whole store–parking lot bare. I see by what I am reading large cities are the ones hit the hardest for the unprepared and fear mongered souls. Soon when supplies go down, the price will skyrocket for those must have things.

Hmmm, maybe I should sell my slightly used N-95 mask for a discount of $50.
i am kidding of course……

Thanks to blogs like MSB we have learned how to have a good food supply.

If you are fortunate enough to be able to afford supplies and find them in stock. Be smart and only buy priority items and also items that you have used before. Buying a food item that is cheap may not pay off if you aren’t able to bring yourself to eat it because of the taste/texture etc. because your not used to. It will go to waste and waste money. By buying items you know will be used, you aren’t wasting money; it will be used eventually even if this blows over.
REMEMBER: Better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it!

Yah, for some reason I bought Spam at Costco….

This reminds me of a few years ago right after a major storm. I went to our local Walmart and they still had not restocked their shelves four days after the storm.

Went to a CVS Pharmacy the other day, they had a $27.00 price tag on Elderberry gummies. Crazy!

Seminole Wind,
Yeah I saw that too. I am going to try and make my own.( I have 4-5 gallons of fresh frozen elderberries in the freezer) If I am successful, I’ll let y’all know how to do it. Seems to me elderberry gummies would be a good way to get elderberry into the littler grandkids.

Or you could try the “Jello Jigglers” recipe with unflavored gelatin and sweetened elderberry juice. Cut into little squares. Just an idea.

Ohhhhh Jello Shots… cool

great idea. We keep unflavored gelatin in stock for other uses…. to get the kids to take it….smart. Elderberry jigglers! I can soak my dried elderberries in some fruit flavor and add to the gelatin. wonderfully creative. thanks

PioW
Maybe someone who knows more can chime in here, but i think the seeds of the elderberry are toxic,,,,,
So maybe dont add whole elderberries to the jello shots!
Extract yes,
Whole berries no!
That info was floating around here recently.

Kula,
guess you missed that discussion. Elderberry seeds can be somewhat toxic. that’s why we don’t eat them like blueberries. Cooking them down for their juice and straining them is the way to go. The cooking neutralizes any of the ‘toxins’, and the cooked juice is okay to consume.
I’ve been doing this for awhile. Cooking down the berries, straining, making juice for syrups and wine. No issues.

Elderberries must be cooked. The syrup and gummies are easy to make. Look up wellness mama online and she has some great recipes.

South Florida seems business as usual for now.
Every idiot is down here on vacation. We are now no longer going to large stores.
Just small quiet ones on off hours. With a low amount of people.

Trucking all the way down here can easily be interrupted. Many larger cities further North are probably where all supplies will be redirected to once the sheep start to panic and clear the shelves. We will be cut off more than likely.

My Count 21 Days or less before SHFT.

Wise man once say, Big Box is Big Trouble.

JIT, what will break it?Probably 3 or 4 more weeks of covid 19 panic and a few more million Americans with normalcy bias finally waking up and pulling their heads out of the sand. I hope they will have enough time left to prepare even a little.God help us all.

Less than 24 hours since Trump addressed the Nation, and now this:

Article (at Gateway Pundit): “HHS Secretary Alex Azar: 3,625 Patients Tested by CDC for Coronavirus So Far – 40 Labs Across US Able to Test for Virus Starting Tomorrow”

Azar told lawmakers CDC test kits for coronavirus will be distributed today and 40 labs across the US will be able to test for the virus starting tomorrow.

93 US labs will be able to test for the virus starting Monday.

They walk among us….

Seems now some in politics are flapping their gums trying to turn the virus response into a political football. No surprise there, I suspect the the political hot air will start emotionally winding people up. The thundering herd is not at the “Oh Sh#t!” stage of awareness, but a few weeks or so away (my speculation/opinion). The thundering herd stages of awareness:
1. What? Pfssst.
2. Yah, whatever. I just order takeout.
3. The store was out of Oreo cookies and milk. You got any?
4. Party cancelled ’cause their sick? With what? No, really?
5. Hey, you sound like sh#t, should see a doctor something.
6. Oh Sh#t! Nobody told me! Gotta go….

Government now saying that no one but medical workers and first responders need to wear protective masks.

Two thoughts…………

1) If the government says you don’t need something…….you probably do need that something.
2) If the government says you don’t need something…….people will fight you to get that something.

Convince me that I’m wrong……………

Dennis,

I totally agree. Also, if masks don’t protect those who are wearing them, why are medical professionals wearing them?

Dennis….2012 John Cusack….”he’s an actor” that’s when you run!

I totally agree….if the gov says you don’t need it, you probably do!

It looks to me that inventories will be very low or sold out in the near future. Delivery trucks will slow down as there will be less to deliver. Once the masses finally realize what is going on there will probably be “Black Friday”stampedes, especially at grocery stores. That, I am afraid will be too late.
I am amazed at how many people who seem level headed, somewhat intelligent and appear to have a thinking ability cannot see the coming storm.
May God have mercy on us all.

Mr. Bluesman, Rom 8:28! He will

Seminole Wind,
Yes He will !
Where is my red MAGA hat . Make America Godly Again !

I am hoping that all of the Newbie Preppers out there are stocking up on dehydrated water? Bless their hearts!

Seriously, we hit the Dollar General for the very-Very-VERY last time today, not too busy and no empty shelves. Got me a whole years supply of beer, all 12 cans! Maybe it might even last until Jesus returns?

The tough part of this is going to be keeping the DW happy, entertained, and well fed.

Stay safe, God Bless, and watch out fur dem Hogs!

Seminole Wind;
You joke about Dehydrated Water…. I’ll have you know I have several cases of the Larger #10 cans of this very important, life saving supply.

Here is the Amazon link…

amazon.com/Future-Essentials-Organic-Dehydrated-Water/dp/B00BQ1VD6W/ref=sr_1_10?dchild=1&keywords=dehydrated+water&qid=1582834484&sr=8-10

NRP, thank the good Lord that you are so Super prepared! Did y’all get the regular stuff, the Tap stuff, or the dehydrated Spring water? I hear that Berkey has a new device to dehydrate water at home, so no more amazon, WOW!

Seminole Wind;
I was able to snag some of the FD-Water D B Cooper is talking about. Amazon had a very limited supply, got 6 cases.
The Deep Glacier Water has a lot of the original water the world was blessed with right after the Earth was created….
GREAT stuff.

NRP

Glad you got it – great FD water infused with Mexican bean methane. It adds so much to the ombence of your formal dinner with new friends.

NRP
Here in Ohio we like the freeze dried glacier water 💧

NRP

I liked the “Creamed Possum in Coon Fat Gravy Garnished with Sweet Potatoes” better.

Mr. Deep South, yummy! Can I git sum cone bread wit dat?

O.K., now you guys are making me hungry.

Arkansas?

Actually found a box of 10 surgical masks at the dollar general of all places. They had gotten knocked to the back of the bottom shelf. Some days it pays to be a shortie. Y’all take care

I’m in NorCal ..area where the first “non contact” patient has been diagnosed. I just got a damn jury summons for 3/23. I will be highly pissed if I have to go sit all day with a bunch of people in an enclosed damn room ! Wondering if I should check the “I’ll be on vacation” box and postpone it for the option to be recalled in 90 days ….

TheGhostofBelleStarr === golly…this is a subject we’ve discussed….(how to avoid these)—
-go in with a shoelace hanging from your mouth, damp fr chewing on it (if questioned “you just need to do this”)
-announce you can “tell from looking at the perp, they are innocent/guilty”
-announce, you are sure it is ok if you are there….the aliens have said so
-maybe you have an allergy to something in the court house?
-maybe you have a seriously special diet which court duty cannot accomodate?
-maybe you are illiterate? maybe you announce you thought this summons was to hand out tax refunds? isn’t that what it states? (or some such)
-go in seriously scratching your nether regions, and announce “I’m sure it is nothing serious. Only one of my cousins died from it”
etc…

let us know how it goes

Oh thanks, I appreciate the serious commentary…

I understand not wanting to put yourself at risk of exposure but serving on a jury is the most direct way we can vote down bad laws by voting not guilty anytime someone is accused of violating liberal laws like gun control, drug laws, tax laws, not baking cakes for whoever, etc. or accused of defending themselves from those enforcing it.

ha ha ha

I was thinking more like a Ghillie suit but your idea will work

Haha I think a Ghillie suit would be hilarious!

Just keep asking them to repeat the question as you are having difficulty hearing them. Seriously though, many of us have been exposed to excessive noise from firearms and probably have some degree of hearing loss. If you haven’t had your hearing tested maybe you should?

I retired at 62 on social security disability for a number of disabilities. One of them was not being able to hear everything being said in my workplace.

Picture of Ol Sparky…..ask Regular or extra crispy!

slather on the vicks vaporub, hold crumpled tissues in your hand and wear the surgical mask
when asked you can tell them you have a sore throat/congestion and feel like you’re coming down with something…JK or not

otherwise- if you have any medical conditions that would not tolerate prolonged sitting w/o bathroom break- ask your doc for a letter. (even if you’re on a medication like a water pill for BP- that might cause you to need breaks…) you can also do your civic duty not during a pandemic

Really I would check the vacation box and postpone it. By the time 90 days follows March 23rd we should know how bad it is here in the US. Plus, you could be on a stay-cation in your own home by then! I would not risk hanging with a crowd.

Just tell them you believe in the death penalty. If that doesn’t get you off the list tell them God will take vengeance on them. That always works.

TheGhostofBelleStarr,

Don’t worry–ya’ll will be on lock down in the next 24-48 hours. A whistleblower has filed a complaint that Health and Human Services sent federal employees into quarantine areas without personal protective gear or appropriate training. One site mentioned was Travis Air Force Base in Solano County. The employees (likely exposed to the virus) stayed in hotels, ate at restaurants and traveled via public transit and commercial airplane.

It can be no coincidence that the first community transmission case of coronavirus is from Solano County. Note that the woman checked herself into the hospital on Feb. 19. Because she did not fit the CDC’s strict criteria for testing (she had no recent travel history to China or close contact with a confirmed case), so they did not test for days, despite the fact that the doctors suspected coronavirus from the very start.

Postpone it for the 90 days. Who knows, in that time they may close the courts due to the virus. Either way it will buy you a little more time.

Thanks for the advise, I will check the vacation box and delay it 90 days.

This is in reply to today’s article on Just in Time Ordering and also yesterday’s question about empty shelves.

I had a doctor’s appointment in Worland today. It is a big town (5,000+ which is more than quadruple the size of the county seat of our county.) So I checked out the food stores. There are (WERE) two — an IGA and a Western Family. But the IGA was closed (supposedly at the end of 2019). The parking lot at Blair’s was full and the store was full of customers and product. I didn’t see any empty shelves, people wearing masks, or people loading their carts with beans and rice. It looked like most people were just buying tonight’s dinner. The store looked real nice, especially the produce and deli sections. The prices looked normal. In fact, they had Hormel Chili for $.99 so I bought some and also a few things you can’t get in our small town. I was already pretty will stocked up, but as long as I was out….. I wouldn’t have left home if I hadn’t had to go to the doctor.

All Glory To God!!! Our nitwit son called today.He wanted to know if this
poop storm is serious and should he hustle over to Sams Club and pick
up a “few things”.

Well I guess it’s a start in the right direction. Heavy on the nitwit.

Normlchuck, please have your son call my kids, they probably won’t hear the phone ring tho as their heads are still stuck in the sand.😉

Yep–oldest daughter finally made a trip to Sam’s and stocked up. Only been months trying to get her to go. Even her DH said she should go. God Is Good !!

When JIT was the new ‘in thing, our automotive factory was into it big time.
It worked well for awhile. Then there was the upped orders for production. Oops, not enough material to meet the customers demand. Then came the constant air shipments, from Japan, of needed materials, that cost the company big bucks.
Since then, we’ve been more material in that we don’t have warehouse space for.
So when this hits hard, and businesses start losing money and customers, maybe the smart companies may reconsider the JIT idea.

been bringing in more materials.

Stopped at our local small business healthfood store tonight.
Walmart has a shortage of Elderberry products? Come here.
Elderberry:
gummies w/Echinacea
Capsules
Premixed Powder
Syrups
And a good supply.
No, just berries, tho. I was disappointed.
At Wally….four bottles of gummies, made, who knows where.

JS/AC
And the store owner is going to look up on ordering some sweet gum products. He was very interested in the given info.

just for giggles I went on walmart and looked up face masks. They came up with what looked like a n95 mask. 8 masks for $98.88,—free shipping!

I just went on some of the bulk food sites, emergency essentials, Augason farms, mountain house- they are all out of food and what is there is 6-8 week delivery. Mountain house suspended their food orders so they could find out what was left. I thank the Lord I listened and prepared. Except masks, i need more masks

my fav is Emergency Essentials at BePrepared dot com.

Big banner at top of web site today reads :

DUE TO INCREASED DEMAND, WE ARE EXPERIENCING 6-8 WEEK SHIPPING AND PRODUCTION DELAYS

never seen that on their site before.

We got ours about 3 weeks back. Got out order in just under the wire.

C&C had the beans NRP has recommend to the group. They were listed in the recent sell, along with pork belly, an a few other items. OK, will pick these up to add to our supplies. Not one item on my list was in the store, the bean, pasta, was either gone or short supplies. Canned fruit on sale it was gone, so I took the other fruit not on sale since I was already there. Checked out the sugar isle, supplies were there but low, flours were still good on the shelves. Chocolate chips, well the boxes were all gone except for a few packages, wanted them for the future cookies will be making at home.
The frozen vegetable section was wiped out with the exception of one white corn and one mixed vegetable package. Cold vegetable section was lower than I have ever seen, did not make it in to the milk section.

Wow Antique Collector

Must be your location and the poor infected woman in the news. Was in my nearest C&C today and all was normal. Only shortage I noticed was the big bags of cornmeal. Only two left and I picked up one for friends.

Anony Mee
There are a lot restaurants in this area, but WOW. Even with them picking up on Mondays for the week ahead there are still items on the shelving. Should have pre-ordered on what I wanted, even this was a oh–crap moment for me. The parking lot had more vehicles in it than normal an lucked out getting a spot next to the building.

AC,
Which beans were those? He has recommended so many good ones. I also would like to get another bag of cornmeal. Guess I’m going to C&C in the am😊.
PEACE
MadFab

Mad Fab
Maya coba,something close to that name. I have seen them in the flour mill but this was the first time being listed at C&C. Planned on using the pork belly in this bean for a dinner–when & IF it every become a cooler spring.
80’s is not normal for this area, but since we are in the minimum nothing is normal any longer.

I’m gonna ask a question that may or may not get people’s panties in a bunch. I’m gonna go on the assumption that everyone that participated on this website knows thIngs could go sideways. Just know Last year’s flue cost 20k lives in the USA alone.

Umm, what’s the question? I am game for controversial topics.

food, we are waiting.

Food for Thought;
In order to get my panties in a twist…
ASK the question.
PS;
please get your facts right…. 60+ thousand, not 20K

Sorry, I didn’t realize the number was greater. My question is, does anyone believe that the media is blowing the whole thing out of per portion to affect the economy and put the current president at a disadvantage come election time?

I’m a numbers person, so I’ve taken a look:

According to the CDC website, over the past decade, flu infection rates in the USA (not global) ranged from 9.3 – 45 million people per year. Hospitalizations from 140,000-810,000 per year, and deaths from 12,000 – 61,000 per year. Hospitalizations average 1.5% of the infected, and deaths about 1/10th of 1 % (about .0013).

These numbers reflect our having prompt, modern medical care and medications available, and that many of us have developed antibodies (and/or gotten flu shots) to help curb the effects of the flu each year. None of us have antibodies for this virus yet… no natural immunity right now.

Virologists’ projections disagree on how much of the world population will be infected. I’ve seen numbers that range from 1/3 – 2/3 of total population. And, the current average death rate seems to be about 2%.

If we look at the same numbers of people being infected with coronavirus as the past decade average numbers of “regular” flu, and use the 2% death rate, the USA will have 186,000 – 900,000 deaths – just the USA. And I can’t imagine how many people will pull through, but only with hospital care… likely millions. Our system is not built to take on that many extra patients on top of the number of people needing hospital care every day for everything from heart attacks and strokes to car accidents and child birth. So, we really need to keep the virus from getting a good foothold here.

If we look at the entire world (population 7.8 billion), here are some numbers (using the same 2% death rate):
10% infection = 15.6 million deaths
25% infection = 39 million deaths
33% infection = 51.4 million deaths
50% infection = 78 million deaths

So, I see the coronavirus as a risk no matter which scenario takes place. It’s just a matter of degree.

Well, and with a “normal flu” you dont get a huge number of re infections,,,,that there could be the game changer.

Kula

Dr, Segal (sp?) said on FOX yesterday that the person with what appeared to be a re-infection, was probably just the usual ebb and tide of viral type illnesses. Your body fights the decease up and down over a period of time so fever and other symptoms may not present all the time.

When I had the Hong Kong flu in 1970 that is what happened to me. The flu came back. Of course I was 17 and had to go out on Friday night after being very sick and cooped up since the past Sunday. It was cold out and mini skirts were the thing. Oh well when we were young we were invincible huh.

Lots of pressures on the food supply chain, not just pandemic fears. The guv’s advice to prepare for a disruption that could last weeks is unprecedented. On top of that we’ve got last year’s poor harvests and processing closures.

Most likely this year’s harvests will also be poor, but maybe not as bad. According to Peak Prosperity, China is already concerned about getting grain planted on time in the hardest hit areas. Who farms if the farmer is sick?

Then there’s the folks who are anticipating a political apocalypse, some if Trump’s re-elected, some if he’s not, and all are stocking up for their expected war’s disruptions.

Also, poor 2019 harvests elsewhere, African Swine Fever, and the return of the locust swarms to parts of Africa, have all increased global demand for available and future commodities.

It’s going to be a bumpy ride, no matter what.

Keep Calm and Prep On

Anony Mee,

You have raised an important issue. To add to your concern, I wonder how many ingredients in farm chemicals are manufactured in China. What happens if U.S. farmers can’t get access to pesticides and fertilizers because key ingredients are manufactured in China?

we small time gardeners might should get some for this spring planting.

just in case.

might want to go ahead and get your seeds while you’re at the local co-op.

Iceagefarmer.com has great videos on crops and crop failures around the world. Worth watching. He also follows ag insurance numbers which are telling.

DJ5280 yes IAF does have some serious information about food. Best of all he backs his reports up with internet searchable links for the actual USDA and such reports.

His quote from the President Xi of China about the Corona virus situation “The Farmers must not miss the planting window, they hold the rice bowl of China in their hands” speaks loudly to me.

His bottom line about this is food is a weapon of control by the Globalists-Deep State and We the People need to disarm them by getting prepared for their “hunger-fear pain” and grow our own food supplies. He also has great data about the Maunder Minimum.

As some preppers are learning from the corona virus stress that FLIR-guns and bullets don’t stop a virus, they may soon discover that FLIR-guns and bullets doesn’t feed their families either. Spend your time and money wisely.

Got food? Got seeds? Got experience growing food? The exam is near.

Im thinking of starting a few stealth gardens waaaaaaay out back on the property. Root crops, etc. JIC…….I think it will be a good experience. Underplanting trees, they will look like weeds. May think about (modified) permaculture for the near future in some areas. And this year I’m getting serious about seed-saving. I’ve done some, but want to really do more for the foods we eat, especially as crops adapt to the area where we live.

Get a few good seed-saving books, like “Seed to Seed,” or “The Complete Guide to Saving Seed.”

DJ5280 I suspect you’ve been reading the postings on Lambs Quarter and Kudzu?

Both excellent and hard to kill off high protein greens. This year I am letting those darn Lambs Quarters grow for my spinach crop. Even my lawn mover didn’t faze them much…

Jerusalem Artichoke (sun choke)is also excellent for a starch like potato(ish).

Clusters instead of neat rows is a form of camouflage. As you know nature hates straight lines. Mixed plantings like bush beans (no trellis to give it away) with garlic, potatoes (and or Sweet Potatoes, you know you can EAT sweet Potato leaves like greens, tasty), cabbage and horseradish both keeps away bugs and confuses the non-gardener. Would look like a lumpy bit of bushes. Think about an oval that you can reach to the center to weed and harvest.

Winter squash and beans grow well together. The 3 sisters uses them and corn.

As much as I love Corn it’s way to easy to ID by even Gimmie Dat’s from TV I suppose. Maybe next year or the “Proper Garden”?

Need to clear away grasses and brush for a garden easy? Carpet. Roughly chop down high stuff, lay carpet there before first frost, early spring. The plants will kill themselves “trying” to grow to the sun. In about 3-5 weeks you can remove carpet and plant. Very little left for you to weed then.

Critters and bugs the main curse of the gardener. I’m seriously thinking about a dog despite my 94 year olds dislike of them. Suggestions as to a good ratter type to keep voles and other critters honest? Runner Ducks and chickens (in a chicken tractor) are really good for bug control as long as you keep them away from Baby Plants and Salad Greens.

Stealth gardening. Plantings to hide from non-gardeners. How many folks would know a sweet potato vine as something “gardening” unless in neat garden plots?

BTW keeping a couple of sweet potatoes and regular potato’s around means you can chit them and grow them! Don’t eat your seed corn friends.

Anony Mee

Just read where the desert locust have arrived in the edge of China. Now that will cause a food shortage of biblical proportions!

Just read where they will be releasing flocks of Chinese ducks to eat the locusts. I hope they do well. It could be a win win kind of thing. Locusts down and lots of ducks to eat afterwards.

Africa/Somali is far from China. They would have to cross Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, and India. Have heard they were in Africa.

Guess what? I believe they already are in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, and India, and are on the edge of China.

Had not heard about them in China. wow

Went back to Home Depot for ammonia yesterday, They had 8 N-95 masks left in the store. Normally they are stocked in the paint department. There were none there but a sign saying they still had some in the drywall section.

Wife did one last run to Wallyworld. People commented on her mask and she told them she had recently had chemo and was concerned about her immune system. One lady asked her where she got the mask. Wallyworld was well stocked with lots of disinfection type supplies prominently displayed, Wipes, paper towels, bleach, vinegar but zilch ammonia. As a quick aside for those who don’t already know, never mix ammonia and bleach.

As I type the market has been open for about an hour an is already down another 850 points. Gold should be going up and is instead way down also. Go figure.

aack, look at silver too!

I know! Gold is now down about $100 an ounce since the beginning of the week.

Sadly I am happy that the initial loss on the market seems to be recovering somewhat. Still down 500 but a lot better than 1000.

Don’t worry, Gold and silver were bound to take a dip after the surge upward. Just remember, they are a store of value, and I’m pretty positive they will be headed back up. Gold is the money of Kings, silver the money of gentlemen, and in the future they will be in demand.

Get this: HAD to have my annual physical or doc would NOT renew my one prescription (thyroid) I take. All but two doctors at our satellite clinic – have ‘quit.’ No replacements in (yet. Soon? Ever?). So many sick people in there too at 8 am. At least they were still passing out available masks. Took my own (and gloves). Was really pushing pneumonia vaccines to everyone. I asked the receptionist, nurse, and my doctor about coronavirus and took the attitude of “Oh, its JUST A FLU, right?” They were not amused…stated it is very serious. Asked me about being out of the area or country first thing. Oh, and I politely declined all the vx they were offering today. Egads. One other note: Two of my kids are first responders, fire and medic. This is being down-played by their departments and officials are spouting the CDC koolaid its just flu and NO PANDEMIC. I’m sending them info from more trusted sources, my DIL is very concerned they are being lied to about this (duh, yeah).

Or they are seriously not up to date on the current info? I doubt that.

DJ,
There is a gag order in NYS for 1st responders… The NYSDOH has said that they “can’t” report anything because of HIPPA, which is bullsnard.. They can report the numbers, they have been told not to.

Jabba, I think you are absolutely correct.

I have asthma and had my annual checkup a few weeks ago with my allergist/pulmonologist. I actually ASKED him if he thought I should get the pneumonia vaccine since I’ve never had the illness or the vaccine and he said, “I don’t think so, not yet.” This is an outstanding doctor in his field and I’ve been a patient of his for over 20+ years, so I trust him with my life. I was surprised. He did give me larger scripts for Methylprednisolone (corticosteroid), Doxycycline (for secondary bacterial infections that often piggyback viral infections), Albuterol (rescue) and Pulmicort (another corticosteroid inhaler) JUST IN CASE, though. And I’ve also had the flu vaccine, of course. But he assured me…this coronavirus IS NOT THE FLU. He has friends/colleagues in the Philippines (he’s Filipino) who have actually been to the Level 4 lab in Wuhan and he personally went to Home Depot for masks for his entire family. He suggested many things to me that indicated he was very concerned, like suggesting I get a pulse oximeter and start getting comfortable with using a nebulizer. He’s the calmest doctor I know, so this came as a bit of a surprise.

Ellie

I too have asthma and I don’t want to set off anyone who doesn’t believe in vaccinations so hold the hate mail. :)

I have had two pneumonia vaccinations in the last ten years with no ill effects. I haven’t had pneumonia during those ten years. I have had pneumonia numerous times and can tell you that you really don’t want it! For those who don’t know the combination of asthma and pneumonia is very very serious even in normal times. Asthma can predispose you to lung infections that someone without it doesn’t normally get.

Do your research, pray, and talk with your doctor about a vaccination as it may save your life. You have to be off the costeroideroid for some time before you take the shot and it takes at least two weeks if not more for any immunity to develop. If you get one be sure to get one that covers the most organisms, I think 23 is the standard now, again talk to your Doctor.

YMMV and good luck.

DEEP SOUTH:

Thank you for your words of wisdom. I’ll contact him again on Monday and open up the discussion again. I’m a huge proponent of vaccination and so if it’s something that can offer me more protection in these uncertain times, I’m all for it.

Stay blessed!

Pneumonia vaccines (there are two on market->pneumovax 23 and other is prevnar 13) recommended to help prevent against streptoccocus pneumoniae, a bacteria that can cause pneumonia (remember there are a ton of other bacteria/viruses/fungus that can cause pneumonia too)

Now there’s been a recent move to stop giving adults the Prevnar 13 (to give this vaccine was a recommendation that came out in ?2014 -so very shortlived recommendation/guideline-> to give prevnar 13 first and then pneumovax 23 one year later- we have been giving children prevnar 13 for years as part of childhood recommended immunizations )

So if you are going to get one- it would probably be pneumovax 23 (and if you’re younger than 65- then you may need booster in future) Still would recommend the pneumovax 23 unless you have had some sort of reaction to vaccines or history of guillane barre.

My DH just got back home from first responder shift and his dept has said nothing to them! They and the local law enforcement have been making their own assessments. So far in 2 days, no calls for “ill patient” or difficulty breathing. We all expect it to come.

And I forgot to say that we were doing our birthday shopping for family with birthdays coming up soon, and there was no one at the outdoor mall in the most exclusive area of our region yesterday. Parking garage – empty. I saw one person walking. This was 11 am. Restaurants almost empty. It creeped me out. And the toy store we were looking for had closed, permanently. Was empty and locked. We left.

On CNN recent post that cvs and Walgreens are concerned about possible shortages of hand sanitizer …yup mainstream panic will shortly ensue
(BYW Can’t order purell from some amazon sites…Unavailable at least dollar tree still had stash earlier today )

RE: PURELL:

Go to Office Depot/Office Max/Staples! Just purchased several 33.8oz bottles there yesterday, 2/27 (Office Depot) along with some new Purell Healthy Soap Hand Wash (since we’re using so much of it) and Purell Wipes in 10 and 20 packs.

For masks, go to PPG Paints/Sherwin Williams.

RE: KENTUCKY, THIS JUST IN…

Just spoke to doctor’s office regarding a backup supply of a medication I take, and was informed that at approximately 11:30AM EST today, their office was notified of a case at Baptist Hospital East (local hospital here in Louisville). Now, whether or not it was ‘tentatively’ confirmed or the labwork was actually sent away to Atlanta for actual confirmation, I don’t know. But the local news affiliates have not covered it yet (at noon) and I just spoke to a contact at one of the local stations and they had not heard as of 3:30, but are in the process (now) of confirming. The likelihood of them getting that, though, is slim to none, I’m afraid. This hits VERY close to home for us. In fact, was planning to head over to Whole Foods for one last run (not far from there), but am wondering if I should. Don’t want to overreact. My husband’s running to Lowe’s after work to order an upright freezer for overflow, but I’m wondering if we’re too late now.

Ellie;
“My husband’s running to Lowe’s after work to order an upright freezer for overflow, but I’m wondering if we’re too late now.”

No No No, it is never to late to prepare even more. Until a full on lockdown hits.
We all have our thoughts about this current “Problem” but that does never mean we stop preparing.
MAKE darn sure you and DH take precautions aka wash hands a LOT and so on….. Just did a run on the bank at Sam’s Club.

NRP:

That’s exactly what my husband said! Thanks for your encouragement. So, question for you: safer to go to grocery one last time 30 min before close (Whole Foods) or the minute they open tomorrow? Have a lot of meat and fresh produce to buy!

Ellie;
Ok, here is my 2¢ worth.
I don’t like being around people at normal times.
So the question is, when do they open on Sunday?
Are most people still in Church at that time?
Are people there morning or late evening people?
How cold is it there? People usually will wait till “It warms up some” before going out….
Only you know the “flow” of the stores and people in your area, so honestly it’s 1000% your call.
PS: please remember all those “stores” you put up in the Deep Pantry, even if not used right now, they are like a Insurance Policy.

NRP:

Thank you for that!

I also don’t like to be around too many people (especially when shopping) – ha!
Sunday USED to be our day. We’d go after church and get all the shopping done for the week ahead. But then Amazon bought Whole Foods and it turned into a glorified Walmart overnight with people coming out of the woodwork at all times of the day/night. No more leisurely strolls anymore! We usually go about 45 min before close now or super early, but husband thinks end of day may be bad now because of all the traffic — as if the germs won’t be lingering as much if they have 8 hours untouched! Thinking about hitting WF late Sunday or early Monday (fridge should be delivered Tueday), buying as much as I can to fill fridge and freezer along with some shelf-stable milk and a few canned goods, and just hunkering down. Asthma’s been flaring from the cold I just got over and I hate exposing myself (and my poor lung tissue right now from all the corticosteroids). The hospital I mentioned above is only about 15 miles from us, so we’re getting a tad nervous now. Still have to order my pulse oximeter; just finally ordered our Big Berkey. So much to do, so little time! Thanks so much for your advice and God bless!

Well now that is interesting. Will watch my local news an see if they report it. We are only 7 miles from the border of KY. Louisville is approximately 2:45 away. Fun Fun

MRS. U:

Howdy, (sort of) neighbor! Apparently, the person traveled to Italy and is very sick with symptoms. They’ve been quarantined and the official blood work will be back from Atlanta on Sunday. Based on symptoms, travel and (possibly) imaging, it would seem they’re treating the person as though they’re positive. We shall see.

Went to Walmart early this morning about 6:30, up here in Idaho. I think the rush is starting here. I asked about masks, and the gal just laughed and said they’ve been out for 3 weeks, and don’t expect any soon. The shelves still had a fair amount of food, but they were messed up, and a few empty spots were showing. By the time I left, it was getting real busy. I don’t know, probably just a busy Friday before the weekend. We’ll see.

Probably just busy because the end of the month. The give-me-that’s got their checks and cards reloaded.

Simple
A shortage of diesel fuel!
Nothing will cause a shortage quicker!!