World Population Graph

World Population Growth and Natural Balance

World Human Population Graph

World population in 2019 is right around 7.7 billion as of this writing.

Current population growth rate is about 83 million per year.

100 years ago, world population was just 1.6 billion.

100 years before that, 1 billion.

2,000 years ago, 200 million.

2000 BC, 27 million.

It took all of human history until around the year 1800 for world population to reach one billion.

The second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930).

The third billion in less than 30 years (1959).

The fourth billion in 15 years (1974).

The fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).

The sixth billion in 12 years (1999).

The seventh billion in 12 years (2011).

And like I said, today we’re at 7.7 billion (2019).

In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.

The world population graph shown above might trigger a sense of alarm. Maybe it should.

Human Population Explosion

Why or how has human population grown in such a ‘hockey stick’ upright curve – seemingly straight up when viewing from a wide timeline?

In my estimation there are a number of reasons.

But first, fathom this:

The Exponential function

While world population growth may not be exactly along the exponential function, it does seem to resemble it.

Here’s a great example of how it works. I first read this years ago from an article on PeakProsperity.com and I will summarize it for you:

You’re sitting up in the upper ‘nose bleed’ section of a sports stadium. Imagine that the stadium is ‘water tight’.

A single drop of water lands on the field at 1PM. If one minute later 2 drops of water land on the field, and then one minute after that 4 drops, and so on (doubles every subsequent minute), how long until the stadium completely fills with water?

Probably a very long time, right? And you would have plenty of time to get out as you notice the water slowly rising, right?

The first drop of water lands right in the middle of the field at 1 PM. You only have until 1:49 PM before you must swim or drown!

It apparently would take less than 50 minutes to fill the entire stadium.

But here’s where it gets more interesting…
At what time do you think the stadium is still 93% empty?

Answer: At 1:45 PM the stadium is still 93% empty. You only have 4 more minutes to get out!

source: Crash Course Chapter 4: Compounding is the Problem

That’s the thing with exponential growth. It all looks fairly benign until suddenly, it’s not!

Okay, I’m not suggesting that world population growth is going to fill the planet in ‘4 minutes’ as in the analogy above.

I do believe that population growth will become self limiting to the extent that resources and technology allow.

We may be within that approximate time right now. Current population growth rate projections suggest that growth will remain approximately 12 years per billion. After 2023 the expectation is growth will slow down to 14 years per billion. Then 18 years.

source (Wikipdeia ‘Population Growth’)

How and Why So Many People in the World?

In my estimation, primary factors include modern energy (oil), the industrial revolution growth period, mass agriculture, and modern healthcare and medicine.

Massive Agriculture

Modern mass agriculture has enabled enormous amounts of food production to feed the population.

Today in the United States, fewer than 1 percent claim farming as an occupation and only 2 percent of Americans live on a farm.

source: The Dwindling Percentage Of American Family Farms

Of the 1% of farmer occupations, only 9% (of the 1%) represent 75% of ALL FARM REVENUE in the United States. This illustrates how few farms provide the majority of production here in the U.S.

Long gone are the days of many family farms dotted across the countryside. Today, “all our eggs are in one basket” so to speak.

Additionally, today we can acquire food from all over the world.

Distribution Channels

We’ve gone from horse and wagons to railroads, container ships, trucks, and airplanes.

Cheap energy and technology have enabled vast distribution channels.

There is a constant supply of goods flowing through numerous supply channels across the land, sea, and air. Spanning the globe.

This enables millions upon millions of people to live in highly densely populated regions.

When the Trucks Stop, it’s Over

The regions themselves cannot support themselves. However distribution channels flow into these populous regions like blood flowing through veins.

Read more: Cities are Artificial

Los Angeles region

Modern Medicine

The discovery of antibiotics has been a huge factor in the field of medicine and people living longer. It wasn’t until the 1940’s when Penicillin went into mass production.

Think about it. It wasn’t that long ago when an ordinary cut could potentially infect and kill you.

Modern hospitals, healthcare and medicine have greatly increased the life expectancy of humans and have aided in the growth of human population.

The Survival Medicine Handbook

Energy

There’s no way any of this could have happened without the mass availability of energy. Oil is today’s primary source. Petroleum is the basis for so many of our products.

Electricity is also the lifeblood of our modern existence. I shouldn’t have to explain the multitude of ways that our modern life is hinged with electricity.

2 Weeks Without Electricity

The Natural Balance of Human Population

I wonder what would be the natural balance of human population without today’s modern inventions, technologies, and global distribution?

I don’t know the answer because there are so many variables beyond what I’ve mentioned.

However I do ask the question to emphasize that a majority of today’s population would not exist without external systems that keep us alive.

One guess at a number might be somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 billion globally.

Back in the 1800’s before most of today’s modern innovation and technology, the human population was in the 1 billion range. Many or most people were fairly self sufficient. There were cities of course but it was before the major population spike and before today’s mega cities…

Systemic Risk & Preparedness

In conclusion, I’m not posting this as a notion of ‘peak population’.

Rather I am attempting to use the human population explosion to suggest that there are external systems that must continue to function to keep the 7+ billion people alive.

There are inherent risks within the global population system. There are actions that we can take to lessen our dependence on those systems.

Doing what we can towards a bit of self sufficiency is good preparedness. Planning for disruption is also good preparedness.

Systems do break. It’s best to be prepared.

Continue reading: If the Lights Went Out in America

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62 Comments

  1. I wish natural selection would cull the herd,
    Too many doo gooders feeding those who cant feed themselves has created the bulk of the imbalance

  2. Before electricity there were less than a billion. I think that was the maximum that could be sustained without electricity.

    Before Europeans came to the Americas, there were only about 1.25 million in what is now the continental United States. By 1870 it was about 39 million. Again, probably the max without electricity.

    Now they say if our electric grid goes down, 90% would die.

    I think that is about right.

  3. Because 50% of the children aren’t dying in infancy, because the majority of the survivors don’t die before they have children, the world has experienced a population explosion that would not have been possible in the past.

    And unprecedented prosperity, pretty much world-wide. People who 100 years ago were using sticks to dig termites out of a mound for protein now mourn that they’re not rich enough to get steak. People whose ancestors struggled to get one meal a day now “need” a new cell phone and a large TV. The vast majority of the population, worldwide, has a roof over their heads and clothes to wear, which simply was not the case for their ancestors.

    Earlier generations usually had at least one “natural” disaster per generation. Floods, a hard winter, an epidemic. Something to indicate just how fragile the system is (and how dangerous cities are!). Stories to be passed down to their children about how they survived “the great flood” or “the plague.” This generation hasn’t had that.

    I’m not talking about wars, or a dam breaking, or any other disaster that affects primarily a small percentage of the population. I’m talking about disasters that affect the majority of the people in the “known” world for any one geographic location.

    People who have never experienced a systemic shock have no idea how bad it could get. It’s simply not part of their world-view, and if confronted by the possibility they’re likely to deny it completely.

    Until it happens. Then they’ll have something to tell their grandchildren about, if they survive.

    1. Very good points!

      Sometimes I try to imagine the hardships of how it was. Of course the further back in time you go, the more primitive and the more hardships.

      It’s inconceivable today by the ‘modern generation’.

      1. My mother did a great deal of genealogical research in the original Italian records. There were many families that had 12 or more children and only 1 survived to adulthood. Families that had only 2 and both died. Then there were families that had 15 and all survived to have their own families. It balanced out, in general.

        The average appears to be 2 – 4 children per family surviving to adulthood. But with accident, disease and natural disasters, another of those 4 didn’t survive to have children of their own. Many of the survivors married three or four times, only to die at age 102 in a great grandchild’s home.

        The population remained relatively steady. Places where it didn’t are no longer around.

  4. Another example of exponential growth is to take a checker board. On the first square put one grain of rice. On the second square put two. On the third put four. How many grains of rice will you have on the last square?

    Stay frosty.

    1. WOW! That’s another interesting mind-blowing exercise.

      I couldn’t help but open up Excel and play with those numbers… 64 squares, starting from 1, doubling each time:

      Answer:
      9,223,372,036,854,780,000

      9.2 Quintillion!

      1. The Rice And Chessboard Story

        Learning How Doubling Makes Numbers Grow

        By Michael Hartley

        There’s a famous legend about the origin of chess that goes like this. When the inventor of the game showed it to the emperor of India, the emperor was so impressed by the new game, that he said to the man

        “Name your reward!”

        The man responded,

        “Oh emperor, my wishes are simple. I only wish for this. Give me one grain of rice for the first square of the chessboard, two grains for the next square, four for the next, eight for the next and so on for all 64 squares, with each square having double the number of grains as the square before.”

        The emperor agreed, amazed that the man had asked for such a small reward – or so he thought. After a week, his treasurer came back and informed him that the reward would add up to an astronomical sum, far greater than all the rice that could conceivably be produced in many many centuries!

      2. Now, apply that to “the population”. If a pair of humanoids created five offspring and each of them created five more, what would be result in five generations? That would be 3,125 humanoids. If there were 2/3 of this country going that route, assuming a population of 300 million, there would be 62,410,000,000 more occupants on this chunk of dirt on this rock. Where would the food come from? Where would the water come from? How big do you think that septic tank would have to be? How long would the trees last? The Chinese weren’t so ‘wrong’. One kid each pair of humanoids. That will still destroy this planet soon enough.

        The aquifers in this country are expected to be unusable in 50 years. The water usage is 24% less than the replenishment. The average depth to get to the Edwards Aquifer, in Texas, is 770 ft. It was 84 ft in the 70’s.

        The US, presently, imports $147B in foods, and exports $133B.

        I think we should look at “peak population”. At least the possibilities that exist. That and coming up with a way to implant common sense into video games. (Did ya catch that?) Probably the only way to get the current generation to smell the roses.

        OBTW……I once tried to get my boss to pay me one penny on the first day of the month, two pennies the second, etc.,etc. He didn’t go for it. Took him a few days to figure it out.

          1. Exactly, DaisyK. And throw in: The more that’s irrigated, the more that evaporates, and the moisture gets blow somewhere else, not to the area it came from.

        1. When I go to Wal Mart one can’t help but notice the young Hispanic women with at least 4 children and the possibility of more.

          Go to the World population Clock it shows real time deaths, births and the country. By 2050 the US will mostly some shade of brown.

          The television advertising community is pushing white black relationships and marriages to the point where no one in an ad cannot have a party, wedding etc. without a person of color included.

          So it is what it is and our grandchildren will be in a different world for sure.

          I have written this before. While sitting in a dentist office waiting for Mr.’s daughter to be finished with dental work HE WAS PAYING FOR, a Hispanic woman was there with 8, yes 8 children getting FREE dental check ups. Ages apprx 15 to under two. Multiply that. Then multiply the border. Mind boggling.

      3. Oh mom and dad – just pay me a penny on the first day of the month for my allowance.

        But double it each day till the end of the month.

        hahahahaha mom and dad !!! :)

      4. I heard a similar story when I was younger, but it applies to wages. A man goes to an employer and says don’t pay me minimum wage. Pay me one penny an hour but double the wages every week and within a month the man would be very wealthy.

  5. Very interesting, thanks Ken!

    If the stadium is completely full at 1:49 when would the stadium be only half-full? At 1:48.
    When it’s half-full, though, most folks would think they still had breathing room.

    Population growth parallels the availability and use of fossil fuels to support agriculture. Farm production exploded in leaps: farms were mechanized thus farmers could manage much more acreage; pesticides significantly decreased crop losses while fertilizers significantly increased yield; domestic and international ag transport became faster and cheaper; and monoculture increased crop handling efficiencies.

    Most of this timeline from petroleumhistory.ca.
    500 BC – First oil well dug (Mesopotamia)
    500 BC – Natural gas seeps used for fuel (China)
    1803 – First offshore oil wells (Caspian Sea)
    1806-1808 – First internal combustion engine and automobile (France)
    1861 – First recorded oil shipment (between Pennsylvania and London)
    1870 – Natural gas field discovery (Texas and Louisiana)
    1886 – First modern ocean oil tanker
    1908 – Oil discovered in Iran
    1909 – Ammonia for fertilizer synthesized (Germany)
    1910 – Oil discovered in Mexico
    1913 – Enhanced production of gasoline from crude oil (USA)
    1915 – Natural gas from fractured shale (Kentucky)
    1917 – Commercial production of LNG begins
    1937 – Dieselization of railroad engines begins
    1948 – Oil discovered in Ghanwar, Saudi Arabia (largest field in the world)
    1960 – OPEC founded
    1997 – Qatar builds first large natural gas exporting facility

    In some countries, arable land is maxed out, or there is insufficient fresh water to support continued agricultural growth. They rely on imports to survive. Agriculture is a strong industry but subject to many outside influences – rainfall and weather, evolving and introduced pests, costs/availability of fertilizer and fuel, tariffs and taxes, politics, and consumer demand. Scientific research is working in most of these areas, and highly mechanized vertical cropping is emerging to augment fields. Looks like population growth is sustainable for at least another minute.

    However, if Dr. Zharkova’s predictions bear out, the coming dark, cold years of 2028-2032 may change that.

  6. Ken said…………”Rather I am attempting to use the human population explosion to suggest that there are external systems that must continue to function to keep the 7+ billion people alive.”

    How very true. Those “systems” are many, intertwined, complex, and interdependent. Who controls the on/off switch? (hint: it ain’t us)

    I have no doubts that, when those that do hold the switch think a reset is necessary,……….. poof! ………….populations are back to 1900’s levels within a year, but the majority of the infrastructure remains intact.

    If, some morning, the news people are reporting that the movers and shakers seem to have disappeared and haven’t been seen in public…………………….break out the candles and get ready, the lights are about to go out.

    Just kidding, surely they wouldn’t do that………….would they?

    1. Dennis
      Your thought pattern on this possibility, makes one stop & think.

      “Where in the world does he come up with these ideas”, and it is so close to what could happen. It motivates one to do more each day, and not that 3 day quote they keep reminding the brain dead masses.

      Youngest has expanded her garden, the oldest has been shaken to the core. She needs to put meat in the freezer and not micro wave meals. Wow, I can mean sometimes.

      1. Antique Collector,

        If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result, wouldn’t the definition of sanity be looking beyond the obvious (what we’re being told) and searching for the truth, looking for a new approach of attack?

  7. Dennis, We can pray that if this should happen all of our elected liberal and rino’s will be on vacation , stranded on some remote island… :>)

    1. Just Sayin’- Pretty sure those that control the switch won’t be giving the useful idiots a heads up…….they’ve served their purpose and won’t be needed for the brave new world order.

    2. P.S.-Of course, their hands will be clean……after all, they’ve been warning the unwashed lately that 3 days of food and water might not be enough if the lights go out. It ain’t like we’ve haven’t been warned. (as much as I despise socialism and the regime in Venezuela, I believe their blackouts had outside help. Test run for what’s possible world wide? Who can dispute it if we’re told it was a solar flare?)

  8. Old man did a calculation. He took the number of 8 billion people and found that they could all fit in the plains of St. Agustin out here in NM. They each could have 2 sq ft around them standing upright. There is a lot of empty land in the world and people are crowded in cities.

    1. They sure wouldn’t live very long though…

      But yes, most people are crowded in population dense cities, metros, regions.

    2. old lady,

      Did some calculations myself. Eight billion people packed into the state of Texas would give each person approximately 950 sq feet, only slightly more densely packed than New York City where there is one person for every 1,032 sq feet according to last census.

      1. Eight billion people packed into the state of Texas makes it sound like we have no real problem as far as too many people on the planet.

        But those 8 billion people like food, electricity and lots of other things that take up a lot more space then Texas likely has.

        And they also produce a lot of garbage that brings a new set of problems.

        I do think there are way too many people on the planet, but I have no idea how you fix it. If we could get rid of politicians it would be a good start to reducing problems. :)

      2. It’s mind boggling to visualize a NY City (picture their skyline and mass of high-rise structures) the size of Texas! Wow, that’s a stunning thought!! That’s a lot of people! Of course it would be impossible to survive like that.

        1. Ken,

          Another thought. Look at a road map of any country, state, or even the whole planet, or a map of the pipelines and power lines. They all merge together where the population is concentrated. Much like the circulatory or nervous system of the body. In the body, the heart and the brain is fed what they can’t produce themselves by outlying organs. Unlike the city/countryside comparison, the heart and the brain makes sure the organs are carefully provided for and protected, while the liberal progressive cities dismiss those that feed it as unnecessary, even detrimental, burdens holding them back.

          Eventually, those providing the sustenance, will either rebel or quit functioning. (Hello Oldhomesteader)

          1. That is what I hate about all the green energy. We have the wind turbines in our backyard and all the electric goes to either coast. Put these generators on their skyline.

        2. Population density of NYC is 27,000 per sq mi!!! Overall for US is 92.

          I’ve lived in Bangladesh, pop density of 1,146 per sq mi. A little larger than Iowa with a little more than half the pop of the US. And lived or worked in several of the most populous countries on earth. I am particularly delighted to be residing in my little forever community that’s got a density of 23 people per sq mi.

          I think that living in a country rich in land, water, and resources has made us, as a people, the innovative and economic powerhouse that we are in the world today. We are so blessed here. But it is not an unmixed blessing. Resources are finite, and current levels of depletion are not sustainable. In the end, we cannot be all things to all the world. When the US stumbles economically, the rest of the world crashes.

          I think the theory of human-caused accelerated climate change is false. Those who put out the narrative that if only the US would do more then the impacts of (sun-caused) climate change would be manageable are putting us all in danger, should bad weather have global impact.

          Just as we fear, should dark times come, that those who are prepared will be seen as the bogeyman, I fear that if international hard times come we will be blamed as the bad guy. We will be identified as an enemy to be attacked, especially in order to quell uprising masses. What will happen to us if, like the five wise virgins, we say “no, we have only enough for ourselves”?

        3. Shouldn’t be too much of a problem, Ken, I saw a movie about ‘the future’ where a similar problem was being experienced. It was solved by making this green stuff, out of soy beans I think. They called it Soy something. Green Soy, Soy Green, I think it had to do with the laundry…..lint or something. Soy lint? Soylint? Green Soylint? I can’t remember…….Maybe that could be useful in a Texas sized city.

          1. CrowBait=== might be “Soylent Green” you’re referencing? It was made from humans, soya and lentils. (“In the novel, most types of soylent are made from soya and lentils. The word also evokes the 1973 film adaptation Soylent Green, in which the eponymous food is made from human remains”)

          2. Jane……

            Of course I did. LOL There’s lentils in SG? Hmmmm…..might not be that bad then. But, if one thinks about it, how would ‘food’ make it to the ‘inner city’ of a metropolis as huge as Texas? For some reason I don’t think that would be that big of a fantasy.

            In hard times the general populace does/can/will migrate to a place where they assume food, shelter, water will be available. And free.

            Usually the only subjects that prosper are dogs, rats, and possums.

            I, personally, look forward to NOT being in the vicinity of places like DFW, LA, Florida, NYC, Chi-ca-go, Atlanta, NOLA, SF, or Sleeze-atle. Me likes it rat chere.

      3. I would never want to live in a city like that again. I was born in a suburb of Chicago and would never want to live like that again. (with neighbors that close)

  9. A natural pandemic could be in the future. Nature has a way of rejecting out of control species.

    1. That’s certainly one thing that I feel is quite possible at some point, given our world travel (travel in general) and speed of transmission.

    2. (A natural pandemic could be in the future.)

      OR someone introduces one that looks natural with the intent of massively lowering the World population.

      I would not trust any government to not do this at some point…

      1. CF
        The virus that is plaguing the human population at this very time & space has me wondering is a gene spliced organism. It “acts” like you are coming down with a cold but then mimics the “flu”. Headaches, body chills, fever that last up to a week or longer. Hacking cough that takes “weeks” to go a way.

        Sister is in week 2 or there about with this junk. A nurse at the hospital is now 2 months out with this (“whatever it is”)pseudo cold/flu hybrid virus. It is either a transplanted virus from those who are sneaking in to this country or lab created(carriers with no symptoms). Either way, have noticed that every year when the outbreak starts it is at a time of influx from 3rd worlder’s. The longevity of this illness is now longer and harder on the human body.

        1. CF and AC, there are many anti virals. people are dying and staying sick because they are not using the natural things. Possibly in combo with a prescribed thing…. Hacking cough is because it is both . Begins with a virus… bacterial component begins when fluid goes into lungs and is infected… much like the junk Bob has had this winter. tho he actually had the flu. followed with repeated sinus infections and bronchial pneumonia.. still takes weeks to clear a cough. That part s normal after bronchitis takes 6 weeks to clear all exudate from lungs. be a good time to stock up on those things for virals and bacterial events…

          In almost any health challenging event, it may not be the first thing that happens to you that takes one out to eternity…but the infections that attack debilitated ones. Bedsores, =circulation impairment and infection. Flu= bronchitis, pneumonia, asthma flare…etc. heart surgery?= respiratory compromise, lack of mobility,venous stasis,skin integrity compromise, blood clots, pneumonia,sepsis and death.

          To stay to the top side ??? How doe we combat any agenda, not in our best interest? take control of your own health care and diet as much as possible. filter water, everything not in an aquifer is re used… and recycled with every poison and medication known to man already in it… GOOD filters are n order to remove the soup of pharma in water.- There is already a recent post here on that.. grow your own food as much as possible..buy local from neighbors.

          Learn as much as you are able about a lot of different topics. choose what you are most interested in,and research those topics- intense interest= better retention. Make copies of your research and print those.

          1. Just Sayin
            Have been putting aside the Carnivora for a jic.

            If there is another one we should be setting aside let the group know along with us, and we will put it on the necessary list of must have’s for that time.

          2. AC… I’ll have to tackle these one at a time. I will try to think thru and go thru this logically. There was a young lady preparing for gym event. suddenly became ill and within hours had passed into eternity. Family are heartbroken. They released her cause of death to try to prevent others. In a summary, she got an infection, it went systemic into sepsis. Did not know how it began but suspected Urinary. Medications and herbals that are effective in the Urinary tract are also effective in the Respiratory, so this will cover the most ground.
            So I will begin with urinary anti-bacterials.. I have agonized over what to do for a multi drug resistant UTI, once it is present, and the sensitivity report says..Resistant to the list…Drs tend to give up. There is no time to wait on medications to come in, and no time to be doing research with any remedy that MIGHT work. Their words were ” This is a drug resistant infection, She s not running a temperature so we have no indication to keep her…Take her home and love her.Don’t bring her back here, we don’t have anything to give for this”
            There are the OTC’s that help with symptoms…pyridium- also sold as AZO -standard, a pharma. comes in generics by several makers…There is a different one called Uri-stat. IN a VERY early infection with garlic vinegar, these would help.
            Here is what we used.Garlic vinegar 8-10cc. 40 toes of garlic prepared for allicin release, then mashed, diced, pulverized.soaked for a minimum of 6 hours in acv..1 ounce jar. after 4 doses removed refill with acv.. do this for first 12 doses then refill and replace whn garlic liquid is gone….
            Usnea, Pippsiswea, Lomatium.Uva Ursi, I used these with a prescribed antibiotic by another Dr,…by giving herbals with an antibiotic “not on the list” or as a non reacting one… so real sensitive but not resistant. These can all be used together and there was no bad reaction. Usnea is available in a 30 mil dropper bottle from a herb pharm company. best quickest response is to put one cc under tongue Q4h. til symptoms are passed 24-48 hours.
            …herbals were given at same time as the antibiotic prescribed, The bacteria responded because both were absorbed together as one medication. I would give. 2 herbals with it , wait 2 hours and give 2 other. different herbals. after acute phase was passed, Temperature and sweats passed by 24 hours.. continued herbals with antibiotics til end of them . Then swapped herbals to a Urinary support formula in a tincture.company i got from has split and different people make by same recipe. company for small batch herbals.woodland wildcraft.. Good products and good info They have a full write up on ingredients of each formula they make and have the cautions listed with them…. .tinctures store longer and retain strength. above other forms properly stored.Remember… herbals half life is generally 4-hours. Companies are allowed to give you the way to use for health , not sickness.

  10. I read once that if a person is concerned about a bad SHTF and worries about the infrastructure and delivery system we have falling apart you should look into moving to a place that was able to support itself about without much outside help.

    The time of Wyatt Earp (1870’s) or so is a good time to shoot for. If a place has more population then when he was alive you will likely have problems as it will not likely be able to support itself if the population is beyond that point.

    Look at the population figures for then and now, they are almost guaranteed to be much higher. This means food will be hard to come by if it hits the fan.

    Our problem is almost everyplace has more people then it did back when Wyatt Earp was fighting bad guys. And for the most part they are living of the modern food delivery system and the grid and it’s ability to deliver and preserve food.

    Even if a prepper has a good solar system that fits his needs, those around him don’t and the World at large doesn’t have it, So while he can keep the lights on I wonder how much good it will do SHTF when the rest of the World is dark.

  11. End of Oil. None of it survives without the oil system in place. The farmers tractor doesn’t run, the trucks don’t run, the trains don’t run, the planes don’t fly.

    Good luck to the rats running from the city to a field of dent corn or soybeans, if SHTF happens at the right time of the year. Yes they may be edible on some level, I guess.

    I see very few big agri farmers in my area even putting in a garden for their own household. They live on imports too. Even the local dairies will go down with no way to transport milk, process feed, remove waste, ect.

    There was a reason a farmer had a dairy cow (not a herd) and that was to supply the family. There was a reason a farmer had a big family- Lots of long hours and hard manual labor needed.

    IMHO only the simple agriculture practices will survive: shovels and pitchforks. My back hurts just thinking about it!

    1. There was a bill in Congress during the O years (I don’t know if it passed) making it illegal for farmers to keep part of their harvest for their own use. It hurts the economy, don’t you know, when people don’t buy at the grocery stores.

      1. There was also the folks with USDA/FEMA/Homeland Defense sending letters requesting documentation of how many and what types of animals, crops, equipment ect. supposedly for “Continuation of Government” (COG) in case of a major disaster. I think it was the “Patriot Act.” There was all kinds of stuff flying around self sufficiency and prepper sites on the “new” legislation that allowed for “THEM” to put “US” to work doing whatever they wanted and also allowed them to take all the stuff; livestock, machinery, harvested crops. I think I remember someone commenting that they didn’t want ownership of crops in the field because that would require an effort (WORK!)to harvest it out of the field. Just want to take, take, take. I believe most folks just threw the letters in the trash.

        1. Ioclyokel,,,,, sad to say that’s all true , had it happen here ,, they came around and GPS the farm and grain bins and barns and counted number of livestock ,for the public good ,,Oh the look when I tell them I will not comply ,, my grain bins have been taken down , my felds are fallow,the equipment needed to plant and harvest needs put back together,if you can find the parts in the shop ha ha ,,if you want to see anger tell them who is John Galt? And watch there eyes ,
          So who is John Galt??ha ha ha

          1. Hey 0ldhomesteader,

            Yes I remember well an exchange you had with a troll on this site as you stated you have stopped production. The troll took the standpoint that YOU were bringing the END by not producing for the masses. LOL

            I tend to gravitate along your thought lines. Not producing anything for the masses of gimmedats. No income tax, no supplies, no food!

            Loclyokel

          2. Loclyokel,,,,,my goal is to feed those that have values such as I do ,i can produce food ,there are those that cannot, yet do things I cannot ,, I need them just as they need me ,i belive in a fair give and take ,value for value ,something of real value for something of real value,,

            Tea and chocolate

        2. When i get those, i toss them right into the trash.
          Its none of their business what i do on our place,
          Made the mistake of answering the phone a few years ago, thought it was the place i ordered some tires from, turned out to be some woman asking about my survey as they had not gotten it back, i told her i tossed it, she said they could prosecute me, i told her in no uncertain terms that they could cram it up her ass and by all means go ahead!
          Now they still send the surveys, i just toss em still,
          NOMFI

    2. Must have some viable seed put back. Most of the US is a GMO Monsanto nightmare. Will mention again. If you have not seen the documentary movie Food Inc. Take some time to do so.

      1. I have a bin of wheat (one of the old metal bins, which tells you just HOW old) that I’m keeping for seed. Also I have bags of other “old” types of wheat that I’m holding. Chances are good that at least a few grains will still be good when they’re needed.

        When this thing is over non-GMO seeds will be at a premium when the inputs needed for GMO seed are no longer available.

        And if “this thing” never arrives, it’ll all go down with me.

          1. Probably. I haven’t wanted the hassle of opening the bin and then trying to get it shut again. We gave some to a friend a few years ago for her chickens and they apparently loved it, so I’m guessing it was still viable.

            In any case, when it’s needed it will be there. If it has a 50% germination rate that’s fantastic. If it’s only 1% it’s still something.

          2. Lauren,
            My neighbors chickens dig through his horses poop to get corn,,, not a real good indicator of viability,,
            Just sayin is all,,,
            I had some wheat, sealed mylar bag, i didnt seal it, someone else did, it was full of bugs when i opened it,,,

          3. Tommyboy
            this is in response to your comment a few sections down.
            Now you know that you cant just seal it in a bag! Gotta freeze it for a while too before-hand just to make sure all the crawlies are dead. LOL Loclyokel

          4. Tommy ,,,,Lauren ,,, I have wheat that’s 50years old should be still good

          5. Loclyokl
            10-4
            Done hundreds of pounds into mylar lined 5s
            😎🤙🏻

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