A CDC data dump (cumulative data as of September 2020) reveals (in my opinion) very, very good news. The survival rate for Coronavirus Covid-19 (if you become infected) looks to be very good for most people.
The newly released CDC data is all statistical information to date. That means it’s from the beginning of Covid-19 till now. It is not a snap shot of “a good last 2 weeks” (for example). It is a calculation of the fatality rate over the entire pandemic with the latest data inputs.
The updated Covid-19 survival rates by age group:
Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) of Coronavirus Covid-19
According to the WHO, “The true severity of a disease can be described by the Infection Fatality Ratio”
Infection fatality ratio (IFR) =
Number of deaths from disease / Number of infected individuals
The CDC “Scenario #5 – Current Best Estimate” reveals the following numbers for Coronavirus Covid-19 “Infection Fatality Ratio” (with their “best estimate” of an R-naught viral transmissibility of 2.5).
IFR of those who become infected with Covid-19
0-19 years: 0.00003 (0.003%) 1 of 30,000
20-49 years: 0.0002 (0.02%) 1 of 5,000
50-69 years: 0.005 (0.5%) 1 of 200
70+ years: 0.054 (5.4%) 1 of 20
(source: Sep-10 update via CDC)
The 70+ age group IFR (5.4%) is particularly higher than the seasonal flu which is often quoted as having an IFR of 0.1 to 0.2 percent. However read the next section to shed some more light on Covid-19 deaths…
U.S. Deaths from Covid-19 are Misleading
What do I mean by that? Well, it’s about the numbers. Again they’re from the CDC. They list the number of deaths in the United States involving Covid-19.
Death certificates list any causes or conditions that contributed to the death. These causes are entered into the death certificate by a physician, medical examiner, or coroner, and there may be more than one cause or condition listed.
As most of you know (or should know by now), underlying very poor health conditions / comorbidity GREATLY contribute towards death when infected and sick from Coronavirus Covid-19.
The majority of Covid-19 deaths as listed by the CDC include the specific references to those other conditions. They include (but are not limited to) preexisting respiratory diseases, circulatory diseases, diabetes and obesity.
When examining the numbers of deaths which currently total approximately 194,000 in the United States, those deaths without comorbidity / other disease amount to about 6% (of the 194,000) with “just” Covid-19.
To be clear, the 6% (of the ~ 194,000) Covid-19 deaths are those listed as the only cause on death certificate. That’s not to say that the Covid-19 disease did not contribute towards death with all the others. However it certainly does point out that apparently ~ 94% of those who die “with” Covid-19 may not necessarily die “from” Covid-19. Rather, it was the trigger, in combination with the preexisting condition(s).
Most of us here consume news and information beyond just the mainstream. Therefore most of us have known for quite some time that most deaths from Covid-19 are heavily influenced by poor underlying health conditions among the elderly. The mainstream would have us all believe that we’re ALL dropping like flies. They even seek out the cases (where they can) of the extremely rare young person – to instill fear among us all.
The reality is that THANKFULLY Coronavirus Covid-19 has not turned out according to early predictions and modeling. It’s apparently no deadlier than the seasonal flu for most Americans. However it is deadlier for the elderly. Those with comorbidity are at a MUCH higher risk of death. And Covid-19 is also more contagious.
We are still learning about this disease. This is not intended to downplay the potential dangers for the elderly among us with underlying poor health conditions. There are also reports of those who get it (and recover) may be at ongoing risk for other health issues as a result. Reasonable precautions are always a good thing – especially during flu season (which is coming up).
#1 Wash your hands
#2 Don’t touch your eyes/nose/mouth until you’ve washed your hands
Those two things should cover most of it. Same as it always was.
If you’re elderly with comorbidity, even more precautions are obviously prudent.
I hope this helps to alleviate some of the hysterical fears which are ramped among the public at large.