CDC Estimates For Surviving Coronavirus Covid-19
A CDC data dump (cumulative data as of September 2020) reveals (in my opinion) very, very good news. The survival rate for Coronavirus Covid-19 (if you become infected) looks to be very good for most people.
The newly released CDC data is all statistical information to date. That means it’s from the beginning of Covid-19 till now. It is not a snap shot of “a good last 2 weeks” (for example). It is a calculation of the fatality rate over the entire pandemic with the latest data inputs.
The updated Covid-19 survival rates by age group:
0-19: 99.997%
20-49: 99.98%
50-69: 99.5%
70+: 94.6%
Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) of Coronavirus Covid-19
According to the WHO, “The true severity of a disease can be described by the Infection Fatality Ratio”
Infection fatality ratio (IFR) =
Number of deaths from disease / Number of infected individuals
The CDC “Scenario #5 – Current Best Estimate” reveals the following numbers for Coronavirus Covid-19 “Infection Fatality Ratio” (with their “best estimate” of an R-naught viral transmissibility of 2.5).
IFR of those who become infected with Covid-19
0-19 years: 0.00003 (0.003%) 1 of 30,000
20-49 years: 0.0002 (0.02%) 1 of 5,000
50-69 years: 0.005 (0.5%) 1 of 200
70+ years: 0.054 (5.4%) 1 of 20
(source: Sep-10 update via CDC)
The 70+ age group IFR (5.4%) is particularly higher than the seasonal flu which is often quoted as having an IFR of 0.1 to 0.2 percent. However read the next section to shed some more light on Covid-19 deaths…
U.S. Deaths from Covid-19 are Misleading
What do I mean by that? Well, it’s about the numbers. Again they’re from the CDC. They list the number of deaths in the United States involving Covid-19.
Death certificates list any causes or conditions that contributed to the death. These causes are entered into the death certificate by a physician, medical examiner, or coroner, and there may be more than one cause or condition listed.
As most of you know (or should know by now), underlying very poor health conditions / comorbidity GREATLY contribute towards death when infected and sick from Coronavirus Covid-19.
The majority of Covid-19 deaths as listed by the CDC include the specific references to those other conditions. They include (but are not limited to) preexisting respiratory diseases, circulatory diseases, diabetes and obesity.
When examining the numbers of deaths which currently total approximately 194,000 in the United States, those deaths without comorbidity / other disease amount to about 6% (of the 194,000) with “just” Covid-19.
To be clear, the 6% (of the ~ 194,000) Covid-19 deaths are those listed as the only cause on death certificate. That’s not to say that the Covid-19 disease did not contribute towards death with all the others. However it certainly does point out that apparently ~ 94% of those who die “with” Covid-19 may not necessarily die “from” Covid-19. Rather, it was the trigger, in combination with the preexisting condition(s).
The Takeaway
Most of us here consume news and information beyond just the mainstream. Therefore most of us have known for quite some time that most deaths from Covid-19 are heavily influenced by poor underlying health conditions among the elderly. The mainstream would have us all believe that we’re ALL dropping like flies. They even seek out the cases (where they can) of the extremely rare young person – to instill fear among us all.
The reality is that THANKFULLY Coronavirus Covid-19 has not turned out according to early predictions and modeling. It’s apparently no deadlier than the seasonal flu for most Americans. However it is deadlier for the elderly. Those with comorbidity are at a MUCH higher risk of death. And Covid-19 is also more contagious.
We are still learning about this disease. This is not intended to downplay the potential dangers for the elderly among us with underlying poor health conditions. There are also reports of those who get it (and recover) may be at ongoing risk for other health issues as a result. Reasonable precautions are always a good thing – especially during flu season (which is coming up).
#1 Wash your hands
#2 Don’t touch your eyes/nose/mouth until you’ve washed your hands
Those two things should cover most of it. Same as it always was.
If you’re elderly with comorbidity, even more precautions are obviously prudent.
I hope this helps to alleviate some of the hysterical fears which are ramped among the public at large.
How many deaths have occurred that were totally unrelated to any underlying health condition, like motorcycle accidents but were counted as covid because of the financial incentive (na none of course). I have total faith in the system as being honest and non-political/ sarc.
We had one death in Big Horn County, an elderly person who was out of state when he caught it, out of state when he was diagnosed and treated and out of state when he died. But he was a legal resident of our county, so they counted him here. What do you want to bet that they counted him in that other state also?
Update: In this morning’s paper they are counting one more death. An elderly man died in another state after being exposed to the virus in Wyoming.
Daisy K: I wasn’t aware that there is another Big Horn County other than the one in southeast Montana. You know…the one that encompasses Billings and the Crow/Northern Cheyenne Reservation.
The county that has the highest number of cases in the state and only
17 deaths. That’s the county you’re referring to.Right?
Vickie, I am in Big Horn County Wyoming. North Central part of the state. The Big Horn mountains are in my state too.
Hysterical fears indeed!! Thank you for some useful numbers that we never get from the MSM.
For any prepper (and anyone concerned about COVID), it behooves us to keep ourselves healthy and practice good hygiene. Doing so will keep the greater majority of the bad bugs and diseases from getting us.
Stephan: Numbers are useful only when true and correct.Would not you agree?
Many hysterical fears are spread on that totally reliable source called InterNet.
Yes, I agree! Statistics lie and liars use statistics. Unfortunately, that puts is all in a world where it’s often difficult to figure out what is really true.
No, I don’t rely on MSM for anything – they’re not trustworthy, but I do hear it on a regular basis and it’s irritating.
I still haven’t worn a mask yet. Not one person has approached me…not even one.
Since the supreme court ruled that corporations are personages, what is the tally of their deaths and how does it compare?
GREAT QUESTION
They aren’t to free with the information that the RTPCR test results are dependant on the number of cycles that are done. Some experts have stated that if virus is detected at 30 cycles the person is contagious, at 33 to 35 cycles the person he to few virus particles to be contagious. Above 35 cycles the test is detecting fragments of the virus. They further stated that 80 to 90 percent of the positive tests are not contagious. The testing labs are doing 40 cycles. I think that the testing would be much more valuable if the cycles were were stopped at 30 so we would know who is contagious rather than who may have had the virus at some time in the past.
Wall Street Journal had an article about the virus attaching itself to certain cells including fat cells explaining the increased risk for those overweight. Motivated me and a neighbor to make losing weight a higher priority. I guess a silver lining in this whole mess. I read in the WSJ many months ago Italy did a study and when they removed from the numbers of deaths those who would likely have died in the next 12 months due to other conditions regardless of covif, the mortality rate was similar to influenza.
I haven’t seen anything “official” on the transmission rate. It seems to me to be less contagious than the flu. I know at the beginning they were saying 4 or 5, but I haven’t heart anything recently.
Lauren
It would be helpful to know the estimated penetration rate of the virus in the general population. Months ago I saw estimates ranging from 20 to 50 times the diagnosed cases. A tremendous number of people may have had this virus in an unremarkable manner.
If you run into this number could you post it?
Why are you being a Richard?
Its good news if you believe them.
The deaths have been reported as 200,000. Out of 330,000,000 people, that percentage does not even calculate out…do the math. And if you look at the CDC saying that 6% are “only” COVID, well, do the math again. Can you even find that number?
I don’t wanna be a puddle of mudd, but this NWO, CDC, WHO plan went well for them.
They instilled fear, panic, and mayhem.
They shut down the world wide economy. How many businesses will never return?
They have and still are controlling the people. Face masks, social distancing, etc…
been to church service lately?
How long will we play their game?
It’s funny(not) how some businesses profited from this, while others failed, closed permanently.
How much tax payer monies went to some corporations, but not all?
This is a test…..this is only a test….of more fraud, money play games, and more people control.
JMO
Joe c,
If you’re a puddle of mud, then I’m a demo derby pit. Must be somethin’ in the air today. Could sure use one of those calming reports from Dennis on the mountain. Beauty and peacefulness and gratitude…
Worst would be not going to heaven. That’s my main go to. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you, keep being thankful for all your blessings (especially the seemingly small ones) and most of all, keep your eyes on Jesus 🙋♀️✝️
Bidet has said nationwide mask mandates should be enacted now,..it’s.On Video. Also is he wants to take freedom pieces…including your money , bank accounts. and make sure everyone has equal.. except his of course.He and family , associates will remain very heavily paid for doing the same thing he has done for multiple decades.
No matter who wins the election…Many businesses will never return. Jobs are lost. People will need to make their own job.Grow own groceries as much as possible. trade with neighbors for things we have trouble growing….. Mom and pop stores. big business dependent on travel…. will take a very long time to return-and repair on those properties will need to be ongoing to upkeep.
Just Sayin
locally, saw a piece in the news that 60% of business have been closed in our state because of the virus,
not good
some of the best local restaurants have been terminal,
its a shame, i doubt things will come back to normal any time soon in spite of what the bureaucrats say
According to a NYT article, chances of dying in a car crash 1 in 106 and from opioids 1 in 98. From falls 1 in 111. Lots of really scary things in life. Same stats on National Safety Council website.
CDC lists the leading cause of death, heart disease, kills 655,000 people every year.
cdc (dot) gov/heartdisease/facts.htm
The second leading cause of death is cancer. In 2018 the number was 599,274.
cdc (dot) gov/cancer/dcpc/research/update-on-cancer-deaths/index.htm
Well NC goes into phase 3 tomorrow at 5:00 pm. I guess my question would be what has changed from the time this mess started until now. Are people less likely to die, get sick, transmit it to another person, etc. now than in March, April, May… If Covid -19 was a danger then shouldn’t be a danger now, do we not need to social distance forever or until we get a miracle cure. I think it’s a lot of BULL CRAP to shut down the country and select who can and cannot open their business. Taking common sense measures should have the choice all along, but politics as usual picks and chooses the fate of many. Would not want to be the ones that intentionally put out false information with ill intent or personal gain as their reason for doing it. judgement Day will come for all of us.
Stay safe and God Bless
I thought you were joking till I looked it up.
Now we get a true test of some treatments and the severity for this 74 year old. Hopefully, they stay asymptomatic throughout and he works the whole time. Show the naysayers.
Also, Boris Johnson of the UK is fine after the ailment.
The President will hold office unless he ends up in ICU on a ventilator, then maybe Pence will be sworn in.
If it is not a false positive and the numbers presented are correct, chance is 95%. I hope the virus in POTUS and FLOTUS is defeated in 7 to 10 days.
I’ve been running errands for a nearby 74 y/o DFM recently diagnosed with Covid. His quarantine period is up on Saturday. So far, he’s done fine. Had a couple days feeling extra tired, altered taste and smell, minimal fever (only on day tested) but otherwise, just frustrated that his regular schedule has been interrupted by having to stay home.
Just heard someone refer to this year’s election as a referendum on hope vs. fear. Not a bad comparison.
Oct 2 – On Armstrongeconomics.com: “Chief Science Officer for Pfizer says ‘Second Wave’ Faked on False-Positive COVID Tests.”
My 83 year old husband, my 82 year old sister and I were exposed to covid when our beautician tested positive the day after we were there. My husband has several underlying conditions but is still active; my sister has congestive heart failure and needs oxygen when she’s sleeping.
All of us are now out of of quarantine without showing any symptoms. Some prayer, sensible living, small town…
That’s great to hear! (not the actual getting it part, but the survival)
Despite being in the 70+ age group, you all were among the 94.6% who survive Covid-19.
Ken, Thank you for keeping it real. I haven’t commented in a while, but I had to for this one. Thank you.
Your are most welcome.
Knowing the irrational fear that exists out there, a calm look at the statistics may help quell some of those fears to an extent.
This pandemic will not be over until “herd immunity” is achieved.
The mask and distance thing are feel good measures and do nothing more than delay the spread. We get exposed by physical contact, plasma, or a vaccine.
But this over-control of the population may well lead to a civil war because we will fight for our freedom at some point. The question is, where is the line, when is it “enough”?
Don’t get too excited….
Watch both videos (comments by POTUS and walk to helicopter):
twitter.com/Breaking911
Walter Reed has a suite of Presidential Offices so he can continue to work as he feels up to it, as well as be monitored as necessary. Prudent.
Prayers to POTUS and FLOTUS for a speedy recovery.
I don’t blame him. It would just be a 3 ring circus of accusations etc. I am not surprised that he has gone to Walter Reed. It seems like it would almost be mandatory.
“Antiparasitic drug Ivermectin kills coronavirus in 48 hours”
A team of researchers has found that a drug already available around the world can kill the coronavirus in a lab setting in just 48 hours.
They showed that Ivermectin reduced COVID-19 viral RNA present in cell culture by as much as 93 percent after 24 hours and by 99.8 percent after 48 hours, at around a 5,000-fold reduction in coronavirus RNA, hinting that the medicine can potentially eradicate the virus.
>> Story at news-medical.net
Will we hear about this in the mainstream?
Ken – not a chance, if the patent has run out. Now, if they can tweak the molecular structure slightly, slam that dog through EUA and bring it to market at a $10,000 per dose price point…. Then you’ll be hearing about non-stop 27/7/365 along with taxpayer subsidized ‘grants’ and low APR loans to “get clean”, get certified”. The ad copy is already jingling in my addled brain.