Prepping & Preparedness 3 – Overview
“Prepping and Preparedness 3” is a level of being prepared for up to 1 year.
Check the series overview (linked below) for my logic and reasoning why I split it the way that I did.
Level 3 encompasses advanced precautions and actions going well beyond the ordinary.
You might say that Preparedness Level 1 is about being prepared for “emergencies” (more likely, and lasting up to 1 week). Level 2 however is “disaster” preparedness (less likely to occur, lasting several weeks up to 1 month). On the other hand, Level 3 is truly a “SHTF” collapse scenario enduring beyond 1 month into several months up to 1 year.
While a wide ranging Level 3 catastrophe may seem very unlikely, the fact is that if it were to happen in today’s modern world, there will be a high likelihood of non-survival.
Yes, that’s right. There will be little chance of survival in today’s dependent world if sustaining infrastructure and distribution were to break down for an extended period of time. We are NOT the same society as our ancestors who could largely survive on their own or within the circle of resources in their communities.
Level 3 will be nothing like Level 1 or 2. Why? Because the length of time presumes MAJOR MALFUNCTION to the extreme. It’s one thing to be living through several weeks of disaster on your own. A disaster that’s regional (usually major weather related) and will be over before too long. It’s entirely different trying to live through a complete breakdown affecting well beyond just your local region. A loss of modern infrastructure and distribution will doom most of those affected.
Preparedness Level 3 Topics
I will write about several topics for Level 3, each with their own unique preparations and considerations that go well beyond Level 1 & 2.
- The Walking Dead
- Health & First Aid
- Alternative Energy
- Community & Rebuilding
Within these topics there will be sub-topics of prep concerns which I will also address. I may think of others, but the list above covers the 30,000-foot view of the major issues.
As you most certainly know, water is a top level priority. Dealing with water preparedness for 1 week, or several, is not terribly difficult. Though it could be, depending on a few things… With that said, water for months or longer WILL require a different approach. You cannot in practicality store that much water.
Fortunately, we CAN store enough food to last for a year. It gets a bit tricky compared with one’s deep pantry for just a few weeks or a month or two. However I will address those issues in this topic.
Oh my… This one is going to be very, or fairly important for some. Though for others not so much. I’ll explain why, and what to do about it during the discussion of Location (one’s home, or BOL).
To an extent, location will tie in with one’s personal and home security. But only to an extent. The issue of safety and security is going to be HUGE for EVERYONE in a Level 3 event. There will be some very uncomfortable thoughts and discussion within this topic. As well as ideas how to think of and implement security plans.
The Walking Dead
Sort of like the title of a popular TV show, a Level 3 societal meltdown will lead to a certain amount of “the walking dead” zombies. The reality will be LOTS of desperate and then dying and eventually dead people. I don’t care where you live during this event, in my estimation you WILL have to deal with some of this (or much of this). It’s not going to be easy, to say the least.
Health & First Aid
Unlike Level 1 or 2, during a long term SHTF of many months up to a year there’s going to be circumstances that require First Aid of some sort. Potentially including trauma care. That, and other health related issues will be significant enough to discuss in its own topic.
It will make life MUCH easier if you have alternative energy sources during this period of time. This not only includes electricity generation but also natural resources. A Level 3 collapse assumes there will be no power grid. Having some, will provide leverage and advantage to survival in general.
There will be all sorts of sanitary / sanitation issues to deal with. Ordinary cleaning, hygiene, washing, human waste, etc.. Imagine a (long) time when your municipal water and sewer systems are non-functional. This will be a high priority to deal with.
Community & Rebuilding
It will be very difficult if not impossible in some cases, to “go it alone” for so long. Some will try it alone, and get through it. Others will try and be overrun, displaced, or worse. There will be an initial period of high danger whereby like-minded neighbors (community) could be great assets for security and safety (among other things). Then the great die-off. The follow-on period will be safer, though again, a like-minded local group will be better able to succeed afterwards. And eventually rebuild.
In summary, it is not so easy preparing for Level 3. It takes time, commitment, skills, and yes, more money. Is it worth doing? Well that’s up to you and your risk-tolerance threshold.
On the surface it seems like such a catastrophic collapse would be very, very unlikely. The reason it seems that way is because of our normalcy bias. Most of us have never faced anything even remotely like this. Life is so cushy, easy, everything at our fingertips, that we can’t possibly imagine a collapse of infrastructure to this extent. “That will never happen”. Right?
I will be posting on the topics listed above along with other articles here on MSB as time rolls on…
[ Read: Preparedness Level 1 – 4 Series Overview ]
The truth is, I am not prepared for a full “Mad Max” level #3 world. A 1# for sure, a 2# pretty much. For some “survival” becomes their religion, as for Me and my home, we will serve The Lord with a faith in that when we perish we will be in a better/perfect place.
This is a very chilling subject Ken, as usual this site is practical and no nonsense.
Will agree 1000% on “as usual this site is practical and no nonsense”
One must admit that even preparing for a Level 1 or 2 it’s at times is chilling for a LOT of folks that have nonexistent preparedness and are at the full reliance on the handouts from the .gov or many organizations that are normally there to help.
Let’s face the cold reality; even a level 1 event can be devastating for someone that has zero preparedness.
The simple fact that your good to go with a Level one and most likely level two, your wayyyyyy ahead of 75% of the country.
That’s perfectly fine that you’re not prepared for Level 3, and choose not to.
I want to be clear – I do not disparage in any way, those who choose not to prep to this level. Level 2 is great, and the most useful (and really is not that hard to do). Most disasters which may potentially come your way will be Level 2 or Level 1.
Also, for “Seminole Wind”, just so you know, “survival” or preparedness is NOT a religion (or my religion). I don’t know anyone for whom it is. Rather, it’s a life insurance policy of sorts. Those who take it beyond Level 2 (who focus more time, effort, monies on preparedness) are often those who enjoy or feel internally motivated to a greater level of self reliance. That’s where I sit. To the extent that I am able, I am a motivated self-reliant person – though I do accept help from others when I may need it ;) I particulary enjoy some of the aspects (categories) of preparedness, and I tend to spend more time on those (out of sheer interest). Again, no, it’s not a religion. Just saying.
For us it is just good common sense to be prepared. We are in the middle of the ocean, when things go south and there is no more boat coming, there will also be no more stuff to buy.
To the best of my ability with the resources i have. Be they thin or be they plenty.
Typically, i will go a bit overboard picking up stuff i might need as opposed to stuff that would be a nice to have right now item, like a vacation, or new clothes, i will opt for a bolt of fabric or some hides or extra supplies for smoking meat or the like.
To me, that stuff is more valuable, even if the SHTF is just me ending up broke for a while, deer are within a short walk, my shop can always turn out some needed item made of canvas, cordura or denim, and all manner of leather goods from shoes and flip flops to gun belts and holsters.
I suppose its a bit of a hobby, or a whole slew of hobbies, but homesteading, making, growing, raising,
Thats my smileyface activity. Lifes short, enjoy it
Ken, I am sorry if you thought that I was out of line in my comments. Please know that I hold this site and YOU in high regard. As I am sure you know, many ” Survival Sites” are forums for Kooks who believe in all sorts of Conspiracies.
I recall a site that openly posted information on cannibalism and another showing a video about a man who’s survival plan was to make a list of Preppers near him so he could rob them in a collapse.
No worries. I was just clarifying my position. Thanks for visiting MSB, where I “try” to keep it practical and sensible. “Usually” ;)
I understand fully. I struggle with the same thing, how much am I trusting in myself instead of God? May I suggest you re-read the story of Joseph (coat of many colors), his being sold by his brothers, ending up in Egypt. How he convinced the pharaoh to store up grain to survive a vision of a coming famine, and in the process became a sort of savior for his family and his people (Israelites) who came seeking food and shelter.
Thought provoking article Ken. Looking forward to the rest of it. I have always said Americans are soft these days.You are right we are used to everything at our fingertips.I hope we never see the die off. But feel we might.there are a multitude of things that can go wrong, we just do the best we can.
When thinking through Level 3 scenarios, there isn’t much experience I can draw from, aside from several extreme natural disasters (Hurricane Katrina) and terrorist attacks (9/11).
Personally, we will not be adventurous. We’ll be home, on lock-down. But not everyone will be. So I am more concerned about home security than anything else: “humans” will resort to animal behaviors worse than we’ve already seen.
Most of us are not skilled in military or tactical manuevers/combat, nor are we prepared to deal with roving gangs or groups of criminals. For most of us, our homes are not built or retrofit to serve as fortresses, either.
My second concern with a Level 3 scenario is with health and medical issues: natural aging, chronic health issues, and less-than-desirable living conditions will all contribute to any number of medical issues, or emergencies.
Medicines, surgeries, and any number of nursing/doctoring needs will simply not be easy to acquire in a Level 3 scenario.
All that we can do is prepare as best as we can with what we have been blessed with.
We are working at the 3 level with many of our things. Probably a 2+ in most things.
It’s hard. I think that’s the reason so many aren’t there. I mean we spent a hot day behind a welder and an anvil knocking out caltrops Sunday afternoon while the rest of America drank and watched ball.
I will lose the wife due to health issues in a 3. Sucks but we’ve discussed it. Is what it is.
I foresee a lot more heart attacks in a 3. There is a substantial increase in a 2 like snow/ice storms.
I don’t talk much anymore about dealing with the “zombies”(those that feed and prey on the living) because it gets in a lot of feels and goes against humanity and religious beliefs.
After living through those going through a 3 like in the Balkans (hope veteran chimes in) and seeing what they dealt with and doing the things I did I changed. I know there’s some Middle East vets here with some thoughts too.
Many here see humanity at their worst daily. In order to survive the job and go home at the end of shift they must win. That attitude and actions will only increase in magnitude.
I get through the OODA much quicker and reach a level of violence that is shocking to others. Unfortunately it takes this at the 3 or higher level.
Food must be viewed differently very quickly. It’s fall and the birds are migrating. Should IT happen now you need to kill and eat them, all of them, now. It will be months before you see them again. Same with rodents. Save your preps.
Matt in Oklahoma,
I’m not a Vet. but I completely agree with you. I have always said that People are going to be the problem. The more People the bigger the problem. Most things you can survive, with a little knowledge and the will to live. I will try my hardest to get where people aren’t and survive. That will be my challenge.
Sometimes when thinking how to get to some item, or subject area, of level 3 planned costed and working your butt off towards implementation; the brain fires out a glimpse of some stark vision (a personal version) of what it might look like “out there” at some time during a long level 3 event, stops me in my tracks for a bit. Looks like a hard road to me. Just keep grinding along I guess.
Rock on Ken!
Looking forward to the Level 3 series.
Stepped onto that path as I became convinced of the coming dark cold years. A number of other events within the realm of probability could take us there too. Like Dennis, I think, opined once, am my family’s Plan B.
Very interesting. We are right now shoring up our security around here. Could last a year on our supplies, but our garden failed more than I expected this year, right at the end. Grrrrr! Produced great (as usual) then rotted from too much rain, and the insects were relentless this year. I was counting on a harvest three times above what I actually brought in the door. Would not bode well for the future if we cannot replace what we use from our stores. Ken was right – plant for food calories! I think I told everyone last week I re-read “The Resilient Gardener” book again. Excellent information. And isn’t there a book about four-season gardening, even in winter?
I have NO IDEA anymore how all my neighbors will react around us should SHTF and we face a Level 3 event. I thought we were all okay, but many are now divided against each other. A few have actually died (elderly), some have moved. A few neighbors are in their 80’s and on meds; wouldn’t survive a month without them. It would certainly mean we would have to take one day at a time and be super cautious about everything and everyone. Some family is very close by so that would help.
Garden—-Have you considered creating a way to drape covers over the area to keep the rain off the planting bed. In ground cross tied poles like a teepee to drape covers over the plants. If you have planter boxes, poles that you can tie together at the top but at an angle to drain the rain away without creating a sagging in the cover? Those same poles can be used for putting up covers to keep the heat down during the massive heat waves that hit areas of the USA.
Elderly neighbors, do you have a book on herbal medicines that you may find a cross over in the plant world. Some way you could drop a hint to those you like, or care about. Their knowledge may be of assistance in that scenario #3, just thinking out loud.
AC, great minds think alike! Just received row covers I ordered last week for my raised beds. Also looking at shade covers as its been too hot to get my fall seedlings in just yet. Great idea on the herbals too. My thanks!
Oh and I bought tarps for heavy rains (and early frosts) too.
I have been trying to convince my husband that we need at least one very long hoop house within our main garden area. A hoop house would extend seasons a bit, and it would/could also protect from extreme weather (strong sun in August, heavier than normal rainfall at the ‘wrong times’).
My vision of the hoop house is to use PVC piping and side sections of wood to anchor the piping to. The piping would be bent in a U-shape to give us height to stand while inside, and also for the support of plastic.
Plastic on a hoop house could also hold shade cloth (there are different strengths of shade cloth, btw). Extra plastic would be available at both ends to cinch them for protection, or to open up to release heat. Also, a basic roping system would be added so that the sides of plastic could be rolled up and down, similar to window shades.
So that’s my vision for a hoop house that I feel is necessary to be able to protect our crops from some of the crazy weather patterns we’ve seen over the years.
The 4-season gardener who has written books may be Elliot Coleman, who lives in Maine. Check out his books, or his website at FourSeasonsFarm.
I used plumbing pvc, which is intended to withstand extremes of heat and cold.
The years of the apocalypse
The first year was tumultuous. Near collapse of our area when the lights went out. Our family and about a dozen neighbors were able to block bridges on the highway at both sides of our area using disabled semi’s to block the road. Even with this defensive action my 20k rounds of ammo was almost depleted in the first three months. Then I believe depopulation reduced incursions into this area. Our non-combustible clad buildings probably saved our homes many times. Level One preparedness made life possible through that year. Information gathered said that many people had left urban/suburban areas heading for water courses and lakes as water and game ran out. Ourselves being somewhat prepared, we stayed.
Year two saw the shortages of fuel. It became more difficult to water our extensive garden. Production suffered some and food storage of the produce became difficult. Freeze drying and powered dehydration was finished. So canning, salting, smoking, … became necessary, but was more labor intensive. Why so, because firewood was running low and bringing in more became difficult. Crosscut saws and axes are no match to chainsaws. When all motorized vehicles stopped due to bad fuel, hauling wood for the upcoming winter took priority. Level Two preps were nearing the end in many areas.
Year three was nothing less than a daily fight for survival. Garden was devoted to only the highest producing crops and the most nutritious, not the most prefered. Livestock was gone from our area because we could not bring in enough feed for them and loss in the pasture could not be prevented due to people and the few scavenging animals that had not yet been hunting to extinction. That left us with some chickens and rabbits for protein but even this was hard to sustain through the winter.
What I did not mention was the other tribulations. Luckily, I had my teeth out before the SHTF and had several sets of dentures. Some others were not so lucky and had to have bad teeth pulled in pieces in some cases. Infections took the lives of several people from a variety of ailments. Tools were wearing out, boots were shot, game was gone, … people became like animals, scavenging for anything to eat. People’s energy was gone so hauling water was an all day chore just to keep some garden plants alive. Then winter again.
We never knew what finished the people in this part of the world but hoped that somewhere the weather was better for survival. Perhaps the reason that populations survived on the sea coasts and rivers over the centuries was the abundance of food and water. I’m sure that some nomadic tribes with their herds of goats still roam the county side but we had not the knowledge to live that way.
Is there a Level four that could have sustained us into a different future?
Hermit us “And the living envied the dead” Ecclesiastes 4:2
Sounds like a horrible survivalist story. However given all of us are HERE and thus our parents-grand parents-great grandparents and so forth managed to CARRY ON through war, disease, famine and SHUDDER Pre-A/C, Pre-Internet, Pre-Cheap Oil and Pre-Electricity somehow HUMANS muddle through.
Some say but we don’t have the WORK Ethic, the Morals, the knowledge of our forefathers, The Violence of others, etc.
Work ethic… Root Hog or DIE is a pretty good motivator. Those that DO survive to breed, those that don’t die off. No Nanny State welfare to keep them breathing and breeding.
Morals? The Bible is still quite popular in places that are currently ALMOST as bad as described in Hermit us story. Also the Bible shows the highs and lows of Human behavior if you read it as a whole not a Sunday school fairy tale. Morals are self establishing ONCE the Nanny State “you CANNOT Discriminate against that disgusting so and so” is gone. Shunning works.
Knowledge, that’s the HARD part. Thus I preach learning from the Internet and networking with friends as NOT to fall back into “Dirt Farming” poverty. Looking at successful societies of the past Pre-Electricity and semi-electricity like the Amish shows that hard work can be a enjoyable lifestyle BECAUSE their attitude of mutual support (like Barn Raisings) and working SMART. They have down time and enjoy country pleasures like picnics and celebrate weddings and such.
Violence, has there EVER been a time that humans did no violence to each other? Genesis describes the first murder with a “Assault Rock” between Cain and Able. Defense is stronger than aggression. The danger is going to ramp up pretty fast once rule of law fails. It will peak and start dropping down once some 80-90% of our easy electricity driven population dies off due to lack of safe water and shelter. The Mad Dogs that survive will become Warlords or be killed off.
Looking at other places Civil War (The closest I can find to an true SHTF situation) has occurred OUR American weakness is They build with Concrete-stone and we build with flammable stick buildings. They field modified them for example in Bosnia with bricks from ruined buildings to fill in windows (weak Spots), used rubble walls with out gates (weak Spots) using ladders from inside to gain re-entry to the group home. They had natural defense from fire and bullets. We DON’T.
They quickly went into larger multi-family mutual support, We want to live in our OWN homes with “Privacy”. Most of us will die inside our private flammable, stick built, non-bullet resistant homes to groups who work together as a team to take from “Rugged Individualists”.
Bullets and fire need to be addressed beyond the G U N range. Yes 1st Aid and Israeli Bandages are a good start BUT a Fire Resistant Bullet Hardened Outbuilding is CRITICAL to the survival of your family. Just the effort of a 24 hour a day 7 day a week 365 degree look out would take way too much manpower. Manpower needed for sanitation, water pumping, firewood collecting and such. Stuff done FOR us by Electricity.
The Earth sheltered Tractor shed dug into the south facing hill with a bullet-fire resistant log and earth front wall with a sandbagged roofed fighting position on top…. 365 degree view, two can cover it vs. HOW many in your home? Temperature control very similar to a walk out basement warmer in winter, cooler in summer. Just not that nice French Door-Sliding Door home we want.
That will protect you from most of the weather-temperature moderation issues, fire hazards and violence of the near future. Cost as a Tractor Shelter minimum if you have a back hoe and chainsaw. Adding a driven well inside (Not Code but don’t ask, don’t tell..) and you have a Hobbit Castle.
This is getting into the meat and potatoes of preparedness and self reliance.
2 things that are discussed often when our different groups get together:
The local “gentry” will try to assert undo pressure and authority on the population possibly for their own personal gain.
Bad guys with skills,motivation and money are preparing just like us for these types of scenarios.
A good chance that the “local gentry” will work with the bad guys to assert their power in your AO.
Just something to ponder over…
(I’m just one big ray of sunshine huh?)
I’m glad you’re starting this series again. For me, if we can’t get gas we’re staying right where we are in this type of emergency. Dad would collapse within a mile or two, so I am preparing as best I can to shelter in place.
As for the faith piece–I trust my God to tell me what I need to do to prepare. So far it appears that I’m being guided to prepare for an extended economic downturn rather than a complete collapse, but honestly I don’t know.
I AM being directed to prepare, and in some cases it’s entirely unambiguous. The water tanks were an absolute, as was the greenhouse. In both cases I pretty much had to put it in His hands and say “If you think this is important you’re going to have to make it happen, because I can’t.” And He did.
does anyone know what the plans are for prisons? will they let non-violent prisoners out and let them die in prison of starvation if the grid goes down?
Others here have experience in corrections in one form or another and hopefully they will chime in too.
It seems to vary greatly worldwide and the determining factor seems to be the speed of decline.
There are cases of total abandonment, some like Mexico where the family is responsible for feeding the prisoner rather than the government and cases where only the worst are held and “minor” crimes are the norm in society such as Brazil. In some cases more get added depending on the government like El Salvador and they just get lumped together with no classification.
If the grid does go down as you stated things will deescalate quickly and cut communication so how exactly will “they” determine who is who? The thug or his family’s word? Probably not. Who is going to be there to make choices? Not many and not for long IMO. There’s no one and no way to give an order like that and most likely anyone there ain’t worried about it cause they are worried bout their own as they should be. Of course minimum security and halfway houses will just walk out and become zombies feeding on the rest. Some inside secure places might escape if they are out of the cells/pods/units when IT happens and can get to the fencing. It’s just another example of don’t put yourself in that position of “laugh now cry later”.
Prisoners are not high up on priorities of most folks (rightfully so) unless directly effected with loved ones. At the end of the day in SHTF where there are limited resources who do you want to keep alive, the normal hardworking family, a top scientist and crew or rapist, thieves, drug dealers and murders?
I’m guessing since your asking it’s personal but you can’t worry yourself with that. There are others and yourself that need and deserve care. Prepare for those and hopefully the rest will work out for you.
MaEl, there was a discussion about this some time ago–I don’t remember the topic. But someone said that when the power goes out the cells automatically lock down hard. They’re designed so that they need power to open. I don’t remember if a physical key was a possibility. In a real grid down that power simply would not be available.
Maybe someone could chime in who knows?
I worked for the State of Texas Department of Corrections for 15 years. In that time, I worked in both a minimum/medium security prison and a psychiatric facility. I also watched them build a ‘Super Seg’, although I only worked there a few months after it was brought online. In Texas at least, yes, the cells will lock down automatically, or at least are supposed to, when the power goes out.
I have seen in at least one occasion when a car crashed into a power pole and knocked out the power to the minimum/medium prison, it worked exactly the other way, springing open all of the cells on a medium security wing of about 80 prisoners. It was an ‘interesting’ couple of hours getting that wing under control, involving pepper gas foggers and riot gear. I was there in a gas mask as well, because medical staff are needed at hand in those types of situations. Being a rapist or murderer will not relieve you of having asthma or COPD.
Yes, a physical key is a possibility, you have to be able to get into a cell regardless. We spent three days without power in that incident, and the medical staff still had to see inmates for their problems. Medical records, Dental, X-Ray and others still came in and worked. Generally, what they were doing was helping food service make up sandwiches and paper lunch bags, or as they are known in Texas, “Johnnies,” for the inmates to be fed in their cells.
Even sick call is hazardous, though. A friend of mine got too close to the feeding slot in the cell door, or “Bean Chute” and was grabbed by an inmate who very nearly tore her breasts from her ribs necessitating several hours of surgery and months of recovery. This was despite having three officers, armed with clubs (well, 20″ pieces of 1 1/4′ pipe with a special U-shaped tip used to lever open the heavy springs used to latch the “Bean Chutes”) escorting her.
As far as what would happen in a long term grid down? I really don’t know, although the scuttlebutt among the inmates was that there were some who would never walk free. Others would be able to get out. ( there is a scene in Stephen King’s book, “The Stand” that speaks to this.) I do know I have personally seen a standard cell door opened with a plastic pocket comb, and a reinforced cell door literally kicked off its hinges. Prisons are not safe places.
– Papa S.
My home, this home, my families home. All one and the same. This is where my family will come together. I have taken on the challenge of making it doable. Am I finished, no. Have I made significant progress, yes sir.
Ham radio is an important step for us. Knowing if/when VIPs are heading this way, will be critical. Not only for peace of mind, but there are many things to be done. If it truly is, a level 3, changes will have to be implemented. How will ya know, if it’s a level 3? Have ya thought this through? Really thought it through? Yes, security will ratchet up. EDC will change from what it is today. Heads will have to remain on a swivel.
Water storage is in place (short term). Long term water procurement can be accomplished with parts and pieces on site. I’ll wait for a little help, to install. Everything will require a little help. This will have to be a group effort. Thankfully, we’ll have a good group. If they can get here.
I’ve got this all figured out, WRONG!!!!! If this ever happens, it will be the greatest challenge of my life. Am I motivated, oh yea. I do have days where I wonder, am I being foolish for doing all these things? Then, I think of my grand children. They deserve a chance to live, but they’ll have to earn every day of it.
Hoping that the door into level 3 is not immediate, so that group can gather in something less than a full-blown panic.
Just read one of the EMP Commission’s reports LIFE WITHOUT ELECTRICITY: STORM-INDUCED BLACKOUTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EMP ATTACK. Was written in 2003 but not declassified and released until late 2017. Described impacts of storms that caused blackouts and how major impacts were not from weather but lack of electricity to support critical infrastructure. Cities in gridlock and 200 mile long traffic jams. Hospitals without power; emergency food and water depots set up but no way to notify the populace.
Notable was that ALL restoration and recovery efforts required outside help. In a wide-spread grid-down event, like a 400 km EMP over Omaha, “outside help” might only be as near as Alaska, Hawaii, Europe, or Australia, and months or years away. A Carrington-level CME might eliminate all potential outside help.
Hermit us might be onto something; long-term survival may depend on location that offers easier access to water, milder weather, or richer soil for growing.
Report can be found here: