Black Swan event is unexpected

Could A Black Swan Event Bring It All Down?

What is a Black Swan event?

You might have heard the phrase before – ‘Black Swan’ event. But what is it? Here’s my opinion, and concerns…

A black swan is an event, happening, or series of things that come along unexpected. It is a surprise – an aberration – outside of regular expectations. It has severe and extreme impact.

You might reason that the risk of a Black Swan event becomes much higher as it relates to more complicated systems.

The thing is – today’s modern way of life is deeply and utterly dependent upon many, many complicated systems. Never before have so many people had a reliance on so many external (out of their control) systems. Dependencies. And never before have we been at so much risk, because of it.

You might think of it as the spokes on a wheel. When one breaks, so does the integrity of the wheel.

Here’s an example of a black swan event:

A number of years ago, the newly designed Qantas Airbus A380, the largest and most modern commercial aircraft in the world, an aircraft designed with multiple redundant control systems with the latest of modern technology – almost crashed with 459 people on board due to a ‘Black Swan’ event. A single small part within the massive complex system had catastrophically failed…

The defective part resulted in an oil leak. The leak started a fire. The fire caused an engine to explode. The explosion perforated the wing and control surfaces. Multiple hydraulic systems failed. Multiple fuel tanks were ruptured. Fortunately in this particular case there was a total of 100 years flight experience in the cockpit and they were able to land the massive jetliner. However the result could have turned out much worse…

Just think of the countless hours spent on designing that aircraft and the number of people (the best and brightest in the industry) who were involved. Yet, a single unexpected point of failure nearly brought it all down…

Our Vulnerability To The Black Swan

What parallels can we draw from this? What are our vulnerabilities to Black Swan events?

The vulnerabilities cross many areas of technology, infrastructure, supply-chain, economy, our society, our beliefs, and more.

Could a seemingly ‘small’ event be a trigger for bigger ones?

We have designed many technologies and systems which have enabled a massive societal shift. However, we are now literally entirely dependent on them for our survival. What could possibly go wrong?

The more you understand the complex world around you, and when you begin to observe world events (or those closer to home), the more you realize the risks and dangers that surround our modern way of life. Our very existence.

Just look at the extreme impacts from the black swan named ‘Covid’… Health. Supply chains. Economic. Societal. Political.

Planning & Preparedness

There’s lots to think about. A point I’m hoping to get across is to expect the unexpected. Realize that there are Black Swan events waiting around the corner which could have extreme consequences for us all. Plan for it.

But how can we plan for a black swan, if we don’t know what it’s going to be? After all, its very definition is something that’s not yet known, and/or unexpected.

In my opinion, the best we can do is the following. Become more self-reliant. Become more self-sufficient. Reduce reliance upon external systems to the extent possible. Although we all rely on others to varying degrees, the more ‘local’ we can become, the better…

[ Read: Self Reliance & Self Sufficiency – What’s The Difference? ]

[ Read: When The Grid Goes Down – It’s Going To Be ALL LOCAL ]

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37 Comments

  1. Conditions across the world today make a Black Swan event almost inevitable. The question is where and how will it occur, but then it wouldn’t be a Black Swan.

    Your example of a small part in a highly engineered and tested modern airliner failing with catastrophic effect is a perfect example of a complex system failure. The more complex the system the more vulnerable it is. A less obviously complex system was our JIT world trade system and a not so deadly virus (I am not trying to down playing the fact some people had serious, sometimes fatal problems). So in general simpler is better.

    Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

    1. Excellent observation Deep South
      We are watching the world come to a stop before us and the majority of the population doesn’t see it coming.
      The world has been warned many times, over a year ago China told its people to stock up, even LG Brandon told the American people to prepare, and I see very few people doing it. Looks like the Black Swan is in full flight.

  2. the best thing we can do now is to be as self sufficient as possible and not to depend as much on the outside world. it’s impossible to totally disconnect, but have the ability to do for yourselves as much as possible.
    i’m not saying to hide in a hole, but strive to be in a position as to not be as dependent on fuel, food, elect. and other resources for the long term. if nothing happens then we will be better off anyhow in the long run financially. plus you will sleep better at night.
    great article Ken, thanks

    1. Agree on that …….. my target have been debt free check, no mortgage, cash/ metals on hand check preps for bugging in and out check, prepping now for small care packages for outside individuals as a means to secure extra help, move people down the road, just help truly deserving individuals, and lastly to be used for barter for items I require.

  3. I think most of us reading here feel something is coming.
    No clue what, but definitely stuff is off.
    Thats the thing, its even more likely for a small unexpected event to collapse a large complex shaky system.

  4. Like a loop of Dominoes.
    Knock one in the loop past the point of repose and they all come crashing down.
    The likely-hood of the “System Crashing” is only one small piece of the puzzle failing as in that Jet Liner, or about any aspect of ‘Modern Life’, the number of pieces in play now-a-days is mind boggling, add to that the possibility of not only “accidental” failure, but the ongoing string of intentional destruction.
    Anyone here really believe we all are not targeted for failure? Even from our own internal systems in-place. We are nothing more than a vehicle for the Elite to further their own superiority
    Yes the System WILL fail, as all complicated systems have and will continue to do so. Add to that some nut jobs that want to simply ‘Destroy” and you have the “Black Swan” in the making.

    Other than that, tis a BEAUTIFUL day here on Lightning Point for sure.
    Ole Blue says Hi-Y’all

  5. I think it’s already here, It’s not in your face yet but the food situation world wide is growing daily.

    This entire war thing could have been prevented, the US Gov basically controls nato and they have been pushing east ever since WW2 despite agreements.
    Biden could restrict nato at any point to stop this war thing, multinational yes but we own it through equipment, money, personnel, commitment.

    If nato was restricted this all wouldn’t be happening, that and the constant demonization of Russia as the bogyman the left needs to distract us from everything else.
    If our Gov manages to get a real war going they are so much closer to hitting the agenda 2030 goals and given the possibility of Martial law again the left can do near anything they want.. impunity.
    Mainly forced vaxx, massive redistribution of wealth, free speech for them, not us and the possibility of retirement confiscation to fund them/a new war.

    Now it may take a while but biden has already offered billions for energy and food to foreign neighbors for the issues his Admin is/has caused.
    When ever was the government the worlds welfare account? with zero ability under the constitution, zero accountability.

    I expect not long from now biden will start shipping off US grown food in massive quantities causing more problems here at home.
    Inflation makes the left look bad but the problems it causes works for them.
    (problem-reaction-solution)
    That will work well with the near 25 million acres of farmland our gov is paying farmers not to farm.

    I expect it will be a food crisis here at home, to some degree, more covid.
    The left will lose control after november, any wild bs is possible between now and then.

    Bill gates bug loaf? not for me.

    1. Horse,
      it’s been happening here for 2 and a half years. think the frog on the pot of hot water thing. they have been slowly chipping away at our constitution and freedoms for over 2 yr’s now and they will try to use an event to try and polarize the masses into their way of thinking before Nov.. think Lusitania, Pearl Harbor, Gulf of Tonkin, 9/11, supposed WMD’s in Iraq and the Afghanistan thing, we had many good men who fought, were crippled, and died there, all Hero’s, but WTF is wrong with our leadership now. i wish we still had a George S. Patton, a Dwight D. Eisenhower, Omar Bradley, Douglas MacArthur or a Norman Schwarzkopf to lead them.
      what we have leading our troops now is a bad joke, and they are in on the destruction of our country, bought and paid for by China and Russia, never doubt that.
      i look for something major to happen before now and the Nov. elections to divert peoples attentions away from the failed policies here at home and suspend the elections. Ukraine, Russia,Taiwan ? most likely an attack on US soil is my guess.
      i am most often times wrong, i hope i’m wrong again.
      Ya’ll stay safe and stack it to the rafters JIC

    2. Horse,
      There was an article talking about zelinsky saying the FUSA taxpayers needed to fund their operations, pensions wages etc,,,
      Sorta had a chilling effect on me even wanting to show up for work honestly,
      Only thing that runs through my head is Atlas Shrugged and how long?

      1. Kula,
        Zelensky’s asking for $7 billion a month to keep his clown show going. Now think, our in your face debt is at $30.3 trillion, but
        let’s take a look at the real figures…the off-book debt which encompasses welfare, social security and federal retirements etc.
        That paltry figure of $30.3….. nah, it’s a staggering $450 trillion. So how long does it take to keep us running while giving the comedian
        a few billion sheets of TP a month. ……. Just wow!

  6. All, who would of thought that an offshore earthquake would lead to a Tsunami that would eventually lead to a nuclear reactor meltdown. I agree that these complex system are prone to failures for a multitude of reasons and that all of us are much better off becoming better prepared, for whatever might come our way……call it preparedness, resiliency, flexibility….whatever……. just get there any way you can, and quickly, the clock is ticking.

  7. Hm. My understanding of a Black Swan event is that it is planned and executed by somebody or some other country, etc. Not really an accidental failure of parts, for example. However, as of now, today? What will determine a Black Swan event from the supposed activation of foreign terrorist sleeper cells in our country being activated? Our government (Black Swan)? Or foreign governments (possible terrorist sleeper cells)? My mind is all over the board today……lots on my plate.

    1. DJ5280

      Perhaps all of the food and fertilizer plant fires are not accidents? Oh my! ; )

      1. DS,
        I went back and did a tad of checking…2019- two, 2020- 3, 2021- 10 and 2022 (three and a half months in) 14. Original author missed a couple.

  8. O ring on the Challenger. Like sink holes, the erosion underneath and down comes the earth. The small issues folks, but ‘they’ promote fear to keep us from looking in the right direction.
    Remember our postings at the beginning of covid? Wash this, spray that, stay in, stay away. Yep most of us had the fear bug in the beginning too. We awoke, but took some time to decipher the BS.
    Look behind the screen to see what the shadow really is.

    1. I believe the Alphabet agencies have various scenarios preplanned to activate based on different Black Swan events that may occur. These scenarios are designed to blend in with whatever catastrophe occurs and they are designed to grab as much power as quickly as possible and will appear to be a spontaneous reaction. An example is the Patriot Act that was so conveniently passed following 9/11 with overwhelming support until people took off their emotional goggles and realized the rights they had given away to the government in the name of security and patriotism hence the name of the Act so if you’re against it you are NOT a patriot and therefore anti-American.

      They know most Americans are simple minded, easily distracted, will take the path of least resistance and are more terrified of being labelled with a name than of defending their rights. The coming events will appear to be coincidental and will be blamed on Russia, China or White American right-wing conservative groups but in fact they will come from Pennsylvania Ave and the Pentagon.

      Ever wonder why the symbol of US Military strength and power was built in the shape of a Satanic symbol? Nothing in government happens by accident.

    2. Spot on Mrs U
      😎🤙🏻
      Definitely had the rona scare going early on, then something changed, most likely my add and i lost interest, or i started using my horse paste or whatever, but it wasnt a thing for me anymore.
      Theres a lot of BS out there, A WHOLE LOT!

  9. I see that we/USA is in the 2nd. phase of an “Active Measures” attack.

    Destabilize until a crisis occurs. High prices/stock market doing poorly/ invasion of illegal aliens/ crime rates skyrocketing/ food getting short/ now China is shutting down its busiest port/ shortages of fertilizer and seed/ food processing plants burning/ money becoming worthless due to inflation/ Brandon spends money like a drunken sailor/interest rates going up with a possible Recession in the works.

    Not a Black Swann, a plan being carried out to destroy the Republic and replace it with a Marxist Dictatorship.

  10. When I was younger I had to travel a lot overseas and I always tried to have money, food etc with me in case anything happened but sometimes the problem is bigger than your available resources, especially when travelling. I got caught in Europe during Black Friday in 1987 when the stock market went for a major crash but thankfully I was on my way home from an extended deployment and had lots of cash and a paid for return ticket. I also got blindsided by the currency crash in SE Asia in the late 90s again on a long term deployment and was saved by US dollars and a return ticket on a major world carrier.
    A big lesson learned was to try not to travel when things are looking iffy but not totally bad but that is easier said than done. The next best thing was to have cash and one or more plans/routes should things get dicey. I always laid up water and supplies in my hotel room or residence just in case and was happy to pass the stuff on to hotel staff or coworkers if it wasn’t required. These days I prefer to drive in my own well stock vehicle!

  11. Read somewhere that there has not been a single catastrophic event occur in modern history that was not connected to a government or did not have a Harvard graduate in the mix.

      1. Stand my Ground,

        Pretty sure he was not speaking of natural disasters. I believe it was Thomas Sowell, a man I admire greatly, who said it.

    1. As I am certain that you know Mr. Dennis, our Government and our Media have been infiltrated by the Hard Left. Now much of Management of Big Business has too, see Disney/Coke/Burger King as examples. Destabilize then crisis.

  12. I never expected that a virus created in China would kill millions and completely turn sensible people into mental zombies. I never expected Russia to invade Ukraine and expose forever the weakness of an American president. I was totally taken aback when both these events happened – and I am a prepper. I had food stocks, ammo stocks, and even gas. But mentally and emotionally I was caught off guard. That is the worse thing about a surprise – “Black Swan”. It is something you could never dream of happening. When we expect a thing to happen we can mentally and physically prepare. But how do you prepare for a mass shift in thinking? (Which is what the Corona initiated.) How do you prepare for a president controlled by committee and a protective media wall?
    If the Democrats win the midterms I think we can consider this country toast – at least as far as rational thinking and laws go. Herr Biden will go down in history as the president who laid the foundation for the second American Civil War.
    “Whoever is unjust, let him be unjust still. Whoever is righteous, let him be righteous still. Whoever is filthy, let him be filthy still. Listen to the words long written down. When the man comes around.

  13. No one ever brings up the 30 TRiLLION dollar debt. If nothing else, this will bring down America!

    1. Alias,
      Didnt you hear,,
      nancy p lousy said that government printing money like theres no tomorrow doesnt raise the debt, it lowers it, see, nothing to worry about, our betters have spoken,

      Sarc off
      😎🤙🏻

  14. Things that this country needs to know and understand…take a look at the on line National debt clock this is a real time look at actual debt….we have all heard about the can that gets kicked down the road in political arena…….and are blindsided by our non leaders about our national debt……our secured debt ( debt secured by savings bonds) the only one they will ever talk about is at almost 31 trillion in addition there is the unsecured debt (that’s the one all the freebies come from) which now stands at 168 trillion together our total debt is approaching 200 trillion, that should be the a warning to all of us…..I remember back in the last year of Obama’s kingship there were two people running for office that talked about our total debt Herman Cain and president Donald Trump. We are duped daily with the Potomac two step about the total debt of 200 trillion dollars, people this is a number we will never overcome and the corrupt political machines will never discuss.

  15. Good food for thought, Ken. What about multiple black swans? Sure looks like that’s what we’re dealing with. Except I don’t think they’re coming out of nowhere; the WEF, and all they represent, are the very definition of ‘crimes against humanity’. They either directly create the crises, cause them through their proxies in various agencies around the world, or take advantage of truly organic crises and make them worse. I still believe our country’s destruction is the focus, because of what we stand/once stood for. A free Republic is anathema to global totalitarian control, and must be brought down for them to succeed. A black swan can only come out of nowhere if we’re not paying attention, and most on MSB have been paying attention for a long time. I don’t think the evil globalists will achieve their goals in the end, but it’s gonna be a rough ride for a bit. Self-sufficiency to the extent possible is key.

    We had a positive black swan event (white swan?) yesterday. I over looked two plantings of carrots in last fall’s harvest. While prepping more beds yesterday, we dug up a whole mess of them! They overwintered fine, and taste wonderful. Don’t know how I missed those, but now I know carrots will overwinter here.

      1. Lauren,

        Yup, already left some. Did the same for onions and beets. Seed saving is the way!

  16. To the democrats, the ultimate and inevitable black swan event would be an uprising (civil war) that would bring all their careful planning for a communist dictatorship down.

  17. I’m in agreement with Tom Tucker. Our country has gone so far down the slippery slope that nothing short of a Second Civil War by conservative patriots will stop the slide. The first step, though, is to do a clean sweep of the upcoming ’22 November elections to oust every last Dumbocrap politician out of their jobs, so we can put them in prison for their many crimes against the state. Pelousy and Schumer go first! Flushing the corrupt judiciary at every city, state, and federal level is step two. Step three is to ferret out every Deep State bureaucrat and hang them from every street lamp in WDC as an object lesson to their fellow traitors. The Civil War part will be the delousing of the woke educators from grade school to university, the MSM and their communist ownership, and the Dumbocrap mayors in every leftist-run city in America… That should be good for starters…

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