Will An Upcoming Black Swan Event Bring It All Down?

a-black-swan-event

What is a Black Swan event?

You’ve probably heard the phrase before – ‘Black Swan’. But what is it?

It is an event that (especially today) you should comprehend, because it could be the one that might ‘bring it all down’…

A Black Swan event:

1. It is a surprise – an aberration – outside of regular expectations.
2. It has severe and extreme impact.

After it has occurred, we tend to explain that it was predictable – but only ‘after the fact’…

You might say that the risk of a Black Swan event becomes much higher as it relates to more complicated systems. The thing is – today’s modern way of life is deeply and utterly dependent upon many, many complicated systems. Never, ever before have so many people had a reliance on so many external (out of their control) dependencies, and never before have we been at so much risk because of it.

A single Black Swan event has the potential to break the system as we know it, and we don’t even know it yet…

Here’s an example:

 
A number of years ago, the newly designed Qantas Airbus A380, the largest and most modern commercial aircraft in the world, an aircraft designed with multiple redundant control systems with the latest of modern technology almost crashed with 459 people on board due to a ‘Black Swan’ event. A single small part within the massive complex system had catastrophically failed…

The defective part resulted in an oil leak. The leak started a fire. The fire caused an engine to explode. The explosion perforated the wing and control surfaces. Multiple hydraulic systems failed. Multiple fuel tanks were ruptured. Fortunately in this particular case there was a total of 100 years flight experience in the cockpit and they were able to land the massive jetliner. However the result could have turned out much worse…

Just think of the countless hours spent on designing that aircraft and the number of people (the best and brightest in the industry) who were involved. Yet, a single unexpected point of failure nearly brought it all down…

 
What parallels can we draw from this? What are our vulnerabilities to Black Swan events?

The vulnerabilities cross many areas of technology, infrastructure, supply-chain, economy, our society, our beliefs, and more.

Could a seemingly ‘small’ event be a trigger for bigger ones?

We fool ourselves into thinking that we have it all under control. We think we’re so smart – with so many smart people having designed systems that are so technologically superior (for example) such that at worst we might only see an occasional ‘hiccup’. Right?

Indeed we have designed many technologies and systems which have enabled a massive societal shift, change, (growth?), whereby we are now literally and entirely dependent on them for our survival. What could possibly go wrong?

The more you understand the complex world around you and when you begin to observe world events (or those closer to home) as they may relate to a potential Black Swan, the more you realize the dangers that surround our modern way of life and our very existence.

It’s not ‘just’ technology dependencies and risks, but societal as well. Just look at the societal upheaval going on in the world right now. Look at the extreme level of distrust in government (for example). Look at the strains of immigration. Look at the clash of religions. There are so many societal related risks as well… Could a seemingly small societal event become a Black Swan event that brings it all down?

There’s lots to think about. A point I’m hoping to get across is to expect the unexpected and realize that there are Black Swan events waiting around the corner which will have extreme consequences for us all. All is not what it seems…

 
Lets hear your opinion of Black Swan events or potential examples thereof?

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98 Comments

  1. Morning, Everyone,

    Re: Black Swan events, one that I am concerned about is a major earthquake on the West Coast, Yellowstone and or New Madrid. My heart goes out to those people who are on or near those areas.

    Take it for what you will or not at all, but I had a telling dream last August 2015 and it came in the form of a short verse:

    America you have crossed the point of no return
    You will reap what you have sown
    In the same way you have treated my little children
    so you will be treated
    Your borders will be broken and flushed with water

    This is a heavy word, but I believe we will be able to weather the coming storms more successfully as we prepare
    And just a personal word of encouragement to you: Keep the Faith

    Be strong and blessed today~

    1. August of last year. I’d like to hear more about this dream, if you’re willing. Have you had others? I had one about two years ago, just a flash of standing on my porch and watching the city burn as an army marched through. Gave me chills last 4th of July when I watched the fireworks blooming along the same path as that army.

  2. As a young man just out of high school I worked as a stock clerk in a retail chain on the west coast. I worked my way up the chain into a management positions. My attitude was to treat my employers assets as if they were my own. As I was transferred to different locations my reputation for security measures became known by my ability to recognize weak points of security at each location that resulted in catching employee theft.

    If we mentally place ourselves in a position of someone that is a terrorist, we can anticipate where they might strike next.

    Food for thought!! Multiple major cities all in one time zone at precisely the exact same time major accidents on the major hwys. of each city happen. As the traffic typically does, movement stops! Panel vans enter on ramps a half mile from each accident loaded with armed terrorists, the van stops and the terrorists get out and start shooting people in their cars as they sit defenseless!!!

    Who would want to go into to work the next day???

    The use of fear to manipulate our actions and accepting the response of those that govern us just might be the master plan all along!!! I think this has been already used globally by Govt Black Ops!!!

    Staying aware of our surroundings will also help us!! Don’t let fear control your actions!!!

    I’m NOT a Terrorist, but if I can think of the above scenario, so can they!!! They want to use our freedoms to attack us!! So that those that Govern have justification to take those freedoms away for our protection!!

    Put your thinking hats on folks!! I’m sure they could use other ways than this to came at us!!

    Stay aware, Pray for Divine Guidance and Prep!!!

    1. Interesting idea, and unfortunately I could see our fabulous elected officials clamping down on security on the freeways and making everyone who uses them get some kind of GPS identifier. Our gov’t is nothing if not security conscious (i.e., opportunistic).

      1. Yes, but only in reaction after the event, not trying to prevent such an event. Sadly the passage of the laws already have been passed on how to react to such an event. Its like they know its going to happen and are just waiting for it.

        Example: The Director of Homeland Security during Bush gave an interview to the El Paso Times that stated they knew middle easterners and African extremist were crossing the southern border and the years since then the numbers have only grown!!

        Their excuse of being politically correct is more important than protecting the citizens that are here is just that, an excuse to allow a tragic event to happen so they can grab more control.

        Unless WE THE PEOPLE stand up and say that WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH, them pretending to be incompetent will continue. They have proven many times by their lack of action that their priority is NOT to protect the homeland!!!

        OK!! Where does that register on the RANT O Meter!!!

        1. I won’t argue with you, but they can’t put such a thing into place without an event to trigger it–unless it happened over a period of generations (which is actually happening) there would be such a scream that they’d pull back and say they were just kidding. If they want their agenda to go forward in their lifetimes (and while they are in a position to profit from it) there has to be a trigger.

    2. After 9-11 and still to this day. I tend to play “if I were in their shoes and wanted to cause mass casualties and terror what would I do”.

      To be honest I have never thought of the traffic accident scenario. But it is very plausible. The amount of injuries could be staggering and basically no help would be able to get there with the traffic backed up. The only help would be those like us who carry. Although a handgun against a AK or AR is not the best odds. But if there are enough people armed then it could even things out.

      I always looked at the financial part of it. Soft targets such as malls, sporting events or any other large gatherings of people.

      The worst scenario that I fear are schools. That one scares the heck out of me. My wife works at a school and we have discussed this in detail and tried to prepare the best we can but still stay with in the laws.

      Adapt and Overcome.

  3. Mine is this the POWER GRID one EMP or CMP and EVERYTHING we know in the modern world and we are F’D! The power grid goes out for even a short time like a month and the world and our country will be riots and under martial law and if this happens with OBLOWME IN OFFICE we ARE STUCK WITH HIM!

    1. @ Kevin within the last month, 2 electrical grids have been brought down. 1st one was in Ukraine and the other just happened recently in Israel. IF u don’t believe me Google it for yourself. That too is my biggest fear. Light out game over for everyone.

  4. I think there are so many known predictable events that could bring on a disaster we can prepare for, but it’s the ones we DON”T know about that may be the catalyst and NOT be prepared for.

    Sometimes we have to stretch far beyond our imagination, such as a black hole event, alternate universes clashing, or a dark matter event that affects our world. Of course, scientific theories are just that, theories that only a few know about.

    I have witnessed many unexplained wonders in my lifetime, and because I know there is life after death, I don’t spend a lot of time on unknown fears being fearful, but being curious. I try to understand and learn about our complex world and universe and as many know they are in constant chaos. I can only prepare for what I know as a “result” of a black swan event, learn to live independently, be a help to others in need, and to enjoy and embrace life as precious as it is. The rest is up to God.

    1. But the fabulous thing is that they’re NOT in chaos. The deeper you go the more structured everything appears. Even chaos is structured, not random. It’s amazing. I love looking at supposedly random elements and finding the order there.

      I too KNOW that there is life after death. There’s no need to be afraid of that. What I’m afraid of is what comes between, but with a great deal of help from our Father I’ll get through whatever is thrown at me.

      Preparing for the unknown is a matter of following the impressions and promptings we’re given. We may not know the precise events or circumstances, but this last year I was guided to get my 401k out of the market. Tomorrow I’ll be closing on a property using a self-directed IRA. When things fall together this fast it’s because there’s a deadline. In my life it’s always been that way. I was directed to set up a water catchment system and get a water filter–and when that happened, the surging urgency went away. I’m still getting ready, because something big is coming.

  5. so…would the Challenger Disaster, apparently caused by an O-Ring failure (fancy term for a washer?), qualify as a Black Swan Event?

    1. @ Anon
      For the people that were on the Challenger and those families left behind, I would have to say “Yes”.

      It all goes back to the description of what constitute a SHTF, EOTWAWKI, or Black Swan Event. Does it have to be the end of the world for the entire world? or just a single person? Maybe just a group of people?

      NRP

      1. NRP and ANON, when the shuttle blew up the whole County(Brevard) was affected. They suspended all plans/programs/launches immediately. All businesses tied to the space program and the Companies that were supporting them with services and supplies took a huge hit the very first week.(I had ties with that area.) It was instant FINANCIAL “DEPRESSION” for the County and the people who worked/lived there. Lasted quite awhile.
        So yea, for them it was a Black Swan event.

        1. Bill

          thanks for further explanation. Somehow, I had not previously heard the term “Black Swan Event”.

          I think too, besides the things you mentioned, many in the United States and the world, experienced a sorrow, because this Launch, with the “civilian” school teacher was to herald a new and safer dawn of “space flight”. That it ended so graphically/and publicly (to my mind) shocked the entire world. The world lost some measure of trust, in the “possibility”…

          1. Anon, you are right about it affecting people all over.All the school kids in Brwevard County were outside watching the launch live when disaster struck.I remember being told that parents went to pick up their kids early from school to console /talk with their upset children.People never seemed to feel the same about the space program after that.

          2. yes..also, I seem to recall it had a HUGE t.v. audience.

            and
            you’re right

            don’t think anyone ever felt quite the same about the Space Program. Anyone’s Space Program. Of any country.

      2. Bill Jenkins Horse…

        I believe (and wonder what you think) that this
        Zika Virus / GMO Mosquito (possible) travesty (for I more and more believe they are connected), will be/is another Black Swan Event.

        Massive release of GMO Mosquitoes, supposed to reduce mosquito population by 90 per cent (gee did anyone wonder what the mosquito eating critters such as bats and hummingbirds were going to eat), and a incredibly stupid lack of acknowledgement of the world wide environmental availability of Tetracycline (the limiting factor)…

        I am suspicious that the Microcephaly tragedies are connected.

        Supposedly already noted to have spread to everywhere in Americas but Chili and Canada.. Today I read in news that it (Zika) has been found in Chili, and expert in Canada came out to say, there is no certain knowledge it is not in Canada/will not easily spread in Canada..(no one has researched this in Canada).

        Seems like Brazil was Ground Zero in world wide tragedy/ population control (who is going to choose to get pregnant until this is sorted out? If women in many countries do get pregnant the easy abortions/morning after pills will likely be used more.)(not much of an option in Brazil, these two, so pregnancies will likely not be terminated there..)

        at any rate, I find this quite possibly a significant event for populations….

        1. Anon,that’s a good question.I have discussed this with research scientists that I have met.They have been releasing irradiated(sterile)male fruit flies for years into the wild to help control fruit flies.They damage/ruin a billion plus dollars worth of crops each year around the world.The problem now is that the wild females have learned that the sterilized male fruit flies pheremones are a little different from non sterilized males so they are not mating with the sterile ones.Nature always finds a way around what man tries to do.
          Right now in Hawaii there is a Dengue fever outbreak.Weird thing is people are spreading it .People who have Dengue fever give it to a mosquito who bites them. Then the mosquito bites someone else and then they are infected. They figure the disease was brought in by someone from another pacific island.

          Hawaiians/American Indians were decimated by diseases brought in by first contacts with Europeans.Their bodies had never encountered these diseases so they had no immunity to them.One of the last Kings/Queens of Hawaii died from a contracted disease while visiting England.
          My point is that one of these new exotic diseases could indeed decimate our population.The mere threat of it could push them to implement the National Pandemic Outbreak Plan long before it hits our shores.

          That’s why I believe if you call your self a prepared person you better read/understand the implications of the plan.

          It would be the one plan that would get most Americans to willingly comply with.The fear of a “plague” (real or imagined ) wiping out your family.The movie “Contagion” was a fair portrayal of what would go on.

          It’s the scenario I have prepped for the most because most of the other scenarios will probably show up in the course of this particular one.
          This scenario will keep you up nights:America is under a pandemic outbreak emergency and a EMP event happens.Now that would be a 2 headed Black Swan event.

    1. @ cossack55
      Now your talking a Black Swan Event…. 317? holy poop, this is NOT good people.
      NRP

          1. Looks like it was in the 700’s in January of last year. This might be a better indicator, since it’s not run by a committee but based on actual numbers. If you look at the 5 year chart it’s had some major dips before but never quite this low. I wish I could see the chart for the life of the index, but right now it’s at its lowest point since 2000.

      1. 317!? That kind of makes a person’s stomach clench a little. Think that I will go buy a few more grocery’s today

      2. A few rumors are floating about that shippers, and manufacturers of products that are loaded on those ships are demanding payment in Chinese Yuan before the ships leave port coming to the USA! If these have any truth to them, the collapse of the US dollar is eminent!

        Personally I think the DOW will be manipulated to not crash until after the Super Bowl. Too much Money is to change hands for commercials, betting, travel for them that have power for it to crash before then.

        1. I think the DOW will last until the new president. if we have one, will be sworn in around April 2017. If not then it could happen late October 2016 as a means to declare martial law because of the riots and suspend the elections.

          1. @Name change for this reply
            Excuses me? April?? HAHAHAHA
            How about Friday, Jan. 20, 2017 at Noon Eastern Time
            God we are in trouble, No wonder you changed your name for the reply……

            NRP

          2. I seriously doubt the election will take place!! Obumer will not give up his power!! Martial Law will be implimented very soon due to a combination of a horific terrorist attacks causing the economic collapse, plus multiple hurricanes blamed on El Nino, west coast earthquake. The IMF will then remove the US Dollar as the reserve currency and replace it the Chinese Yuan. Once our civil war has casualties and weakened us as a nation, UN troops will be brought in to mop up the mess.

            The only chance we have would be for all our troops to return home to help organize the rest of us into a fighting force. Obumer this week has made it public that he will not allow this to happen by increasing troop strength in Syria and staying in Afganistan for years, breaking another promise.

          3. Never look at the market indexes, they are manipulated, they don’t truly represent what’s going on in our economy. Our economy is failing, very soon we will see “something big” and “unexpected”. Scoff if you will, but know this, once it begins it will not stop and each passing week it will only get worse. Repent, believe in JESUS, turn to God with your whole heart while you still can.

    2. The emotion meter for the stock market just swung from “extreme fear” to “fear.” Any guesses what it will do over the weekend? :) JK

      1. It will depend if anything develops out of Russia placing the Missle Units on the highest alert. For an early peek check the N225(Japanese market) before going to bed Sunday night!

  6. What I wonder is Who created it, for what reason , what outcome are they trying to acheive, who will they try to blame, & etc?

  7. Remember the North Koreans are now getting ready to launch a rocket, right after its tests of their new atomic devices. The rocket is supposed to be capable of putting things in orbit, and is capable of performing as an ICBM. I wonder if that idea of the North Korean’s EMP weapon might not be involved? My greatest fear is an EMP event..and all this recent activity in the Pacific Northwest..with the rushed increases in Anti-Sat capability. I think we are going to try and knock it down, if we do not like its path.

      1. Testing of ground based Anti-Sat weapon systems. The urgent order to increase the ground launched aircraft capable of anti-sat by 30 planes to augment those already in place. Last time I checked, a special F-15 was fitted with a missile capable of hitting incoming icbms..or low orbit objects. The plane flies as high as it can..then launches. Other activity includes special aircraft fitted with our newest electronic sensors for targeting.

  8. What about the combination of all these events happening within 4 to 7 days and including China making the announcement the their currency is the only one being backed by gold.

    This would surely over whelm everyone and would almost guaruntee the start of WWIII, because the bankers won’t allow these losses without a fight!!!

    1. I’m sure Russia would jump on the gold backed Ruble in a heartbeat. They too have been buying a lot of gold for a few years.

    2. If every country backed their money with gold we wouldn’t NEED a world reserve currency. Gold would be the currency of choice, its value set by supply and demand rather than a financial committee. While China (and Russia) would likely be the only country that has a stable (asset backed) currency, it’s not going to happen. Once one country announces that its money is now backed by physical assets, every country in the world would jump on the bandwagon. Massive waves of inflation and deflation would result, worldwide, continuing until the actual value of goods and services had been attained. No one would be in control of the money any longer, and TPTB don’t want that.

  9. I have believed for several years that there will be a planned event to intentionally cause disastrous results. I believe this planned event, a Black Swan, will set the stage to usher in Obama’s martial law.

    There are so many failing systems within the BIG system here that TPTB can use this planned event to point blame elsewhere rather than within the system of corruption/greed itself. Blame can go to the global economy, terrorism, the oil glut, maybe even the “to big to fail” derivatives-enterprise (although I doubt that).

    I have difficulty believing that the far-left “Democrats” will give up their King’s crown easily and foresee an intentional Black Swan event that will appear before election time.

    So many systems are failing now and so many are being intentionally destroyed that it becomes apparent that there is an plan to bring it all down. We have an incredible number of big threats staring at us: a failing economy, a failed Presidency, a society forced into socialism, a federalized school system, a socialized medical system, the destruction of morals/religion/family values, an illegal alien problem, a National security terrorism problem, a government WROL, and so on.

    The constant onslaught of corruption while the traitors keep pushing to steal our Constitutional rights is the scream-at-our-face, but there just aren’t enough people actively involved in righting the wrongs. However, the upcoming elections are proving to Washington and TPTB that We The People, no matter WHICH side, know that ‘the establishment’ has got to go. Does anyone here REALLY believe this will be tolerated? Look what Obama and his cronies did to the Tea Party by using the IRS. Does anyone here really believe King Obama and his palace will be overthrown in November???

    Sad to say this but the traitorous jack-booted-thugs are everywhere and they are entrenched in Washington. We have a corrupt FELON who is running for President alongside a self-avowed Socialist — this is enough proof for most civilizations to realize this Nation is going down unless We The People get more involved.

    We the Little People will not be allowed to have the power to change ANYTHING until there is a revolution. Historically, it has been proven that real change does not occur by changing politicians. And though many here are in agreement with much of what I say, this comment, like many others I leave, will remain on-its-own, further proving American complacency (or fear) because no one actually does much more than talk and it is this lack of fortitude and courage that is allowing the takeover of our Nation to occur.

    So with that, I’ll say that it is my belief that there will be an orchestrated event, a Black Swan, that will set into motion, a domino effect that will break the system. Our entire economic system has been artificially propped up during the destructive phase of this great undoing — we are in a deep Recession, proven through the loss of our goods (manufacturing). The TV bobble-heads keep pointing to our measly gains but that is only due to our services — most of which is part and parcel of the sham of “health care” ie Obamacare and that “tax” forced onto We The People.

    No system is perfect and not every situation or condition can be planned for. If left on its own, under the control of TPTB, we will remain one event away from a much larger event. Will the next event be “the one”? Why even ask these things? It is inevitable unless enough good people stop the momentum and end the takeover of our Nation.

    1. IMHO if it looks like the Donald is going to win there will be an event,,, TPTB have no intention of letting him set up shop in the WH. And this is both of the so called sides (we know there’s no difference).

  10. A Black Swan event does not have to be a total catastrophe for everyone, but can be one for a family if the Breadwinner for the family suddenly loses his/her source of income or health. That one single event can devastate a family. The ‘Fickle Finger of Fate’ (‘Dangling Digit of Destiny’) can strike instantaneously to anyone, at any time. Life is a Roller-Coaster: enjoy the ride when you’re going up, because the bottom can fall out at anytime!

  11. what about release of GMO Mosquitoes in Brazil, starting couple of years ago, now there is Zika….According to WHO .. explosive Zika spreading like wildfire…

    maybe there is a connection…release of GMO Mosquitoes may be “Black Swan”

    1. Just did some research on that, and the information is quite interesting. They assume a 3 – 4% survival rate for those larvae with the GM fathers, but that 3 – 4% would be the strongest and have a level of built-in immunity. If the next generation’s survival rate is 8%, and then 16%, in five years you have a breed of mosquito that is designed to spread these diseases. We’re at the 4 year mark right now.

      1. even more interesting about the survival potential

        I have read that to survive they need tetracycline. Thinking being, released in wild, they will have no tetracycline and terminate.

        however,
        tetracycline (I read somewhere)
        came originally from the soil..so
        also
        with the amount of the drug consumed, there is a fair bit of tetracycline released in to the environment – sewage, irrigation with sewage sludge, etc

        so…may be no limiter on them at all

        1. Tetracyclene is one of the most common antibiotics, especially among livestock. It’s in the air, the water, the soil–it’s in the environment in large enough quantities to give the strongest of the new “breed” the needed boost. Livestock are given small daily doses of tetracyclene to keep them healthy in a decidedly unhealthy environment. And it doesn’t break down as easily as most antibiotics (hardly even affected by heat), so what leaves the livestock barns is used in the fields, washed into the waterways, etc.

          Think they thought this one through?

          1. no…

            I recall when I first read about the Tetracycline “limiter” …

            I was rather shocked….

            If I knew about Tetracycline’s abundance (and you have mentioned more)….
            it hardly seems like they “didn’t know”…

          2. Scientists can be remarkably dense when it comes to possibilities that might limit their theories.

          3. apparently so…

            from the Washington Post…
            re one of the GMO critters (there is more than one)

            “Oxitec feeds its genetically modified mosquitoes tetracycline so they can survive and reproduce in the lab. For pest control purposes, mature males carrying the self-destruct gene are gathered up and released into the wild to mate with females. Offspring who inherit the gene will die without the tetracycline antidote, causing the mosquito population to drop drastically — and hopefully with it, the threat of disease.”

            From Health Map – Disease Daily
            “Brazil Rolls Out GM Mosquito Farms
            Jul 18, 2012

            Brazil has opened its first-ever, large-scale genetically modified mosquito farm

            is expected to produce millions of GM insects each month.

            The mosquitoes are engineered to need the antibiotic tetracycline to develop beyond adolescence.

            Tetracycline aside, if this in any way “worked”, there should be few mosquitoes left in Brazil…Doesn’t appear so.

          4. Found another interesting idea on this topic. Fruit flies have also been GM’d, but there are small differences in the pheromones and the female wild fruit flies have “learned” not to want the modified fruit flies. Nature finds a way. :)

          5. Lauren

            EXACTLY what I have wondered/thought might happen.

            “nature finds a way”….

  12. The Plunge Protection Team is in full force today for Wall street….TPTB are concerned for a black swan event???

    1. The Stock market today and yesterday is artificialy sustained, just you like state by the banks that make up the Federal Reserve. Using digital dollars on stocks that are bought and sold in mili-seconds based on their pricing the day before or even in the same day!! They are brokers that get away with telling their clients one thing and privately do the opposite to make a profit!!

      Until their system of trading is overhauled it will continue! The politicians were bought off to repeal the Glaas/Stegal Act that prevented banks to use depositers money in the stock market. Most Americans don’t know this, or the banks runs would have already taken place!!!!

      Hope everyone has invested in barter supplies!!

      1. Most people have no clue that their savings really arent theirs anymore when they deposit it in a bank, they dont realize that under the new rules the deposits are an insturment owned by the financial institution and that there are other entiries in line to get the money before depositors in the event of a crash of some sort, makes me glad im broke,, nothing much to lose!

  13. Here’s one that happend in the past. A single assassination triggered WWI. Who would have thought that it could?

    BI

  14. The last part of #1 definition above certainly begets other questions before we can agree whether an event is a black swan event. Outside of whose regular expectations? Mainstream America? Preppers? People who comment on or lurk this web site? Government experts?

    It seems so subjective. Personally, I think one person’s Black Swan Event is another persons “I told you so” event. I can’t think of any particular event that would qualify as a Black Swan event because if I did and posted it here and provided you with the documentation to back up my assertion or prediction then, if the event happened it could not have been a Black Swan event because, thousands of people would have foreknowledge of that event.

    On the other hand, if I predicted something that came to pass, that initially was generally accepted to be a Black Swan event, the NSA analysts would search every nook and cranny of the internet for key words and then find my post and have me arrested for being the terrorist that caused the event because I knew about it and nobody else did and we probably all know how that crap ends. Oh well… I’ve always had a problem with the term “Black Swan Event”… I’d prefer simply SHTF, it paints with a broader stroke. LOL!! I think I need to go back out into the garden.

  15. Natural occurring BS event- An unseen large meteorite/ asteroid, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or a 8.0 + earthquake in a very populated area.

    Man-Made BS event- Most likely it will be a False-Flag event that will trigger CWII….

  16. Here is just a thought. Did our Black Swan event just happen a few days ago when LaVoy Finicum was shot in Oregon?

    The FBI just released the video of the encounter. From what I have read he was the leader of the Oregon Miltia, very respected and had a big following.

    I watched the video several times and it disturbed me. How do you think it affected those that followed and new him? The comments from a few sites I checked out will make you wonder if this is the “shot heard around the world”?

    Is there retaliation around the corner? Imagine the chain of events that could come from it.

    I can see this growing in massive waves. Similar to a drop in a pool of water.

    If you haven’t seen the video let me know and I can post a couple of links. It is disturbing and really makes you wonder, he had his hands up but looked like he might have been going for a weapon or had he already be shot in the abdomen and was reacting to the wound?

    I would like to read the autopsy report but that may not be 100% true either. If the FBI wants to clear this as a justified shooting. Then they need to release body cam and vehicle video footage.

    Adapt and Overcome.

    1. Sorry forgot to mention that the video footage they released was from a FBI plane or helicopter. No audio.

      Adapt and Overcome.

        1. Probably correct. But in my eyes he was assassinated.

          Feds could have shut them down peacefully in a week or so.

          Total BS. He was labeled a threat and they had to exterminate him. Waco, Ruby Ridge it’s all the same.

          Adapt and Overcome.

  17. Xerox has the government contract to reload all the ebt/snap cards in the nation. If they just decided one morning not to reload, then the ugimmes from coast to coast would unload on us. This could very definitely be a Black Swan event, along with all the others you folks have mentioned. But once the people are in the streets there would be no turning off the fireworks. thanks

    1. If this happens it won’t just be the EPT cards! SS deposits and VA benefits will also stop!!

  18. Would Obama getting elected (TWICE!) be considered a black swan event? Because that sure as heck has caused a “severe and extreme” impact!
    But just when you think things can’t get any worse; you realize they can! So pray for the best but prepare for the worst.
    God be with all of us!

    1. No, in that sense the “black swan” would either be O refusing to leave office or running for a third term and winning. And yes, I am well aware that this would be illegal, but he doesn’t care. He’s already said he’s willing to run again, and I think he’s just waiting for the right moment (Billary in jail, maybe?) to announce it.

  19. I feel the same to some extent. “Let’s just get it over with.” Then I start looking around at all the people who would die, good people most of them, so I flip back and forth between the two extremes. “I know it’s coming, but please not today.” I keep hoping there’ll be time for more people to wake up and reverse the tide.

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