10 Global Disasters


Guest Note: by P.T.

If you factor all the probable events that would cause global effects, you may end up with a list as follows.

10. A star 3.5 light years away going supernova (gamma ray burst)
9. Massive CME from Sun
8. Methane deposits causing rapid warming
7. Middle East war (non nuke)
6.North Korea invading the South
5.Cascadia fault 9.8 earthquake
4. Asteroid or comet impact 1 mile plus in diameter
3. Nuke war
2. Worldwide pandemic
1. Yep you guessed it a VEI 8+ Eruption

For the record it is estimated that 80% of the worlds population could not survive a “super eruption” longer than 6 months ( off the recorded stats from WHO). In the west we do not make our food, we buy it. I know you are aware of the social unrest it would cause, and wars over resources.

Probabilities 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10 all have happened before and will happen again.

Ken adds: The simple ability to grow some of your own food, if implemented by enough people, would go a long way towards increasing the odds during some types of disasters, at least in urban and rural areas. A huge problem of course, is the city – and city dwellers who for the most part are unable to do this. It’s just the way it is…

From this list, I often consider a Worldwide Pandemic to be in the realm of possibilities as one of the highest and probable casualty risks during our lifetime, given our worldwide travel and the rapid increase of drug resistance. A Middle East war and perhaps a limited nuclear war I also believe to be a higher possibility, the effects of which would be economically immense worldwide, while the casualties would obviously be regional to their locations.

Who is to say though… a massive solar flare and CME could rip at any moment, rendering our electrical gird useless for months to years – enough time to inflict massive casualties. Or the Yellowstone super volcano could explode and cover most of the US with ash and drastically lower world temperatures for years – causing extreme reduction to world food resources.

…all food for thought

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  1. Extremely likely or in reality : certainties.
    No.1 on my list would be Pandemic
    No.2 is CME
    No.3 is War.
    No.4 is equatorial VEI 7 you don’t need an 8 to create large global disruption.

    The rest on your list are statistical “in the fullness of time scenario’s”.

  2. There are no stars within 3.5 light years of Earth – Alpha Centauri is the closest at 4.3 light years, and isn’t big enough to nova, let alone supernova. Nonetheless, a gamma ray burst from much, much further away could wipe all life off of the planet in a matter of days (your cells – all of them – could literally lose integrity within 3 days, for example).

    As to the others, I think that there will be a Mideast war within 2 years, and if it becomes too destructive then the price of oil will go to somewhere between 200 and 300 buck/bbl. That’ll kill hundreds of millions, as the sheer cost of fertilizing, harvesting, processing and transporting food will become so high that the poorer countries will not be able to afford it.

    Pandemic is always a possibility – there are lots of choices, and we’re so packed together and transportation is so easy to literally the other side of the globe that it’ll spread fast.

    I’m very concerned about a severe CME or an EMP Pearl Harbor. Both would destroy the grid (or largely so), wiping out 80%-90% of the country. In the case of a CME, it would affect far more than just the US. None of the Western countries (incl. Japan, though not really in the West) can survive the instantaneous transport to the 1800s – we haven’t the tools or the knowhow to live like our ancestors, and don’t have the food reserves to last until the first harvest even if we had the tools and knowhow. That’s a case of “last one in the stewpot wins,” as another blogger likes to say.

  3. Hello, I live in Fort Lauderdale FL and I here there is a chance for a tsunami that could reach 650 ft I would like to know how many feet will can it reach inland and will I be safe at all

  4. check your areas elevation. i doubt you are above that elevation. i am 1000 mi inland and less than 400.

  5. Sondra, A 650’ tsunami in Florida? Only if an asteroid the size of Manhattan Island hits The Bahamas. If you’re truly concerned about this, the Plains or the Rockies might be the place for you. Anything causing a tsunami that size near Florida, however, would probably be an extinction-level event for humanity, so why worry?

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