long term SHTF

“Any short term event is very survivable, even for the unprepared. Only the very stupid or very unlucky will die in a short term event.”

That quote was from a comment here many years ago regarding items that would disappear first following a SHTF event.

It got me to thinking about the following question:

If the event that occurs will clearly result in long term SHTF (even clearly realized by the unprepared), what will be the likely order of unfolding events and timeline?

What will be the items to disappear first?

What will “the unprepared” and the mainstream population do first, then next, and so on…

What will the “prepared” do first, then next, and so on…

If we can somewhat hypothesize or predict the actions and events following a major SHTF surely to be long lasting, then it might help some of us to further prepare ourselves.

We’ve tackled this issue many times here on the blog.
This time I’m presenting it from a slightly different angle.

By the way, the same commenter that I quoted above, went on to say the following:

“If it is long term, it will be all about security (knowledge and weapons), water, food, and power (heat in a cold environment primarily)… In that order.”

Do you agree?

 
What’s the timeline?
– Event
– Awareness & Realization of its magnitude
– Self assessment to deal with it
– Actions taken

Assuming the unprepared become aware of its long term magnitude, what actions will they take? What will they seek out first?

What will they be doing after week 1?
Week 2?
3?
?

 
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