Any Short Term Event Is Survivable – But Long Term For The Unprepared?

long term SHTF

“Any short term event is very survivable, even for the unprepared. Only the very stupid or very unlucky will die in a short term event.”

That quote was from a comment here many years ago regarding items that would disappear first following a SHTF event.

It got me to thinking about the following question:

If the event that occurs will clearly result in long term SHTF (even clearly realized by the unprepared), what will be the likely order of unfolding events and timeline?

What will be the items to disappear first?

What will “the unprepared” and the mainstream population do first, then next, and so on…

What will the “prepared” do first, then next, and so on…

If we can somewhat hypothesize or predict the actions and events following a major SHTF surely to be long lasting, then it might help some of us to further prepare ourselves.

We’ve tackled this issue many times here on the blog.
This time I’m presenting it from a slightly different angle.

By the way, the same commenter that I quoted above, went on to say the following:

“If it is long term, it will be all about security (knowledge and weapons), water, food, and power (heat in a cold environment primarily)… In that order.”

Do you agree?

What’s the timeline?
– Event
– Awareness & Realization of its magnitude
– Self assessment to deal with it
– Actions taken

Assuming the unprepared become aware of its long term magnitude, what actions will they take? What will they seek out first?

What will they be doing after week 1?
Week 2?

More: When It Hits The Fan – What You Have Will Be All There Is…
More: If The Lights Went Out In America
More: When Resupply Breaks Down


  1. We are heading into hurricane season real soon, every year its been nothing or close but not enough to get peoples attention, so the majority say it wont happen here,

    Same goes for a tsunami, has been decades, many many decades since one hit the state, the last one wiped out everything on the north shores of all the islands, 56 i think it was, and again we have had close calls, warnings, even evacuations but nothing, so people say it wont happen.

    But what if these things do happen?

    EVERYTHING here comes in by boat or air for some stuff, but for food, the vast majority comes by sea. People have no idea just how delicate the infrastructure is that supports that activity. Actually most people are just oblivious to almost anything that matters, hate to say it but its true, i couldnt care less.

    Who knows how it will unfold, but judging by the slow reactions of county and state to past disasters, pretty much everybody is on their own and most of them blues will be screaming for the gubbermint to do something fast,,,,

    My house could get destroyed and id be fine, ill just rebuild. Our threat is from wind, if i can get through the next few months without a hurricane it will no longer be an issue as im replacing the roof and doing a bunch of steel straping to enhance the ties on the roof structure anyway.

    But the vast majority of homes here are very vulnerable.

    The system that will take the hardest hit is the electric grid, our entire system is primarily above ground, the bulk of the distribution grid is hanging on wooden poles. Power will be out for months in most places, and with that goes the sewer and water for almost the entire heavily populated portions of the island. Wonder how those transplants in theie 2 million dollar homes will fare after sewage starts bubbling up in their family room and dripping out of light fixtures on the first floor after it completely overflows because they have 2000 homes higher than them?

    Anywho, it aint going to be pretty and the local and state government is poorly prepared beyond giving lib service to those affected.

    Our area will fare pretty well, aside from no power, blown down trees blocked roads, possible damage to homes, most of our area will be fine as we have a lot of old school folks with trucks, tractors, construction equipment etc etc, livestock, lots of game, lots of wood for fuel for cooking etc, and a fair number of reservoirs on private lands as well as gravity feedon the water system, might not be potable but being that most of the upcountry water department employees also live up here i doubt its going to get shut off and if it does the official who gave that order will have an unfortunate lead poisoning accident.

    We do have a fair number of unprepared though, actually more than half i would guess, so somewhere in the 6-10k people range just in our area, pretty wide area though, i doubt there will be too many showing up at my doorstep as its a winding ways up into our spot and if its most of my neighbors id help them even though they are blues. Some not so much,,,

    It will be interesting, i pay pretty good attention to stuff and am pretty good at improvising so not too terribly worried, short of Haleakala erupting i can most likely deal,

    So Mother nature is my most likely and most probable arbiter of disaster, and who knows, this may be the year!

    1. Nailbanger
      Do you remember that cruise ship that lost power for several days in the Caribbean. People actually crapped all over their washrooms, cabins, hallways, … instead of using plastic lined garbage cans and disposing of the sh*t overboard. They chose to live in the crap thinking that someone would come along and wipe their asses, and living areas.

      1. hermit us—- yes…that amazed us too. How stupid….—-And, they were complaining they were down to eating onions for sustenance….Seriously? (not that onions are bad)….A ship that size and it must have had freezers and store rooms full, not to mention hidden stores for Captain/Staff, and so forth.

        1. Anon
          Even if food ran out, it could be flown in. The bigger problem was poor waste disposal that would lead to severe health problems. They just got lucky on that one – but I remember the sorry sight of unprepared walking off the ship in total shock.

      2. Hermit,
        Whats worse, it has happened twice on that same ship,,,,,,
        One of my better halfs co workers is going on that cruise,,, hope she is taking her nose plugs

    2. Nailbender;
      After reading your post, I’m reminded of Puerto Rico, Yes your ‘state’ is more “modern”, but will they take a direct hit with a Cat4? and will the supplies take as long to get there as PR? As you said the Power is the HUGE thing, no power and everything folds.
      Just thinking out loud for the conversation.

      1. NRP
        We lose power regularly with 45 mph trades and heavy rain,,,
        It wont even take a cat 4
        A tropical storm lingering here for 2 days woild render everything useless

  2. Good morning Nailbanger
    The French President actually made a very profound statement this morning in his speech to Congress.
    He said something like “we are only one generation away from loosing our democracy”. The same can be said for dealing with when SHTF. If people have not experienced an emergency (storm, flood, …) then they become complacent and are ignorant as to how to deal with the situation.

    It only takes one generation not taught how to survive, or taught the BS about how Gov will save you in all circumstances to place the country at risk. We are seeing this happening with the current young generation and many here realize we can not stop it – kiss it goodbye unless a reset happens – peaceful or violent.

    1. hermit us;
      The “new” generation has not really seen a War or ‘The Great Depression’, they have only known “give me dat”.
      I agree with you 1000%, a “reset” is extremely possible, and probable.

      1. NRP/Hermit
        Thats why we do what we been doing and come here to think on stuff out loud,,,,
        Its not a matter of if, but when, the longer we go the higher the odds

        1. Nailbender & hermit us;
          I believe your right Nailbender.
          Why do we spend time here on MSB? Yes some do come here and read, hopefully learn and listen, but I think more for a reminder for ourselves why we do Prepare and live the Lifestyle.
          This is a PERFECT article to reinforce that. Ken does a hell of a GREAT job getting a lot of us to speak up and talk about the ways to cook that “preverbal Frog” (even if some get nasty about some thought provoking articles and just want 15 list of 25 food items) but does it help anyone out there in La-La Land? I sure hope so, for if even one soul can understand what it is we talk so much about than it’s worth it I guess.

    2. Hermit
      So true,
      We grew up learning all sorts of useful stuff like how and what you could eat from the shoreline or out of the forest, how to slaughter animals, hunting, fishing, building stuff, raising stuff, feeding things, trapping things,
      Now all these kids know is how to play with some stupid ball and win,,, yea cause thats going to be real useful.
      The worst part is its actually the last 2-3 generations in most cases.

  3. not exactly to your post, but i think Longterm, those who survive/thrive/continue on, will need a more critical/cynical/hardass mindset. You/your family can be nice to the folks on the street when it is short (you can always easily restock), but if it is truly longterm, especially if quickly apparent it is longterm….I think you will need the above sort of attitude to survive.

  4. Interesting, and since you have asked quite a few questions I’m (long winded NRP) going to give ya my entire 8¢ worth, and that’s a LOT of ‘¢’.

    What will be the items to disappear first?
    1. I believe the things that will disappear first are, of course, bottled water, fast foods (aka no cook foods), Gas/Fuel.
    2. Will be viable means of transportation, the roads will be clogged/unpassable, ALL public transportation will come to a standstill, air-travel will be impossible. The only means of transport will be walking, and VERY dangerous at that.
    3. Rule of Law or respect for others, it will be ciaos for the slightest morsel of anything of Value, but what will be valuable?

    “What will “the unprepared” and….”
    1. Deny the happening totally and lie to the public/each-other. And 99.99% will agree “This can’t happen here”
    2. PANIC!!!!! Pure 100% panic, they will realize that there is nobody to “save” and protect them. They will wait till they are told what to do by the .gov. They will wait for a very long time for FEMA and the Red-Cross to “be there for them”.
    3. They will turn to violence to gather “stuff” they think will ‘save them’. Remember seeing looters stealing 80” TVs when the Hurricanes hit? This will be a very dangerous time for everyone that “has” for the have-not will claim your stuff as theirs.
    4. The ‘unprepared’ will next try to “get out” of where ever they are, they will be on the move to “live in the woods”. They will take anything and everything from anyone, even turning on themselves. Starvation and hunger/thirst will rule their thoughts. What would you do for your starving child?
    5. The remaining will start to form “Gangs”, they will form roving raiding parties to TAKE from anyone, and leave a path of dead in their wake. These people will be VERY VIOLENT.

    “What will the “prepared” do….”
    1. The prepared will first make it home/BOL/safe-house by recognizing very quickly TSHTF and NOT wait till someone else lies to them to calm them, they will react FAST and first.
    2. Secure their ‘Homestead/BOL/whatever’. Communicate with their ‘group’ and hunker down, secure the location via whatever means predetermined.
    3. Top off water and fuel supplies if possible. Fill the Bath-Tub and hit the Gas station if not dangerous sort of thing. Do NOT got “to the store” for those few extra things. That last package of TP is not worth the risk.
    4. Check on the TP stash (metaphor) assuring the Deep Pantry is secure.
    5. Monitor the ‘event’ via Ham/SW/Emergency transmissions. Knowledge will be a key element, knowing what is happening is important, knowing how to sort the BS from what’s really happening.

    “Do you agree?”
    Mostly I agree, in the short term, 1-2 days, most will be in a daze and waiting for the .gov “to save them”. BUT remember the Blackouts in NY-Shitty? Riots, Rape, Murders in the first night, within hours.
    Security WILL be of a primary focus depending where you are.

    “What’s the timeline?”

    1. Event, the prepared will react as soon as they hear/know of TSHTF, the Sheeple will wait for the Lies and .gov to tell them what to do
    2. I do not believe that the prepared will give a flying fig how “bad”/magnitude it is, they will move fast no matter what happens. Again, the Sheeple will not know till too late, till MSM tells them to go home and wait for FEMA to help.
    3. Self-assessment, As above, one had better “be on alert” at first notion, keep your eyes and ears open, realize your surroundings, KNOW the threats.
    4. Actions taken…. MOVE your ass to wherever you need to be NOW, do NOT wait, time lost may be lives lost.

    “What will they be doing after week 1?”
    Within one week, there will already be a LOT of suffering, people dying from lack of “good water”, violence will already have started, as I said before, “what would you do for your dying child?”

    “Week 2?”
    Sheeple will be hunting and killing for anything they can get, water, food, hope.

    The BIG die-off will start as people will start to starve to death, disease will start taking thousands, Gangs will have formed and “take” without rule of law there will be 10000% chaos.

    Within 6 months there will be zero help for the unprepared, except for those that kill off the “prepared” and destroy everything the set eyes on. I truly believe the unprepared will have a strong hold in the Shitties and some outlying areas, but most will never make it further without one of the first things to disappear, Transportation.

    In conclusion to my Dissertation, I honestly believe this ‘can/will’ happen, I pray it does not, but that is a lost prayer I think. The Human Animal WILL destroy itself before long, plus this “Third Rock from the Sun” cannot support a virus (Humans) that’s destroying it as fast as Humans are.

    Those that do prepare and survive this SHTF, may and that’s a HUGE “MAY” have the opportunity to rebuild, the question, will the Human Animal learn? Or will this cycle just keep going to the “End of Times?”.

    Sorry for being so long winded, but this is a VERY important subject that y-all had better think on.
    Anyways, that’s my 8¢ and just this old man’s foolish opinion.

    1. NRP
      Well said. May you find that inner peace and acceptance of our world. Too many will simply run around with their hair on fire – like my DW – 8 hours without power and a crazy person emerges.

      1. hermit us;
        Sorry about my little chuckle, but 8 house without power is called Lunch for a lot of us, yourself included I’m guessing ?????…. HAHAHAHA

    2. NRP
      Not foolish, well thought out IMHO.
      All it would take would be for a huge section of a city to have power knocked out and it will become hell.
      I would bet most will be in denial for the first few days unless they are victims right off the bat, and as mentioned theres precedent to support that happening.
      As Ole Remus says
      “Stay away from crowds”

      1. Nailbender;
        I would also have to say, you live on an Island with 90% of ALL supplies for somewhere else, Imagine for a second that HI is not hit, but no shipments come for 2 months???? I believe you would be good to go, but how about the rest of the shepple?

        1. NRP
          Definitely, has happened before, shipping strike, but that was back when tourism was more a novelty and we actually had a solid agriculture based economy and the bulk of food stuff was produced here and there were huge warehouses full of paper goods and consumables. It is amazing how far downhill this place has gone since the 70s,
          Have had this discussion with a few people over the years and indeed after 9/11 there was enough of a bump in the supply side that the state took notice but it has been replaced by a smug overconfidence that they will just legislate their way to getting things done, pffTftt#*£_!’m azzholes
          And your right, we are good to go, for an extended period, but i see it all around me those who arent, they are the ones buying a few extra bottles of wine and chips when there is a forecast of heavy rains and are the ones rolling their eyes and going to the movies when theres a hurricaine watch. My personal favorite is the guy who took his kids down to the beach to watch the tsunami come in and then was taking selfies with his kids standing on the reef when the water went out. That gene pool needs draining anyway so i hope they all go down there next time

        2. Nailbanger
          One of my favorites is the reported demise of the idiots that go onto volcano lava flows to get closeup pictures.

        3. Hermit,
          We have a big blowhole over on the nort west side of the island, looks innocent enough, most of the time you peer over the edge and the water is just sloshing around in there, but then a swell will come in and WOOSH its a geiser,,,
          We lose about 5 tourist a year down there in spite of signs posted in half a dozen different languages, these numbnuts go down there and sit on the edge waiting for the woosh,,,
          IMHO its one way to drain that inferior gene pool

        4. Nailbanger

          Blowholes should be illegal. Any normal person sees a blowhole, the first thing they wanna do is ram their head in it. Poor, poor people..I bet somebody is “introducin a bill” to correct that ongoin tragedy. Gotta problem? then by god, “Let’s introduce some more bills”. It has worked so well in times past.Our gov should be set up where any Tom, Dick or harry could introduce a bill and pass it into law anytime they want to. Sorta like Cali.

        5. My parents lived on Oahu for 20 yrs before they passed.

          Mom’s favorite saying:
          “the pacific ocean eats tourists”

          She always said the papers were full of the stories of the drowned.

    3. I agree 100% thank you for always putting things into perspective. I’m afraid we are in for huge changes in our lives very soon.

      1. Ken;
        Your Welcome.
        As I said, I feel this is an extremely important subject that should not be ignored,
        Thanks for the BLOG and opportunity to voice this opinion.

    4. I never thought I’d see the day When NRP says “That last package of TP is not worth the risk.”
      LOL … Seriously, that advise isn’t ¢’s its $’s.

      1. Serenabit;
        Dang someone caught that HAHAHAHA.

        Hence ya should be doing the “Use one, Buy two” now before the manure impacts the air circulation device. :-) :-)

        PS: If there are 300 Zombies chasing ya, you might need a few extra rolls… HAHAHAHA

    5. In the LDS book there is an article written by someone who was in Bosnia. It is a list of the 1oo emergency items That Will Disappear First. Very enlightening. Re read it if you have it.
      TP is number 30 !

      1. Mrs.USMCBG;
        WHAT!!!!! Number 30???? noooo say it aint so? :-)
        As far as I know it’s Number 2 hehehehehe
        I guess I still need to write that article explaining the ‘meaning’ of TP in the Prepared World.

        1. NRP,
          I picked up on the metaphor thing a while ago (and think I even commented on it at some point). Yes, TP is a literal thing, but also symbolic of the entire prep process and mindset. As in “Get your TP in order”!

    6. NRP-well said and I agree one hundred thousand percent with your assessment.

    7. NRP,
      Thank you for your email. I agree. I worry about my grown daughter. She thinks I am paranoid. I have tried to teach her, but I am not sure that it “took”.

      1. PrepBabe;
        Might I suggest doing a Cut/Paste or emailing this entire article to her (With the Credits to Ken’s BLOG), maybe she will see the concern of a LOT of others besides yourself.
        Even better have her just come to this BLOG for a single month and see the thoughts of a LOT of folks that are well educated and willing to share knowledge.
        Just have her do “Mom” a favor and give 10 minutes a day to this BLOG, maybe JUST maybe she will get the ‘Bug’.

  5. I think in the beginning people will likely be in a state of shock, and the sheep will wait for the government to come to their rescue. FEMA is likely to tell people to hunker down while the government gets things back to normal. It’s hard to determine what the unprepared and the prepared will do as I think it will depend on their mental capacity. Just like during WW2, the news about the concentration camps was so horrible that people simply refused to believe it. When something is so horrendous people just refuse to acknowledge its existence. Those people, are likely to be the ones to die, waiting for FEMA to come to their rescue. The prepared may go through a similar phase, but are likely to recover quicker and respond accordingly.
    I don’t know the time frame, I guess it would depend on when the realization hit. It will be different for everyone.

    1. PG
      If all communication infrastructure goes down, it will be the “not Knowing” that will drive many nearly insane – I think preppers have more of a thirst for information that the general public – err sheeple. Imagine a week with no knowledge of what has happened – we are dependent in ways we do not realize.

      1. PG & hermit us;
        Ya want to see the masses go bonkers? take offline a few Cel-Towers for a week.
        COMPLETE ciaos for sure, I mean how can they call ahead for their Starbucks Cap?

      2. I think that it would be frustrating for preppers to not know what is going on in areas farther out from them. It’s more difficult to prepare for the Golden Horde if you don’t have intel on when they might be passing through. I suspect, though, that most of us are fairly practiced at adjusting to whatever the situation is that we don’t need gummint (mis)information to deal with our circumstances. We look at the facts we have and draw our own conclusions about the best course to take. Come to think of it, it might even be easier to figure things out if we can only concentrate on the local situation.

  6. Assuming the long term event coincides with loss of power/internet connection/broadcast media, the first thing the unprepared will seek is information, though I suspect, the same would be true for even the most prepared.

    In big, inner-cities, this would mean large gatherings of bewildered people looking for answers, coinciding with organized gangs taking advantage of the situation. Bad combination for store owners. When reality sets in, the survival instinct will kick in. Yes, even the most vocal pacifist has one, no matter how they pride themselves in their ability to suppress it. Anyone with a lick of sense will flee the inner-city before the inevitable chaos descends. Those w/o any sense will hunker down in place waiting for government rescue that will not materialize.

    Most rural folks will fair better in the opening weeks of a catastrophic event, mainly because of the difference in lifestyles. I know very few families that could not make it at least a month on supplies on hand. In my area, “city water” didn’t make it to the area until 15 years ago. The wells and springs are still there to be used.

    Ken sited the original commentator as mentioning security/weapons as a number one priority. I see this as the same as clothes and shoes. Everyone should have at least one, no matter what the threat level your’e facing. I can think of no prep that has a longer shelf life than a quality firearm and ammunition, nor is needed more when the situation to use it arises. Stored properly, either on your person or up high and quickly accessible to YOU, it is no more a danger to my family than that extra food in the pantry. (I recommend everyone have at least one, but advise having as many as it takes to at least address likely defense/hunting scenarios). Training is a must. I can hardly remember when I was not around guns. Until my time in the military and subsequently, law enforcement, I learned by osmosis from my father and older men. Not all have that advantage. Realize that guns are necessary, but safe, competent use must be learned and practiced.

    I apologize for the emphasis on protection, but when things go south, many folks will go crazy. The rule of 3’s goes out the window when panicked people try desperate measures.

    1. Dennis
      Yep, nothing quite like pulling that rifle out after 6 years and smacking dead center on the first shot at 200yds,,, that was a recent experience, still smile when i think about it

    2. Well said Dennis,
      When people play stupid games they win stupid prizes, but without the proper training and tools in hand the strongest (not necessarily the smartest) can do what ever they choose. Both “Training” and “Tools IN-hand” are absolutely necessary to ensure one’s safety.

  7. Is it possible that many wish to ignore the warning signs in so many sectors that we can’t hardly list them all? Okay so it is more fun to read about the 15 list and 25 foods – and stuff to acquire. Are there really so many urban and suburban dwellers here that profess to be preppers but are waiting like the frog until the last minute to jump? I know about the arguments, that employment and fast healthcare are important. I lived it until I found I could work from a remote location just as easy and decided that the change to a healthier lifestyle lowered my risk of needing intensive medical treatment. If I get that severe heart attack while working my garden, it is better than laying in a hospital room needing someone to spoon feed me. It is each person’s choice but I suggest you look at your life and what you really want.

    1. hermit us;
      You know I LOVE it when others use that word that means so much… “Lifestyle”. And yes I guess that living in a Condo in the middle of Chicago is a lifestyle the same as Ken on top Mt. Washington just 3 miles west of BFE. BUT in regards to Preparedness and Surviving a true SHTF as this article is about the probability of “making it” is more likely leaning toward Ken’s place that the murder capital of the US.

      As far as $$$$ and Medical, well my choosing to live 15-20 miles from the nearest town and 30 from the nearest Hospital, that’s a chance I take for not having a neighbor 15 feet from my house. AND to be honest, give me that MASIVE coronary in my Garden than living in a “Rest Home” drooling and waiting for someone to use a hunk of my TP on my backside.

      WITH that said, and my God I’m long winded today, YES if you’re a keyboard prepper and have 10 cans of Mountain House under your desk…. THANK YOU!!!! At least you have something started, Please PLEASE keep going, be there for your Family, and loved ones. As I said above, what would you do if your children were starving? Murder your neighbor for a can of Beans?

      1. I don’t think people will kill for their kids. I think they will beg.

        1. Hey Linda

          I would ask you to reconsider your observation. When things get bad enough there will be SOME people that will kill for a lighter……………….or even less…Desperate people will call for equally desperate measures I’m afraid. It would be a mistake to underestimate the human animal. People will do things you can only imagine , unless somebody stops em.

  8. Good topic and wise comments everyone…
    Also major cities have and will likely close off major highways, I just read that NY closed off bridges and tunnels to traffic (except walking…remember those walking covered in dust?) immediately after 9/11
    Good reminder to keep foldable bike and at least good walking shoes in your vehicle at all times.
    Like some others have said, we need to learn survivable skills and successfully pass them on to the younger generation, now…
    Kind of interesting when you “awake” or “red-pill” (Matrix reference), it’s seems for us even though we have been on this preparedness journey since about 2004, the last two years our conviction has been get your stuff in order and ready…
    I feel like we are on borrowed time, ya know?
    My DH says, I’m not worried about us, it is the unprepared…
    May we all here have wisdom to clear the clutter out of our heads and lives
    so we can take care of and prepare those things which are most important…
    Trusting in the Good Shepherd…
    Peace and Good Providence to all here…

    1. Shepherdess I wish you were in my tribe, what an asset you would be!

      Surprise I fully agree about the folding bike as you Need to get Home ASAP before the thugs are out in force.

      Your DH comment about worrying about the unprepared is so true. Your initial worst nightmare will be unprepared neighbors.

      Do you have a way to funnel unwanted visitors into a route of your choice?

    2. I would take people in and get them digging and planting in the garden to help feed more people. God will provide and He is always in control.

      1. Linda you sound like a kind woman and I like that. However given that you clearly have not been in the center of a angry lynch mob over some “police brutality” when little jonnie lost a gun fight with the police or visited via Uncle Sam some war torn 3rd world country where folks knife each other for GI trash….

        If you intend to set the hungry unprepared to work then you need to take lessons from the Monks of old. A FULLY Defensible Home (look at the fortress qualities of old churches like the Alamo) so you can lock the doors and wait the mob out. Also you need to have the some million calories per adult for a year for the number of adults you intend to teach gardening to.

        Gardening is not simple nor easy and watching an angry mob stomp all over your young garden is disheartening. I have SEEN this happen.

        God is love and God is a Warrior the thoughts do not contradict. God commanded his peoples to kill every living thing including animals more than once. Jesus committed violence to the money changers in the Temple as well as TOLD his Apostles to sell their cloak to buy the soldiers weapon SWORDS to defend themselves after he was to go away.

        Peace my sister.

        1. NH Michael,

          First, no disrespect intended, because you are obviously very devout.

          Personally, I enjoy reading. But I cannot figure out scripture. It literally makes no sense to me. And those who preach it, will immediately say: “So what God is telling us is….” All of it must be interpreted. Frankly, for being God, I’m a little disappointed. It appears is if he hired a bunch of ADHD kids to write it.

          And the gratuitous violence, torture and death I don’t get either. Let me get this straight… For God so loved the world, that he gave his only son over to some Roman punks who crucified him…. Huh??! He did this for me and you? I’m more than a little creeped out.

          I mean this is God we are talking about. All caring, all loving, etc. Why does ‘God’ always seem to resort to gruesome acts, mass-murder and torture of his own son? Seems awfully melodramatic and unnecessary.

          One day I hope to know the truth. I just hope the bible ends up being no more than what is… a collection of disparate writing meant to terrify the population into submission and obedience, to other men.

        2. McGyver you are intelligent and when I was much younger I was in your shoes concerning the Bible.

          I cannot address all you said here but I will leave you with a story that worked for me. Not all at once but it opened my thoughts.

          A Farmer had a flock of chickens busy doing all the stuff chickens do to each other like steal, maim (ever see chickens gang up on a sick bird) and bully. He loved them as he accepted their nature as it is. The Farmer could see a massive thunderstorm coming and wanted to get his chickens into the chicken house for safety. But He did not speak chicken. The Farmer tried to push them and bully them into the Chicken house while watching that deadly storm rolling in.

          God is the Farmer and he allowed himself to become the Chicken (Jesus) in order to speak to them and get those that would hear into the Chicken House to be saved from destruction.

          People seem to do plenty of mass murders and gruesome acts on their own but love to pass on the “Blame” to God told me etc. The Bible is God trying to speak Chicken to the gratuitously violent humans.

          Sometimes violence is needed but often there is a better way. Early Christians were know as the “Way”.

          Peace my friend.

  9. When SHTF many people will die and how they died doesn’t matter. What matters is what do you do with the bodies. You don’t want to bury them on your flat land that’s for farming and you don’t want to use your winter fuel to burn them. They must be taken care of to prevent disease. The only thing I can think of is to take them to a divided highway and bury them between lanes.
    What would I do when I first notice SHTF would be to go to my pharmacy and bribe the pharmacist with a large amount of cash to get more of my necessary meds. At that time I would enplane to her what is happening.

    1. Stack the bodies up by the entrance to your house to keep unwanted fools from coming.

      1. Linda ever hear of the Plague? Mostly caused by piles of dead humans generating even more death by disease.

        There is a GOOD reason burial is so important in EVERY CULTURE. Preservation of the rest of the people.

        1. linda
          Well, you have never seen a body bloat up and rupture, spilling out the most nasty stuff you will ever see.!!!! I’ll leave out the description. Been there, seen that, You will NEVER forget that site.

        2. SMG
          Dead deer/pig/cow etc smell bad, human has a funk all its own, we found a guy down by the ocean when we were fishing one time, had been there a while, we didnt retreive him but the firemen came with the chopper as he was kinda stuck in the rocks and partly in the water, his limbs came off when they were trying to get him un stuck, gross shit, a few of us blew chunks, including the poor firemen trying to wrestle the body out of the rocks into the basket in between waves,,, nasty stuff

        3. SMG
          Another sight you wont forget is a crab crawling out of an empty eye socket and into the open mouth of a dead guy that you thought was a dead goat,,,
          I guess theres worse
          I sorta stopped investigating smelly dead stuff we come across after that

    2. I’m hoping if/when it hits the fan that it will be when all the Snow Birds are back up North. That cuts our local population in half. Now, for the rest of the retirees who are full-time residents, it will be challenge dealing with the bodies. We have lots of gators west of town that need to eat. There is also a large population of wild hogs….they even eat the bones…the remainder will need to be incinerated. Not a small job. Freaks me out to think of the flies and maggots.

      1. Goatlover-I hope they are all back up north, too. We have a gator and wild hog population near us as well…as well as a bunch of implants that don’t know their rear from a hole in the ground.

        1. Daughterofaghostown
          Dont ya just love those whitless wonders, tons of money, most likely some lofty degree, and couldnt figure out how to connect two pieces of rubber hose together,
          Its evennworse when they are just manipulative trash and do it to get others to cover their azzez

      2. Goatlover,,,
        Once that happens dont ever eat those hogs, they take on the taste of whatever they eat

  10. I saw a video recently on the situation in Puerto Rico. One elderly gentleman said that he remembers when they didn’t have electricity. He said that if they made it then, then they can make it now.
    As has been mentioned here previously, our dependency upon things that are dependent on electricity, makes us very vulnerable. It’s been a long time since we did not have electricity, so most of us would not have much of a chance to survive long term without it.
    Only those who have been living without electricity, along with those that truly know how to live off the land, would probably be the ones to have a chance at making it, long term. As long as they know how to deal with the disease epidemics that would accompany a massive die off.
    As one expert says, he believes that there will probably be pockets of survivors scattered about. And no doubt some will make heroic efforts at rebuilding. After all, America was started from scratch 😉
    Barring an invading and conquering force at such a vulnerable time, perhaps things could start anew.

  11. Lately there have been lots and lots of lower level quakes in N Washington up into the Aleutians. Couple areas with clusters. Enough that the USGS seems to be a little alarmed. That could be long term for that area but could cause a domino effect all along the west coast with supply problems. That is assuming a medium quake there didn’t start a whole chain reaction.

    1. aka;
      Along those lines, could ya just imagine what would happen if 3 or 4 major Sea Ports, such as Pot-Land Port, closed for a month, even worse a little earthquake that takes out the 5 major bridges to/from LA?

      Yet another disaster item to put on the long list of “What-If” happens.

      And yet the sheeple follow FEMA and have 3 days worth of supplies…… amazing.

      1. I figure if a big or bigish quake hits up there that I could make the proverbial last trip to the store before anyone figured out that there could be a supply problem. Any decent quake in that area will likely take out at the very least SeaTac, Bellingham, anything along the Olympic peninsula and whatever they have in Alaska. Long term issues with millions involved.

    2. A 7.4 in 1946 in the Aleutians destroyed a bunch of stuff in Hawaii. We are overdue

  12. Out here in rural farm country, I’m sure that we have some unprepared people if it came to a long term event. Our main threats are short term tornados and fires so a nation-wide grid-down or shipping interruption would probably be rough on us like everyone else. Using the 2015 5-day Ice Storm (most recent event of any length, short or long) as a small hint of what might happen, I can only guess at how things will go out here if the grid is down everywhere.

    I don’t think there will be much panic the first week, just thirst for information. Generators will all come out (or be fired up at facilities outfitted with a permanent one) on the first day. Civil Defense (CD) & Law Enforcement Officers (LEO) communications will get the word out (citizen scanners), assisted by word-of-mouth and that should head off what little panic there was by the end of day two. The majority of people will probably just hunker down, wait, and listen to see what happens. Within a couple of days, the City will open up the old National Guard (NG) building (w/generator) so that the Food Bank (FB) can transfer their food stock there and begin preparing meals and providing a warming or cooling station depending on the season. Non violent prisoners will be recruited as the FB work force for the move, and violent offenders will be moved to an undisclosed outdoor fenced tent facility. Only cooked food will be available from the FB in an effort to make the available food go further. Municipal tap water pressure from the big tank will drop mid-week or sooner to where homes highest in altitude and the majority of rural water customers will get no flow. A couple of Quick Stops will continue selling fuel (w/generator) until their tanks are empty. The City may buy up all of the fuel in another station or two to reserve that gasoline for emergency vehicles. Portable (and possibly larger military) generators will be used to milk as many cows as possible at the 2nd largest dairy in the state the first few days until a long term outage is confirmed. They will then begin putting animals down and a small quantity of that beef will be harvested for the FB meals. The milk will be discarded. The fleet of milk tanker semi trucks will be used to haul and store raw water from available natural sources (ponds, lakes, creeks) for use by the Fire Department (FD).

    The second week, or as the FB packaged food gets used up, officials will begin a house-to-house welfare check to assure residents are ok, and conduct a successful food drive to be able to continue serving two meals per day to the growing number of people at the NG kitchen. All municipal tap water will have stopped flowing days ago. Fuel will be getting in very short supply for civilians. Gasoline vehicles will be parked if a diesel vehicle can serve its purpose (farmers have diesel storage). Most diesel pickups moving will have water containers in them for both humans and beasts. Most of the remaining dairy cattle will be put down and a small quantity of that beef will be harvested for the FB meals. LEO will form a large group of volunteer Armed Community Citizens (ACC) from the list of CC permits issued recently by the Sheriff to help patrol the entire area to prevent crime.

    By week three, another house-to-house welfare check and an unsuccessful food drive will take place. People that have packaged food won’t give it up willingly this time. FB meals will then consist primarily of cooked dairy beef, and limited to one meal/day/person. Meetings will take place to determine if and which stored grain crops can be used for human consumption. Farmers will be asked to donate or sell some of their diesel fuel to LEO. Gasoline squad cars will be parked, and minimal officer patrol and response activity will be done in volunteer diesel vehicles. The population will have about doubled in size as family, friends, and enemies arrive from the urban areas nearby. Rioting and looting will probably be kept to a minimum by the ACC. One old boy with a fleet of treadle sewing machines may be kept busy producing ACC ID arm bands that change color and design each week as decided by the Sheriff?

    CD in Oklahoma

    1. CD and Kyle as much as I love your scenarios I fear they are both a tad optimistic. Human nature is not good by nature. Greed, Fear and other troubling issues will be rampant before week 2 starts.

      Gangs and other criminals will be out in force setting up their own fiefdoms week ONE and it will be VERY Hard to tell who is the Good Guys or Bad Guys doing welfare checks and such. Even police have fears and worries for their families and can and will go rouge.

      Who will protect those diesel volunteers vehicles from L shaped ambushes by folks who WANT that Diesel Truck AND those weapons? If they are running by Rules of Engagement of law abiding people ambush will be the nightmare scenario.

      Security, food, housing and ability to keep family as comfortable as possible (heat/cooling/meds) will be critical. Go DARK avoid the rush of interesting people.

      1. NH Michael – I appreciate your response, and you may be right, but I just don’t see the chaos out here in farm country that you describe. Knowing who are the good guys and the bad guys shouldn’t be much of a problem. Most people out here are either related or know the good ones that aren’t. Outsiders and bad guys will be evident. Not much sophisticated gang activity here except the ones that come from out of town to gang-bang each other on neutral turf, and many of them are known by locals for what they are. I think the outside gangs will stay on their home turf for the first couple of weeks at least doing what you described to try to save their home turf. Once the local citizens are confident that the shtf has really hit, the out-of-town gangs that might show up will most certainly be dispatched quickly I would guess. The diesel truck volunteers will protect themselves. You’d be surprised how much fire power there is out here in the rural areas. Damned near everybody will be locked and loaded, and it will be open season on all enemies from outside. I just don’t see the Sheriff issuing any do-not-shoot-to-kill statement when he knows it’s a long term situation, to either the citizens or his massive ACC posse of peace-keepers. I think the residents in our area will function more like a tribe at a bugout encampment. I think there will be a lot of helping others to get through the situation, just like tornado and fire tragedies have always been for us. I don’t foresee any each-man-for-himself scenario here at all.

        CD in Oklahoma

        1. CD in Oklahoma,
          I tend to agree with your assessment of most rural America. Folks already have a pretty good idea who the trouble will come from and folks they have tacitly allowed to coexist will be dealt with quickly at the slightest hint of misbehavior. I do differ a little with your description of how helpful law enforcement will be the farther you are from town. This is not a disrespectful observation, but, at least in my rural county, the Sheriff’s Department is basically dedicated to running a jail, with very limited resources left to dedicate personnel for patrol or investigative functions. Folks in my neck of the county know that even emergency response is usually measured in hours, not minutes. My neighbors usually call me before they call 911, not because they think I’m better than the local deputies, but they respect my experience and I’m closer.
          Like you, I know who can be trusted amongst my neighbors and who bears watching. I do fear though, an influx of the hard drinking road hunter types we experience every deer season. They have learned to steer clear of me as they have found I don’t tolerate their rude behavior, but that may change if they feel emboldened by hard times.
          Good post by the way.

        2. CD I hope and pray you are correct my friend. Your area sounds like a paradise of hard working well off people with out domestic violence or drug issues. We will need areas of recovery after the Cities burn and the 4 horseman ride all over spreading death, famine and disease.

          Where I live Semi Rural there is enough currently reported lawlessness, illegal drugs and people living paycheck to paycheck unable to replace a flat tire IN THE MIDDLE of Winter driving on a donut spare… to give me reason to be concerned. Most “Well Off” I see are living by the Credit Cards and minimum payments. When the SNAP Cards and such stop it will NOT BE PRETTY.

          For MYSELF the big concern is deciding when to raise the drawbridge. To know enough to act decisively to the level of committed defensive actions. If you start shooting folks for stealing and OPPS it’s not as far along the SHTF timeline as you think getting arrested and jailed is a POOR place to be in when the rest of the SHTF situation occurs.

          Thus my Tribes plan of strong defenses, varied responses to threats like zone control and Bear Spray instead of instant firepower response to allow us TIME to KNOW if it’s a local issue or FULL ON SHTF with out rule of law event.

          Anybody else have any CONCERNS on how to determine when it is REALLY SHTF instead of a blow over situation?? Is my tribe the only folks who discuss how to determine when to bump up our violence levels?

        3. NH Michael – I understand your concerns, and you may be closer to correct than I am with your projections. I’m enjoying your input. Notice that Ken’s question was “If the event that occurs will clearly result in long term SHTF (even clearly realized by the unprepared)…”, so in the scenario provided, it’s already evident that it’s definitely a full-on SHTF. I have no idea by who or how it was determined that it’s a long term event, but yes, it is time to raise the drawbridge.

          CD in Oklahoma

        4. CD in OK Yes BUT almost everybody here makes the assumption that We Will KNOW when it IS SHTF.

          My last post was ASKING if anybody else has concerns on how to determine when it is REALLY SHTF and time for decisive LIFE CHANGING Behaviors.

          Maybe Ken should make that the NEXT Article as going to Jail before full on SHTF will be very hard on your family.

        5. That is an excellent topic. I will work something up and post it either later today or tomorrow. So let’s save our responses till then ;) Thanks…

        6. NHM
          Getting arrested and jailed would definitely be a bad thing,
          I think about resource preservation a lot, especially since i currently live in a place that seemingly gives crooks a free pass but will hold a guy like me to the letter of the law and then some,,,
          After SHTF but before the law is gone, if that ever happens, its going to test us beyond reasonable possibilities, just look at places like venesuela, gov thugs are seemingly being taken care of so they havent gone away yet regardless of the situation for the average peeps. I could see it being a whole lot worse here in the FUSA as these gov thugs are guite well outfitted.
          God save us is all i can come up with

        7. VERY good post.

          Often people over look how they will even know when SHTF happens. I mean how will you? How will you know if it is a local issue? A National? A Global? How will you know what level of force in a certain situations has become justifiable? These are questions you should start to make plans for NOW. You do not want to end up in jail for misjudging your situation.

          I have a “hardened” laptop and police radios. I can see and hear the majority of police operations and broadcasts statewide. But that is it.

          Also I am sure some are wondering. No the equipment is not hardened for an EMP (Dust and Shaking). If an EMP goes off I will be completely disabled.

        8. Kyle;
          If it tis a full on EMP attack, I’m fairly sure most around here would know it. No Nada works, even the Pace Maker.
          So that would be a full on situation RED.

      2. NH MICHAEL,
        You are way closer to what will transpire.
        The gangs and bad guys make plans too.
        Just gonna say it again .
        A big part of the population will stay put. They are too overweight to walk out of the cities and towns. They can hardly walk across the parking lot much less walk 30-40 miles or more. Most are chronically dehydrated from drinking sugary drinks instead of water. They will fall prey to the gangs and bad guys who will trail the exodus like sharks picking off the slow and weak …
        Thats why you have to work within your community . There are trustworthy people with ethics and morals out there.
        Also you get to eyeball the ones who are not.
        Train and prepare for the top 5%. That’s the real danger. The rest are manageable
        It’s going to be trying times to be sure
        It will come about in a short period of time too …
        It’s going to go from cold beer and a BBQ to warm water and cold beans overnight for the masses …

        1. I think a large percentage of the population in cities would get lost in the average city park if not for the trails. A lot of them will be terrified of gettin off the sidewalk. It will be a sad fact that many people will perish, there is nothin that can be done about that. Mother nature sometimes appears cruel while goin about her normal business. It’s just the way the world works….

          From another angle, everybody refers the these people as “unprepared”, “sheeple”, etc. I figger that most of the idiots causin the majority of problems in our society. are among this group and will evaporate. They are the kind that can’t find the other side of the city park through the woods. .I myself, try to face the fact that if every single person or even most, survived a “reset” of whatever kind, we will likely be in worse shape than we are now. Just my humble Hillbilly opinion on the matter.

      3. Hey NH Michael,

        My perspective comes from a small town (700). The nearest big town is an hour away (20,000). I also live in farm country in North Dakota.

        We have no established “Gangs” in this county. We have some drug trafficking on our Highways as they move supplies North and South. Most of our local criminals are know to us and the community.

        I would be more concerned about outsiders coming in to loot the resources farmers have. But traveling across the country side would be far more difficult than people think. Especially during our winter, its not uncommon to have -15 degree nights with 20 mph winds. In open country, normal people are not prepared for that, even up here.

        Our biggest challenge would be the 40 minute drive between our 3 cities, it uses up a lot of gas. It also means we are far away from calls. Our community is used to it though, they often solve their own “problems”. I supposed eventually I would just need to do what I can near my home.

  13. I will keep it short…since there are millions of different scenarios.

    Widespread Global Collapse, slow burning. (Like a Solar Flare which causes an EMP)

    The Unprepared in Urban Areas (Just estimates, every area and season will be different):

    Week 1: People will start to realize the situation and attempt to make a short-term plan.
    Week 2: The gradual break down of our peaceful society will begin.
    Week 3: People will realize that they are on their own for a time and panic will begin.
    Week 4: Anarchy will begin once food and water run out, and utilities don’t come back.
    Week 5-6: Human die off will begin for the vulnerable dependent population.
    Week 7-8: People will realize no help is coming, making everything worse.
    Week 9-12: The general population will begin to die off due to starvation and disease.
    Week 12-16: During this period, I believe we could hit the end of the world as we know it.
    Next…who knows.

    The prepared will watch, pray, pray more, and then eventually be in the thick of it.

    Just my thoughts.

    1. Kyle,

      I think you are sort of correct. Just substitute “day” for every time you said “week” and you are probably right.

      1. You could very well be more right. To be fair I am writing from my perspective. I live in North Dakota, in a small town (700). My idea of a Urban area is very different than someone from a big state. I am sure in concrete cities, things would move much faster.

  14. Hurricanes are a good example. Andrew 1992. Community better prepared but not enough for long term event. Even today with improved preparation.
    Fuel gone in less than one week, maybe one to two days. No resupply
    Food gone in less than one week, maybe one to two days. No resupply
    Water gone in at most 3 weeks. Utility has 3 weeks of fuel for generators. No resupply, but who is going to man the plant for three weeks.
    Sewage removal works on a system of lift pumps. Some have back up generators, but fuel will run out. No resupply. Last time the power went out in a hurricane and, the pumps had no power, we had raw sewage in the street. That’s why they brought in the generators. Not every lift pump has a generator. The plan is to move a mobile generator on a trailer from pump to pump going upstream to clear the sewage sumps as needed. Without the lift pumps the sewage would then run into the canals around the houses, so no ability to use the canal water. The canals would become an open cesspool. Most would continue to flush their toilets so some might have sewage back up into their houses making their homes uninhabitable.
    No police within one to three weeks. Fuel supply exclusive to police dept exists, but no idea how much.

    Just watch “The Walking Dead” or “Fear The Walking Dead”. I live in “God’s waiting room”. The land of the newlywed and the nearly dead. Come to think about it, I could swear that I have seen some of my neighbors on those two shows. I live in the land of the “hanging chad”, the land of “electile dysfunction”. After a hurricane within 24 hours we see people pleading on TV, “where is my water, where is my ice”. “Government come comfort me”.

    After such an event, EMP, nationwide SHTF event (“The Last Ship”) no one will be coming to help. It will be every one for themselves. Better stack em deep. God help us, no one else will. God bless everyone. I love you all. Hope you and your family make it. It is not going to be pretty. We will all have to make some very hard decisions when this happens.

  15. Lots of excellent insight here. So I’ll just pile on (assuming full-blown wide-spread SHTF):

    1st day or two (not a full week): Most people will be disoriented, unsure, waiting to be told what to do. Depending on the SHTF event, if power AND Internet are off, most people will be clueless. I got on an elevator this morning after leaving a client appointment. When I stepped on, all 3 people already aboard had their noses in their cell phones. Completely unaware. I (no phone in hand) joke about feeling left out without a phone to read, and they all 3 laughed and then put their heads back down to keep reading. Totally oblivious. These folks will be dazed and confused. People trying to get home, or if home, scrambling to get basics: water, groceries, Rx’s, gas (if veh’s running).

    By the end of week 1: Full-blown panic. Stores empty, gas long gone. Plenty of looting, rioting, other crimes. People either locked in their homes or wandering looking for supplies. If .gov is functioning, there will be curfews and perhaps Nat’l Guard set-up or coming. If no .gov functioning, it will be a total free-for-all. 1st die-off of people whose life depends on power, plus some heart attacks and such. Beginning of crime-related deaths. Cities burning/burned. People will be searching for weapons/weapon substitutes – for defense and offense.

    Week 2: Rumors about where to get food, water, supplies. Long lines anywhere supplies may be available. Maybe shelters in place, maybe not. 2nd level of die-off: eating tainted food, lack of water or drinking bad water, people running out of life-saving meds, many more crime deaths. People have little or nothing left to eat… desperation. Many cities in total ruin. Many people still waiting for help to arrive, angry no one is helping them.

    Week 3: Deaths increase. All but the prepared have eaten through any food supplies they may have had. More sick/dying from lack of sanitation, hospitals out of everything by now. People are terrified. Drug addicts, criminals, desperate and starving people everywhere. It just gets worse from here. Everyone knows the drill – straight downhill from here.

    I think food, water, medicines, batteries, propane tanks (for BBQ’s), camping supplies, gasoline, stuff for babies (formula, diapers, etc..) and TP are top items to fly off shelves.

    The prepared are either hunkering down (if bugging in) or double-timing it to more secure location (if bugging out). Those bugging out should already have a plan and back-up plans for traveling as well as bugging in if travel just not possible. Unlike the unprepared, the prepared do recognize the situation immediately (or nearly) and have run through scenarios so they launch into action as there is no time to waste. I think that’s where the mindset comes in – not just stacking supplies, but being mentally/emotionally in control and going into action almost without thinking about it. “This is not a drill.”

    1. NHM,
      In the cities, I think things will go bad quickly. After the first couple of days, the shock will wear off, and panic will take over. The suburbs will be slightly better, but not by much. You get crowds of panic-y people together and nothing good will happen.

      As far as “out” – will depend on the specific circumstances. Human stupidity will be a big problem… especially if one is still living in city or suburbia when trouble strikes.

      1. Well So Cal Gal I hope your answer was more OPSEC about your plans than I have not actually done anything solid for my exit plan. It is too easy to have “Paralysis by Analysis” and/or “The enemy of Good is Better” to prevent actual doing and testing the plan.

        I like reading your posts very useful and enjoyable. I fear CA is one of the worst places to be in an SHTF situation so my concern for you.

        For EXAMPLE my Seattle bug out plan was the beater sailboat with a bicycle to get there through traffic jams was because I saw Seattle as a death trap with social unrest (from any source). The sailboat was in the water in a poor working boat marina mast down and sails stowed. No outboard showing as I hid it and the sails (both theft targets) un a modified bunk.

        So if I bicycled up, stowed the bicycle, used the sculling oar to get a few 100 yards away from docks THEN mount the outboard and putter away to a swampy slue I had explored and cached supplies.

        If the sailboat was not available (fires etc.) I could bicycle to that cache and set up camp anyway.

        Have a plan work the plan.

  16. I first started prepping when we had an ice storm that left us without power for 2 weeks. It took me 2 or 3 days to get everything set up where we could live semi-normal without power. Now I could be set up in 2 hours for the short term.
    The first thing I would do is fortify security at home and on my person. I would board up windows and carry more than one pistol and maybe even a long gun. Then I would buy all the insulin I could find. There is insulin you can buy without a prescription. It is not recommended by DW’s Dr. but it will be better than nothing. Next I would get as much fuel as possible. Then I would hunker down and try to get reliable info on what is really happening. We live in a very small town so hopefully people will not get completely crazy for a while.

  17. We live very isolated but there are several couples out here. Most have prepared for a while and some hardly at all. Since I tried to help people prepare they know we have stuff. I am afraid when they run out, they are going to want me to “share”. My old man (not the one above) and I have discussed and decided we can “share” with those who work for it- ie chop wood, etc. But I have a feeling that will only work for so long.
    My favorite is the neighbor that says, you are nuts, nothing is going to happen.

    1. old lady….maybe it is time (when you meet up with these folks/in town/etc) hang your head, look sad, and mention one or several ways your stocks have dwindled to nothing. In fact, you are looking for a handout yourselves…(so to speak)…a)basement flooded b)gave it away to starving relatives c)hubby got fed up and chucked it in the garbage d)you sold it to make ends meet etc

    2. So maybe another response would be a deadpan “You’re nuts. Nothing has happened.”

    3. Old Lady given I have seen older couples like you stripped of Foodstuffs-Valuables by gangs/military/police in Bosnia BUT Left Alive aside from beatings I ask you to DO the Plan B Olive Barrel. In it you can have clothing, HD plastic sheeting (Clear and Black), 550 cordage, storage foods, some cooking gear and weapons so you can repair/create shelter and have a chance to restart.

      What you choose to put in that Plan B is up to you but I say start planning your alive, hurt and watching your house burning for your planning.

  18. One worst case scenario is an economic collapse. There would be stages as the collapse happens – the stock market falls, the dollar falls, countries stop using the dollars for trade, loans are called in, public salaries are reduced and then halted. But, it truly hits the public when the banks close. It would be much more complicated than what I have written.
    Then what do people do? Who will work if you don’t get paid?
    Perhaps it should be a separate topic.

    1. Sorry for the poorly written comment. I raked leaves for about seven hours today.

      1. Gee Skeezix I thought you were quite concise. No need to apologize from my POV.

    2. I agree Skeezix economic collapse is the worst case where will pit neighbor vs. neighbor in “turn in a Gun get an award of food!” and worse.

      Look up the reports of Venezuela for horrid details of a Government gone wild and the non-favored do the bidding as to remain favored (as in Police/military/Rich folks).

      1. I imagine TPTB will do a lot of lying and will always sound encouraging. Lots of stimulus packages will be passed. More money will be printed. School will be cut down to three days a week and pay cuts. Cuts to welfare programs will start riots. Social security will change. Insurance agencies will fold as people stop paying. Mortgages and rent payments will end. It will be a dominoe effect.

        The sheeple will listen to the government lies about how this is all temporary as they announce their next set of regulations. The sheeple will then go on vacation believing that it is all temporary.

        A good read is “The Economic Collapse Chronicles” br Mark Goodwin.
        I learned a lot about the International Monetary Fund and the Federal Reserve Bank.

        1. Skeezix
          Were you listening to Coast to Coast on Monday evening? Subject that was being discussed do the Yuan & Chinese banking system now available for petrol purchases.

  19. I started writing a comment for this subject BEFORE NailBanger got his first one in. Then about two paragraphs into mine I refreshed the page. Damn! Eight more comments. Guess I just type way too slow. In the mean time I went out side (it’s 81 right now!!!! WoooooHooooo!!) and thought a bit on this subject. Looked around and evaluated the people in this cul-de-slack, and decided that the druggies across the street……..I think they are down to five people ‘living’ in the house……will last maybe two days. The guy next to them is a Boy Scout dude, he should last easily a couple of months. (When his garage door is open I can see his stash!!) Others around here, I’d give them a couple of weeks at best. The 200+ single-wide trailers in the ‘trailer park’ 100 yards from here……maybe a week. Then I contemplated what would happen between the balloon going up and say a month.

    First. All the people around here will be ‘checking up’ on everybody else. What that actually means is they will be trying to find out what everybody has, in case they need something.
    This will be going on for a couple of days.
    Second. More and more will be looking to ‘borrow’ gasoline, water, propane, a ‘little’ rice, some flour, anything to fill their guts. (Yeah, sure….”borrow”.)
    This will go on for day three to probably day eight. (OBTW….about now I shoot the stupid neighbors stupid dogs. Useless pieces of s&%$.)
    Third. Trailer park up in flames. Dozens, if not hundreds, of houses burning. Hoards of ‘homeless’ roaming through neighborhoods. Cops are on bikes….no gasoline available. (What cops there are.) No fire trucks. No ambulances. No water. No power.

    At four weeks I imagine half the place is burned. No food anywhere. A few thousand bodies laying around. This is the time I hook up the trailer (it should be ready by now), load up the extra gasoline, wait until about 0300, and haul my butt outta this s$&% hole place.

    I think what I am trying to say here is that I do not expect very much of this country to be functioning as a competent society when the SHTF. My DW is of the opinion that we should just wait for FEMA, or somebody, to keep the power, water, internet, etc., on and bring us prime rib and wine every day. I keep telling her that she’s hitting the second part way too much. Almost all the LEO’s I know are of the opinion that when the balloon goes up……they are gone. Like the Chinese used to say back in the 1800’s in/around San Fransisco……No ticky….no washee. They don’t get paid, they don’t go to work. Dedication don’t fill a gut.

    The first thirty days are going to be an eye opener. For a LOT of people. The 2008 ‘depression’ wasn’t squat. Mad Max is going to look normal. There will be a few areas where the people have their act together and have food, water, and basic amenities. But damn few. This country has evolved into a very delicate balance between what is needed and what is available. Disrupt that balance and the whole thing collapses. Just like a house of cards.

    1. RoarWarrior
      This will sound harsh, but ask you wife how she will like being a “permanently indentured servant” to the FEMA & DHLS. Look up the Executive Order #13603 expanded upon und the O’s administration. ALL food, all weapons, petrol, vehicles will become the property of the .gov including your abilities to work for them for the betterment of the good ol boys club. IF it goes beyond a few days…

  20. What disapears first doesn’t really make a big difference.

    What matters is fuel and electricity. Take away either or both of these and the World as we know it stops. Not slows down, it comes to a stop and there will be massive disease and death.

    Our’s is a world that runs on abundant fossil fuel and electricity.

    You can prepare for no electricity on a personal level. But the country can’t. If it goes away on a national level we are screwed. And pretty much it’s a given that we can’t refine our own fuel. And if a person could do so others around that person would kill him or her for said fuel.

    Sanitation is also something most people know nothing about and it will kill them by the millions.

    But hopefully a Mad Max World is not on the horizon…

  21. if a HEMP or high altitude emp where to hit most of the population would be dead within 8 or 9 months with ALL power sources out we would be back in time into the mid 1800s most would have no clue what to do ever since i started getting into prepping the economy and emps have been my worst fear if something like full scale nuclear war where to hit i would want to be right under ground zero i wouldnt want to see what was left so i have started learning OLD ways of taking care of my wife and i in learning old ways i have also found ways to take better care of both of us that have improved my own health and hers
    that screwed up thing is theirs NOTHING any of us can do to stop these things from happening all we CAN do is prepp and hope and pray to god they DONT happen

  22. Just a thought
    Nobody knows your area more than you. A set time frame for everybody would not fit in for everyone.. Yes an event in the bigger cities, chaos would happen within a three or five day span.
    Where I live, I would give it a week, two weeks. Then have a watchful eye on your belongings. Meaning livestock.of all types, gas, gennies,. Items to be hocked.
    Three weeks, better be packing 24/7. And a lookout 24/7.
    Week four, all out hell.
    I’m thinking we’ve all been brought up in generations of households that have been through some type of catastrophe. Depression, war, weather, etc.
    We know or have been tought how to get thru. It’s the ‘others’ I worry about. Personal and property protection is a MUST.
    Two is one, one is none

    1. With the number of people that would be out of food and supplies on day number one, their shopping day, I would anticipate a measure of anger and protest from the gitgo. And increase from that point on, if they perceive no relief in sight.

  23. Leter rip and see what happens next. Most won’t even believe whats happening, even as it’s happening to them.!!!!

    1. Thats how it is over here, they evacuate people because of a possible tsunami and they are buying beer ice chips and steaks,,,, if the tsunami did hit these dumb shids would have been SOL, in Japan the wave went over 2 miles inland in some places

      1. read somewhere that when SHTF 99.9% of the Sheeple will be suffering from a “Rectal-Cranial Inversion” :-)

  24. I relocated once already from an area where I was going to be paid in IOU’s and relocated to an area which paid me cash. If needed, I would do so again. As I made my plans, I saw others around me saying: “Oh they would never do that”. (Wrong! Pete Wilson did exactly that for over 6. months in 1992.)

    I currently work in healthcare. I would see the first die off being those people that need the medical infrastructure to keep living: Vent patients in ICU, People that are on dialysis.. Within a month, when the meds on hand start to be exhausted: insulin dependent diabetics. the morbidly obese, people with COPD. those people with dementia, those locked up within an asylum. hospital emergency generators ( so marked by the red colored outlets) – will only be putting out electricity for 3 days.

    There comes a point, I would not be showing up for work as a health care worker at my day job anymore. There is the possibility that if there is complete societal breakdown, I may be kidnapped by a warlord in order to treat soldiers or sentries as well as sick family members of the above mentioned warlord. Same with many other skilled workers out there.

    Like I said before, this is a pretty dark scenario and for these reasons stated above, I hope it does not come to pass. In the meantime, I will continue to show up for work and collect my paycheck and buy supplies.

  25. For me the biggest concern is getting home, quickly. Being literally trapped behind a collapsed freeway in the Northridge EQ back in 1994, scarred me for life.

    Lately, what little work I have been getting is out in Redondo Bch and PV area… wrong side of LA, way too far from home. I can only hope that mobile networks and the ‘Waze App’ continue to work for a bit. Waze is an amazing, crowd-sourced, real time Nav system. Just last night, it ‘knew’ about traffic ahead and took me off 91, then back on in a few miles, then again on to surface streets to get around the perpetual imbecile block at 5/605 junction. This app knows where CHP is hiding, running speed and it even knows about minor distractions that cause idiots to slow down and gawk.

    Last night the weird, bouncy route it led me on, actually got me home 33 minutes faster than anticipated at that hour. If that service, and similar ones continue to work, at least for the first 24 hours, many lives will be saved.

  26. EMS World has a Katrina timeline that is quite illuminating

    And this was an anticipated, relatively short-term event, with sufficient time for the prepared to get out of Dodge. For the unprepared it was only misery. Increased of course exponentially when the scope of the disaster exceeded all expectations.

    Darkly humorous was the fact that annual National Association of EMTs and the EMS EXPO took place in NOLA the preceding weekend.

    What’s not included are anecdotes about people finding their relatives, who were able to be evacuated, states away after days of searching (as happened to the elderly relative of a friend of mine.)

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