What’s Your Coronavirus ” Red Flag ” To Raise The Drawbridge?


I don’t know what is going to be the “Red Flag” for everyone here because we all have different criteria.

That being said…

One comment here on Modern Survival Blog reads,

“For me and mine, it will be food riots. If my group hears of riots because of lack of food, we will be closing up shop. That is when the desperation will start and we all (here) know what desperation can and will bring.”

“Ken, would you do an article on what other people are considering as the criteria to close up shop? I’m curious and I think others may find that to be useful…”

Answer: Sure, here it is…

A few of my thoughts first…

It doesn’t get “real” until it’s “in your face”

At least that’s how it is for most people. We’ve already seen examples of that.

When sudden cases and deaths from covid-19 coronavirus popped up in King County, Washington — there was a run on Costco (and other) stores. It wiped out much (and all) of their inventory of toilet paper, paper towels, sanitizers, and other supplies. It wasn’t until then that people there “woke up”. Panicked.

The same holds true in other parts of the country. When coronavirus cases pop up in a region, that’s when people run out to stock up.

Many of us here are smarter than that. We’ve already stocked up. We’re prepared for the most part. Though still going about our lives while being careful with hygiene, contact with others, and common sense precautions against a virus such as this.

How Long Coronavirus Stays On Surfaces – Should We Be Concerned?

When Is ” Bad ” Bad Enough To Close The Gates?

Are you retired? Then it’s a much easier decision, and not as much a problem if you’re reasonably prepared.

Do you go to work every day? Well that certainly is more difficult. You need your job, right?

In China, essentially ALL WORK has stopped. They closed shop. I am now reading reports that major companies here in the US are beginning to have their people work from home if possible. What I’m trying to suggest is that at some point, maybe even YOUR place of employment will be affected by coronavirus and shut down (then you won’t have to make the decision yourself) ;)

Will schools remain open? Are your kids at risk? What about daycare centers?

We all know to stay away from crowds. But others don’t. But they will when it pops up in their location – at which time they suddenly go “oh $hit”…

Rioting or Violence at Stores

The referenced comment above suggest that rioting may be the ” red flag ” that triggers closing the gates.

How bad would it have to be for rioting or “trouble” to begin?

The stores would have to be literally running out of essential supplies that people need – with little expectation of re-supplying soon. Right now, as stores run out of TP (for example), they are able to restock soon afterwards – apparently within a day by the looks of it. Seemingly a different story for sanitizers though.

The problem begins when…

…people stop showing up for work. And/or getting sick themselves. If enough are affected, then entire finely tuned systems can break. And that’s the thing that will set off chain reaction issues.

If you’ve waited too long by then, you will be SOL. If you supply yourself now and we never reach the point of systemic breakdown issues – you will have lost nothing. Why? Because you’re supplied with consumables that will eventually be consumed. Some of which you may save for the sake of preparedness.

Okay I’ve set up the question. Some people here on the blog are curious to hear your own ” red flag ” warnings which will cause you to take extreme precautions regarding coronavirus. It may help to read each-other’s comments on this.

What’s your threshold? What will you need to see or know is happening that will make you raise the drawbridge across your moat?

Tips to survive coronavirus pandemic


  1. Apparently PA and IN have both declared disasters and have called up the guard. How about tonight? I wonder what my LCS will look like in the morning?

  2. Funny I had a co worker ask me the same thing today. He doesn’t prep but his father sent him some articles and it scared him pretty bad.y answer was I really don’t know. As I told him we are in 2 different situations. If needed I could shut down now and be covered for months except for maybe losing my job. He on the other hand has no food storage or m ok money put by to cover his bills if he stopped going to work. A lot of eyes are being opened by this.

    1. That’s interesting. His numbers (~2 million deaths) are similar to my own (between 2 & 3 million deaths) based on currently available statistics regarding death rate and contagion. What I have not attempted to figure out is, by what date or how long… Mike Adams has figured it could be by July 4th. That’s scary.

      1. It is scary. If it plays out as he suggests we may only have as long as May to get “ready”.

        1. Grits, That is better than a prior estimate i had seen… someone in to virus’ data…a private source, told me estimate between Mar.15th and 3rd week in April… we would see significant -as in unable to deny- levels…Feb, was , and March will be- heavy..prep months.April and following- to the extent possible.
          Think about the alternate preps that can be done..With no credit card debt, there are still ways to prepay certain expenses. The last several months i have paid extra amounts on a gas bill. I started w/ 15 over, then/ 30 over… next time i will roll it to 75$ ..or more. for a full months gas service… will have a little breathing room on that bill.paying it ahead by a 100-200$ amount will carry our use thru the summer. Just one of several. … Other possible…Some allowed to pay land taxes and associated bills ahead… Some electric services allow an overpay on every bill.. as funds are available…do every “light”month for a reserve against high/ heavy use.. Some do electricity averaging= same amount is due each month.

      2. Has anyone thought about the fact that most current infected patients are receiving what probably qualifies as “intensive care” and the “death rate” is currently at this level? What happens if we have 10’s of thousands ill and on their own? It wouldn’t take much for hospital beds to be in short supply. what will the death rate be then I wonder?
        Not to be an alarmist but numbers/statistics from our fearless leaders are spun to reflect the desired message, not to present reality. IMHO

        1. At some point I would assume they would set up some kind of MASH style surgical tents or something. Maybe even get some surgical trailers from FEMA our isolation trailers from CDC.

          Speaking of FEMA and CDC, when they start going door to door testing and evacuating people and marking those X’s with numbers on the front doors; how do we know THEY aren’t infected? Are they changing PPE after every house?

          I’m gonna be like, ok if you wanna arrest me, I’ll go peacefully, but you have to quarantine yourself on my front lawn for 2 weeks before you can come anywhere near me! 😝

    2. There’s probably a lot of folks here that can speak to medical modeling better than I, but it seems models are only as good as their assumptions and the amount/accuracy of data available.

      I disagree on several of his assumptions, and especially this one: “The model assumes no strong intervention from anti-viral drugs, vaccines, government quarantines, medical martial law or similar reconfigurations on social mobility.” In other words, and unchecked, out of control firestorm.

      Strong intervention with anti-viral drugs IS being used, especially on hospitalized cases, and social mobility in various areas IS being reconfigured (Seattle, etc).

      Certainly, a model with no limits will terrify, but I don’t think that’s reality. And that’s why mitigation strategies are employed, so we don’t get to that place.

      Unfortunately, we just don’t have enough data at this point to construct a really good model….we don’t even know which strain is active in which countries, the true incubation period, and the true extent of infection, especially since many cases can apparently be asymptomatic.

      In a country as large as ours, it is wise to consider when you might want to pull up the drawbridge, and how long you’ll keep it up. Where I am in a rural location, retired, and well supplied, I could hunker down for a very long time if I felt it necessary. For someone in a city, dependent on a job to pay their rent/utilities and feed their family, the criteria — and mitigation strategies employed — will be different.

      We often talk of “normalcy bias”, but I think there might also be a “SHTF bias” that can come in to play in parts of the prepper community.

      Ken and all the commenters here are doing a wonderful job keeping us updated on what’s going on where, things to consider, and strategies to handle the situation in our little corners of the world. We are all more prepared as a result!

      2 Tim. 1:7 (KJV)

      1. I agree with what you say about mitigation. However, anti-virals and drugs are only good for treatments and therapies. They do nothing to stop the “spread”. I know no one wants it (including myself) but the best way to stop the spread is marshal law since they failed to institute proper quarantines from the start.

        Catching the virus “may” be harmless to most, but NOT catching it is better.

        1. Grits,
          It is my understanding the antivirals , like lomatium, oregano and elderberry that PREVENT replication..kick in,work at first exposure… when one might not realize they have become exposed… this is thought to be before one is shedding virus and being a spreader.. The spreading of virus occurs when in stages of replication.
          With nurses and Doctors, wearing proper PPE- and still getting this mess,. I will try to do what I can-to prevent “catching” this one. Anti-virals are my first and best defense. besides locking the door for 2 years… I just am not ready for that level, for that long..

        2. Just Sayin’
          I could be wrong, but I thought FinallyOuttaCa meant the drugs and anti-virals used by doctors. I think DIY anti-virals are a good idea but I have doubts about oregano. I don’t mean to abuse a stereotype, but don’t they use a lot of oregano in Italy?

          On a side note, I just read on “nbcchicago.com” that O’hare airport in Chicago is testing certain fliers, but they’re not testing fliers coming in from Italy or South Korea.

        3. Grits, I was speaking of Oil of Oregano essential oil. It is strong antiviral and antibacterial. I use it heavily because is one of only things effective for Lyme. It will kill cold sores- ie reduce the size of a sudden sore overnight.. the herb oregano is the same but the plant must be extracted properly( takes huge amounts of plant material to get an ounce of essential oil.) to get oregano oil and then be diluted to oil of oregano. 2 years ago my DH got the flu. he takes scads of vitamins and supplements daily. I take minimal supplements,( no room) i take essential( oil of Oregano) several times a week..4 or 5 days out of 7… have used it for about 8 years.
          I did not get the flu even tho we sleep side by side every night -and are together all day/every day..The trick is knowing how much to take, what can safely be taken and just doing it.

        4. Just Sayin’
          Gotcha 😉 Sorry about my glib comment 😁 I guess I just had Italy on my mind after reading that article and was mad at O’hare for not testing fliers coming in from Italy and South Korea. 🤬

        5. Grits, It’s ok.. I did not specify…..It does seem kinda stupid to not stop all traffic from every one of those things…

        6. Just Sayin’,

          The folks doing the math on this are not taking into account folks like us who are doing elderberry tincture (and other things) as preventatives.

        7. Bam, That is why am encouraging everyone to use the herbal anti virals in rotation so all can have access to some of them continually. ..Lomatium is highly anti viral and dose amount is low. If large amounts of people will use the natural anti virals it will interfere with the replication …theoretically giving the hospitals a break – so the nurses, Doc’s and hospitals are not overloaded. IF IN actuality it makes every illness of people taking it a light cases, it still minimizes hospitalization and spreading of the disease.

  3. My situation is a basically a month to month… for all shopping. WE only go out between times- in a limited manner as our routine.
    We may not know of community involvement of any illness until it is either in full force or past. We do have phone and internet and each person tries to keep up with ongoing situations.
    We have discussed this, but no firm decision has been made.. with 2 weeks as a lag time../incubation time..by the time others decide they have this virus- many will be exposed.Information lag is a real problem with not only informational, but the false negatives and false positives that may occur with ANY test.
    The contacts of the person in Middle Tn are all negative. That is wonderful as long as they remain so.(someone said: to be cleared, 3 negatives… necessary to release from quarantine.?.. that alone is 10K in testing.)..We pray he continues to recover and his responsible isolation is continued esp for his family’s benefit..
    .Will continue putting out community feelers to those who are out and more exposed to community that we are… basic networking.Friends have several contacts in school/retail and have better knowledge base of community situation. This is just one thing, we have done to limit our exposure.
    I am thinking this will not be a sprint, instead a Marathon..
    ALL measures we institute will need to be long term modifications to our routines.
    .That would be another topic- What have you changed to limit your family exposure to illness.

    1. I have to go to work, like many we are not check to check but we are close. I could keep everything going for 2-3 months, but would rather not burn all of our savings. We have been slowly adding food and OTC meds, mostly allergy and NSAIDs to handle fever, to our stores over the course of the last month. This week I intend to add gasoline, propane, 2 cycle oil, bar oil and white gas. Also a grapple load of firewood to insure we have fuel. We are ramping back up our rabbit breeding, just acquired a new doe and she will be bred in two to three weeks, chickens are producing plenty of eggs. I have 2 wells and a pond, so water is not an issue, spring is coming, but vegetable harvest is a long way off…
      As far as closing the portico, when I see panic buying and people in the immediate area are infected, we will button things up and hunker down for a few weeks to a month and see how things shake out…we have an outbuilding set up with heat, a bed, furniture that we intend to use for quarantine if needed for the kid if she decides to get out of Dodge, 2 weeks before she comes into the main house…until then, we are trying to keep to as normal as possible, except for the excessive use of hand sanitizer every time I interact with a customer or handle cash!
      All things must pass, and this, in good time, shall as well.

      1. kevinH sounds good friend. If you have interest Bok Choy will grow you healthy cabbage type greens with a cut and grow again harvest in about 30-40 days until it gets hot and it goes to seed. (Save those nice dry mature seeds friend) and then you can plant for fall harvest in NH. Makes GREAT Kimchee too.

        An window box over your garden will thaw that soil MUCH earlier and thus earlier planting friend. Got any old windows or clear plastic?

        I’m planning on making a North side of my house cool shady garden to see if I can grow Bok Choy all summer also.

        1. Oh yes, a cold frame is in the plans, I have plenty of old single pane windows. The previous owner was a contractor/hoarder so we are good on that! I plan to put in a first crop of spinach, love spinach and I may just add bok-choy…havent had that since my Mom grew it back in the day. Kimchee….mmmm, good stuff…planning try to make Kraut this weekend as well…

        2. me2 — any idea/experience…can one grow Bok Choy in a smallish planter/pot inside the house?

        3. Jane Fox YES you can. In fact I have beside my computer a pot with a STUB of a grocery store Bok Choy I placed in a dish of water until it grew some leaves and roots and then Transplanted it to the pot. Been about two weeks since I started this Experiment and already I have a flourishing 4 inch tall mass of Bok Choy greens.

          BTW I just started another grocery store STUB in water last night.

          I will use the cut and grow again with this experiment. From what I see so far I expect having around 12-16 of these in the sunny bay window should keep me in Bok Choy for quite a while. NOT as a main calorie supplier but healthy side of greens daily.

        4. me2 – very cool. gonna give it a try. any special treatment/fertilizer?


        5. Jane Foxe ordinary potting soil water but don’t drown it. I will watch it’s growth and will probably add some light fertilizer as needed. Plants like Humans need more than water.

          The STUB growing is kind of exciting because #1 I am reusing a bought and eaten Bok Choy I would have dropped into the compost pile. #2 Really fast growth compared to waiting on the seed to grow up.

          I think I’m going to take a sprouting potato next and see just how far advanced I can transplant it when the my garden thaws out for an earlier crop.

          After all they didn’t call Spring “The Starving Season” for nothing back when George Washington was President.

      2. Kevin, Be sure to up your rabbit food.. a litter of grow outs can eat a LOT of food… I have not figured how much yet, but they eat heavy and waste some.having some good quality hay to serve beside it does help significantly… we are breeding ours primarily in winter.. because of heat.. last summer our grow outs took almost 18 weeks because of heat..we carried ice bottles 2 and 3 times a day all summer..

        1. Just Sayin’ and KevinH if you put a worm bed under that rabbit hutch those worms will enjoy the spillage AND you can use them and the excellent soil in your garden (great side dressing for crops) and great for boosting the fish growth in that pond.

          You get more out of your efforts and money for feed thusly.

          Waste not….

  4. DW went to our Dentist today and was told by the staff that they were running out of surgical masks and dental floss because they were both made in China. They will have to close shop within a week and lay off all 12 employees.

    We are pretty much at the point where we will attend Church one more time this weekend, do the Farm Share food distribution on Saturday to the poor folks in our little town, when self quarantine until further notice.

    Pretty certain that there will be riots in the future what with the combo of Corvid-19, an economic down turn and an unstable political situation concerning the 2020 election.

    Stay Safe, God Bless, Rom 8:28

    1. I completely agree with you. Though the virus is concerning, it is not nearly as concerning as how the population will react. I am in SoCal and a few years ago we had a surprise blackout. Within 24hrs there was looting. The virus will do what it is designed to do…people on the other hand, well…they are the wild card.

      If mortality rises to 10% with this elevated R0, then my family and I will call it a day quickly. If mortality stays at 3-4%, then I will wait until I see people starting to panic locally. At which point we will go into lock down.

      Once the virus takes hold and spreads rapidly…the system will become overwhelmed quickly.

      1. Just to mention a point regarding clarity…

        Be careful with the use of the word “mortality”. Why? Because some are now using this to downplay…

        Mortality is deaths divided into population.

        Death rate is deaths divided into cases.

        Big difference.

        The ‘Flu’ death rate is ~ 0.1%

        The covid-19 death rate is ~ 2 to 3 %

        1. I only pointed it out (not picking on you) because I read today that some of the mainstream is sneakily now using “mortality” to downplay. And most of the public won’t know the difference.

  5. We decided that we’ve had enough exposure to people, so we have already self-isolated. This wasn’t a difficult decision because we’re retired and we’re usually occupied with stuff around here anyway. We knew we would be self-isolating, so we planned for it. We made several trips to Costco for about 15 items in each trip (yes, TP was in the cart both times).

    So as of the last week in February, we have gone nowhere except for my husband driving the tractor next door to help move farm implements for someone.

  6. As you stated in the article Ken, i fit the retired catagory (going on two years). Didn’t partially raised the drawbridge but went more gray and under the radar by no large people gathering events, early a.m. store runs, old-f$rt early dinners out. Checked and double-checked all relevant catagories of needs, added new things and built up others, while avoiding the herd. DW still working, just got set up to work from home if needed. Will raise the drawbridge, flood the moat and “release the hounds” if/when it starts to get ugly with “the publîc” having serious/deadly confrontations over “stuff” and funds access.

  7. I’m lucky that I work at home for a large IT company as contract labor to another large company.
    Both have halted all business travel and implemented work from home for all employees that can. The small hands on staff in the data center still have to report to work.

    My home (Pacific Northwest) has hit silly season. My spouse also works at home and is just going out for fresh groceries. Lots of things being cancelled, rescheduled or postponed. The gates not completely up but no one is visiting either. Plenty of preps for earthquake or wildfire.

    I’m in New England taking care of family. I have been increasing preps in case services stop. Not quite as crazy shopping as Seattle, but it is starting to shift a bit. Especially among seniors and caregivers.

    Pretty much staying in now. Trying to shop during slow periods (thanks to google maps). Neighbors all work in health related industries. When they stop coming home from work or no longer go in, then it will be time to stay home.

  8. I’ve been thinking about this. I’m already trying to time my visits to stores, the PO etc to times when they aren’t as crowded. Grocery shopping at 7 AM is a delight. Shopping at a Walmart on the first day of the month is a horror show; not gonna do that again!

    I’m starting to try to avoid any really crowded venues that are indoors.

    What would it take for me to “lockdown”? Probably an indication of positive cases in my county or a neighboring one or maybe things getting out of control at stores etc.

    I really feel for those who are working in retail positions though. While white-collar workers at Amazon etc can work at home, the clerks at Walmart, the dollar store etc have to show up or they don’t get paid. And if they stop showing up then the stores close down and then it gets “interesting”. I sure hope we don’t get to that point though.

  9. That’s a good question. I don’t have a definitely answer for what I would do for sure. It just depends on the situation I’m in at the time I guess. I have a family of 4 where I’m the only one working, so if I stop, the money stops. We aren’t pay check to pay check but not to far off. The good part about my job is, it runs 24/7 and would probably stay open through the whole ordeal. If it couldn’t stay running, the whole community would probably be screwed. I would try to work for as long as I can, while I can. I guess my cut-off would be when I started hearing or witnessing people in my community breaking into houses and stores to the point where the local police can no longer enforce the law. I would stay home to protect my family at that point.

    1. I just saw a press conference in NY the governor is going to make a law to help get people paid and the PUSA is also going to something similar..

  10. Our Family is already limiting exposure in public… I go on off hours for fresh groceries.
    My local Super Market a Massive Chain down here in FL… This week I walked in early morning and my nostrils started to burn… It was very uncomfortable. The store had just opened.
    I wonder if they are fumigating the stores with aerosol anti-virals? I got out of their as soon as possible. Got out side and my nose stopped burning.

    Kids are still in school but it really creeps me that they can all be supper spreaders. Before we even know it due to the incubation period.

    Right now I am monitoring large Urban Areas in The surrounding region. I am looking for school closings to happen their first. Then we will pull the kids.
    But who knows, it will probably be too late by then.

    1. One possibility to consider. In my area, the parents can register their children for home school and simply not “pull the plug” until they make the final decision. All the paperwork is done, and the parents can pull them and officially start homeschool at a moment’s notice.

  11. When someone in your own county is testing positive , would that be a good time to hunker down???? Hubby had to work and kids have school. Very hard decision!

    1. Shawn,
      Ideal would be 3 weeks before the first case known in your county…Ideal will not happen, for most. Me for one can not ” fore-see” that far.would need to continue 3 weeks past the last case.. for people that must work for a paycheck in the public and public school it will not happen…unless all are doing it.
      School CAN be handled at home.There are on line school programs. They have all kinds of specialized courses to pursue different interests of older/higher grades.I home-schooled my DD from 3rd grade when she developed dyslexia.( It took her 18 months to learn to read at grade level again, and we went back to letters and sounds…rote learning. She now is doing well, as an adult..) a complete curriculum is about 350$ (now)for 4th grade…..of the one i used. If one has students in multiple levels . basic course material can be used the next year by the next student, via just purchasing the students workboooks.It is a rewarding endeavor. In a time to keep a family safe and happy ..Priceless.( Don’t need specialized uniforms for school either.)

    2. Im facing the same issue for me they found someone 50 miles north near a large urban center…
      Right now he is expected to make a “recovery” whatever that means.

      Personally when I start to see Case…Case… Case… In one week in my County it is time to pull the kids from school. Unfortunately the dam state is only tested under 1000 people in a state of 10 millions…. so who the F_ck knows? All .gov are scum and failing at their jobs miserably.

      1. White Cracker: This is a Black Swan Event. There are many government workers both medical and non medical working their butts off to make things safer for all of us.
        We all have a stake in this,not just the scum.

  12. Thanks again to Jabba for the suggestion for this thread, and to Ken for quickly putting an article together for us… Ken you are awesome!

    As I’ve written ad nauseum, the timing for when we would have to GOOD is a tough one.

    DH is retired, I went back to work almost solely to provide us with good health insurance. DH is just a couple years too young to go on Medicare, and due to his pre-existing conditions it is insanely expensive to get decent health care outside a group. So, if I had to abandon my job, we would be in a bad place health-insurance wise.

    That said, obviously if it got to a point where we were in jeopardy staying in suburbia, I would call in sick and we would get on the road. If I lost my job because of that, we’ll, we’d just have to figure it out.

    What would trigger that? For sure it would be if area schools started closing, or if local large crowd sports events got cancelled, or if people located closer to us started getting sick, or local civil unrest. But, that may also be too late. We would have to be put before things got bad, and things can certainly get bad quickly.

    With cases already in CA I figure any day could be the day, and have been rushing my preps to completion (as best I can). And, if it settles down and we don’t need to go I have a lot of t.p. on hand – plus lots of other preps we will slowly consume and replace.

    Thanks to all who are sharing your thoughts and ideas here – it’s a big help!

    1. SoCalGal
      Im at about the same place,
      If the local schools are closing im stayin home, maybe even sooner, just depends, the way things are i dont have much reason to go anywhere anyway, but is still going to be a wait and see

  13. What’s I gonna take?
    I dunno.
    Life is at its norm here…now.
    We both work full-time, so we are both exposed to any contagion.
    If the social structure would collapse in our area. Yep definitely staying home.

    I work in automotive, which is struggling, prior to this virus. Non replaced work force, buy outs, cut backs.
    It will take a helluva lot to make them decide to shut down.
    I keep continplating on whether or not to express my concern of all this. I assume management would have the same thoughts of me as of many here and my postings.

    Chinese Defense Minister, Wei Fenghe

    The other half is medical, thankfully not directly affiliated with the hospital

    What will it take? Will it be too late?
    I still don’t know.

    I have caches of cashes and provisions to protect what is ours and ……provisions….for awhile.

    Could be an excuse to find different employment…..

    Keep your immune defenses up.

    signing off

  14. Just imagine if one of the so called celebrities or a athlete is diagnosed with the 🦠
    The media will be all over it and send the sheepal into a all out free for all
    Stay alert and something isn’t feeling right pay attention to your subconscious

    1. Whoa, I had not thought of that! You are right. As soon as a big-time celebrity or sports player gets it…

    2. I’ve been thinking about all the rich and famous who just recently arrived back home to Hollyweird after going to Milan for the fashion shows… One of them posted a video of themselves wearing a mask on a plane. I’m sure they’re all staying home while their personal assistants, housekeepers, etc. do all their shopping for them.

      1. I do not know if I should say “luckily”, but this virus is an equal opportunity infector. So those celebs could have infected staff who infect them. No one appears to be immune, except maybe the children.

  15. As many have said, it is a tough decision. I would’ve already “raised the drawbridge” except that I really don’t want to lose my job. Just yesterday the company asked each of us if we have internet access at home. They wanted to know for “disaster preparedness.” (Right now, they have it set up so that no one can access anything from home; it helps keep the company from getting hacked and it helps us all have better family lives because we’re not allowed to work extra hours.) I really hope they send us home soon, since much of my job could be done remotely. Someone at work died last week after a “short illness.” It’s not someone I know (large company), so I have no idea if there’s any possibility it could have been an untested case of Covid19.

    Without a doubt, if there is rioting or I have reason to think I need to stay home to protect my family and my house/provisions, I will. I don’t want to wait that long, though. I have a feeling that whenever I do decide to stay home, I will be kicking myself for not doing it two weeks earlier. Except for milk, I’m not planning on making any more store runs. I could use powdered milk instead, but I’d much prefer not to do that until I have to. I’m planning on going to church for two more weeks because of commitments I’ve made, but I think I’ll stay home and watch the online service after that.

    Someone at work today was saying that they were so glad that the newest reports say that for most people this is no worse than the flu. I agreed that it was good news, but pointed out that the main difference is that the flu kills one in a thousand, while this kills one in thirty. He got quiet for a moment and then said, “Wow. That IS a big difference.” Wake up!

    1. Wendy,
      Those people that say not to worry because it’s not that bad really irritate me. They’re only thinking of themselves. They’re not thinking about passing it on to others, possibly their own relatives. I’m currently a caregiver for my elderly heath challenged mother. If I can avoid someone giving it to me, I can avoid giving it to her.

      1. And most people truly only care about themselves. That’s how I see it, in general…

  16. I just hope the UPS guys keep working till i get my new 22 upper delivered! That way i have a new toy!

    1. Kulafarmer heck yea! I’m going to pick up a Brownells BRN-22 receiver tomorrow for a build I’m starting. What upper did you end up going with?

  17. Unfortunately if I don’t show up to work I probably don’t have a job. However I normally do our grocery shopping/Wally World trips first thing in the morning on the weekends. Normally i follow this pattern simply because I’m a morning person and like to avoid the crowds, but I’ll definitely be getting there even earlier now to make sure I’m one of the first in and first out.

    Im sure some will disagree but I’m not too overly concerned about the actual virus at this point, think that as long as your eating well, exercising, following good hygiene habits and avoiding large crowds you’ll most likely avoid infection…..I am however much more concerned that this could act as the the catalyst that sets this country into a downward spiral. Stock market is dropping, the fed is on the ropes, socialism is knocking on our front door, and the tension between left and right is at a historical high. I really do pray that all of those other people out there who have been on the fence about following a more preparedness lifestyle use this series of events to become more self sufficient.

  18. When mortality rate is broken down by risk groups, I don’t seem to be in much danger if I were to become ill. Likewise with those that I usually come into contact with.

    Our county health department and county commissioners are active on FB and have done well with keeping us informed in the past. They just created a new page dedicated to covid-19. It’s one more source for information.

    I work from home and have a nice supply of things on hand. When I do go out, I am paying close attention to personal hygiene and to the state of others around me. I don’t think that I would self isolate unless there was some kind of civil unrest.

      1. Ken, it really is. I am very thankful that most of my work right now is from the home office. Part of my livelihood depends on me being present in large groups of people from all over the country, but the next event like that is still a few months away. I’m really hoping that this virus proves to be “seasonal”, as most of my high-risk events occur during the summer.

  19. We keep as informed as we can about the spread of the virus in our state , WA, and today there is the first confirmed case in Eastern Wa. in Grant County.
    We are retired and have adequate stores to stay home for an extended time. We seldom go to restaurants ,don’t do movies or sport events and have now limited our trips away from home. Most of our socializing is through our church.
    I feel that the economic spinoffs caused from this event will trigger a lot of ugliness between people and I think it will escalate fast. Looting ,robbing, burglary ,it could get ugly very quick. Food shortages may be the trigger. At the first incident of rioting type behavior anywhere in our region, the drawbridge goes up and we stay home for the duration

  20. I just came down with a condition that might require some hospital tests, so this is a hard decision. There are still no outbreaks in our state and there is still T pee on the shelves. But no gloves, masks, or hand sanitizers. ( i got the last 3 in our Walmart- they were hiding behind the we are out sign) Old man says when the virus spreads to about 10%, I think when there are cases in our state. We are pretty isolated anyway, although 3 couples just got back from a Caribbean cruise and a couple from WA state were visiting in our church. And of course they sat next to us!

    1. old lady
      If you can order it on line, would recommend Carnivora limp gland and other bottle. Have dh on it because he has a low immune system, and have been blessed he has not contracted anything. He takes 10 drops of each every day but we worked up to this amount.
      If you are thinking about starting it maybe 2-3 drops in small amount of fluids, I use 5 drops of each in water, swallow and wash down with more water. Not a bad taste, but I know it is there.
      Sweet gum & Elderberry tinctures/Activz colloidal silver lozenges

      {{hypothetical speaking}}using different anti viral/anti bacterial every day might give one the chance to fight this unknown. Learned from JS, she is better versed in these mediums than I ever will be.

      Acdh & I are praying it is cold, and nothing more for you.

  21. I have a development, “which has two wells that is a public water system” that supplies water to all the homes. I have had many of the people contact me about their concerns about the Coronavirus and the impact it could have on their water and sewer, if the power were to be compromised. I found it rather amazing, ” this was the first time they actually thought about what would happen” if they were cut off from essential supplies. I reassured them, “we have a generator hook up with plenty of diesel” if this were to occur. Some were in full panic mode, while others had legitimate questions. Most were going to wait until the schools close down or their places of employment officially closed, before they bunker in. One family, “decided to immediately isolate the mother in a camper” while she works as a nurse at a local hospital. Their logic was, “she couldn’t infect the kids” if she becomes sick. There is also a lot of wait and see, with little real plans for action. This is why many people will panic, “if they even think” there is going to be run on certain supplies.

  22. My “ohh shit”????
    When the local newspaper starts printing 6 “blank pages” in the paper.
    Sounds stupid?
    Australia is now doing that, why you ask???
    TP shortage.
    Truely? When the hot/warm weather hits and the Virus is still expanding, most .gov are saying the warning temperatures will slow or stop the Virus. I dont agree, but what do I know.
    People PLEASE don’t panic, and keep preparing like your life depends on it, it just may.

    1. NRP
      Not sure if you saw my post the other day but did ya see where the semi carrying a load of toilet paper 🧻 caught on 🔥 in Australia

      1. D B Cooper

        What kind of a guy goes and ruins another mans fishing vacation with scandalous news of a TP truck bonfire? … or bails out of the ass-end of a B727 at cruise altitude, for that matter? The mind wonders.

        1. It just makes his trailer full of toilet paper 🧻 more valuable since there’s less available right

  23. I’m a risk taker. We booked a flight for when we estimate the crises to be at it’s peak. I’m gambling that it will be cancelled and we will be financially rewarded by the airline with free tickets at a later date plus reimbursed for the cancelled flight.

  24. Wow! I think the red flag is starting to go up here in North Idaho now. I went to Wally World early this morning, and compared to last week, it was crazy. It looked like a hurricane went through the store. There were empty shelves everywhere. When I got to the TP isle, from front to back it was almost empty, with a few packages scattered here and there. It was enough to make NRP cry. I think it’s just about time to start keeping my peepers open, and stay home more, away from crowds.

    1. BBC,
      which WW? Honeysuckle of PF?
      Just curious as I need to make another run in the next day or two

  25. Hi All, Posting from the north Seattle ‘burbs. My company has told those of us who can work from home to do so, however, contrary to the national MSM, people are NOT dying in the streets here. Yes, like many other places, bleach, isopropyl alcohol, hand sanitizer, etc., is mostly sold out, however most all else is well in stock. I have not noticed much ‘panic’ buying, however I am not a Costco member so don’t known what is happening at those places. I also don’t see much of a ‘panic’ attitude among the local populace. Maybe things will get worse, or stay the same ‘new normal’. I don’t know. I do know that I have learned much from this site, both Ken’s post (Thank You) and the many commenters (Thank You).

    The Seattle metro area has a noticeable contingent of f 20-30-somethings that really have not experienced adversity, or demonstrate the ability to apply critical thinking skills (witness the many that are ‘feeling the Bern), or think much past the immediate moment. Will be interesting to see how they react if things get worse and supplies run low (ref. Ken’s ‘when the truck stop’ post). Think may be beneficial to stock up on some precious metals (copper, brass, and lead).

    1. DLS,
      Nice to see ya posting again. How are the parents doing? I am a few miles north of ya up in Arlington area. Costco up here was crazy last week when I ventured by. Fred Meyer is out of all Clorox products and the like, but as you say everything else looks good. I did notice a few things have higher than normal prices, but that may be because of inflation.
      Hubby works for the Lazy B and was supposed to fly out to UAE on Sunday, but all trips have been cancelled. Did a happy dance about that.
      Anyway, nice to hear from ya and hope all is well with you and yours

  26. Local girl was participating in the study abroad program in Italy and has just returned home
    Pray she and her family have the good sense to be low key and stay home but they’ll probably have a party and have friends and family over to hear about her adventure

  27. Article in CNN with Doctors advice is if you are over 60 stay at home as much as possible. Plan on going to food store late at night or when they first open. I bought a chest freezer and plan on stuffing it good. Never done it but I plan on making my own bread. Almond milk can be made in a blender, so will do that also. Police response times might be a lot longer so I will practice with firearms. Some peoples around here aren’t so good!

    1. G Dog:

      A chest freezer was one of my wisest purchases last year. Don’t skimp. Get the 7+ cf, generally the largest of the three most common sizes – you’ll fill it faster than you might think. They are quiet and efficient and use a lot less power than an upright with front opening doors. Consider investing 10 bucks in an RF wireless thermometer that will alarm you if it loses power.

  28. People at my local WalMart bring dogs into the store nowadays, sometimes they put the dogs in the cart with the kids. People in Asia spitting everywhere, people in Arabia wiping themselves with their (left) hand… I don’t know, man.

    It looks like recovery does not mean immunity- it may even be easier to get reinfected. So this thing may just keep going around, getting worse. And if it mutates, any vaccine may become ineffective?

    “Ladies and Gentlemen, take my advice.
    Pull down your pants, and slide on the ice.”
    – Dr. Sidney Freedman

  29. My last trip out was yesterday. I finally got the call that my glasses were in. I had to sit there waiting for about 20 minutes. I kept my hands clasped in my lap so I wouldn’t touch anything. While there I saw that they had put 2 bottles of hand sanitizer on the counter for people to use. During that time, not one person used them. I watched the staff continually touch their faces and eyes. Considering that the eye doctor in China that first raised the alarm died I was surprised to see these people so oblivious to the current situation. Then I hear last night that we now have confirmed cases in our state with about 200 or so asked to self quarantine. I’m done.

  30. If people in more rural and suburban areas can use their good judgement they can stop the spread if they use PPE. People in big cities tend to have poor judgement and hopefully they will be the ones getting it and succumbing to it. People in big cities really don’t have anywhere to go while those in rural areas have plenty of distance between people.

  31. I live in a major dysfunctional city,racial strife,criminality just under the surface,no sense of community or common sense.
    Half the population dumb as rocks and the other narcissistic predators .
    The gib me and dindu mindset very pervasive .
    I’m more worried about my neighbors than the plague,with one young schizophrenic government SSI slacker smoking weed 24/7 on the left and a new illegal immigrants on the right with a large family….I will always be the Gringo neighbor.
    I have said maybe twenty words in the last two years.
    Not trying to be anti social but because I’m a foreigner in my own land .
    One speaks broken English while the other neighbor (Anglo) has a clouded druggie temperament.
    Both neighbors will be a major liability, one with too many mouths to feed the other with mental issues.
    Across the street its’s about the same.

    I’ve been prepping for a month with Dollar Store food stocks or almost expired vitamins form the local swapmeet,money is tight so I do what I think I can with limited resources (money)
    I also have a urban mini farm in the front yard surrounded by a fence…fruit trees and vines.
    Every empty dirt space now has something edible growing.
    In all seriousness I could go on starvation rations for a year.
    Great hobby during good times but I feel I will have to cut everything down as not to be a target.
    The ancient Avocado tree will be a major liability .

    I can’t afford the backwoods Boomer white fight homestead so I basically live in a urban Fort Apache until this blows over.
    I still work so will have to wait for the very last moment/paycheck to go into lock-down.
    I can’t see any how this will play out with so many unpredictables.

    I envy the Chinese with the totalitarian communal mindset.
    I’m prepped but the world around me is an urban wasteland .

    1. You can keep the communist mindset thanks,,,
      But dont think you can dump that crap on the rest of the country,
      True Americans are not interested in that bullshit

      1. not communist mindset ,I just know my fellow Americans will chimp-out.
        No law and order,just selfish anarchy.
        So wave that flag somewhere else

      2. not communist mindset ,I just know my fellow Americans will chimp-out.
        No law and order,just selfish anarchy.

    2. The Gringo
      I’m in a similar situation to you. I’m in that hell called Chicago. At this point I don’t think I’m much of a target though. I’ve been prepping for awhile and did it grey man style. I stocked up slowly over time by just adding a little to each shopping trip. Only problem is figuring out how to get rid of the trash once we’re a few months into this siege. The neighbors won’t have to be very clever to notice that I’m the only one taking out trash. So I’ll have to figure out some kind of alternative for trash. The building doesn’t have a fire place so I can’t even burn it.

      1. For trash: get a shredder for cardboard and paper; you can burn it in a BBQ grill if you can access one or wet it down and flatten it out. wash your cans out and either squash them or layer them inside each other or use them for seed pots. You can also cut them up with wire nips so they are flat and you can take them out if you go to work.

        1. BBQing it would be seen by neighbors. Just as bad as taking it to the can. Maybe I’ll just toss it in the car, drive off somewhere and throw it in a dumpster. Just don’t want any evidence in my garbage cans that we have food when other people will be out scrounging for food.

        2. Grits,
          That is a good point and I have read articles about it. Grey man that… at night I would load and discard it. BUT be careful, there are going to be others doing other nefarious activities at night also.

      2. “I’m the only one taking out trash.”

        who’s going to be picking up trash anyway?
        A garbage man picking up snot rags would have to be suicidal

  32. This is a tough one. I don’t work outside the home. My husband could easily do his job from home. Youngest son is in public school, adult daughter lives at home, works at a farm supply store, and is taking classes at a community college. Our adult son does not live with us, works at an auto parts store, and is taking classes at a community college. The daughter would be ok if she couldn’t work, because she lives at home, but it would be a hardship for our son. Other than us paying for school, he is completely financially independent from us.

    We have the mindset that if we got it, we would probably be ok, but we have others in our life that we could spread it to that it would not be ok. My father, FIL, and our closest friends that my kids consider to be their grandparents (they are 20 years older than us) all have health issues. FIL has COPD and lung cancer. We could stay away from the friends and FIL, but my parents depend on help from me for many things.

    My guess is that my husband’s work will close the doors before our schools do. We are well set to stay home and not leave the house, but my parents are not prepared and would expect me to “fix it”.

  33. Well – as the writer Rudyard Kipling said :
    “There are 3 things you can never have too much of :
    Good Books, Good Wine, and Good Ammunition.”

    1. JustWatchin, read on Brietbart today that ammo sales are through the roof. My guess is that White Cracker, NRP, and Dennis are stocking up. I wonder if liquor sales are too?

      Heard from a neighbor that our Lowes are totally sold out of food grade buckets, GO FIGURE?

  34. Once we self isolate there is a chance someone still gets sick. So, I spoke with my dad (a retired ER Dr) and asked him, “in your opinion, if we stay at home and one of us get sick, how bad would that person have to get before I should take them to the hospital?”

    His opinion was O2 saturation below 92%, temp above 104 or really struggling to breathe.

    Thought I would pass that along to y’all.

    1. Kynase – thank you.. This is good info. Guess the other qualifier might be if the person has some serious previous medical needs/condition. They (the authorities ) are saying the most ill/dead had mostly pre existing conditions.

    2. Kynase, Thank you for sharing that information.I checked amzn, and their most popular O2 saturation fingertip monitor is this one:

      Zacurate Pro Series 500DL

      They’re inexpensive enough, I just ordered one for us. Good to have (just like having a fever thermometer)

    3. Kynase
      Df hired a RN nurse to instruct all their employees on what they could do, but especially what NOT to do.

      Then she purchased pulse ox’s for all the employees-owners to carry with them at all times. Instructed them to check their 02 levels at least four times a day, so that they would have a normal range. If they started feeling off or short of breathe to check the stats on their oxygen levels. Said would be a good precursor to them coming down ill.

      The other containment protocol, no outside shoes into the business. If something is required the ‘inside’ employees will locate said item bring to the outside of the building for the outside employee to collect. Creating a barrier between the two so that the pathogen would not be inside the building.

      Packages go into a container on the loading dock to be sterilized before being allowed entry into the building. There is a lot more which I can not disclose but gives you a idea the length the employer is trying to provide for their workers safety and health.

      1. It’s surprising how cheap oxygen saturation monitors have become. Amazon has them as does eBay. Less than $20.00.

    4. Kynase,
      Thanks it is nice to know the parameters that ER/ Licensed people use… those change from time to time..
      I was thinking about the effect of anti pyretics on the body response. to infection in general..and info i had gleaned.. One of the Drs channels recommended to use cooing cloths./to lower body temp.
      With this vral targeting the lungs and being a main danger we need to have- Some ways to keep to keep the airways clear..things like mucinex, and natural expectorants. hot liquids things like hot herbal tea’s and coffee- Peppermint and oil of oregano mixed in a chest/ foot rub will open the airway quickly..(IF you think you may be caring for someone with trouble clearing airway you need a suction machine and sterile suction wands, catheters.thankfully i had those and knowledge to use… These and other things enabled my DM to live when she was sent home to die by hospital staff it would enable her to sleep for 5-6 hours each time.). Coffee can also help with clearing airways.- especially used in moderate amounts by asthmatics.
      My concern is when – should this follow the models expected- there is no hospital vacancies of beds for all of the “other ” illness that sends ppl to ER?admissions offices. I can see that deaths from other illness- will also occur… heart attacks, lack of required medications for blood sugar and blood pressure.. If you have these you should consult a herbalist.. there are some natural things that can be used. for these two most common problems…as efffective as prescribed medication- in some cases, that prescription does no good if it is NOT in stock …

  35. Have a family member in the Denver metro area that has always sorta poo poohed my prepper attitudes. Called night before last in a bit of panic after being told by a VERY DEMOCRATIC official that we have the virus here in CO. NOW believes in her parents’ practices? Is that like, unbelievable? LOL
    Anyway, was told to be extra careful, glad that we live outside the urban areas (though that was a bone of contention when we first sold the mountain to move to another rural area) Worried that because we are “old” we could be part of the “compromised”. HAHAHAA
    Told them NOT to worry about us, that we have a “quarantine” area established for when they or others arrive!

  36. Good Morning. Couple of things:

    1. The idiot panic buying finally hit my wife’s supermarket yesterday – she came home looking like a war refugee.

    2. I’m sick, hit me overnight.. Sore throat, dry cough, achy; so far no fever. I’m throwing everything I have at it. Vit C – several grams, elderberry, silver, nano-copper, etc.

    1. tmc, alternate silver and elder both on a q 4h, take one of them q 2h.around the clock for at least 3 days.- Hold the silver in your mouth sublingual and buccal/like a chaw…for 3-5 min then swallow. effective quicker that way… we had one with 20ppm and used 15-20cc…. til symptoms break.. .. robitussin, or oregano for expectorant.Tamiflu if you have it in stock/sweetgum tincture is home made version.peppermint essential oil and oil of oregano about 4-6 drops of each in a tablespoon of olive oil makes a chest rub will work as an expectorant and open airways.see other post

    2. TMcGyver, I hope you feel better quickly. Sleep. Drink fluids. Don’t start exerting yourself too much too soon. You know the routine.

    3. I’m so sorry to hear you’re sick tmcgyver!
      If you feel like it, let us know how you’re doing.

      1. Lets bring the sympathies over to the open-forum (no offense intended). Thanks… I just started a thread there.

  37. Kind of figure that sooner or later, if a virus bug is going to get past, over, around, or through my drawbridge, then I’d possibly be better off following the recommended prudent preventative protocols rather than totally closing up shop. Which, IMO, would seem to possibly lead to more problems than the virus itself.
    If it came to ” closing up shop “, I assume that there would be some very well paid individuals, volunteers, step forward to take up the slack, in order to keep the system from collapsing. Theorizing, of course, albeit, $$ is a great motivator. Cha-ching.

    1. I did read that in Wuhan China, the funeral directors were paying the equivalent of $143 an hour to get people to work for them as they are overwhelmed.

      1. Peanut that sounds almost like OUR San Francisco pays for Human Fecal Removal from their sidewalks.

        Employees of San Francisco’s “Poop Patrol” are set to earn $71,760 a year, plus an additional $112,918 in benefits, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

        If it wasn’t so far away AND Wu Flu season I’d buy myself a sailboat in that area to live on and score some quick cash this summer. Not the best job but a honest high wage job eh?

        Have to pay enough to draw the workers Peanut.

        1. That was the only enticement that people were willing to risk their lives to go into Wuhan.

  38. Great subject, one I know we have all considered. I think a lot of the scenarios we discussed were more wham, bam, time to shut the doors. But this is a creeping, crawling pace that I know I have not thought much about.

    I am not concerned for myself but my DH who has an auto immune disease. He is not ready to close the doors and stay in. I would have closed up shop 2 weeks ago if it were not for him. I keep thinking we will know more next week, or in 2 weeks, so we should say in and wait it out. He is not as concerned…..

    So, me: I would have become a recluse by now. We have seen that this virus has a potential infection incubation period of up to 3 to 4 weeks. Him: not yet. I guess I need to figure out when his time table is and what event that will be.

  39. I’ll pull up the drawbridge when the people start reanimating.

    Life is too short to spend it in fear. So pretend it is flu season and have good hygiene. If you’re not only still alive by the “Marvels of Modern Medicine” the chance of death is unlikely for the kind of people that frequent this site.

    About 100 people die in the US each day while riding on the roads. Think about that for a minute. It is true that the trained and prepared fair better on the roads. I reckon the same is true for anything like this.

    If I was an Old getting half my daily calories from my medicines and living in a sunset village full of the venereal diseased (highest concentrations of STDs are now in the retired) in Italy… Yeah, I’d be worried.

  40. “Man on foot, always suspect”. I don’t know who said that but going forward it makes since not to trust others. We shut it down then did a curb side pick up for supplies last Thursday. We topped off our freezer. Now we wait for the world to change. My wife and I are over the hill and can’t afford to risk future exposure. The TV is my friend. When I have tried to worn my real close friends they are supportive but even though they know about the virus, somehow they have not headed the warning signs.The way I see it, the problem is, the window for prepping is over. Time to hunker down and survive.

  41. One positive case in the county just to the north was announced yesterday.

    This noon the radio announcer read messages from all the groups holding meetings, book fairs, pancake breakfasts, fundraisers, films, and other gatherings this weekend and next.


  42. Headline….

    “Coronavirus: Northern Italy to quarantine 16 million people”

    wow…coming to a theatre near you/me?

  43. Well, my line in the sand has arrived, 3-8-20. Yesterday, 3-7-2020, at 3:30 PST, we have a confirmed case in my county. Two more trending more tests. The filth from King county has arrived. Just 12 miles from my homestead.

    Today, 3-8-20, I have started to load my 5th wheel, with my personal and bugout supplies. Most of my supplies are pre-packed. I stocked my bug-out location this fall with 16tons of supplies, so it’s ready to go. But, my bug-out location is 850 miles away.

    I have NOT decide to bug out just yet, I’ve self quarantined since Nov 2019 any way, because I just did not want to get the flu, which is epidemic in this college town. I have a well stocked homestead, and a lot of family here, and I’m the Patriarch of this large family. BUT, I know I have underlining health conditions, that if I get infected, the virus will probably kill me.

    I thought we would suffer, an economic crisis, instead of a pandemic, although pandemic was #2 on my SHTF list. So, I stocked my bug-out location, just in case.

    I’m calm, determine, and trust my Heavenly Father. He will be the one, to light my fire to bug out.

    Here on my homestead? No one in at all. PERIOD. Even some of my family, who, unfortunately, have jobs in town. My driveway is now blocked with 3500ld cement barriers, all doors stay locked 24/7, no outside contact, PERIOD.

    I have retracted the drawbridge.

    1. ‘Stand my Ground’ said, “I thought we would suffer, an economic crisis, instead of a pandemic, although pandemic was #2 on my SHTF list.”

      My gut tells me we’re going to see both. It feels like the perfect storm. COVID 19 popping the bubble. I hope I’m wrong. I really do.

      I have a feeling the deaths will become very apparent by May-June, due to the way ‘exponential’ works.

      It’s happening, but hardly anyone notices, because the numbers aren’t big enough yet. While this might not literally be exponential, it may likely follow a similar curve up.

      Oh man I hope my gut (and back of the envelope numbers) are wrong on this. Maybe it will just, stop. (but that’s “denial”).

      1. It is currently doubling across the world every four days. The numbers in the US aren’t clear yet, but I suspect it’s doing the same thing here.

        If it continues to double every four days, everyone in the world is infected by mid May. If it follows the same pattern as it seemed to in China, it should hit peak (not be over, but hit peak) by end of April at 100 million infected across the world.

        1. Believe me, I’m following it. The majority are in the DENIAL phase. Angry. Attacking others who don’t jive with their point of view. Classic signs.

        2. Still seriously at risk are the elderly with underlying causes. Not that there won’t be exceptions, but it’s not like all of those infected are going to die from it.
          ” Keep calm and carry on “

      2. Ken:
        A couple of things,
        The economy IS growing to crash, already started, as soon as the Feds stop pumping in billions it’s toast.

        Second, the stadium is about 1/16 full.

        Three, and I really hate saying this, but we had best put off the MSB celebration at your place this June, maybe a couple of years from now

        Four….. the fishing is GREAT!!!!! Maxed out the limit of Rainbow Trout 2 days in a row.

        1. Oil has crashed as of today. Shipping is in the deeps. The stockmarket is doing a yo-yo performance and has already crashed in some areas of the world. People who know nothing about HOW to prepare or what to store are buying what they think they’ll need in the future.

      3. Ken

        Over the years, I think I’ve got most of the bases covered,not all, MOST.

        I’m very well prepared, in most categories.

        From here on out, to who knows what, My Heavenly Father is going to guide my efforts. I Believe in His power.

        God Bless You and all the other MSB Patriots.

        Holy Sheep sh-t, hold my beer and watch what happens next.!! WAKE UP LEROY, YOU AIN’T NEVER SEEN A WRECK LIKE WE ABOUT TO HAVE.!!!

    2. Good for you Stand. I just hope that the virus can’t find your BOL 😯

  44. I keep reading bits and pieces about what this country or that is doing to try to slow virus transmission. I decided to look for some info by country to see their latest news (I know ZH has some, but I like to read from more than 1 source). Here are a few snippets from a variety of sources (published today or yesterday):

    In Italy (as we all know, now pretty much nationwide shut-down):
    Italian doctors celebrated one small victory after the first patient diagnosed with the illness, a 38-year-old Unilever worker, was moved out of intensive care and began breathing on his own. But the virus’ rapid spread was forcing them to operate like war-time medics, triaging patients to decide who get access to scarce ICU beds.
    “Unfortunately we’re only at the beginning,” said Dr. Massimo Galli, head of infectious disease at Milan’s Sacco hospital.

    Austria is introducing further restrictions. University teaching is being suspended, as well as indoor events involving more than 100 people and outdoor events with more than 500. “The fewer social contacts there are, the better prepared the hospitals will be,” said Mr Kurz (Chancellor). The health minister said Austrians had to change their lives for the next few months.

    With 42 cases of Covid-19 now confirmed in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to enforce complete closure of Israel’s borders. Every Israeli who returns from overseas as of Monday at 8 p.m. must enter a 14-day home-quarantine. Tourists currently in Israel have been given a 72-hour reprieve, until Thursday night, before they, too, must enter quarantine. Foreign citizens will be granted entry into Israel only if they can meet the requirement of a 14-day home quarantine.

    Czech Republic:
    The Czech Republic is to close schools indefinitely and ban events hosting more than 100 people in new measures to contain the coronavirus, its prime minister said on Tuesday. “We understand this will be very unpleasant for people, but we want to prevent, by all means, what happened in Italy from happening here.” PM Babis

    St Patrick’s Day parades, including the Dublin parade, will not proceed. This is based on the advice of the National Public Health Emergency Team. The situation in relation to other events & mass gatherings is under review & will be guided by public health advice

    As France confirms 1,126 coronavirus and 19 deaths, gatherings of more than 1,000 people in the country are being banned, French Minister of Health Olivier Véran announced Sunday.

    1. SoCalGal,
      Did you forget to write about the US? I didn’t see any recent news that the US is working to slow coronavirus down.


      1. MT,
        Got stuck on a project that couldn’t wait. My original intent was to have a 2nd post comparing what’s going on elsewhere to here.

        I’m betting none of the countries I talked about thought the virus would get to them in such serious ways. Now they are starting to take serious actions (likely too late?). And what have our leaders learned from this? Until yesterday, DiBlasio was still determined to hold the NY St Patrick’s Day parade. Maybe he will be forced to back off that position now.

        And there are still lots of sporting events with huge crowds every day. And how many concerts have yet to be cancelled? Broadway shows? When do we start getting serious about school closures? And when do we expand travel restrictions for those coming here from areas with more recent outbreaks? Or is it too late to even try?

        Many of the things “we” are doing continue to appear to be reactive, far fewer are proactive. It’s time to start more proactive activities to try to slow the spread. At this pace, it won’t be long before our ER’s and ICU’s are overrun as large numbers get sick at the same time.

        1. So Cal Gal
          “Or is it too late to even try?”
          Hate to be the downer here but Kens Stadium is getting fuller by the day.
          Do NOT wait till it’s 1/2 full to do something.
          As I know you’re not waiting, but obviously MILLIONS are, look at the Panic Buying,,, and seemingly total lack of Preparedness.
          Remember the conversations of “3-5% are prepared for more that 3 days?
          Well here’s your proof.

        2. NRP,
          I expect the sheeple to be unprepared, but the lack of preparedness at the local, state and fed level is unforgivable.

          We’ve had multiple shots at getting it together with SARS, MERS and even Ebola… so there’s no excuse for ANY city, county, state or Fed agency to not have a plan ready to roll out.

          I agree the stadium seems to be filling much faster now. And still the w h o has not officially declared a pandemic. Irresponsible to say the least.

        3. SoCalGal, You answered the question!! Thanks. (BTW I’m disgusted with the news that Grits posted at open forum about Sacramento County.)

          Hospitals don’t have the ability to treat many coronavirus patients, so they’ll be screened, triaged, and the majority will be sent home.Very troubling — ‘not sick enough’ and elderly will either be turned away or placed in “‘facilities” like tents or trailers.

        4. MT,
          Just took a minute to read the Sacramento story. WTH!
          We all read how people are infected before showing symptoms, and I thought the CDC and NIH are saying social distancing is an important tool to slow the spread. So Sacramento is getting away with not supporting home quarantine now? They are throwing in the towel before the fight barely starts? Where are the state and fed agencies? Or, did Sacramento try to get state or fed help and told none is coming so they just gave up on containment? Unbelievable.

  45. I am 80 yr. old, the supposed average age for elder deaths from COVID-9. As little as they know about the virus, I don’t know how that number has been determined. I am in good health except for atrial fibrillation. I have been listening to the public information provided by the TV. My impression is that not enough information has been provided to characterize the virus sufficiently. The common flu appears to be MUCH MORE virulent so far, and yet the news media appear to be determined to SCARE the public without sufficient warrant to do so. This causes people to panic and go overboard before we know the virus’s full character.
    Obama’s Rahm Emmanuel comment to “Never let a good crisis go to waste comes immediately to mind.

    I have decided to treat this virus just as I would treat the flu. All my long life I have only had the flu probably <12 times regardless of whether I have had the current flu shot or not. It does not appear that it matters whether I have had the shot or not. I have never had the pneumonia shot. On one occasion I got full flu symptoms immediately after taking the flu shot, while my wife and daughter, who always caught every illness to come to town, took the same shot and had no symptoms (go figure!!) at all. Therefore I will treat this as just another form of the flu, meaning I will not worry about it most of the time. I do wash my hands often, but not in an obsessive compulsive disorderly (OCD) manner. The common FLU to date annually KILLS MORE people worldwide than this virus. Only when we know whether the COVID-19 causes MORE DEATHS WORLDWIDE annually than the flu typically does will I worry about changing my ways. By that time we may have a vaccine for the new virus. If so, hopefully it will be more effective than the current annual flu vaccines have exhibited!!!

    1. R. D. Roseborough — all good , but maybe a little extra on your part wouldn’t hurt …It may help…

      as Ken says, get lots of rest, do a bit more to destress (a good movie/chats with friends/pet a pup?)…

      and maybe take extra vitamins/herbals?

      doesn’t hurt to give oneself a little extra insurance, so to speak

    2. R. D. Roseborough;
      Well said Sir. We ALL need to make the decisions we need in life.
      80, very impressive, and probably a good life I’m guessing.
      I also do not prescribe to the Flu Shots for my own reasoning.
      BUT I sure wish like heck I had gotten the Shingles Shot, also I will be getting the pneumonia shot.

      Only one question remains…
      Is 600 rolls of TP really enough?

  46. So heres a thought.
    Was reading R. D. Roseborough’s comment and and the comment by Dennis up above that and got to thinking.

    Just going out on a limb,

    The globullist dont likr POTUS DJT, most of the other leaders dont like him either because he wants to bring everything back home. This is not good for them, the USA trade stuff has not been good for them either,

    The democRATs havent got a clue nor a candidate who can beat DJT though, just my opinion.
    The world can see this too. I mean that idgit Biden is just a hair over room temp IQ wise. And Bernie isnt much better.

    So just suppose for a moment that this is an elaborate, however not so well thought out plan to try and hurt DJT.

    Looking at it from that point brings into focus why the panic vs the regular flu, because as has been said its like a flu, not saying thats right or wrong, but just suppose the hype, lock downs etc, are precisely to cause the economy to crash and such to try and push DJT from office in Nov.

    Its going to backfire, but is an interesting possibility for sure. What better way to cause a panic and be able to blame it on POTUS than link some mystery bullzhit to all out chaos and to DJT,,,
    Just a thought.

    Enjoy the day folks!

    1. Kulafarmer,

      Good job of saying what I’ve been thinking. The United States, that shining beacon on the hill, the possessor of the only constitution guaranteeing unalienable rights, home of the greatest wealth and military might on the planet, is the only insurmountable obstacle to a global government and total subjugation of the masses. Their only chance of removing that obstacle is for the people to willingly give it up. We were well on our way to that end with Obama. Hillary was supposed to carry the ball across the goal line. Trump’s election shocked the world, and stopped their plan in it’s tracks. There has never been a leader hated by more “elites” in history.

      Would they intentionally turn an engineered virus loose to take control? Or, blow a serious and genuine health crisis out of proportion to reach that same goal? Does anyone actually believe these people give a rat’s rear end about the masses? Do they care if things run completely amok and millions needlessly suffer or die because of their ploy? Does anyone believe if all the freedom robbing declarations implemented that we will completely regain the freedoms lost in the aftermath?

      If anyone can answer these questions for me, then maybe, just maybe, I’ll join the world in focusing only on the COVID-19 virus.

      1. Dennis;
        I’m wondering if Hillary was President there would be a C-19 Pandemic?

        1. NRP,

          Great question. Health crisis, especially involving flu, occur with regularity and varying degrees of impact, throughout history. Is this crisis worthy of the response it’s receiving? I really can’t answer that question yet.

          Would our media blame Hillary or critique her responses so negatively like they have Trump? Absolutely not. If Hillary had been president, would it ever have made a bigger blip on the radar than the normal seasonal flus (numbers so far are far less than type-a and type-b making the rounds)? We won’t know the answer to that until this runs it’s course.

          What I do know? If this COVID-19 starts fizzling out as a world crisis, credit will be given to everyone except Trump. Getting it into control was in spite of him, not because of his actions. Immediate calls to reverse his “bring manufacturing back to America” efforts will erupt, because China has suffered too much already.

          Then again, I’m a septuagenarian, had heart by-pass surgery, and the beginning stages of COPD. The COVID-19 might attack me, and I’m living my last year on earth. Not exactly the ending I expected after the life I’ve lived. But……….that’s life.

        2. Dennis;
          Dude your wayyyyy to tough to let one of those little bugs get ya, so put that OUT of your head…..

          Tis all interesting speculation for sure….
          I did the math a cpl of days ago, figured with the drive I do each day, odds are I’m toast from Auto that the Virus, but hell, I though I was going to die from that FRIGGEN Shingles I have 7 months ago, and still have some issues from that.
          Heck, even worse, you know how many people are hit by Lightning each year on the Golf Course? BTW, God I love to HATE Golf HAHAHAHA

        3. NRP,

          Yep, I always figured I would go out with a grin on my face, and somebody’s bloody left ear in my right hand. Guess those days are gone.

        4. Dennis;
          Ahhhhh heck no, wait till the country runs out of JIT, or the Grid goes down cause nobody is working. You’ll get your chance… hehehe

          BTW, did ya see where NYShitty has just Quarantined a Suburb just outside NY?
          And here it starts.

          Just wait till San Fran gets the 100s of thousands of Homeless infected.

        5. Geez, you guys….what took you so long to arrive?

          Me and BJH have been keeping the lights on for you all. Keeps the boogies away, you know.

        6. NRP,

          You gotta love it. Fox News just showed a picture of National Guard troops in full hazmat gear, complete with head cover and respirators, wiping down the doors to a building. In the foreground was a news camera man in shirt sleeves and no protective gear at all filming them, not 10 feet away.

          90% of the sheep will completely miss the incongruity of that picture.

        7. Dennis
          I would like to intervene on your statement to NRP. Please check into the herbal ‘Lomatium’, believe it may assist you with the effects of the COPD.

          If we had known about it years ago would have gone a different route because of a certain medication. Which he has to take every day, it prevents him from using Lomatium orally, so to get around this restriction it is placed it in a diffuser.

      2. Dennis & Kula

        I posted something similar a couple weeks back. Just too many coincidences when this thing kicked off. Not saying the virus isn’t real. But now seeing the stupidity and absurdity of how the US agencies are handling this virus just makes me think it was all planned ahead of time.

        As far as TPTB/ Globalists killing a few hundred million people to achieve their goal is no big deal. I’m pretty sure they have done it before.


    2. Some are already calling it the “Trumpflu,” in an effort to do just this. When he locked down the borders they screamed, now they’re screaming because he didn’t? And the sheeple lap it up.

  47. I was just looking at quotes from Dr. Fauci’s testimony to Congress (House Oversight Comm) this morning:

    “Bottom line, it’s going to get worse,” Fauci said when asked for a prediction by committee chairwoman Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y.

    The National Institutes of Health’s official explained that this is due to what he called “community spread” and the difficulty in containing the virus.

    Fauci said that “although we are containing it in some respects, we keep getting people coming in from the country that are travel-related, we’ve seen that in many of the states that are now involved.” This, in addition to community spread, “makes the challenge much greater,” he said, adding, “So I can say we will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now.”

    “How much worse will get will depend on our ability to do two things: to contain the influx of people who are infected coming from the outside, and the ability to contain and mitigate within our own country,” he said.

    My thoughts:
    Since we are not stopping travel from much of Asia and most of Europe (where the numbers are getting worse by the day), how will we “contain the influx of people who are infected”? And since counties like Sacramento have already thrown in the towel on containment and have gone straight to mitigation, how much ability do we still have to “contain” at all? I’m going to go with “none”, but that’s just my opinion.

  48. A look down the road.

    If people get over this virus and have an immunity against re-infection, the entire country should not collapse. Shortages, yes. But that is why all should have prepped.

    About two weeks to a month should show us the direction this pandemic is taking.

    1. hermit us;
      It’s already been stated the Infected once “cured” can indeed be re-infected with C-19.

      1. NRP

        One doctor (Dr. Siegle sp?) said that the appearance of re-infections could only be the ebb and tide of usual characteristics of a viral infection. We can only wait and see.

        1. hermit us;
          Will not disagree.
          This is bad mojo no mater how one looks at it.
          Interestingly enough the “cases” in the US doubled in 48 hours.
          Ken’s Stadium is starting to fill for sure.

        2. NRP

          But fortunately, the death rate has not doubled. If you take away the retirement home deaths, the percentage is around 1% (I think I read correctly).

        3. NRP
          And don’t get me wrong, any deaths are terrible. Stay safe.

        4. hermit us;
          Even at 1% we need to remember the spread rate, so the rate doubled in 2 days, to over 1000.
          and there is (as of now) no known stopping this spread, how long will it be before Ken’s Stadium is 200million? at a 1% death rate = ohhhhh lets say 20,000, yes a lot less that many MANY other ways to die. but the Panic running ramped around the world, the Economy is going to completely implode.as will many aspects of life.
          Plus the way this is being politicized do we know where this will really head? As someone mentioned there go a LOT of the Constitution. How about if someone poses 90% of the cities Quarantined? Shutting down JIT or many other aspects of Person to Person contact, such as even going to the stores IF there is supplies still there?

          Just conservation here, not arguing at all.

        5. NRP

          No argument on anyone’s part, just discussions on an unfolding pandemic. Many are in panic mode, but us preppers should be able to get past that and take the necessary steps based on all the information (weeding out the BS) available to us.

        6. hermit us;
          OHHHH Crapo, I need to run to Wally and get some more TP….. NOW hehehe
          Maybe not so funny when ya realize that 93% of the US don’t have 3 days of food stored up.
          Just think of that city in NY that just got Quarantined.
          Right now one could flip the coin on which way this all is going.

        7. I think 1% of 200 million is actually 2 million. 20,000 would be .01%, or approximately equivalent to the seasonal flu.

      2. NRP, the “re-infection” might actually be a new infection with a different COVID type. Remember they have identified 2 types (I believe there are more) — type S and type L.

        1. Modern Throwback:
          I did not realize that, thank you for the clarification

        2. NRP, my bad….I should actually have said that’s something I am scratching my head on. I have not heard or read anything that indicates this. It’s a more logical scientific explanation than a re-infection w/ same virus in such a short lapse of time.

  49. “Apple Closes All Italian Stores, Trump Ponders National Emergency Declaration: Live Updates”

    It looks like the government is taking care of the drawbridge. One less decision for us to have to make.

    article at ZH

  50. Thought folks might be interested in this since we are on the verge, it seems, of experiencing it.

    State of Emergency v. Martial Law:

    Martial law is when the highest-ranking member of the military takes over leadership of the government and takes control all aspects of the executive, legislative, and judicial systems. A state of emergency, on the other hand, is when a state or federal government suspends certain constitutional freedoms to react to a disastrous situation.

    Reference: survivalchain.com/martial-law-vs-national-emergency/

    1. Joe c,

      Californians are stocking up on toilet paper in the face of coronavirus. Texans are stocking up on ammo to raid California’s toilet paper stock piles.

        1. Joe c:
          Ya gata find it first, and if ya do, could you let me know where… old fart here with bad memory & a lazy dog

        2. NRP
          Good geeze.
          Doesn’t Ole Blue have a TP tracking nose?
          He lives with the stuff.
          600/1200 rolls, really?

        3. JC
          I think ole Blue has gone TP blind in his sniffer from livin in the middle of it!

        4. Kula’
          Ole Blue, is Charmin Ass dizzy, overload.
          I suspect
          maybe Mr Whipple can help 4 Corners?

        1. – (Snort – giggle) a dempanic, of course! HAHAHAHAHA!!!

          (Sorry, All!)

          – Papa S.

  51. Okie dokie, Trump announces suspension of all flights from Europe effective Friday midnight for next 30 days (does not include United Kingdom). Wide ranging financial relief to small businesses affected. Suspension of tax payments w/o penalty or interest.

    Let them dem head explosions begin.

  52. Did he say all travel and products from Europe??? Thought he did!!

    1. @ Sunstate boy

      Nope, just people.

      Tweet (about 30 minutes ago): “Hoping to get the payroll tax cut approved by both Republicans and Democrats, and please remember, very important for all countries & businesses to know that trade will in no way be affected by the 30-day restriction on travel from Europe. The restriction stops people not goods.”

  53. – Well, I might have a bit more of a clue when my own red flag event/balloon going up might be. We had an incident today. In the small city where I work, we had a man fly in from Arizona today. After staying in the hotel last night, he convinced himself he must have been exposed to the Covid19 virus. Being in the health care field himself, he called the local Health Department and said, “Who do I need to go see and where?”

    The Health Department told him to go see us at my Urgent Care. Told him what tests they wanted us to run at our location, then they would follow up depending on what those results were. So, at 7:10 this morning, I was talking through a mask to a gentleman in his own mask who was worried that he had been exposed to the Novel Coronavirus. Fortunately for all concerned, it was only Type A Flu
    It doesn’t help to think that the local health department considers my no-longer-young behind to be ‘the place’ to send someone who might just have this. We are not the only urgent care facility in town. We have half-a-dozen free-standing emergency rooms.as well. Of course, we do have a good reputation, but…

    I’m thinking retirement is looking better and better.

    – Papa S.

  54. Dr Fauci is back on the hill testifying this morning. Grabbed this quick tidbit from this morning:

    • A top U.S. health official said the country is “not really geared” to conduct the amount of testing for the coronavirus that will be required as the virus continues to spread across the nation.

    A top U.S. official said the nation cannot process coronavirus tests as quickly, easily or in the same volume as other countries as the virus continues to spread across the U.S., and that’s “a failing.”

    “The system is not really geared to what we need right now, what you are asking for. That is a failing,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Thursday at a hearing on the nation’s preparedness for the outbreak.

    “The idea of anybody getting it easily the way people in other countries are doing it, we’re not set up for that. Do I think we should be? Yes. But we’re not,” Fauci testified.

    Well, that sounds like a pretty honest comment to me. So how many people are waiting to be tested? And how about the person who hopped on a plane from NY to FL, even though he had been called (before he and his wife got on the plane) and was told he tested positive. Some people are incredibly selfish and irresponsible.

  55. By way of family, I received an email from a physician who has a top position in public health in New York City. She used her official business email, and composed the email for her family. She encouraged her family to please share it because our own preventative measures and knowledge may help reduce the spread of the coronavirus.

    Dated March 6, 2020 (name and corporation withheld)

    I’ve held back pretty well from writing anything on this global public health emergency through these last two weeks as more and more clarity has been received about COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus abbreviated as SARS-CoV-2. There continues to be insufficient worldwide and US data, but based on watching it carefully, reading what is being put out by CDC and NYC DOHMH, and the WHO, it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April 2020. WHO indicated today that if countries act aggressively to find, isolate and treat cases, and to trace every contact, the trajectory of this epidemic can be changed. That is the hopeful news!

    It’s worthwhile to focus on personal protection that each of us can do to protect ourselves and our family, and contribute to this change in the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory .

    Use the following as a guide for your own personal protection through this global health emergency:

    NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, wave, etc. (even during sign of peace in Mass).

    Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.

    Open doors with your closed fist or hip – do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.

    Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.
    Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.

    Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home’s entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can’t immediately wash your hands.

    If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. NOTE: The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!

    Use Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.

    Use disposable surgical masks to prevent you from touching your own nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth – it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

    Use alcohol-based (> 60% alcohol to be effective) hand sanitizers.

    Stock up now with zinc lozenges. Zinc has been clinically proven to be effective in blocking viruses from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY “cold-like” symptoms beginning.

    Here was an interesting tidbit, about coronaviruses — This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This is the only way this virus can infect you – it is lung-specific. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average – everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs, which is why the main clinical complication is severe respiratory compromise.) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

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