Dramatic Spike In Current Solar Cycle
December 26, 2011, Submitted by: Ken Tweet
All it takes is one X20+ Solar Flare to ruin your life. The progression of Solar cycle 24 has shown a dramatic increase in flare activity above the predicted levels through November (the latest data available), and if it continues, could shatter the ‘low’ peak levels that have been predicted for 2012 / 2013. Time will tell.
The NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder Colorado has posted data which shows ‘smoothed’ predicted values that have increased by 238 percent in the span of less than one month as indicated in the highlighted portion of the graph shown here.
The current 11-year solar cycle, due to peak within a year, has already produced a large X6.9 solar flare during August 2011, and will no doubt fire off more during the year ahead.
NASA’s Solar Dynamic Observatory platform (SDO), launched during February 2010, has been revealing dramatic imagery from the Sun as it roils with sunspots, flares, and eruptions, and has provided dramatic insight into the going’s on of the massive nuclear furnace.
Whether or not the current solar cycle maintains predicted levels or much higher than predicted levels, the chances of an extreme solar flare event remain. Scientists have zero doubt that the sun ‘regularly’ unleashes massive flares similar in strength to that of the 1859 ‘Carrington Event’ flare, an event so powerful that if it had occurred today would likely wipe out our modern way of life, potentially leading to tens of millions (or more) fatalities given our reliance and dependance upon technology and just-in-time deliveries.
Although there is nothing that we can do to prevent such an occurrence from the sun, we could choose to better ‘harden’ our electrical power grids and build an adequate number of spare EHV and other high-capacity transformers. The truth is though, that there is no political and economic will to do so, and we will remain at the mercy of our fiery sun while at the same time our lives continue to become more and more dependent upon technology and the efficiencies that it brings to our dependent lives.
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A really good idea for anyone to do is to check daily on what the sun is doing, such as on http://www.spaceweather.com Believe it or not the sun can often look like it is going to erupt a super flare and there is the possibility of having some advanced warning. I personally check the volcano and earthquake sites more than once daily to see if I personally see any pattern. I agree it is kind of a long shot, but sometimes there are signs of an impending disaster. The sun for one is more transparent and you can kind of tell when something is brewing like the building of an Earthly thunderstorm.
If I was going to try to forewarn anybody about a super flare I would look of course at an area that is rotating towards an Earth facing blow, in the eastern limb of the sun. I would look for a type of conglomeration of smaller areas of disturbance that were building towards a center point. Size is important but not necessary as I would also look for what I call a high intesity area, especially an area that looks more fierce and turbulent that you have ever since. Like earthquakes I would look for an area that continues to grown in intensity, like X type flares, a X2, then a X5, then X7, so on. I would fimiliarize myself by daily observance of the sun on these web sites with the visual perception of what the sun looks like each day so you can see any variations that occur.
Like the theme of this site, if you prepare for one disaster you will be prepared for others that will all happen some day. Be prepared today for the awful situations of tomorrow.
It looks a bit like solar activity and stocks have some connection and this article touches on it. http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/are_traders_really_just_driven_by_the_sun/
Long-term seems to be almost opposite as we often run into problems before and after sunspots peaks if I remember right. Iben Browning pointed out the earth’s tidal peak may have something to do with it. The tidal peak was before the solar peak from 1809 to 1928 and then began lagging. There is something like an 11.4-year cycle of negative economic and stock market reactions. 1861.0, 1872.4, 1883.8, 1895.2, 1906.6, 1918.0, 1929.4, 1940.8, 1952.2, 1963.6, 1975.0, 1986.4, 1997.8, 2009.2, 2020.6, 2032.0. Those dates get close to the alignment dates of Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and the Sun… 1904.4, 1916.3, 1928.2, 1940.0, 1951.9, 1963.7, 1975.6, 1987.5, 1999.3, 2011.2, 2023.1, 2034.9. The tidal pressure shift might have something to do with how our problems coincide. The cycle people say there’s even a 170-year civil war cycle, so makes you wonder about what kind of problems might be taking place between now and 2030.
@ Craig. This makes sense since the solar activity controls the weather and climate down here on the planet. Stock markets are driven by crop success and failures. So solar weather would affect the economies of the world in regards to agriculture.
Browning showed how all the major migrations in human history have to do with changes in growing conditions. Said the ramped up tidal pressure acts as a trigger for volcanoes. At sunspot peaks coupled with high tidal pressure, you can get a maximum differential between the warming equatorial region and the cooling polar area. When these two extremes meet, it just whips the jet stream all over the place. Not exactly the kind of thing farmers want to deal with for sure. The best thing about the US is farmers adjust very quickly and most of the country is in the temperate zone. That’s not the case for much of Europe. Seems to be some sort of ying-yang where the southern hemisphere does well when the northern is having problems and vice versa. One time I looked through the NY Times of the 1930s. It was full of South American and Cuban news. Maybe it’s just that the focus changed or maybe it’s a cyclical thing.
Short lived
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/04/solar-cycle-update-sunspots-down-ap-index-way-down/
Yes indeed, our fickle sun…